The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Fly Boy]

Watching Trenin powerkill penalties for the Avs and he's even higher on my list for the depth wingers.

He and Carrier are my top 2 targets in FA. I was thing 2-2.5 x 3 matching contracts for each.

 

[truthbluth]

Might be a leak from RBA’s camp to pressure the team

That's what it was!

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

He and Carrier are my top 2 targets in FA. I was thing 2-2.5 x 3 matching contracts for each.

I think you're dreaming with those prices. He's much more valuable than Hathaway when he got signed and the league knows it. You're probably close to correct on Carrier though, though he'll probably only go to a contender.

 

[Chainshot]

I've been dreaming of him all season, and posting about him since the winter. He plays center and wing too.

I think anyone with cap space will be competing for him though -- kind of like Joshua. Our GM would have to make a hard sell AND overpay for either. Assuming they even agree and identify him as a player they want.

And he’s playing center for them too. Quick, physical and can PK…

 

[Matt Ress]

All fair, and I moderately to strongly agree with all your points. My "two scenarios" was just a hypothetical under the assumption that there was zero budget restriction, which is what Doak and I were discussing. I will admit, it was never a cut and dry one or two, but if there was no cutting costs going on, then the incompetence of Adams was beyond measure - which I strongly believe is not the case.

If you own a franchise and your GM goes out and acquires a LTIR contract before free agency to circumvent the cap floor, and then signs two two-way league minimum goalies to be your starter and backup, and then proceeds to fill out your roster with Will Butcher, John Hayden, Drake Caggiula, Vinnie Hinostriza, etc. - all on league minimum two way contracts, all while you have 24 million in cap space sitting unused, you fire him immediately... unless the reason he made those moves was because you imposed a budget restriction on cap spending.

"Don't want to block any of the kids" was all they could say as a cover up for "we're trying to save money". It was a period were Pegula's finances were reeling. He was trying to recover from the devastating affects COVID had on his energy companies. Energy prices dropped to all time lows, and the cost of a barrel of oil dropped to negative value - they couldn't give oil away, there were tankers full everywhere and no empty storage facilities. Terry's financial empire was struggling. The Sabres were losing massive amounts of money as well. I understand why the budget was cut, but I also think it is important to acknowledge that "not block the kids" was a PR spin to cover up a massive cost cutting endeavor.

That makes sense and I have no doubt that what Adams did was with Terry's blessing.

 

[Fly Boy]

I think you're dreaming with those prices. He's much more valuable than Hathaway when he got signed and the league knows it. You're probably close to correct on Carrier though, though he'll probably only go to a contender.

I'm with you there. I was just throwing out numbers to see what people thought. I would overpay for those two.

 

[Chainshot]

Watching Winnipeg struggle to pass a puck out of their zone when anyone other than Morrissey was on the ice made me wonder if that's Adams' vision for his defense. Four (or more) PMD types rather than the traditional smashers?

 

[goach]

Is this ridiculous? Power Krebs 1st for Andersson Coleman.. Can add a bit more . 3rd in 25

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Is this ridiculous? Power Krebs 1st for Andersson Coleman.. Can add a bit more . 3rd in 25

It'd be fireable. Andersson is an UFA in w seasons, he'd be lucky to return the 11OV, he certainly isn't returning Power. Coleman due to age and contract would likely go for Krebs + 3rd

 

[TehDoak]

Is this ridiculous? Power Krebs 1st for Andersson Coleman.. Can add a bit more . 3rd in 25

As dumb as the Power contract was at the time of the signing, you don't move a 21 year old d-man 1st overall for anything else than a franchise forward coming back.

The only good thing about that deal is we have until he's 26, or 5 years from now, to buyout the remainder at 1/3rd the remaining cost.

I'll move on from anyone on this roster. There isn't enough success to be nostalgic here. But...if its Dahlin or Power, it better be for a franchise altering player.

 

[Irie]

It'd be fireable. Andersson is an UFA in w seasons, he'd be lucky to return the 11OV, he certainly isn't returning Power. Coleman due to age and contract would likely go for Krebs + 3rd

Coleman just potted 30 goals while being a strong two-way forward. I have to think he is going to get more than Krebs + a 3rd if Calgary dangles him.

That being said, he nearly doubled his career shooting percentage this year, so paying what Calgary will likely get in that bidding war is going to be a mistake by someone. While I think Coleman would make the team better now, I am hoping it isn't Adams who ponies up the winning bid.

 

[Fjordy]

Coleman just potted 30 goals while being a strong two-way forward. I have to think he is going to get more than Krebs + a 3rd if Calgary dangles him.

That being said, he nearly doubled his career shooting percentage this year, so paying what Calgary will likely get in that bidding war is going to be a mistake by someone. While I think Coleman would make the team better now, I am hoping it isn't Adams who ponies up the winning bid.

I hope Adams

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Coleman just potted 30 goals while being a strong two-way forward. I have to think he is going to get more than Krebs + a 3rd if Calgary dangles him.

That being said, he nearly doubled his career shooting percentage this year, so paying what Calgary will likely get in that bidding war is going to be a mistake by someone. While I think Coleman would make the team better now, I am hoping it isn't Adams who ponies up the winning bid.

You have to weigh in his age and the remaining contract. Will he be worth it for more than another year or 2 before the wheels fall off

 

[Irie]

You have to weigh in his age and the remaining contract. Will he be worth it for more than another year or 2 before the wheels fall off

Oh, I completely agree with the logic on the value here, but that won't change the fact that some desperate GMs will offer up packages that far out-value "Krebs plus a third".

Desperate GMs make desperate win-now moves, fully expecting that when a contract like
Coleman's becomes an ugly boat anchor for their team, they probably won't still be around and it will be someone else's problem.

 

[Beerz]

Owen Power should do nothing else but work on his shot this summer. All day every day taking one timers and wrist shots from the point.

Having a legitimate shot will make defenders have to respect his shot and it will open up his smooth skating ability to get inside the D and break down the defense.

Then hopefully he can learn how to play at least respectable D from Ruff during camp and work on his D game the following summer hard.

 

[Chainshot]

Owen Power should do nothing else but work on his shot this summer. All day every day taking one timers and wrist shots from the point.

Having a legitimate shot will make defenders have to respect his shot and it will open up his smooth skating ability to get inside the D and break down the defense.

Then hopefully he can learn how to play at least respectable D from Ruff during camp and work on his D game the following summer hard.

Two other things - he should also be in the gym trying to build more strength via moving metal plates which is pretty standard and he should be in a local boxing academy shedding his fear of being punched in the face.

 

[Chainshot]

Some more roster construction thoughts as this first round of the playoffs winds down -

- Hopefully they stay away from Toffoli. The guy is slow as f***.
- I'm inclined that they stay away from Monahan as well because he's also slow as f***.
- My "sign two of these guys" list seems like they're all doing well in their roles, particularly Joshua and Trenin. Carrier has been his usual self and Duhaime has been a pest for the Avs. Trenin back to playing center for the Avs fourth line seems like it's going to get that guy some extra cash this summer.

 

[Djp]

You still don't get it. This is not the NFL.

NHL prospects often need 5-6 years to marinade before they will be impact players in the league.

When you were screaming to trade everyone under the sun back in 2021, the young guys were too young to carry the weight of the core. Trading picks and prospects back then would only drain the farm, and the guys you brought in 3 years ago would be all UFAs now, and riding off to greener pastures with other teams, or demanding huge UFA contracts that this team could not fit under the cap. The team would be devoid of young talent on ELCs coming up through the pipeline to infuse talent into the roster on the cheap(because you traded all those picks 3 years ago), and would have to bargain-bin shop the UFA leftovers for the only guys you could afford, more tired 7th defensemen and 13th forwards that would be willing to come here for league min.

Reality is, had Adams sold off the picks and prospects that early in the rebuild, the team likely would have made the playoffs as a bubble team, been bounced in the first round and be looking at a disappointing future now.

Timing.

Is.

Everything.

Its funny because folks were upset because picks were traded by TM. Now the want to rinse repeat

Adams not improving the team in the summer of 2021, 22, and 23 are the reasons we missed the playoffs in 2023 and 2024

The volume of draft picks was way over the top. The unused cap space was a wasted resource. Adams was keeping a budget not building a team.

There isn’t a good defense for Adams inaction the last 3 years. The difference this year, I hope, is pressure is being applied downward from ownership (and Ruff) to win now.

Missing playoffs can be attributed to other reasons

22/23 the loss of D causing a losing streak
23/24 F injuries and PP drop.

Team wasnt going to do overpayed with term

The Sabres are not trading serious prospects for rentals. It won't happen and shouldn't. Sure, if you can get a guy like Boone Jenner, who has two years (three would be better), then you can let prospects. Otherwise, go overpay for guys like Max Domi (not suggesting him specifically) on one-year deals to fill out the roster. Pegula has to spend to the cap. The $8 M he left on table could have bought two decent players this last year, I get save some money for rookies bonuses but some of that $8 M can be spent.

On here many want to unload them for short term fixes

 

[TehDoak]

Missing playoffs can be attributed to other reasons

22/23 the loss of D causing a losing streak
23/24 F injuries and PP drop.

They missed the playoffs in 22/23 because they didn't have reliable goaltending or PK

They missed the playoffs in 23/24 because the players who had career years the year before regressed a bit and the defense/goaltending wasn't enough to make up the drop in offense.

Buffalo's injuries in both years were below league average, so no more than any other team had to deal with.

The problems the team faced both years were predictable given the state of the roster going into the season. In fact the for both years, the problems had been there for several seasons and Adams did next to nothing to resolve them.

 

[Gras]

They missed the playoffs in 22/23 because they didn't have reliable goaltending or PK

They missed the playoffs in 23/24 because the players who had career years the year before regressed a bit and the defense/goaltending wasn't enough to make up the drop in offense.

Buffalo's injuries in both years were below league average, so no more than any other team had to deal with.

The problems the team faced both years were predictable given the state of the roster going into the season. In fact the for both years, the problems had been there for several seasons and Adams did next to nothing to resolve them.

In Man Games lost or Projected WAR

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

You still don't get it. This is not the NFL.

NHL prospects often need 5-6 years to marinade before they will be impact players in the league.

When you were screaming to trade everyone under the sun back in 2021, the young guys were too young to carry the weight of the core. Trading picks and prospects back then would only drain the farm, and the guys you brought in 3 years ago would be all UFAs now, and riding off to greener pastures with other teams, or demanding huge UFA contracts that this team could not fit under the cap. The team would be devoid of young talent on ELCs coming up through the pipeline to infuse talent into the roster on the cheap(because you traded all those picks 3 years ago), and would have to bargain-bin shop the UFA leftovers for the only guys you could afford, more tired 7th defensemen and 13th forwards that would be willing to come here for league min.

Reality is, had Adams sold off the picks and prospects that early in the rebuild, the team likely would have made the playoffs as a bubble team, been bounced in the first round and be looking at a disappointing future now.

Timing.

Is.

Everything.

That is not true. It’s proven a players prime is in their early 20s

 

[Chainshot]

Its funny because folks were upset because picks were traded by TM. Now the want to rinse repeat


Missing playoffs can be attributed to other reasons

22/23 the loss of D causing a losing streak
23/24 F injuries and PP drop.

Team wasnt going to do overpayed with term

On here many want to unload them for short term fixes

And some - you - want to do nothing, ever because of someday.

That is not true. It’s proven a players prime is in their early 20s

Productivity is not necessarily the same as winning. Look at the contenders. Look at their ages. There are no teams advancing to the 2nd round who are filled with guys under 25. The backbones of those teams are 26-30, professionals who know how to win. They may not be in peak productivity years, they're usually just past that, but they are the one's who carry teams. Buffalo keeps getting close to having that and then people blow it up. They don't add people at that age. They have to look to add more players who know how to win their matchups, how to be professionals and not ride the emotional wave of youth. This isn't junior hockey any more.

 

[Selanne00008]

That is not true. It’s proven a players prime is in their early 20s

In what sport? NFL Rbs? of course. They lack the burst they once had by the time they hit 25.

NHL is different. Maybe Savoie won't have the same endurance at age 26 that he has now at age 20. But, to compete and use strength to bully other men in the corners and shrug off checks, take the beating in front of the net, i would argue PEAK NHL age is 26 or 27 depending on the players stature and talent. Mitts and Reinhart are perfect examples. Nowhere near their peaks in their early 20s.

Guys like Ovechkin and Crosby had a peak that played out for 5-10 years from age 22-30. But your run of the mill solid NHLer is peaking between 25-28. With some peaking right at 25 and starting to decline by 27. Some peaking at 26/27 and then tail off by 28/29.

 

[Irie]

That is not true. It’s proven a players prime is in their early 20s

This is so far from reality when looking at historical NHL numbers that I do not even know where to begin.

The few elite generational talents are typically the only players that this can be said to sometimes be true about, and their numbers often drop off slightly more due to an injury occurring than natural regression.

Let's look at some sabres greats and Look at their best seasons and their ages number wise.

Perreault - best seasons at 25 and 29.
LaFontaine - Best season by a huge margin was at 28
Andreychuk - best seasons at 29 and 31
Housley - best seasons 27 and 30
Gare - best seasons 26 ane 27
Mogilny - best season 24 and 27 (and he had injuries that slowed him after his 24 age campaign.
Hasek wasn't even in the league until he was 25, and didn't have very good numbers until his 28-29 season.

Not only are players still very physically able to compete after their early 20s, (science has proven that most athletes peak physically between the ages of 24 and 26), but hockey is one of the few sports where it is as much cerebral as it is physical,

When comparing hockey to other sports, the only close comparison in regards to development would be the quarterback position in football, because it requires so much mental processing and not just raw physical talent. That is why QBs don't peak in their early-to-mid-twenties the way defensive lineman or runningbacks often do.

Now if you are looking at the science and are just focusing on raw muscle speed, then yes, some athletes will experience their peak physical speed at 22-24, but hockey is so much more than being fractionally faster, as the best players slow the game down and use all their tools to maximize their results.

 

[TehDoak]

In Man Games lost or Projected WAR

Iirc they were one of the least injured teams in both the previous season and middle of the pack this year for both, but I don’t have time to look it up now.