OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: New Quarter Backs for the Handball team!

[T1K]

https://x.com/josephperson/status/1782823972142231823?s=46&t=YE2NPYWvXyArt8F6TGk8yA

DJ didn’t know who the Panthers HC was before going out to dinner with him…. Is anyone still upset we got rid of this guy? This says everything you need to know about him and where his focus is.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wouldn't trade up but we've known the Steelers love Mitchell for a while. Maybe they think he's special. He physically kind of reminds me of Revis.

I think my concern with trading up is that you’d have to likely get all the way to 15 to guarantee you could get Mitchell. A lot of mocks have him in the 15-18 range, but trading up to 18 probably isn’t enough to get him.

If he is still available at 17, I’d move 20 and 98 to move up to take him. Anything more than 20 and 98 to move up would probably be a no from me.

 

[Peat]

I don't think the Steelers "have" to get a RT in round 1, mostly because I think they can take a guy in round 2 or 3 and still get a solid NFL starter. RT isn't LT, so you can absolutely get quality RTs without using a 1st rounder on them. But with that being said, for the holes on this team, I really don't see a justification for any position being a larger need and worthy of a round 1 pick than a RT.

I'm too lazy to dig and work out details but right now it feels like the value difference between LT and RT is shrinking and shrinking. Guys like Darnell Wright are going *high*. 6 of the 11 highest paid tackles are RTs (10th is a tie between a RT and LT). Which makes sense given the rising standard of rushers playing against the RT.

Which I think makes the idea of getting a quality RT outside the 1st less and less likely. There was Dawand Jones last year but that was a rare faller due to character issues. We're expecting to see the first, what, 3-4 RTs go in the 1st this year?

Over/Under on 1st round QB's taken in the draft is 4.5. The over is somewhere between -170 and -210 depending on your book but needless to say, I'm sure we'd all love to see Penix and or Nix go early in the draft. Would push players at a bigger positional need down the board to us. Even if they don't go in the 1st, I'm starting to get the impression they'd both be gone by pick 51 which helps us as well.

Higher they go the better but that one feels like a real hard bastard to guess due to the limited number of takers.

Could be 6 in the 1st round though. Would not be mega surprising.

I'm sure some teams could look at Barton and J P-J with the ability to play Guard as well as Center. Though I guess Frazier may be able to play Guard as well.

I've 100% seen Frazier mocked a Guard and seen player profiles that note that some teams do think he can play there.

I really think Steelers fans are exaggerating how much interest there is in Frazier, tbh. I'm becoming more and more sure he falls to 51. And even if he doesn't fall to 51, I'm pretty confident that Van Pran will be there at 84 and the Steelers would take him there.

I rely mostly on The Athletic consensus board and the big name analysts - Brugler, Jeremiah, maybe a few others - and I think based on those, it's not guaranteed he goes before 51 but most of those things believed he should. No exaggeration, no need to.

 

[Ulf5]

I don't know, I'm not going to actually bet on it but if I did I'd inclined to take the over. Top 3 should be Williams, Daniels, Maye. Could see McCarthy as early as pick 4 if there's a trade up (or even 3?), but he's almost a lock to go top 10 (-1200 on BetMGM).

Just hard for me to imagine teams like Denver, Minnesota, and Vegas running with Stidham/Darnold/Minshew.



Yeah I've been saying all offseason pick ~50 really is a sweet spot for Center if you look at draft history. I think teams are just going to want to take bigger swings with their first/early 2nd which always pushes down the less premium positions. Yinzer nation will talk about Khan's balls of steel if he stays at 51 and Frazier is on the board.

Everything I'm reading, ideas be shocked at this point if JJ McCarthy doesn't go top 5. Likely higher.

 

[Ryder71]

#smokescreenseason

That's my guy! Although I'd have to weigh the cost.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The thing with all these mocks is there is someone whos being movked as a mid 2nd rounder that will go in the first and someone who is being mocked as a late first that will fall to the 3rd.

Happens almost every year.

There is so much info we dont have

 

[WickedWrister]

That's my guy! Although I'd have to weigh the cost.

Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.

 

[Peat]

Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probability ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.

Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.

Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but

a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued

 

[WickedWrister]

Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probably ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.

Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.

Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but

a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued

Yeah it would cost at least a 2nd + something else... too rich for me personally.
Now if Odunze is still on the board at 10 then I might feel differently on draft night

 

[Ryder71]

Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.

+20OA.

With the holes we have I'm not sure. I love QM! absolutely love this player! But I'd have to think long and hard considering our OL would be in tatters. And any WR would be further down than I'd like.

 

[Ryder71]

Conventional wisdom, Unless someone awesome falls, we Draft Mims or Barton at 20 OA, Pearsall, Corley or Wilson at 51OA, then for example Go OT Fisher, or C SVP, whichever we don't get in RD1 AT84, Then CB at 98.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2023/4/7/23674188/why-the-dan-moore-jr-narrative-with-pittsburgh-steelers-fans-is-unfair-left-tackle-snap-count-starts

It interesting comparing Beachem Villanueva and Moore

 

[Ryder71]

Probably somewhere in the ballpark of a 2nd + future 3rd.

That was 20 OA for 10OA, this is 12OA, so in theory it shouldn't be quite that high.

Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probability ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.

Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.

Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but

a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued

What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Everything I'm reading, ideas be shocked at this point if JJ McCarthy doesn't go top 5. Likely higher.

Kenny Pickett 2.0 there, but a team is even dumber for drafting him that high.

Entertaining what seems to be a 95% probability ridiculous smokescreen, the difference per the Rich Hill trade chart between pick 20 and 12 is effectively pick 65, i.e. the top of the third.

Obviously the Steelers don't have that pick - they have pick 84 - but 84 and 119 would be very close to fair value. It's only 3 points off.

Now normally the team moving up pays a premium but

a) The premium paid by the Steelers to move up for Bush was a whacking great one that should be avoided
b) Smart teams should be refusing to do that as the right to move up is overvalued

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Using this chart, I think the deal would look pretty close to 20 and 51 for 12 and 121. I'm already not thrilled about taking a CB in round 1, but to sink a 2nd as well to trade up for a defensive player would be a wild mistake IMO.

 

[WickedWrister]

That was 20 OA for 10OA, this is 12OA, so in theory it shouldn't be quite that high.


What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?

Yeah emphasis on ballpark. Think the framework of what @Empoleon8771 outlined above makes sense for any deal with Denver at pick 12.

I know this rumor was about Mitchell, but I remember some report about the Steelers meeting with Odunze at the combine which was interesting since he was a projected top 10 pick and we had DJ/Pickens at the time. Probably just due diligence. If the Steelers actually believed Odunze is in the same tier as MHJ and Nabers and the Bears pass on him at 9, that's the guy I could probably justify trading up for.

But again it's such a remote possibility and the fact that the strengths of this draft match up nicely with our needs that I don't want to give up extra draft capital to move up.

 

[xlm34]

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Steelers are talking to Denver but it would surprise me if they were actually serious about trading up. I think pretty much every GM is going to touch base with the teams in front of them to get a sense of what a trade up might look like just in case.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

 

[Ryder71]

Yeah emphasis on ballpark. Think the framework of what @Empoleon8771 outlined above makes sense for any deal with Denver at pick 12.

I know this rumor was about Mitchell, but I remember some report about the Steelers meeting with Odunze at the combine which was interesting since he was a projected top 10 pick and we had DJ/Pickens at the time. Probably just due diligence. If the Steelers actually believed Odunze is in the same tier as MHJ and Nabers and the Bears pass on him at 9, that's the guy I could probably justify trading up for.

But again it's such a remote possibility and the fact that the strengths of this draft match up nicely with our needs that I don't want to give up extra draft capital to move up.

You wanna go nuts? OK here's a balls to the wall approach.

Steelers get: Ayuk, 49ers receive: '25 1st rounder OR 98 OA this year and a '25 2hd
Steelers get:12 OA (Quinyon Mitchell) and 76 OA Denver gets: 20, 51, 119 and a '25 4th

We then would have 76OA and 84OA to get the OL fixed (Maybe Fisher/SVP)

 

[Ryder71]

Kenny Pickett 2.0 there, but a team is even dumber for drafting him that high.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Using this chart, I think the deal would look pretty close to 20 and 51 for 12 and 121. I'm already not thrilled about taking a CB in round 1, but to sink a 2nd as well to trade up for a defensive player would be a wild mistake IMO.

I think McCarthy is gonna be better than Pickett, that said I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder.

 

[Andy99]

Moving up to 12 at that cost makes no sense….Steelers have too many needs….I mean if they needed a QB fine, but otherwise they’ll get really good talent where they are, or even dropping back in the draft…I’d rather see them drop out of the first round actually and pick up 2 seconds for three second round picks…

Looking at options for WR in the later second round and third round, I don’t see too many players who could start day one as a WR on the outside, which imo is their #1 need…most of the WRs projected for day two are slot receivers and those who can also play the outside well are limited and likely will be gone…

Steelers should select Thomas or Mitchell if they stay at #20 and/or drop back a few spots and likely pick up a starting WR still and then can add a Center, CB etc who can start…tackle shouldn’t be their #1 priority unless some big names fall and center shouldn’t be a first round consideration…can find a good starter day 2

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think McCarthy is gonna be better than Pickett, that said I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder.

Considering draft position, I think McCarthy will be a bigger bust than Pickett. He may end up better, but not nearly to the degree at which he'll be overdrafted.

I'd do the 2024 2nd and a 2025 3rd for Aiyuk, but if that's not enough, I don't really see a reason to pay more than that. The WR class is too good this year to justify paying more than that.

I even think there is an argument to be made that the Steelers would be better off trading up from 51 with using that 2025 3rd, which likely gets them up to around 40th overall, and just take a WR at 40th overall. I wouldn't say this is likely, but if someone like Adonai Mitchell slides into the early 2nd, I think you'd be better off trading up to draft him than trading that much for Aiyuk.

 

[Ryder71]

If Khan has a draft like last year or close, I'll be stoked! Looking forward to it.

 

[Ulf5]

Considering draft position, I think McCarthy will be a bigger bust than Pickett. He may end up better, but not nearly to the degree at which he'll be overdrafted.



I'd do the 2024 2nd and a 2025 3rd for Aiyuk, but if that's not enough, I don't really see a reason to pay more than that. The WR class is too good this year to justify paying more than that.

I even think there is an argument to be made that the Steelers would be better off trading up from 51 with using that 2025 3rd, which likely gets them up to around 40th overall, and just take a WR at 40th overall. I wouldn't say this is likely, but if someone like Adonai Mitchell slides into the early 2nd, I think you'd be better off trading up to draft him than trading that much for Aiyuk.

Apparently there are concerns with Mitchell according to this guy. (Halicke)

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

www.dkpittsburghsports.com

There are, however, two big concerns surrounding Mitchell. The first is his blocking in the running game. The Steelers are a run-first team and need receivers to be willing blockers. That is not something that Mitchell displayed while he was at Georgia or while he was at Texas in 2023.

But, perhaps the larger concern is Mitchell's health. He has Type I diabetes, which obviously requires a lot of maintenance. There have been some concerns that have made the rounds that Mitchell has some serious maturity issues off the field, including the way he handles his diabetes.

One of the listed weaknesses on Mitchell's draft profile is his intensity fluctuating from game to game. One anonymous scout publicly said of Mitchell's handling of his diabetes: "You're going to have to assign somebody to be next to him for his first few years because his issues are all about his diabetes and his blood sugar. When his blood sugar's off, he's rude, he's abrasive, he doesn't pay attention in meetings."

Now, the Steelers have done quite a bit of homework on Mitchell. New wide receiver coach Zach Azzanni visited with Mitchell during his pro day, and the Steelers hosted him for one of their 30 pre-draft visits. From what I've heard, the Steelers like Mitchell, as well as LSU's Brian Thomas Jr., who's another receiver that could be available in the Steelers' range. But, only a few people really know how those meetings with Mitchell have gone.

 

[Peat]

That was 20 OA for 10OA, this is 12OA, so in theory it shouldn't be quite that high.


What would the value be of 20, 51 and 119 be for 12 and 76?

Rich Hill model says the 20+51+119 is worth 405 points and 12+76 is worth 408.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Kenny Pickett 2.0 there, but a team is even dumber for drafting him that high.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Using this chart, I think the deal would look pretty close to 20 and 51 for 12 and 121. I'm already not thrilled about taking a CB in round 1, but to sink a 2nd as well to trade up for a defensive player would be a wild mistake IMO.

a) Right there on that page it says they believe the Rich Hill chart is more accurate. Not that it makes a huge amount of difference, but fwiw, it's there.

b) I don't get the Pickett - McCarthy comparison. Pickett was an ultra-old prospect without elite traits who suddenly had a giant bust out production season. McCarthy is about four years younger and has pretty much never been as productive as you'd expect for his position but has pretty much all the traits otherwise. Seem pretty close to opposites as prospects.

 

[Ryder71]

Rich Hill model says the 20+51+119 is worth 405 points and 12+76 is worth 408.

So, pretty fair value.

Rich Hill model says the 20+51+119 is worth 405 points and 12+76 is worth 408.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

a) Right there on that page it says they believe the Rich Hill chart is more accurate. Not that it makes a huge amount of difference, but fwiw, it's there.

b) I don't get the Pickett - McCarthy comparison. Pickett was an ultra-old prospect without elite traits who suddenly had a giant bust out production season. McCarthy is about four years younger and has pretty much never been as productive as you'd expect for his position but has pretty much all the traits otherwise. Seem pretty close to opposites as prospects.

Yeah, McCarthy being that much younger IMO is a decisive variable in his favor. I also think he was put in a position to be a game manager with the run heavy offense they had. But when TM had to make a play his numbers were very good.