The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Sabresbyswords104]

lmao you want to trade Greenway? One of the only guys who understands his role and does it?

He can stay, the other can just go

 

[Matt Ress]

The solution at the start of the (Adams) rebuild was never "trade picks because we have too many.

Draft picks are lottery tickets unless they are top 10 picks. You use them and pray that one of the kids you draft turns into a perennial allstar in 4-6 years. When you use a 14th overall pick on a guy like Rosen, it's a bit like buying a new car, the moment you make the selection(drive the car off the lot), it losses half it's value.

Even moving Rosen now, he doesn't have 14OA value, even though he has been developing nicely.

Accumulating trade value with the prospects you draft should never be the goal. Holding on to your prospects long enough to not make a Hagel sized mistake of giving up too soon should always be the goal. Yes, you are going to eat some value on prospects you hold too long as they bust, but that value is never enough to justify cutting bait too soon.

What Adams did wrong wasn't "not moving the extra picks", it was his failure to bring in decent vet mentors to insulate the kids and help them learn how to succeed in the NHL. The main focus should never have been "playoffs or bust for experience", it should always have been about learning how to play in this league to be successful, and Adams also had a coach that ignored all the details that turn average players into good players. Letting them all play undisciplined shinny hockey to "boost confidence"(and their point totals and contract asks) while neglecting defense and responsibility and ignoring the details of the game was always a stupid idea, yet here we are with half the fanbase believing it was a great idea.

Adams has done well with the patient approach to the farm and his picks and prospects. It is his coaching choices and roster supplementation that has been crap.

Oh come on man. There was a bunch of break out players last year. It was clearly a good starting move. The problem with Granato's approach was everything afterwards. Not having the team prepared for this season or on a daily game basis, not being able to pivot away from carefree hockey. They needed to be able to play without thinking or worrying but DG just never took the next necessary steps with them. The conversations are a great idea but he didn't actually compel the players this year to tighten their team game.

Then the crusty story about pegula not letting Adams spend money when that's been debunked so many times by adams himself even. With so much information posted around here I don't know how people keep clinging to these narratives.

 

[Irie]

Oh come on man. There was a bunch of break out players last year. It was clearly a good starting move. The problem with Granato's approach was everything afterwards. Not having the team prepared for this season or on a daily game basis, not being able to pivot away from carefree hockey. They needed to be able to play without thinking or worrying but DG just never took the next necessary steps with them. The conversations are a great idea but he didn't actually compel the players this year to tighten their team game.

Then the crusty story about pegula not letting Adams spend money when that's been debunked so many times by adams himself even. With so much information posted around here I don't know how people keep clinging to these narratives.

Granato turned an extremely dysfunctional locker room into a family of players that cared about the team, each other, and that wanted to be in Buffalo. That was an amazing feat and the value of that accomplishment can not be overstated.

However, as a coach, he fostered a culture of undisciplined play and terrible habits that is going to have to be condition out of all the young players, and those players missed a couple of years of learning how to play the way you need to if you want to remain in this league. There was a fair amount of bad that came with the good that Granato did for this organization. Pointing out the bad as part of the failure of the rebuild is important imo. If it offends you that I am not giving Granato more credit for the good he did, then I apologize, but we are discussing what went wrong here.

As far as the salary cap and Adams' spending in 2021. Here are the facts.

The Sabres were losing a lot of money. The organization cut back just about everywhere they could to cut costs and save money. Before the UFA market opened up, Adams traded for the fully insured LTIR contract of Ben Bishop to give the team room to avoid having to spend to the floor of the salary cap.

Now, one of two things happened here.

1. Adams thought that the best path for the team and the organization was to ignore the 24 million in the free cap that he had, and instead go out and acquire two league minimum goalies, and add guys like Robert Hagg and Will Butcher because they would be the best additions for the current team.

or

2. Adams had an agreement with Pegula to cut costs and save salary at every possible point, and circumvent the cap floor by proactively trading for insured LTIR contracts.

I know Adams has claimed that all decisions were his decisions alone, but what we already know is that the firing and furloughing of 120+ Sabres employees was Terry Pegula's decision and he hired Adams to do the dirty work to save him some cash in the middle of a pandemic.

If you believe that scenario one is what happened like Adams has suggested, then I do not know how you can have any faith in the competence of Adams moving forward. Personally, I have defended Adams on a lot of issues on these boards, as I am sure you have read, but we gotta be realistic here. Adams is not a complete idiot. There was pressure to cut costs with that roster, and that is why he didn't even spend the cap floor back then. No other reason, despite the BS he pushes in press conferences.

 

[Beerz]

Granato turned an extremely dysfunctional locker room into a family of players that cared about the team, each other, and that wanted to be in Buffalo. That was an amazing feat and the value of that accomplishment can not be overstated.

However, as a coach, he fostered a culture of undisciplined play and terrible habits that is going to have to be condition out of all the young players, and those players missed a couple of years of learning how to play the way you need to if you want to remain in this league. There was a fair amount of bad that came with the good that Granato did for this organization. Pointing out the bad as part of the failure of the rebuild is important imo. If it offends you that I am not giving Granato more credit for the good he did, then I apologize, but we are discussing what went wrong here.

As far as the salary cap and Adams' spending in 2021. Here are the facts.

The Sabres were losing a lot of money. The organization cut back just about everywhere they could to cut costs and save money. Before the UFA market opened up, Adams traded for the fully insured LTIR contract of Ben Bishop to give the team room to avoid having to spend to the floor of the salary cap.

Now, one of two things happened here.

1. Adams thought that the best path for the team and the organization was to ignore the 24 million in the free cap that he had, and instead go out and acquire two league minimum goalies, and add guys like Robert Hagg and Will Butcher because they would be the best additions for the current team.

or

2. Adams had an agreement with Pegula to cut costs and save salary at every possible point, and circumvent the cap floor by proactively trading for insured LTIR contracts.

I know Adams has claimed that all decisions were his decisions alone, but what we already know is that the firing and furloughing of 120+ Sabres employees was Terry Pegula's decision and he hired Adams to do the dirty work to save him some cash in the middle of a pandemic.

If you believe that scenario one is what happened like Adams has suggested, then I do not know how you can have any faith in the competence of Adams moving forward. Personally, I have defended Adams on a lot of issues on these boards, as I am sure you have read, but we gotta be realistic here. Adams is not a complete idiot. There was pressure to cut costs with that roster, and that is why he didn't even spend the cap floor back then. No other reason, despite the BS he pushes in press conferences.

You know both can be true... a directive to cut costs during pandemic like a lot of different businesses did and a lot different nhl teams did AND a decision to do a slow rebuild not based on cost cutting moves but based on patiently waiting on rebuild focusing on development (not blocking kids) getting bogged down with large contracts and building the core all while infusing more money and resources into slowly rebuilding front office after purge.

 

[TehDoak]

Then the crusty story about pegula not letting Adams spend money when that's been debunked so many times by adams himself even. With so much information posted around here I don't know how people keep clinging to these narratives.

Buddy if you think Adams is telling the truth about the Pegulas and resources despite years of evidence to the contrary I’m not sure what to say. Adams works off a narrative that will always paint his boss in the best possible light and casts blame anywhere but the ownership.

 

[Irie]

You know both can be true... a directive to cut costs during pandemic like a lot of different businesses did and a lot different nhl teams did AND a decision to do a slow rebuild not based on cost cutting moves but based on patiently waiting on rebuild focusing on development (not blocking kids) getting bogged down with large contracts and building the core all while infusing more money and resources into slowly rebuilding front office after purge.

If you go out and pick up LTIR contracts weeks before the UFA market opens with the intention of circumventing the cap floor, and then bring in half a dozen league minimum two way contracts to fill out your roster, cutting costs IS a definite priority.

A GM would never admit their organization is trying to cut costs, so of course they are going to say something else. Taking them at their word when all the evidence says otherwise is being naive.

I don't hate Adams and I don't have an agenda, I often defend the guy, but the narrative he was spinning back in 2021 that his moves weren't budget related was a disingenuous load of crap. I understand why he was spinning that narrative, as every GM would do the same in his position, but anyone paying attention knew it was BS.

 

[joshjull]

Could you now trade Rosen for #14 overall? No
Could you now trade Ostlund for #16 overall? No
Could you trade Kulich for #28 overall? Probably, but not a slam dunk
Could you trade Savoie for #9 overall? No

As @SnuggaRUDE points out, teams generally don’t trade their first round picks prior to playing in the NHL.

The question is how do other teams value the 11th overall pick vs how they might value the 4 prospects we’re discussing?

I’m not 100% disagreeing with you. Teams very much could value the 11th overall more. I’m just saying it’s not crazy to think a team may value one of the prospects more than the pick for a variety of reasons. I’m not asserting they are without question the better value option in trade.

I see them all losing value, except for maybe Kulich. People will disagree and that's fine, but they sure as shit aren't increasing in value the longer they develop.

For one thing, most of them were drafted as centers and now very few orgs would trade for them expecting any of them would play center.

The more they take steps towards their upside potential, the more value they would have. The reverse can also be true. Though teams tend to be more forgiving of an off year with higher picks.

If Savoie comes in and scorches the AHL, of course his value goes up.

 

[joshjull]

Very true, on all points. I don't even think we need to trade them soon -- that's not my point. It's that I don't want our GM feeling pressure to put them on the Sabres roster because I want to start watching an actual NHL team. Half the people here are already penciling Kulich and Savoie onto the team next year, and I'm sure their agents are doing likewise.

If we keep them, they should be callups-only for the next two seasons. Not necessarily because they aren't NHL-ready -- it's that I want us to have a full roster for once, without having to put training wheels on two lines.

They should definitely come into camp with the expectation of starting in the AHL and be call ups options. But they should play where they earn their ice time. I have no problem if they force their way onto the roster. I’m not talking about simply showing they are NHL ready.

Arbitrarily keeping them down for two years, regardless of how they play, is not something they should do.

 

[joshjull]

Regrettably, we’ll never have a chance to find out

Dark, but funny

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I agree, but not because of the reason you've implied. Ostlund, Kulich and Savoie are worth their draft positions in a vacuum, but teams will usually prefer to pick their own young player fitting their long term needs rather than trade a pick for another team's young player.

You couldn’t trade any of those prospects for their draft position seconds after the pick had been made. Literally 3 top 50 prospects and Ostlund has been hiding in Europe and is the furthest from the nhl.

 

[Irie]

You know both can be true... a directive to cut costs during pandemic like a lot of different businesses did and a lot different nhl teams did AND a decision to do a slow rebuild not based on cost cutting moves but based on patiently waiting on rebuild focusing on development (not blocking kids) getting bogged down with large contracts and building the core all while infusing more money and resources into slowly rebuilding front office after purge.

Sorry, I responded to you earlier and doubled down in one of the points without really addressing your take of "both can be true". I was rushed to post before work.

The original discussion was all about my belief that this team needed to overspend to bring in a couple of vets in 2021, not to compete, but to mentor all the kids. @TehDoak pointed out that it was a flawed plan because Adams could not spend then due to budget constraints. I acknowledged he might be right, but stated that did not mean that it still wasn't the right course of action, and that is when I was called out for suggesting Adams was on a constrained budget- which derailed the conversation.

And yes, you are correct, both could be true, as you laid out, and likely were true, but if there weren't budget constraints, as suggested, then only one could be true, which was what I was articulating there.

 

[Matt Ress]

Granato turned an extremely dysfunctional locker room into a family of players that cared about the team, each other, and that wanted to be in Buffalo. That was an amazing feat and the value of that accomplishment can not be overstated.

However, as a coach, he fostered a culture of undisciplined play and terrible habits that is going to have to be condition out of all the young players, and those players missed a couple of years of learning how to play the way you need to if you want to remain in this league. There was a fair amount of bad that came with the good that Granato did for this organization. Pointing out the bad as part of the failure of the rebuild is important imo. If it offends you that I am not giving Granato more credit for the good he did, then I apologize, but we are discussing what went wrong here.

As far as the salary cap and Adams' spending in 2021. Here are the facts.

The Sabres were losing a lot of money. The organization cut back just about everywhere they could to cut costs and save money. Before the UFA market opened up, Adams traded for the fully insured LTIR contract of Ben Bishop to give the team room to avoid having to spend to the floor of the salary cap.

Now, one of two things happened here.

1. Adams thought that the best path for the team and the organization was to ignore the 24 million in the free cap that he had, and instead go out and acquire two league minimum goalies, and add guys like Robert Hagg and Will Butcher because they would be the best additions for the current team.

or

2. Adams had an agreement with Pegula to cut costs and save salary at every possible point, and circumvent the cap floor by proactively trading for insured LTIR contracts.

I know Adams has claimed that all decisions were his decisions alone, but what we already know is that the firing and furloughing of 120+ Sabres employees was Terry Pegula's decision and he hired Adams to do the dirty work to save him some cash in the middle of a pandemic.

If you believe that scenario one is what happened like Adams has suggested, then I do not know how you can have any faith in the competence of Adams moving forward. Personally, I have defended Adams on a lot of issues on these boards, as I am sure you have read, but we gotta be realistic here. Adams is not a complete idiot. There was pressure to cut costs with that roster, and that is why he didn't even spend the cap floor back then. No other reason, despite the BS he pushes in press conferences.

Well I'm not offended by anything and I certainly don't think you didn't give him enough credit. I just believe, again that he did well getting players on board and using their skillsets but failed quite miserably pivoting to a more rounded game and obviously didn't create any sort of disciplined environment. I've said the same thing for months and never been an apologist.

You laid out 2 scenerios as if they're the only possibilities. You asked what I believe. I believe that Adams moved into a rebuilding stage through COVID because the organization was a mess and underperforming with the top players not wanting to be here. He is after all, responsible for financial performance of the team ultimately. Everything about the team and outside circumstances pointed to a rebuild. And that's what he did

 

[Beauty]

I want to be the first on record to recommend signing Viktor Arvidsson for the third line. Watched a lot of the LA/EDM series and he was a player.

 

[Matt Ress]

Buddy if you think Adams is telling the truth about the Pegulas and resources despite years of evidence to the contrary I’m not sure what to say. Adams works off a narrative that will always paint his boss in the best possible light and casts blame anywhere but the ownership.

We all you know how strongly you feel about that tinfoil hat

 

[Chainshot]

Watching Trenin powerkill penalties for the Avs and he's even higher on my list for the depth wingers.

 

[Jacob582]

Watching Trenin powerkill penalties for the Avs and he's even higher on my list for the depth wingers.

What's he expected to get in free agency?

 

[TehDoak]

We all you know how strongly you feel about that tinfoil hat

3 years in a row bottom 2 spending in the league, but Adams has been truthful saying the Pegulas have provided him all the resources he could ever need.

 

[Chainshot]

What's he expected to get in free agency?

27, coming off a $1.7M deal... probably low 2's IMO. I don't sub at a rate that gives me the predictive numbers from places that do that stuff.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Watching Trenin powerkill penalties for the Avs and he's even higher on my list for the depth wingers.

I've been dreaming of him all season, and posting about him since the winter. He plays center and wing too.

I think anyone with cap space will be competing for him though -- kind of like Joshua. Our GM would have to make a hard sell AND overpay for either. Assuming they even agree and identify him as a player they want.

 

[Jacob582]

27, coming off a $1.7M deal... probably low 2's IMO. I don't sub at a rate that gives me the predictive numbers from places that do that stuff.

Ok, so he'll get the Garnet Hathaway contract.
2 x $2.375M

Maybe a little higher since the salary cap is going up. And maybe a little longer because he's younger.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Ok, so he'll get the Garnet Hathaway contract.
2 x $2.375M

Maybe a little higher since the salary cap is going up. And maybe a little longer because he's younger.

I think he'll try to use the Compher deal as a comparable, 5x5, and will get something like ~$4m x 5 years.

 

[TehDoak]

I wonder what Seattle's plan with Gourde is this summer?

He's on the last year of his deal and his offense dropped from 48 pts last year to 33 points this year.

He's very much a utility forward, played both center and LW last year.

He has a 23 team "trade list". Sounds like he's trying to avoid Canada and two other specific markets
Seattle doesn't have any cap issues really, only big RFA is Bernier and they have ~20M of cap space for 7-8 roster spots. I'm curious with the firing of their coach if they are looking to make some changes to the roster, however,

 

[Sabre the Win]

What's the chance Guentzel gets to FA and not resign with Carolina? If we can't beat what Vegas gave up and I cant have Tomas Hertl because our GM likes to sit on his hands and remain at status quo then maybe we can get Guentzel for 5 years without having to give anything up; well maybe just Skinner.

 

[Irie]

Well I'm not offended by anything and I certainly don't think you didn't give him enough credit. I just believe, again that he did well getting players on board and using their skillsets but failed quite miserably pivoting to a more rounded game and obviously didn't create any sort of disciplined environment. I've said the same thing for months and never been an apologist.

You laid out 2 scenerios as if they're the only possibilities. You asked what I believe. I believe that Adams moved into a rebuilding stage through COVID because the organization was a mess and underperforming with the top players not wanting to be here. He is after all, responsible for financial performance of the team ultimately. Everything about the team and outside circumstances pointed to a rebuild. And that's what he did

All fair, and I moderately to strongly agree with all your points. My "two scenarios" was just a hypothetical under the assumption that there was zero budget restriction, which is what Doak and I were discussing. I will admit, it was never a cut and dry one or two, but if there was no cutting costs going on, then the incompetence of Adams was beyond measure - which I strongly believe is not the case.

If you own a franchise and your GM goes out and acquires a LTIR contract before free agency to circumvent the cap floor, and then signs two two-way league minimum goalies to be your starter and backup, and then proceeds to fill out your roster with Will Butcher, John Hayden, Drake Caggiula, Vinnie Hinostriza, etc. - all on league minimum two way contracts, all while you have 24 million in cap space sitting unused, you fire him immediately... unless the reason he made those moves was because you imposed a budget restriction on cap spending.

"Don't want to block any of the kids" was all they could say as a cover up for "we're trying to save money". It was a period were Pegula's finances were reeling. He was trying to recover from the devastating affects COVID had on his energy companies. Energy prices dropped to all time lows, and the cost of a barrel of oil dropped to negative value - they couldn't give oil away, there were tankers full everywhere and no empty storage facilities. Terry's financial empire was struggling. The Sabres were losing massive amounts of money as well. I understand why the budget was cut, but I also think it is important to acknowledge that "not block the kids" was a PR spin to cover up a massive cost cutting endeavor.

 

[Irie]

I wonder what Seattle's plan with Gourde is this summer?

He's on the last year of his deal and his offense dropped from 48 pts last year to 33 points this year.

He's very much a utility forward, played both center and LW last year.

He has a 23 team "trade list". Sounds like he's trying to avoid Canada and two other specific markets
Seattle doesn't have any cap issues really, only big RFA is Bernier and they have ~20M of cap space for 7-8 roster spots. I'm curious with the firing of their coach if they are looking to make some changes to the roster, however,

Out here the general consensus is that ownership was pretty unhappy with all the empty seats this season. Their main goal is still convincing the NBA that their market is worthy of expansion, so the idea of embracing a slow rebuild and maybe seeing falling attendance does not feel likely.

With Wennberg out, and Beniers and Gourde as the only two true centers, moving Gourde without bringing in a legitimate top 3 center feels unlikely. (McCann can play center and his metrics are decent, but his production falls, and Wright is probably not ready for the role, although he may be forced into it due to lack of better alternatives)