The Quest for Home Ice vs Boston

[Tak7]

Yet we keep winning against them.

Playoffs are a very different animal - I think they have a roster that is both:

a) setup to be good in the playoffs
b) setup to counter the Leafs style of play

 

[DopeyFish]

They have such a gap that I can't really see it happening. I think they'll win a lot of those games.

another factor is boston has 1 day rest between most of their games and 2 back to backs. they're also mostly away, not at home. So they're getting screwed sleep wise, getting screwed practice wise.

 

[Deebo]

I thought it was impossible, but with their #1C out and their entire top pair injured as well, we might actually have a chance.

Especially since we have a super soft sked the rest of the way.

Even with those injuries, Do you really think they'll go sub .400 the rest of the way?

And even if they do somehow go .385 (10/26 points, sub Buffalo level bad) , the leafs will need to play .727 (16/22 points) hockey to pass them.

 

[Daisy Jane]

They aren't a one-line team, and as I mentioned above - I think people are way too quick to dismiss them, and that's likely because many haven't seen them play much.

They are a damn good team.

as are we.
and i don't think it will be that easy for Boston to beat us, no would it be that easy for us to beat Boston. which tends to be the case when you are the 2nd and 3rd seed.

let's not also ignore the fact the last two years the leafs and bruins were very close in points etc. (the only reason why we were the WC was due to ROW).

i follow a very intelligent hockey vlogger, who is a huge Boston fan, and he flat out said he'd rather face Tampa than Toronto due to a lot of our speed, our depth down the lines etc and that while the series would be long (and entertaining), he thinks Toronto would be Boston.

Quite honestly, we can give any team the credit they want - but people want to dismiss our chances or think we'll never have a chance. which is not true

 

[Tak7]

as are we.
and i don't think it will be that easy for Boston to beat us, no would it be that easy for us to beat Boston. which tends to be the case when you are the 2nd and 3rd seed.

let's not also ignore the fact the last two years the leafs and bruins were very close in points etc. (the only reason why we were the WC was due to ROW).

i follow a very intelligent hockey vlogger, who is a huge Boston fan, and he flat out said he'd rather face Tampa than Toronto due to a lot of our speed, our depth down the lines etc and that while the series would be long (and entertaining), he thinks Toronto would be Boston.

Quite honestly, we can give any team the credit they want - but people want to dismiss our chances or think we'll never have a chance. which is not true

Strange thing for your vlogger to say, considering Tampa are accepted as being deeper and faster than us.

Let's see what happens. Personally I think Boston are heavy favorites in a Bruins-Leafs series

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

i think - while i know people are thinking game seven.
I think esp how good we are on the road - it's good to start on the road, get a split and control home ice.

That's probably the most realistic option

 

[zeke]

Even with those injuries, Do you really think they'll go sub .400 the rest of the way?

And even if they do somehow go .385 (10/26 points, sub Buffalo level bad) , the leafs will need to play .727 (16/22 points) hockey to pass them.

well, the leafs have won at that .727 clip over their last 11gms, and at a .773 clip over their last 22gms, and their schedule is only getting easier.

so yeah, there's a chance.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Yes, it's possible.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Playoffs are a very different animal - I think they have a roster that is both:

a) setup to be good in the playoffs
b) setup to counter the Leafs style of play

Not sure why their lineup would be setup to be good in the playoffs as opposed the regular season. They're a good team no question but I don't see how they're THAT much better than us and if they're banged up, I'm not sure they're better at all.

Strange thing for your vlogger to say, considering Tampa are accepted as being deeper and faster than us.

Let's see what happens. Personally I think Boston are heavy favorites in a Bruins-Leafs series

What does "heavy favorites" mean to you? Winning chance of 60%? 70%? 80%?

well, the leafs have won at that .727 clip over their last 11gms, and at a .773 clip over their last 22gms, and their schedule is only getting easier.

so yeah, there's a chance.

I think there's a better chance of us winning at that rate than there of Boston doing so poorly, you never know though.

 

[MattySnipes]

The biggest thing with home ice is the ability to dictate the match ups.

Exactly, and when it comes down to matchups, with the versatility of our roster I give us the edge. We gotta keep pushing, obviously it's unlikely but never say never. Anything can happen, Boston CAN play like a last place team and end up finishing 3rd - we give them too much respect. No doubt they've had a great year along with their rookies in their first year but 18/22 points is very possible for the Leafs with potential for the only two losses to come against the two best teams (Tampa/Nashville). I see we play Winnipeg as well, you can throw them in there as a top team but they're more beatable right now than Tampa/Nashville.

Either way, 2nd place or 3rd place - I am happy we're back in the real season two years in a row. Lets keep this going.

 

[BertCorbeau]

There's no room for error on the Leafs' part and they need Boston to struggle. That's about it.

 

[Deebo]

well, the leafs have won at that .727 clip over their last 11gms, and at a .773 clip over their last 22gms, and their schedule is only getting easier.

so yeah, there's a chance.

That P% is only good enough if the Bruins are pretty much the worst team in the NHL for the rest of the season, if the Bruins go .500 the Leafs will need to go .864 to pass them.

I think there's a better chance of us winning at that rate than there of Boston doing so poorly, you never know though.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at but zeke ignored the rate that the Bruins would have to collect points at in order for a .727 P% to be good enough to pass them.

 

[rent free]

the bruins need to go 9-4 in order for us to not get home ice advantage.

 

[Gary Nylund]

i follow a very intelligent hockey vlogger, who is a huge Boston fan, and he flat out said he'd rather face Tampa than Toronto due to a lot of our speed, our depth down the lines etc and that while the series would be long (and entertaining), he thinks Toronto would be Boston.

I must say it's really cool to hear that! It's not the only thing I've heard either, from time to time I hear good things being said about the Toronto Maple Leafs. It's sure it nice to once again be respected around the league.

 

[zeke]

Boston vs Strength of Schedule

Teams in order of pts%

1.NSH 2gms, 1-1-0, 2pts, -1gdiff
2.TBL 1gms, 1-0-0, 2pts, +1gdiff
3.BOS ---
4.VGK 2gms, 1-1-0, 2pts, -1gdiff
5.WPG 1gms, 1-0-0, 2pts, 0gdiff
6.TOR 4gms, 1-2-1, 3pts, -2gdiff

Vs 105pts+ Pace: 10gms, 5-4-1, 11pts, -0.30gdiff/gm (.550pts%) -4gms remaining

7.WSH 3gms, 0-2-1, 1pts, -3gdiff
8.MIN 1gms, 1-0-0, 2pts, +2gdiff
9.SJS 2gms, 2-0-0, 4pts, +3gdiff
10.PIT 3gms, 2-0-1, 5pts, +4gdiff
11.COL 2gms, 0-2-0, 0pts, -7gdiff
12.LAK 2gms, 1-0-1, 3pts, 0gdiff
13.DAL 1gms, 0-0-1, 1pts, -1gdiff
14.ANA 2gms, 0-2-0, 0pts, -4gdiff

Vs. 95-104pts Pace: 16gms, 6-6-4, 16pts, -0.38gdiff/gm (.500pts%) - 2gms remaining

15.NJD 3gms, 3-0-0, 6pts, +3gdiff
16.PHI 2gms, 2-0-0, 4pts, +4gdiff
17.CBJ 2gms, 1-0-1, 3pts, +5gdiff
18.FLA 1gms, 0-1-0, 0pts, -3gdiff
19.STL 1gms, 1-0-0, 2pts, +2gdiff
20.CGY 2gms, 2-0-0, 4pts, +4gdiff

Vs .85-94pts Pace: 11gms, 9-1-1, 19pts, +1.36gdiff/gm (.864pts%) - 6gms remaining

21.CAR 3gms, 3-0-0, 6pts, +9gdiff
22.NYR 3gms, 1-1-1, 3pts, +2gdiff
23.NYI 3gms, 3-0-0, 6pts, +9gdiff
24.CHI 2gms, 1-1-0, 2pts, +1gdiff
25.EDM 2gms, 1-1-0, 2pts, -1gdiff
26.MTL 4gms, 4-0-0, 8pts, +7gdiff
27.DET 4gms, 4-0-0, 8pts, +5gdiff
28.OTT 3gms, 3-0-0, 6pts, +10gdiff -1
29.VAN 2gms, 1-1-0, 2pts, -3gdiff
30.ARZ 2gms, 2-0-0, 4pts, +9gdiff
31.BUF 4gms, 1-2-1, 3pts, -3gdiff

Vs. -85pts Pace: 32gms, 24-6-2, 50pts, +1.41gdiff/gm (.781pts%) - 1gms remaining



What Boston has done a real good job of this year is taking care of business against the bad teams.

Against the good teams, they've been pretty meh.

and they don't have a lot of games left against the bad teams.

 

[BertCorbeau]

FYI the Bruins magic number (combo of B's wins/Leaf losses) is 9

NHL Eastern Conference Winning Magic Numbers

 

[Peiskos]

It isn't.

They are better than us in most categories, but fans don't want to acknowledge that.

The Bruins are not better than the Leafs with regards to speed and individual skill.

 

[Gary Nylund]

the bruins need to go 9-4 in order for us to not get home ice advantage.

Show your work.

 

[rent free]

Show your work.

ok mr. appiah

 

[dangomon]

Show your work.

Currently their magic number to clinch 2nd is 9. Any combination of them winning and us losing (adding up to 9) gives them that position. For more info, check the link..


NHL Eastern Conference Winning Magic Numbers

 

[Gary Nylund]

Currently their magic number to clinch 2nd is 9. Any combination of them winning and us losing (adding up to 9) gives them that position. For more info, check the link..


NHL Eastern Conference Winning Magic Numbers

I understand this, his statement still makes no sense.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Playoffs are a very different animal - I think they have a roster that is both:

a) setup to be good in the playoffs
b) setup to counter the Leafs style of play

they've done nothing to show they can counter our style of play tbh

 

[rent free]

I understand this, his statement still makes no sense.

it makes sense, its just that you don't understand it

 

[Gary Nylund]

it makes sense, its just that you don't understand it

Not even close pal. Do you really need someone to show you some ways where Boston finishes ahead of us without finishing the season 9-4? Avatar bet perhaps?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Isn't it 100 times more likely that the Bruins overpass Tampa for first place and the Leafs remain in third place, than the Bruins slip into third?