T1K
Registered User
DJ didn’t know who the Panthers HC was before going out to dinner with him…. Is anyone still upset we got rid of this guy? This says everything you need to know about him and where his focus is.
I wouldn't trade up but we've known the Steelers love Mitchell for a while. Maybe they think he's special. He physically kind of reminds me of Revis.
I don't think the Steelers "have" to get a RT in round 1, mostly because I think they can take a guy in round 2 or 3 and still get a solid NFL starter. RT isn't LT, so you can absolutely get quality RTs without using a 1st rounder on them. But with that being said, for the holes on this team, I really don't see a justification for any position being a larger need and worthy of a round 1 pick than a RT.
Over/Under on 1st round QB's taken in the draft is 4.5. The over is somewhere between -170 and -210 depending on your book but needless to say, I'm sure we'd all love to see Penix and or Nix go early in the draft. Would push players at a bigger positional need down the board to us. Even if they don't go in the 1st, I'm starting to get the impression they'd both be gone by pick 51 which helps us as well.
I'm sure some teams could look at Barton and J P-J with the ability to play Guard as well as Center. Though I guess Frazier may be able to play Guard as well.
I really think Steelers fans are exaggerating how much interest there is in Frazier, tbh. I'm becoming more and more sure he falls to 51. And even if he doesn't fall to 51, I'm pretty confident that Van Pran will be there at 84 and the Steelers would take him there.
Everything I'm reading, ideas be shocked at this point if JJ McCarthy doesn't go top 5. Likely higher.I don't know, I'm not going to actually bet on it but if I did I'd inclined to take the over. Top 3 should be Williams, Daniels, Maye. Could see McCarthy as early as pick 4 if there's a trade up (or even 3?), but he's almost a lock to go top 10 (-1200 on BetMGM).
Just hard for me to imagine teams like Denver, Minnesota, and Vegas running with Stidham/Darnold/Minshew.
Yeah I've been saying all offseason pick ~50 really is a sweet spot for Center if you look at draft history. I think teams are just going to want to take bigger swings with their first/early 2nd which always pushes down the less premium positions. Yinzer nation will talk about Khan's balls of steel if he stays at 51 and Frazier is on the board.
#smokescreenseason
Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.That's my guy! Although I'd have to weigh the cost.
Yeah it would cost at least a 2nd + something else... too rich for me personally.Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probably ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.
Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.
Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but
a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued
Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.
Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.
What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probability ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.
Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.
Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but
a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued
Everything I'm reading, ideas be shocked at this point if JJ McCarthy doesn't go top 5. Likely higher.
Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probability ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.
Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.
Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but
a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued
Yeah emphasis on ballpark. Think the framework of what @Empoleon8771 outlined above makes sense for any deal with Denver at pick 12.That was 20 OA for 10OA, this is 12OA, so in theory it shouldn't be quite that high.
What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?
You wanna go nuts? OK here's a balls to the wall approach.Yeah emphasis on ballpark. Think the framework of what @Empoleon8771 outlined above makes sense for any deal with Denver at pick 12.
I know this rumor was about Mitchell, but I remember some report about the Steelers meeting with Odunze at the combine which was interesting since he was a projected top 10 pick and we had DJ/Pickens at the time. Probably just due diligence. If the Steelers actually believed Odunze is in the same tier as MHJ and Nabers and the Bears pass on him at 9, that's the guy I could probably justify trading up for.
But again it's such a remote possibility and the fact that the strengths of this draft match up nicely with our needs that I don't want to give up extra draft capital to move up.
I think McCarthy is gonna be better than Pickett, that said I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder.Kenny Pickett 2.0 there, but a team is even dumber for drafting him that high.
Using this chart, I think the deal would look pretty close to 20 and 51 for 12 and 121. I'm already not thrilled about taking a CB in round 1, but to sink a 2nd as well to trade up for a defensive player would be a wild mistake IMO.
I think McCarthy is gonna be better than Pickett, that said I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder.
Apparently there are concerns with Mitchell according to this guy. (Halicke)Considering draft position, I think McCarthy will be a bigger bust than Pickett. He may end up better, but not nearly to the degree at which he'll be overdrafted.
I'd do the 2024 2nd and a 2025 3rd for Aiyuk, but if that's not enough, I don't really see a reason to pay more than that. The WR class is too good this year to justify paying more than that.
I even think there is an argument to be made that the Steelers would be better off trading up from 51 with using that 2025 3rd, which likely gets them up to around 40th overall, and just take a WR at 40th overall. I wouldn't say this is likely, but if someone like Adonai Mitchell slides into the early 2nd, I think you'd be better off trading up to draft him than trading that much for Aiyuk.
That was 20 OA for 10OA, this is 12OA, so in theory it shouldn't be quite that high.
What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?
Kenny Pickett 2.0 there, but a team is even dumber for drafting him that high.
Using this chart, I think the deal would look pretty close to 20 and 51 for 12 and 121. I'm already not thrilled about taking a CB in round 1, but to sink a 2nd as well to trade up for a defensive player would be a wild mistake IMO.
So, pretty fair value.Rich Hill model says the 20+51+119 is worth 405 points and 12+76 is worth 408.
Yeah, McCarthy being that much younger IMO is a decisive variable in his favor. I also think he was put in a position to be a game manager with the run heavy offense they had. But when TM had to make a play his numbers were very good.Rich Hill model says the 20+51+119 is worth 405 points and 12+76 is worth 408.
a) Right there on that page it says they believe the Rich Hill chart is more accurate. Not that it makes a huge amount of difference, but fwiw, it's there.
b) I don't get the Pickett - McCarthy comparison. Pickett was an ultra-old prospect without elite traits who suddenly had a giant bust out production season. McCarthy is about four years younger and has pretty much never been as productive as you'd expect for his position but has pretty much all the traits otherwise. Seem pretty close to opposites as prospects.