The Prospect Thread II (McKay called up)

[MurrayBannerman]

I would read this because it's cool.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

Good stuff.

#HireDarko

 

[darko]

I haven't watched him but pretty much everywhere has Groome and Pint as the clear-cut #1 and 2. What does Puk have on them?

What he doesn't quite have is numbers. On most ocassions I've watched him pitch you look at his box scores and think that those numbers don't do him justice. While obviously more advanced than Groome and Pint I don't really pay attention to that sort of stuff. Like Murray said Groome is insanely advanced for his age (like 2 years ahead of the curve). (Puk) Tall lefty throwing high 90s wipeout stuff but can be inconsistent from time to time. Needs to work on his 3rd pitch to give him 3 plus pitches. Has control issues as well from time to time. Tall frame and because of the sink on his fastball he induces lots of grounders. Groome is the guy I'd definitely consider taking over Puk. Not Pint. He's more riskier IMO.

Groome and Pint have slightly higher upsides but Puk is more safer and much higher floor. Puk sort of reminds me of more filled out version of Andrew Miller. JMO

 

[darko]

Tyler v Puk

 

[YNWA14]

I'm starting to feel the Perez pick more. Also apparently more scouts are jumping on the Moniak hype train. He could be moving ahead of Rutherford, and whispers of Philly even considering him at #1. My list is shifting a bit, now between Senzel, Lewis, Moniak and Perez...hoping one of them will separate themselves before the draft (for what it's worth I'm highest on Moniak and lowest on Senzel).

Pint clocked at over 100. Law says he's never seen a high schooler clocked that high.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

I'm starting to feel the Perez pick more. Also apparently more scouts are jumping on the Moniak hype train. He could be moving ahead of Rutherford, and whispers of Philly even considering him at #1. My list is shifting a bit, now between Senzel, Lewis, Moniak and Perez...hoping one of them will separate themselves before the draft (for what it's worth I'm highest on Moniak and lowest on Senzel).

Pint clocked at over 100. Law says he's never seen a high schooler clocked that high.

Told you.

 

[YNWA14]

Well, isn't there any concern with that kind of velocity that young? I've read his delivery is a bit violent. I'm irrationally scared of taking a pitcher at #2, especially since we have so many good young pitchers coming up right now and no real all-star level position player.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Well, isn't there any concern with that kind of velocity that young? I've read his delivery is a bit violent. I'm irrationally scared of taking a pitcher at #2, especially since we have so many good young pitchers coming up right now and no real all-star level position player.

There's concern with anyone who throws hard. How hard isn't the issue. His velocity is a unicorn trait. He could easily add to it.

It is. It's a control issue, but I think he turns out fine. It's a little bit like Kershaw's with a bit more arm action.

 

[JWK]

I haven't watched him but pretty much everywhere has Groome and Pint as the clear-cut #1 and 2. What does Puk have on them?

Puk has an 80 grade in ability to climb cranes

Blake Snell is getting called up and starting on Saturday.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Puk has an 80 grade in ability to climb cranes

Blake Snell is getting called up and starting on Saturday.

You mean Snellturday.

 

[bluesfan94]

Puk has an 80 grade in ability to climb cranes

Blake Snell is getting called up and starting on Saturday.

Really don't want Snell to pitch well because Erasmo Ramirez is on my fantasy team and he's had one great start already.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Really don't want Snell to pitch well because Erasmo Ramirez is on my fantasy team and he's had one great start already.

There's the impending Chris Archer DL stint.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

There's the impending Chris Archer DL stint.

My Rays at 20-1.............noooooooooo

 

[YNWA14]

A few other stats that worry me about a potential Corey Ray pick:

Striking out more than he is walking - 21/18 and has only walked/struck out in 24% of his at-bats.

Louisville has a team batting average of .335 and he's sitting at .333 (how good can the pitching competition be for them in general?)

As for his strike out rate, he has a higher rate than his entire Louisville team:

Ray: 18 BB's and 21 K's
Rest of Louisville team: 144 and 149

I dunno man. Something just doesn't feel right about that pick. He's fast but he's not a good defender by most ratings either. At the end of the day I'll be excited for whoever we get at 2, but I'm really hoping it's not Ray.

There's the impending Chris Archer DL stint.

Watch your mouth! I need him for my fantasy team. He's fine, he said so himself!

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Glove, athleticism, and speed are incredibly projectable. Bat is murkier.

And ACC is a great conference. Especially for pitching.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

And even then, if he's 50 hit/50 power with his glove and speed, then that's a high quality player.

 

[YNWA14]

His glove is not good though. His speed is but he is not a plus defender.

I'm not looking for a 50/50 guy with plus speed and an average glove at #2. You definitely have to aim higher than that, and I don't see it with Corey Ray. That's all. I'll be pretty disappointed if they take him. His tools are not better than Phil Ervin's for example.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

His glove is not good though. His speed is but he is not a plus defender.

I'm not looking for a 50/50 guy with plus speed and an average glove at #2. You definitely have to aim higher than that, and I don't see it with Corey Ray. That's all. I'll be pretty disappointed if they take him. His tools are not better than Phil Ervin's for example.

Huh? He's at worst a 55 field and he DEFINITELY has a 60 arm.

Double huh? You're not getting guys with multiple 70 tools. You're lucky to get one or two 60 tools. Ray has 2-3 of them and will stick in CF.

Yea, no. That's ridiculous.

 

[darko]

That fact that Ray can stick in CF is a big tick for me. He has above average arm which at CF becomes a bigger asset. He does seem to get good jumps and reads and uses that elite speed to cover tons of ground. IMO with time he can be a plus defender in majors. As for the bat it does have holes. He K's and seems somewhat allergic to walks but does have a knack for getting barrell on the ball. Plus bat speed. Has power.

If he lives up to his potential he can be a 15-20 HR and 30 SB guy while being a plus defender. 7 CFs hit 20 HRs or more last season: Trout, McCutchen, Jones, Granderson, Pederson, Rasmus and Pollock. Cespedes and Kemp played some CF but don't belong there.

 

[darko]

His glove is not good though. His speed is but he is not a plus defender.

I'm not looking for a 50/50 guy with plus speed and an average glove at #2. You definitely have to aim higher than that, and I don't see it with Corey Ray. That's all. I'll be pretty disappointed if they take him. His tools are not better than Phil Ervin's for example.

He won't go that high anyways. Ray will go top-4 as far as hitters are concerned with Senzel, Rutherford and Perez. I've got him 1-2 with Senzel. Perez at 3 and Rutherford at 4. IMO first 3 of the board will be pitchers (Groome, Pint, Puk).

 

[darko]

Puk has an 80 grade in ability to climb cranes

Blake Snell is getting called up and starting on Saturday.

It takes some serious athleticism to climb a crane. Scouts will be all over that.

 

[YNWA14]

He won't go that high anyways. Ray will go top-4 as far as hitters are concerned with Senzel, Rutherford and Perez. I've got him 1-2 with Senzel. Perez at 3 and Rutherford at 4. IMO first 3 of the board will be pitchers (Groome, Pint, Puk).

I think the consensus within the Reds fanbase (and some guys that are pretty well connected there) is that we need to take bats with the first two picks given all the young pitching talent that we already have stocked up on recently.

Most of us are too concerned to be happy with the idea of Ray at 2. Most people seem to want Senzel (I prefer Lewis for the power potential; don't see much there with Senzel). Moniak is my favourite bat in the draft. A guy I talk to actually got to sit in the stands with an agent who was a former scouting director in the MLB and had these questions for him (the italics are his own thoughts I believe):

Do teams ever pass on their first choice and take a second choice because of signing cost? His answer: It happens all the time. For example, in 1990 the Braves first choice for first overall was Todd Van Poppel. His asking price was high, so they moved on to their second choice, Chipper Jones. What I infer from this is that several players may be viewed as worthy of a top choice. Money could come into play if it afforded a team opportunities to sign other players.

Can teams with large bonus pools use that leverage to guarantee over slot money if the player is not drafted in the first round? Answer: Yes. It is then the agent's job to persuade other teams not to draft the player in the first round because the player has a deal in place for a later pick. What I infer from this is that the Reds should be active in pursuing players who fall out of the top 10 or so rather than simply sitting there and waiting to see who is still available at 35. It's still early, but I am thinking Perez or Hansen for example. At any rate, Reds should get two of the top twenty players given their bonus pool.

If this kind of strategy could be used to convince a bat like Moniak or Lewis to drop to 35 for an above slot bonus I would be fine taking Pint/Puk/Senzel/Perez at #2. I'd really like to see them go for a home-run pick at 2 though and not just play it safe. So if a Puk drops enough as he seems to be in a few places I wouldn't mind going for Perez/Moniak/Lewis at 2 and Puk at 35 for over-slot as well.

Anyway, too much speculation for now. Lots of time for players to really distinguish themselves (I really hope a batter steps up).

 

[MurrayBannerman]

If Puk lasts til 35, I'll eat a shoe.

 

[YNWA14]

I'm not saying he would specifically, but a top end arm could drop with the promise of an over-slot payment. Law doesn't have Puk in his top 10 and BA has him at 6th ATM, and I think he's been dropping a bit. I think the target is anyone that drops out of the top 10 could take extra money to "agree" to be drafted later. There's going to be at least one or two guys that fall out of the top 10 for whatever reason, including monetary incentive.

 

[darko]

Lot would have to go wrong for Puk to drop out of 1st round. By alot I mean serious injuries.

If he remains healthy he's going in the top half of 1st round.