The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[SnuggaRUDE]

I do not believe the data collection is based on their best years. This guy is comparing 2 years across a huge scope of players and see what the rise or drop in WAR is and concludes that 22 to 23 is the last positive development year and that 23 is the peak for NHL players in his opening chart.

Here is the thing. The muckers and grinder, the low scoring defensive energy forwards and defensemen quite often don't become fulltime NHL players until they are 24 or 25, at which point their addition to the datapool and inclusion shifts the stats away from the high scoring top 6 players that have been in the league since they were teens, changing what we are annalyzing completely. We are starting to measure apples to oranges at that point.

Wins above replacement in these charts say that 23 is the peak age for hockey players, yet the most competitive teams often don't have a single player that young on their roster.

The eye test nearly always is going to tell you that the 27 year old is way more effective on ice than the 22 year old, yet this chart says otherwise, because well, WAR.

Let's look at a handfull of players that have been coveted in this thread recently because people view them as players that can help the Sabres win:

Haula. Entered the league at 25. Best season at 26-27 years old.
Coleman. Entered the league at 25. Best season at 32-33 followed closely by his 27-28 season.
Gourde. First fulltime season at 26. Best season at 27-28 years old.
Carrier. A coupe of half seasons, not a fulltime player before he turned 24. Best season at 25-26.
Colton. Entered the league at 25. Best season at 27.
Cousins Entered the league at 23. Best season(tied) 25-26 and 29-30.
Trenin Entered the league at 23, best season(tied) 24-25 and 25-26.

This trend holds true to the majority of players that aren't in the league as teenagers. The kids that follow the curve in the chart are typically high top ten draft picks that make the league at 18 or 19, are highly sheltered, and not asked to play D. No one is peaking at 23 in the real world (Which is when early 20s ends).

If we look at defensemen, the majority of them won't even qualify for the curves prerequisites before they are 23.

I agree with a lot of things you post, but these charts with their data that flies in the face of reality are really out of touch with the true development curves of players because they skew data and ignore context. They are extremely faulty.

You're looking a very specific subgroup of 'all players'; this data isn't just defensive forwards. If you want to suggest defensive forwards peak later you may well be correct.

I've no idea why you bring up teenagers, very few play in the NHL as teenagers.

All the teams in the quarterfinals have at least one <23 player, with the exception of Colorado.

We got here when I objected to the characterization thinking players peak younger than commonly believed isn't completely divorced from reality. It might be wrong, but it's not a completely unsupported position.

 

[Gras]

Re: a Skinner buyout.

The value in waiting a year is you have one less year of him taking up some cap space. The benefit of a buyout this year is the approximately $7.5 million in space you get now.

I think it is debatable which makes more sense. Since there is almost no short term benefit in waiting, and given how critical this season is, I would lean towards it making more sense to buy him out now.

We dont need the space this year, next year is when more expensive extensions need to be signed. 23mil is plenty to fill out the roster and sign the RFAs that need raises.

 

[Irie]

You're looking a very specific subgroup of 'all players'; this data isn't just defensive forwards. If you want to suggest defensive forwards peak later you may well be correct.

If the data was annalyzed and broken down between top six forwwards, bottom six forwards, and D, it would at least be a little more accurate, because the groupings historically enter the league at different age ranges.

I've no idea why you bring up teenagers, very few play in the NHL as teenagers.

The players that come in to the league as teanagers tend to have their statistical peaks earlier. That is why I brought it up. And as you said, very few players come into the league as teenagers.

All the teams in the quarterfinals have at least one <23 player, with the exception of Colorado.

At least one is not what would be expected if players peak at 23.

We got here when I objected to the characterization thinking players peak younger than commonly believed isn't completely divorced from reality. It might be wrong, but it's not a completely unsupported position.

The thing is, all players development curves are different and unique to them and only them. These charts that suggest that players peak in their early 20s is not supported by the overwhelming factual numbers of player career statistics. It requires some questionable data manipulation to get where this guy goes with his findings.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don’t think you can act in a narrative style way. Eg: people get better when they leave here are better.

Nor can you run a team based on the Eichel experience.

That kills potential solutions for really no reason at all.

There’s leadership on the team with Dahlin, Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, etc.

There is not proven quality NHL leadership on this roster. If there were, then the narrative at locker clean out day would not have been that they need accountability. The leadership in the room would have held people accountable and to a higher standard than they obviously did.

And if you listen to Brady and others at Ottawa's locker clean out day, I don't get the feeling that Brady is a great leader of men that drags his teammates kicking and screaming to better things.

I am not basing this on Eichel alone. It is the experience for the past decade plus and how they have not surrounding the young players with the right type of veteran leaders that this team needs. I think spending a ton of trade assets for a guy that turns 25yo later this year and has been pressed into leadership too soon and with a similar lack of quality veteran leadership support is not the kind of move that I would be really high on working out well.

I think the priority needs to be adding veterans with real winning resumes and not another talented young player who has no experience of winning in the NHL.

 

[Archie Lee]

We dont need the space this year, next year is when more expensive extensions need to be signed. 23mil is plenty to fill out the roster and sign the RFAs that need raises.

$23 million for 12 vacant roster spots. Maybe under $19 million for 11 spots after they sign Luukkonen. An NHL team that is serious about doing whatever is needed to make the playoffs this season, would seize the opportunity to have an extra $7.5 in space and to more dramatically remake the roster.

Also, Skinner’s cap hit for the next two seasons after 24/25, is nearly the same if you buy him out now or a year from now.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I'd be curious if there are charts comparing his play with games on his off-side vs natural because his play seemed to improve when he got to play RD full time.

Early in the season his worst screw ups were on the right side. He did improve eventually but I'm not sold it was just an off-hand issue. I'm going to have faith that most of the D-corps can/will look better under Ruff though (if only because of better support from the FWs).

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If the data was annalyzed and broken down between top six forwwards, bottom six forwards, and D, it would at least be a little more accurate, because the groupings historically enter the league at different age ranges.


The players that come in to the league as teanagers tend to have their statistical peaks earlier. That is why I brought it up. And as you said, very few players come into the league as teenagers.


At least one is not what would be expected if players peak at 23.


The thing is, all players development curves are different and unique to them and only them. These charts that suggest that players peak in their early 20s is not supported by the overwhelming factual numbers of player career statistics. It requires some questionable data manipulation to get where this guy goes with his findings.

Can you site the bolded?

That final paragraph makes very little sense. If you truly believe there's no way or point to take a look at thousands of players and make generalizations I don't know what to say. I find that profoundly myopic. It's certainly appears supported by 'overwhelming factual.. career statistics' that players score more points earlier in their career than later. There was no data manipulation in compiling raw scoring totals.

I'd be curious if there are charts comparing his play with games on his off-side vs natural because his play seemed to improve when he got to play RD full time.

I wasn't suggesting buffalo should trade Clifton. Rather that Clifton for a 3rd was almost plausible compared to the bat shit insanity that comprised the rest of 'chaotic plan'.

 

[TehDoak]

You gonna share?

1. Please ask why the Sabres opted to use LTIR to get over the cap floor rather than veterans and if the lack of veteran presence has helped or hurt the sabres the last three seasons.
2. Ask them if there is a point where you have too many prospects and ask how the farm system is setup to handle 30 draft picks in 3 years.
3. Ask Adams why Power was signed to a 7 year deal when as a 10.2 RFA, he doesn't have arbitration rights or be offersheeted. Also ask what is the risk/reward considered when giving out early long term extensions to players like Samuelsson and Power.
4. Ask Adams why the team did not weaponize their cap space like other teams in retaining salaries or taking on bad contracts.

 

[Dingo44]

There is not proven quality NHL leadership on this roster. If there were, then the narrative at locker clean out day would not have been that they need accountability. The leadership in the room would have held people accountable and to a higher standard than they obviously did.

And if you listen to Brady and others at Ottawa's locker clean out day, I don't get the feeling that Brady is a great leader of men that drags his teammates kicking and screaming to better things.

I am not basing this on Eichel alone. It is the experience for the past decade plus and how they have not surrounding the young players with the right type of veteran leaders that this team needs. I think spending a ton of trade assets for a guy that turns 25yo later this year and has been pressed into leadership too soon and with a similar lack of quality veteran leadership support is not the kind of move that I would be really high on working out well.

I think the priority needs to be adding veterans with real winning resumes and not another talented young player who has no experience of winning in the NHL.

Getting Brady Tkachuk does not prevent the Sabres from also getting veteran leadership. He brings a hell of a lot more to the table than leadership skills.

I'm also tired of hearing about veteran leadership. That's why we brought in guys like Erik Johnson, Eric Staal, Brian Gionta, David Legwand, etc. - guys who were captains on other NHL teams and even most who had Cup rings and didn't do anything to raise the play on the ice or fix the locker room.

We have leaders in this locker room. Danny Briere hadn't been a captain anywhere nor did he come from a successful team yet he was one of the best captains this team has had. Lindy is an all-time Sabres captain. Let's have Lindy show guys like Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson, Tage, and Tuch how to develop that on their own and be men and go out and hold themselves and others accountable and let Kevin worry about getting guys to can play.

 

[Jim Bob]

Getting Brady Tkachuk does not prevent the Sabres from also getting veteran leadership. He brings a hell of a lot more to the table than leadership skills.

I'm also tired of hearing about veteran leadership. That's why we brought in guys like Erik Johnson, Eric Staal, Brian Gionta, David Legwand, etc. - guys who were captains on other NHL teams and even most who had Cup rings and didn't do anything to raise the play on the ice or fix the locker room.

We have leaders in this locker room. Danny Briere hadn't been a captain anywhere nor did he come from a successful team yet he was one of the best captains this team has had. Lindy is an all-time Sabres captain. Let's have Lindy show guys like Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson, Tage, and Tuch how to develop that on their own and be men and go out and hold themselves and others accountable and let Kevin worry about getting guys to can play.

Those previous guys were washed as players. They don't need guys that are contemplating retirement to be the veterans in the room.

Cirelli is my dream add because he ticks all the boxes of filling a huge need, still playing well, and has real winning experience with an organization that has a real winning culture.

Lindy is great. But, I think he needs a couple of guys that are not washed to help improve things.

And getting Brady Tkachuk makes it tougher to add the right veterans because of his big cap hit and the massive trade package that they would have to give up to acquire him. That would likely cost all the trade assets that Adams is willing to move this offseason.

 

[Dingo44]

Those previous guys were washed as players. They don't need guys that are contemplating retirement to be the veterans in the room.

Cirelli is my dream add because he ticks all the boxes of filling a huge need, still playing well, and has real winning experience with an organization that has a real winning culture.

Lindy is great. But, I think he needs a couple of guys that are not washed to help improve things.

And getting Brady Tkachuk makes it tougher to add the right veterans because of his big cap hit and the massive trade package that they would have to give up to acquire him. That would likely cost all the trade assets that Adams is willing to move this offseason.

So for you it's basically Cirelli vs Tkachuk.

 

[Jim Bob]

So for you it's basically Cirelli vs Tkachuk.

For the trade package that people are throwing around for Tkachuk, you could probably get Cirelli and Cernak out of TB.

I would definitely take Cirelli and Cernak over Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Dingo44]

I think the difference in penalty minutes is as important as the difference in points.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I feel like people are looking to take swings on forwards that are too big, and unnecessary. And this is coming from a guy who wants to land Jones!

For instance, I'd take Nic Paul, Nic Roy, or Colton, and their cap hit/asset cost over the likes of Cirelli or Tkachuk. Easily!

 

[Jim Bob]

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I think the difference in penalty minutes is as important as the difference in points.

I don't care about PIMs or pointzzzz.

To rip off Herb Brooks, I am interested in building the best team and not just the best players.

 

[thewookie1]

1. Please ask why the Sabres opted to use LTIR to get over the cap floor rather than veterans and if the lack of veteran presence has helped or hurt the sabres the last three seasons.
2. Ask them if there is a point where you have too many prospects and ask how the farm system is setup to handle 30 draft picks in 3 years.
3. Ask Adams why Power was signed to a 7 year deal when as a 10.2 RFA, he doesn't have arbitration rights or be offersheeted. Also ask what is the risk/reward considered when giving out early long term extensions to players like Samuelsson and Power.
4. Ask Adams why the team did not weaponize their cap space like other teams in retaining salaries or taking on bad contracts.

1. Roster was filled with ELCs they wanted in Buffalo; you can't carry more than 23 players to begin with. As such IR players gave us enough to reach the cap floor while leaving the roster spaces open. Was it a flawless plan, no but it has a logical flow to it.

2. My guess would be no; the more prospects the more likely you have of finding stars. Effectively would you rather have 5 lottery tickets or 10?

3. Power was certainly a buy early to prevent his cap from matching Dahlin's cap style of move. The jury is still out on if it works out. Both Muel and Power were in the category of locking them in at lower price points with the belief they would be eventually great contracts.

4. This would be the one thing I think is Pegula tightening his wallet in. I don't believe he likes paying players or coaches not to play with Buffalo. Hence barring a massive asset gain; Adams doesn't bother asking for Pegula to pay 6mil to get a couple 5ths.

 

[Jim Bob]

I feel like people are looking to take swings on forwards that are too big, and unnecessary. And this is coming from a guy who wants to land Jones!

For instance, I'd take Nic Paul, Nic Roy, or Colton, and their cap hit/asset cost over the likes of Cirelli or Tkachuk. Easily!

If Nic Roy is available, I would definitely like that move. But, given his reasonable cap hit, I would be surprised if Vegas moves him.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

If Nic Roy is available, I would definitely like that move. But, given his reasonable cap hit, I would be surprised if Vegas moves him.

You could say the same thing about Cirelli and Tkachuk, which has a dozen pages worth of discussion on here. The only difference being Cirelli and Tkachuk are even less likely than Roy.

Anyway, I'm juts using Roy as an example of a player type. We should be looking at 3rd and 4th line guys, not 1st and 2nd liners.

 

[Dingo44]

I don't care about PIMs or pointzzzz.

To rip off Herb Brooks, I am interested in building the best team and not just the best players.

Tkachuk is also third in the entire league in hitzzzzz

Discount it all you want but goals+assists+points+PIMs+hits really start to add up.

And as someone who has been watching him play in person since he was 16 what Brady brings on the ice is a lot more than what shows up on the scoresheet. Don't blame him for the disaster of the Senators franchise.

 

[OkimLom]

Kind of curious if Miles Wood would be on Adams' radar (and if Buffalo would be somewhere he would be willing to go) with his age, and relationship with Lindy. Who knows how Colorado will be handling their cap situation. Might be a guy that has a big enough cap hit to make room for Casey or game planning for Mikko.

 

[Beerz]

Kind of curious if Miles Wood would be on Adams' radar (and if Buffalo would be somewhere he would be willing to go) with his age, and relationship with Lindy. Who knows how Colorado will be handling their cap situation. Might be a guy that has a big enough cap hit to make room for Casey or game planning for Mikko.

Isn't that like a long ass contract?

 

[TageGod]

Those previous guys were washed as players. They don't need guys that are contemplating retirement to be the veterans in the room.

Cirelli is my dream add because he ticks all the boxes of filling a huge need, still playing well, and has real winning experience with an organization that has a real winning culture.

Lindy is great. But, I think he needs a couple of guys that are not washed to help improve things.

And getting Brady Tkachuk makes it tougher to add the right veterans because of his big cap hit and the massive trade package that they would have to give up to acquire him. That would likely cost all the trade assets that Adams is willing to move this offseason.

Not interested in Cirelli. He is too expensive for that production.

Kind of curious if Miles Wood would be on Adams' radar (and if Buffalo would be somewhere he would be willing to go) with his age, and relationship with Lindy. Who knows how Colorado will be handling their cap situation. Might be a guy that has a big enough cap hit to make room for Casey or game planning for Mikko.

I think he is bad again. His hype was short lived.

 

[Chainshot]

Wood is a terrible defensive player. Don't care if he's from Buffalo.

 

[OkimLom]

Isn't that like a long ass contract?

Cap hit isn't too high for that long of a deal. I believe it ends in 28-29 season.

But I was just curious if he would be a guy Adams targets. Fits in the age range to add a vet to the team, adds an element this team lacks for a bottom 6 player, played his best hockey under our current coach.

Wood is a terrible defensive player. Don't care if he's from Buffalo.

Same here, but I'm just thinking of guys who Adams would be targeting, and he fits what we need for out bottom 6, he played his best hockey under our current coach, and I think he becomes a cap casualty for Colorado.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Wood is a terrible defensive player. Don't care if he's from Buffalo.

I'm skeptical that Adams covets him as a former player