The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[TehDoak]

Happened with OEL so the Yotes got hit with whatever the Retained Salary % was for the dead cap of the length of the buyout.

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So that makes the math a LITTLE easier.

Essentially, Tavares is owed 8M on 11M cap space.

A buyout of Skinner is 15M.
So if Buffalo retained lets say 20%,

the leafs are paying 12M in cash with cap space spread over 6 years.

We'd be paying out 11M with all of it done in 1 year and with around 12M in total cap

And 20% of this:

Jeff Skinner Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Jeff Skinner buyout results and details including cost calculations, savings and final cap hit

www.capfriendly.com

Which, would be minimal. If we agreed to buyout Tavares upon trade, likely NMCs don't matter.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I worded that poorly, I apologize, what I meant was that the few instances that follow the perceived scoring model are usually players that enter the league as teenagers. the Crosby's and Ovechkins, and their declines at earlier ages are often due to injuries, as they have a lot of miles on their bodies at a young age.



What I am saying is that the statement that player's scoring peaks in their early 20s is not statistically a thing. I believe it is data manipulation, as they are including the D and bottom six players that typically enter the league at 25+ into the equation and the snapshot of scoring by age drops dramatically due to the faulty science behind the data collection,

Let's look at any random sample. Let's take the remaining playoff teams and look at their top 5 players top scoring years(PPG - not total points due to missed time and shortened seasons). (I will exclude players 23 and younger because we can not know how they are going to score at 25, 26, 27+ etc yet.

Player - Top scoring age year
Carolina
Aho - 26 (so far, he is only 26)
Teravainen - 24
Skjei - 30
Burns - 33
Noesn - 31
Boston
Pastrnak - 26
Marchand 30
Coyle - 31
Zacha - 27
Debrusk - 26
MacAvoy - 24 (but he is only 26 and has started each of the past two seasons injured, and his point totals are not far off that 24 season)
Florida
Reinhart - 28
Tkachuk - 25
Barkov - 23 (came in as an 18 year old and got injured at 24 - this is what I was referring to above)
Verhaeghe - 27
Bennett - 25
Rangers
Panarin - 32
Trocheck - 30
Kreider - 31
Zibanejad - 30
Fox - 26 (this year he is 26 and has his highest PPG number, but missed some time with injury.)

Would you like me to continue with the west? It's the same story. Mackinnon -28, Rantannen -26, Druoin -29, Nichuskin -29, McDavid -26, Hintz - 26, Draisaitl -27, Nugent-Hopkins -30, Pavelski - 37, Duchene - 30.

Take any team in the league. Look at the roster up and down. Look at all the players top scoring years, and you are going to find very few who peaked by 23. It just is not a thing, and I can not for the life of me figure out how these folks came to their conclussions. It has to be measuring points scored by age league-wide, and the 25 age range drops off as a whole when looking at the entire league because that is the age D and bottom six defensive players typically become fulltime players in the league (on average) and their data joins the datapool.

Because it's an aggregate of a players % of points compared to their top scoring year. And it seems that if you compare a players earlier seasons they're more apt to be near their career heights. Even if their individual height wasn't that year.

 

[Gras]

So that makes the math a LITTLE easier.

Essentially, Tavares is owed 8M on 11M cap space.

A buyout of Skinner is 15M.
So if Buffalo retained lets say 20%,

the leafs are paying 12M in cash with cap space spread over 6 years.

We'd be paying out 11M with all of it done in 1 year and with around 12M in total cap

And 20% of this:

Jeff Skinner Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Jeff Skinner buyout results and details including cost calculations, savings and final cap hit

www.capfriendly.com

Which, would be minimal. If we agreed to buyout Tavares upon trade, likely NMCs don't matter.

It does kill one of your 3 retention slots for the length of the buyout though not just the length of the original contract.

Tavares buyout would also carry a 10.4m Cap hit for next season and 300k the following year

 

[Diaspora]

Re: Tavares/Skinner

The only reason this COULD make some sense is that the buyout of Skinner is 15M over 6 years and the buyout of Tavares is like a 10M dead cap.

We'd likely have to retain salary and I don't know what happens if we retain and then they buyout.

Skinner's buyout:

	Cap Hit	50%
24-25	$1.4M	$700K
25-26	$2.4m	$1.2
26-27	$6.4M	$3.2
27-28	$2.4M	$1.2
28-29	$2.4M	$1.2
29-30	$2.4M	$1.2

Skinner 50% retained for Tavares makes a lot of sense for both teams.

With a buyout, Leafs save $10.3M in cap this year and relatively low cap penalties for five years.

Sabres get Tavares for 24-25 at $11M. Maybe he fits with the team. Maybe trade him at the deadline for an asset. They save $7.8M in Year 2 and $5.8M in Year 3. Cap penalty of $1.2M for three following years is negligible.

It's good for both the Sabres and Leafs. It's good for the rivalry, too.

Skinner doesn't have a choice in the matter (except who to sign with as a UFA).

Tavares says no.

 

[TehDoak]

It does kill one of your 3 retention slots for the length of the buyout though not just the length of the original contract.

I doubt that'll be an issue.

 

[Gras]

Skinner's buyout:

	Cap Hit	50%
24-25	$1.4M	$700K
25-26	$2.4m	$1.2
26-27	$6.4M	$3.2
27-28	$2.4M	$1.2
28-29	$2.4M	$1.2
29-30	$2.4M	$1.2

Skinner 50% retained for Tavares makes a lot of sense for both teams.

With a buyout, Leafs save $10.3M in cap this year and relatively low cap penalties for five years.

Sabres get Tavares for 24-25 at $11M. Maybe he fits with the team. Maybe trade him at the deadline for an asset. They save $7.8M in Year 2 and $5.8M in Year 3. Cap penalty of $1.2M for three following years is negligible.

It's good for both the Sabres and Leafs. It's good for the rivalry, too.

Skinner doesn't have a choice in the matter (except who to sign with as a UFA).

Tavares says no.

I don't think they would buy him out right away though, he could be useful should they also trade Marner away.

 

[Diaspora]

I don't think they would buy him out right away though, he could be useful should they also trade Marner away.

That would be their business, but it would be better for us if they did.

Edit: But Tavares says no

 

[Irie]

Because it's an aggregate of a players % of points compared to their top scoring year. And it seems that if you compare a players earlier seasons they're more apt to be near their career heights. Even if their individual height wasn't that year.

The argument was that players peak in their early 20s.

The majority of guys that come into the NHL do so with PPG+ scoring prowess in Junior hockey on their resume. To stay in the NHL, they reinvent themselves to fill defensive roles, or they end up out of the league. They come in with hopes of being PPG superstars, but reality sets in and they change their playstyle because there are only so many top six slots available in the NHL, and if you don't adapt, you are left out.

Players aren't becoming worse hockey players from the age of 22 to 27. They are (on the average) getting stronger and smarter and have better overall skills and are far more complete players(evidence in successful playoff tems being full of older vets), but their roles change, and so does their point totals in those roles.

If you look at the raw data, a huge percentage of NHL players are not regular NHL players until they are 25 or 26 (because they were not good enough hockey players at the ages 20-24 to play in the NHL).

The problem has always been about trying to read numbers outside of a very influential context, and trying to draw faulty conclusions without looking at the underlying factors of "Why", and just looking at the raw data. They look at a player like Conor Sheary and see his PPG totals go from nearly a PPG to well less than half a PPG and chalk it up to old age as he turns from 25 to 26, and completely ignore the linemates (crosby most freguent at 25, Riley Sheahan most frequent at 26) and usage(top six vs bottom six). Sheary's story is a common one for mid 20's nhl players. Young offensive guys are sheltered and get offensive deployment, and unless they eventually make the jump to star player, they are replaced by younger high potential players in their roles and adapt to a bottom six role or they fall out of the league.

 

[Beerz]

And our 1st round pick? Why would Toronto take the salary without getting something out of it?

Anyone who takes Skinner's contract is gonna want a 1st round pick.

Of course I would trade Skinner for Tavares straight up but Toronto isn't going to.

You don't have to give a 1st round pick to trade Skinner. He is overpaid yes... but retain money on him and a team gets him for 5 or 6 million he doesn't have negative value.

Would Toronto do it? Probably not but other teams may.
....

 

[Beerz]

Skinner's buyout:

	Cap Hit	50%
24-25	$1.4M	$700K
25-26	$2.4m	$1.2
26-27	$6.4M	$3.2
27-28	$2.4M	$1.2
28-29	$2.4M	$1.2
29-30	$2.4M	$1.2

Skinner 50% retained for Tavares makes a lot of sense for both teams.

With a buyout, Leafs save $10.3M in cap this year and relatively low cap penalties for five years.

Sabres get Tavares for 24-25 at $11M. Maybe he fits with the team. Maybe trade him at the deadline for an asset. They save $7.8M in Year 2 and $5.8M in Year 3. Cap penalty of $1.2M for three following years is negligible.

It's good for both the Sabres and Leafs. It's good for the rivalry, too.

Skinner doesn't have a choice in the matter (except who to sign with as a UFA).

Tavares says no.

What do you mean Skinner doesn't have a choice?

You have to trade them before they are bought out so the NMC will still be in play

 

[Diaspora]

What do you mean Skinner doesn't have a choice?

You have to trade them before they are bought out so the NMC will still be in play

Good point.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

As I look at the roster going forward, I think we are young, which doesn't help with winning but that doesn't mean our guys lack skill. With Ruff coming in, we now know this team will have a structure, a game plan, accountability, etc. Love him or hate the choice, Ruff is a bona fide NHL coach. This is going to be a different team next year, and with Pegs signing off on firing Donato, hopefully he's going to switch gears with the Sabres purse strings. I think he will, at least for my plan.

Couple notes about the roster.

The player I am most excited about: Jack Quinn. I'm not sure about stylistic wise but I think of him as Passternick from Boston. I'm not going to be surprised at all if he pots 50....soon. I think he's got the best skill set on the team. He's only been with us in spurts because of injury but his flashes of skill and finishing are elite.

JJ and Benson...young and skilled, and are just scratching their potential. I'd also point out I feel the same about Cozens, he's so young himself.

Tage, Cozens, Tuch, Quin, JJ, Benson & Greenway.....and I'm just going to list Skinner as our 13th forward going forward because teams that want to get rid of a player....do. We'll Olofsson him next year. That gives us 7 forwards, Greenway is the only real banger of the bunch.

Players not coming back: Comrie, Rousek (15th forward call up...not worrying about waivers at all), Jost, Robinson, Olofsson, Girgensons and.....Krebs. Krebs has had numerous chances and he just doesn't show enough flashes to pass even my eye test but he should have SOME trade value.

Players/Picks available for trade: Barring a lottery win, pick #11 as well as next years first. 2nd, 3rds, 4th, etc.....I'd also like the option of flipping a pick with another team....our 11th for said player and your 26th pick. Krebs and Rosen are my first choice to trade. The other Savoie, Kulich and the others should not be required to make the trades I'd like to.

I have 7 forwards so I'm looking for 5 more, maybe one comes from within.

My Targets:

1. Sam Bennett 6'1" 195 signed for 1 more year @ $4.425
2. Nco Sturm 6'3" 209 signed for 1 more year @ $2.0
3. Alex Iafallo 6'0" 200 signed for 1 more year @ $4.0

These are not "high profile" moves. These are guys who can slot up and down the lineup to balance our roster out. The Panthers have Reinhart, Montour and Lundell to sign this offseason, The right offer, they'll need some room. As for the other 2, it shouldn't be that hard. All 3 are at least listed as "centers."

I have to think our 1st would be involved for Bennett.

As far as the other two spots, I actually wouldn't be upset with Domi. He's become kind of a tough plug. Add in a Carrier or two and our team is changed top to bottom:

Iaffalo - Tage - Tuch
JJ - Bennett - Quinn
Benson - Cozens - Domi (listed as LW)
Greenway - Sturm - XXX

As of right now we're about $20 mil under the cap...the 3 use up $10.425 of that. Sign a couple free agents, and a dman...easily workable.

Our team lacks an identity. We've got plenty of skill. Give Ruff that team, we're winning more than we're loosing.

 

[Matt Ress]

As I look at the roster going forward, I think we are young, which doesn't help with winning but that doesn't mean our guys lack skill. With Ruff coming in, we now know this team will have a structure, a game plan, accountability, etc. Love him or hate the choice, Ruff is a bona fide NHL coach. This is going to be a different team next year, and with Pegs signing off on firing Donato, hopefully he's going to switch gears with the Sabres purse strings. I think he will, at least for my plan.

Couple notes about the roster.

The player I am most excited about: Jack Quinn. I'm not sure about stylistic wise but I think of him as Passternick from Boston. I'm not going to be surprised at all if he pots 50....soon. I think he's got the best skill set on the team. He's only been with us in spurts because of injury but his flashes of skill and finishing are elite.

JJ and Benson...young and skilled, and are just scratching their potential. I'd also point out I feel the same about Cozens, he's so young himself.

Tage, Cozens, Tuch, Quin, JJ, Benson & Greenway.....and I'm just going to list Skinner as our 13th forward going forward because teams that want to get rid of a player....do. We'll Olofsson him next year. That gives us 7 forwards, Greenway is the only real banger of the bunch.

Players not coming back: Comrie, Rousek (15th forward call up...not worrying about waivers at all), Jost, Robinson, Olofsson, Girgensons and.....Krebs. Krebs has had numerous chances and he just doesn't show enough flashes to pass even my eye test but he should have SOME trade value.

Players/Picks available for trade: Barring a lottery win, pick #11 as well as next years first. 2nd, 3rds, 4th, etc.....I'd also like the option of flipping a pick with another team....our 11th for said player and your 26th pick. Krebs and Rosen are my first choice to trade. The other Savoie, Kulich and the others should not be required to make the trades I'd like to.

I have 7 forwards so I'm looking for 5 more, maybe one comes from within.

My Targets:

1. Sam Bennett 6'1" 195 signed for 1 more year @ $4.425
2. Nco Sturm 6'3" 209 signed for 1 more year @ $2.0
3. Alex Iafallo 6'0" 200 signed for 1 more year @ $4.0

These are not "high profile" moves. These are guys who can slot up and down the lineup to balance our roster out. The Panthers have Reinhart, Montour and Lundell to sign this offseason, The right offer, they'll need some room. As for the other 2, it shouldn't be that hard. All 3 are at least listed as "centers."

I have to think our 1st would be involved for Bennett.

As far as the other two spots, I actually wouldn't be upset with Domi. He's become kind of a tough plug. Add in a Carrier or two and our team is changed top to bottom:

Iaffalo - Tage - Tuch
JJ - Bennett - Quinn
Benson - Cozens - Domi (listed as LW)
Greenway - Sturm - XXX

As of right now we're about $20 mil under the cap...the 3 use up $10.425 of that. Sign a couple free agents, and a dman...easily workable.

Our team lacks an identity. We've got plenty of skill. Give Ruff that team, we're winning more than we're loosing.

Jesus. I hope we don't give up 11OA for 1 year of Bennett.

I like the players. No diggity. I'm guessing they go out and get definitive bottom 6ers aside from the maybe 1 top6F. I guess you never know with Lindy because you can count on him to mix up the lineup after any loss.

 

[TehDoak]

What do you mean Skinner doesn't have a choice?

You have to trade them before they are bought out so the NMC will still be in play

A buyout would likely net him more cash and let him choose where to play. He’d get 15 out of 22M left in his deal. Then he’d likely get more than 7 M over the next 3 years.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The argument was that players peak in their early 20s.

The majority of guys that come into the NHL do so with PPG+ scoring prowess in Junior hockey on their resume. To stay in the NHL, they reinvent themselves to fill defensive roles, or they end up out of the league. They come in with hopes of being PPG superstars, but reality sets in and they change their playstyle because there are only so many top six slots available in the NHL, and if you don't adapt, you are left out.

Players aren't becoming worse hockey players from the age of 22 to 27. They are (on the average) getting stronger and smarter and have better overall skills and are far more complete players(evidence in successful playoff tems being full of older vets), but their roles change, and so does their point totals in those roles.

If you look at the raw data, a huge percentage of NHL players are not regular NHL players until they are 25 or 26 (because they were not good enough hockey players at the ages 20-24 to play in the NHL).

The problem has always been about trying to read numbers outside of a very influential context, and trying to draw faulty conclusions without looking at the underlying factors of "Why", and just looking at the raw data. They look at a player like Conor Sheary and see his PPG totals go from nearly a PPG to well less than half a PPG and chalk it up to old age as he turns from 25 to 26, and completely ignore the linemates (crosby most freguent at 25, Riley Sheahan most frequent at 26) and usage(top six vs bottom six). Sheary's story is a common one for mid 20's nhl players. Young offensive guys are sheltered and get offensive deployment, and unless they eventually make the jump to star player, they are replaced by younger high potential players in their roles and adapt to a bottom six role or they fall out of the league.

All of that is fine, again what the curve shows is the % of a player's points by age. And the curve shows that it's not divorced from reality to say players do better younger than people generally give credit for. As I said originally, it might not be right, but it's not bonkers.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Jesus. I hope we don't give up 11OA for 1 year of Bennett.

I like the players. No diggity. I'm guessing they go out and get definitive bottom 6ers aside from the maybe 1 top6F. I guess you never know with Lindy because you can count on him to mix up the lineup after any loss.

LOVED that you said this! Chuckled when I read it. Bring it back!

 

[truthbluth]

Anybody interested in a Nik Ehlers? He's apparently the whipping boy du jour in Winnipeg for vanishing in the playoffs. I would love to have a player that vanishes in the playoffs. It means we're in the playoffs. The guy is an absolute stud in the regular season. Only one year under contract, so you have to see if he'd be willing to sign an extension.

 

[Jim Bob]

Anybody interested in a Nik Ehlers? He's apparently the whipping boy du jour in Winnipeg for vanishing in the playoffs. I would love to have a player that vanishes in the playoffs. It means we're in the playoffs. The guy is an absolute stud in the regular season. Only one year under contract, so you have to see if he'd be willing to sign an extension.

The first question is would Ehlers have any interest in playing in Buffalo given that he has a 10 team no trade list?

Then it's all about what would be worth giving up for a guy that is a year away from UFA and likely wants a nice bump over his $6M AAV deal he is currently on.

I like the player. I just have doubts about whether he would want to be here and if he would be worth a trade package and extension.

 

[Aladyyn]

Would love Ehlers, not sure how the roster works out if Skinner is still here though (and I'm not giving up our young roster wingers for a 1-year rental)

 

[Chainshot]

Anybody interested in a Nik Ehlers? He's apparently the whipping boy du jour in Winnipeg for vanishing in the playoffs. I would love to have a player that vanishes in the playoffs. It means we're in the playoffs. The guy is an absolute stud in the regular season. Only one year under contract, so you have to see if he'd be willing to sign an extension.

Eh, there is a lot to not like about Ehlers in the post-season that was nothing to do with linemates or usage but about Ehlers. Proceed cautiously.

The first question is would Ehlers have any interest in playing in Buffalo given that he has a 10 team no trade list?

The first question is "does he fit with what the Sabres want to do on the ice". THEN ask if he has them on his NTC.

Then it's all about what would be worth giving up for a guy that is a year away from UFA and likely wants a nice bump over his $6M AAV deal he is currently on.

I like the player. I just have doubts about whether he would want to be here and if he would be worth a trade package and extension.

Again, he's a 60-point guy who has had a hard time finding linemates to work with his chaos in Winnipeg. Is that someone they should be trying to work into a lineup that already features other small, offensively geared, non-contact wingers?

Would love Ehlers, not sure how the roster works out if Skinner is still here though (and I'm not giving up our young roster wingers for a 1-year rental)

How much of what he does is already something they have in-house though?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

How much of what he does is already something they have in-house though?

All of your points are worth noting but this one especially stood out to me. Our problem isn't a lack of "Ehlers" type guys -- it's a role that we have covered since it's among the Adams administration's favorite player types.

We've all been saying for years that we need a more balanced roster, and this does the opposite of that. No thanks.

 

[Gabrielor]

How much of what he does is already something they have in-house though?

That's my beef with Ehlers. With what he'll cost, they have bigger needs to fill.

 

[Gabrielor]

The most important thing of this off season by a mile is to create a matchup line to counter other team's best scorers.

However you want to do that.

 

[Chainshot]

All of your points are worth noting but this one especially stood out to me. Our problem isn't a lack of "Ehlers" type guys -- it's a role that we have covered since it's among the Adams administration's favorite player types.

We've all been saying for years that we need a more balanced roster, and this does the opposite of that. No thanks.

If they didn't already have Peterka/Quinn up and then the sea of smallish guys in the depth chart starting with Rosen whose most frequent comp since draft day is Ehlers, sure. I just can't see the path with Skinner on the team and the Ehler wannabes waiting in the wings to make that move.

Now, if say Skinner is gone and they decide to create some sort of matchup issue line where they are going to have a speed component rather than checking or physical play, maybe he would be a piece to something like that. I'm certainly not set on the idea of any of their returning top 6 being always together - Benson did good things for Cozens late, though Cozens also seemed to get himself moving. Peterka gave Thompson's line a missing element to back defenders off and create space behind him that Skinner's lack of quickness doesn't provide now. But then what is it that they want out of the next line over the boards? Ehlers-Krebs-____? And then of course what line is flipping the zone from d-to-o or creating forecheck?

Ehlers looks like he'd be a smart pickup for a team that knows what it is doing and that already has players in place to handle specific roles. I find it hard to imagine him coming to Buffalo with say Krebs and Skinner as his linemates and that being a line that would do things other than promote hair loss.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

If they didn't already have Peterka/Quinn up and then the sea of smallish guys in the depth chart starting with Rosen whose most frequent comp since draft day is Ehlers, sure. I just can't see the path with Skinner on the team and the Ehler wannabes waiting in the wings to make that move.

Now, if say Skinner is gone and they decide to create some sort of matchup issue line where they are going to have a speed component rather than checking or physical play, maybe he would be a piece to something like that. I'm certainly not set on the idea of any of their returning top 6 being always together - Benson did good things for Cozens late, though Cozens also seemed to get himself moving. Peterka gave Thompson's line a missing element to back defenders off and create space behind him that Skinner's lack of quickness doesn't provide now. But then what is it that they want out of the next line over the boards? Ehlers-Krebs-____? And then of course what line is flipping the zone from d-to-o or creating forecheck?

Ehlers looks like he'd be a smart pickup for a team that knows what it is doing and that already has players in place to handle specific roles. I find it hard to imagine him coming to Buffalo with say Krebs and Skinner as his linemates and that being a line that would do things other than promote hair loss.

I have a hard time coming up with targets or playing with lines until we get our matchup center.

Who is he, how far up the lineup will he be able to play, and what's his AAV and contract duration? Can we possibly get TWO bottom 6 centers?

Once these questions are answered, then we can start worrying about wingers. But I want to save cap space and trade assets for center, first and foremost, and then work with what's left to bring in a top 6 winger and bottom 6 winger.