John Hollinger picked the Sixers to win it all.
"Are we sleeping on the
Philadelphia 76ers?
It feels like this team has been somewhat written off as a serious contender after finishing fourth in the East last season. But look at the bigger picture and the overall roster, and there’s a lot to like here.
Let’s go backward before we go forward: Philly was the top seed in the East two years ago before an inexplicable meltdown against
Atlanta in the second round of the playoffs, and then last season ended up wasting much of an MVP campaign by
Joel Embiid while sorting out the
Ben Simmons saga.
The Sixers blitzed
Toronto in the first round, 4-2, before succumbing to
Miami in the second round. Yes, Embiid missed the first two games, but the Sixers were also thoroughly outplayed, with a glaring lack of size and physicality beyond Embiid. Miami soundly beat Philly while shooting just 29.8 percent from 3 for the series.
Yet, some good things happened along the way, and more of them came along in the offseason. Most notably, the Sixers bid their time long enough to convert Simmons into a genuine co-pilot for Embiid in
James Harden. Next to Harden,
Tyrese Maxey had a breakout sophomore season, establishing himself as a viable perimeter weapon who can take over the controls when Harden is off the court. And, of course, Embiid stayed healthy and once again finished second in MVP voting.
Overall, the Sixers won 51 games and went 45-23 with Embiid in the lineup. More notably, with Embiid and Harden on the court together, they were an absolute juggernaut, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.5 points per 100 possessions. It was only 21 games, so there’s some serious noise in there, but it’s still a dominant indicator.
Those Sixers weren’t a finished product, though. Weaknesses abounded:
- The bench was mostly bad and got exposed in the playoffs. Rolling with five-man second units didn’t help: Let’s just say Shake Milton/Matisse Thybulle/Furkan Korkmaz/Georges Niang/Paul Reed wasn’t scaring anybody.
- Even with the varsity on the floor, the Sixers lacked a shutdown wing against elite scorers and had no answer for Miami’s Jimmy Butler.
- Their one potential answer to the bullet above (Thybulle) was too disastrous offensively to stay on the court.
- They were often a shooter short, especially with Seth Curry gone in the Harden trade. It was too easy to crowd Embiid.
- Aside from Embiid, they were too small. Backup “four” Niang was 6-foot-7 with a 1-inch vertical; their only wing bigger than 6-6 was the rail-thin Korkmaz. Miami, not a huge team itself, pounded them on the glass.
The Sixers went into the 2022 offseason with a pretty extensive shopping list, one exacerbated by a playoff ACL tear suffered by Danny Green. To a surprising extent, they checked every box, albeit abetted by the sketchy Harden “hey, look, we’re under the apron!” opt-out and re-signing that may yet cost the team draft picks. (The league’s
tampering investigating is still pending.)
Nonetheless, if things work out, this version of the Sixers could be much stronger than a year ago. There wasn’t a real marquee, headliner pickup, so it perhaps hasn’t received enough attention nationally, but this team looks to be solid from top to bottom, more so than last year’s outfit.
To wit:
- Signing Tucker away from Miami simultaneously filled the most glaring need on the roster and weakened one of their chief rivals in the East. In one package, he gives the Sixers three things they needed: a physical defensive stopper, a small-ball five and another reliable shooter.
- Turning Green and a late first-round pick into Melton salvages an existing point of quality on the roster while getting 10 years younger and adding a lot more athletic juice off the bench. Melton and Thybulle were second and first, respectively, in the NBA last season in steal rate and should terrorize opposing second units.
- Signing House supplements the Tucker addition with another big wing defender who can make an open shot.
- Signing Harrell addresses the biggest remaining weakness (backup center) for the nights Embiid will surely miss during the regular season.
Are there still concern points here if you look closely enough? Absolutely. Let’s start with Harden, who seemed to age in dog years last season and was awful in the last two playoff games against Miami. One has to be concerned that he will continue on that trajectory in 2022-23, although his level of play did seem to recover a bit once he got to Philly.
Tucker is hugely important for a 37-year-old role player; they just gave him a three-year guaranteed deal too, so if there’s any drop-off, they’re stuck with a turkey of a contract. Harden and Maxey are still negative defenders whom opponents wasted little time targeting a year ago; even with the new additions, Philly may not have enough perimeter defense against a team like
Boston. And finally, Doc Rivers’ recent playoff history isn’t exactly reassuring either. (While we’re here, Harden’s postseason résumé is also light on bullet points.)
And finally, there is Embiid. He played in 68 games last season … and set a career high. There is little doubt he is as valuable as any other player in the NBA when he’s on the court, but his ability to remain on said court remains problematic. That said, his absence in last year’s playoffs (orbital fracture) was a fluke. The Sixers have no real reason to push his regular-season workload, but his enormous body and injury history combine to make a real concern regardless. Philly’s roster is set up to survive Embiid’s absence in the regular season, so that’s not as big a worry, but it’s still drawing dead in a playoff series if he’s not in the lineup.
The concern points become magnified when one considers the Sixers have used all their trade bullets. With firsts outgoing in 2023, 2025 and 2027 from prior deals, Philly can’t realistically put assets in a deal for another starting-caliber player. With the franchise so close to the luxury-tax apron, any deal that adds salary immediately becomes problematic too.
It would help if some of the young players on the roster made some strides (*glares in the general direction of Jaden Springer*), but that probably won’t happen by this season’s trade deadline. More likely, the bulk of the Sixers’ trade calls will be used-car sales pitches trying to get you to leave the lot with a slightly used Korkmaz. Even second-round picks might not be in play, depending on whatever tampering penalties the league hands down.
There is also the lingering fear of Buddy Ryan Syndrome — that the Sixers might be trying a little too hard to get the band back together. They now have the general manager (Daryl Morey), star player (Harden), starting power forward (Tucker) and a key wing reserve (House) from the
Houston Rockets of three years ago; the Rockets also drafted Harrell during the Harden era. When does Trevor Ariza roll into town? Anybody know what Ryan Anderson is up to?
Nonetheless, for all the talk about the strength of the East, I actually think this is a great moment for the Sixers to break through. There are many very good teams in this conference but not a single dominant one. Embiid is one of the two best players in the East; only
Giannis Antetokounmpo rivals him in this conference.
Harden might have a bounce-back year in him and will surely have better help this time around. The addition of Tucker, Melton and House means the Sixers can grind out ugly wins even if Harden isn’t rolling; surely they won’t get punked on the glass like they were against the Heat. Melton, in particular, is one of the league’s most underrated players and is on a great contract; squeezing him into Green’s salary slot was a master stroke.
Of course, you can flip that analysis on its head too: If the Sixers aren’t going to break though this season, it’s hard to be optimistic about any year beyond this. Harden, Tucker, Embiid and
Tobias Harris getting older, plus the twin weights of the luxury tax and lack of draft picks, will likely tow this team back closer to .500 in future seasons. There is
some youth here, but the aforementioned drags more than offsets any upticks from the Maxey-Melton-Milton-Thybulle-Reed contingent.
This, then, is the put-up-or-shut-up year for The Process, in all likelihood the best chance this group will ever have to put up a banner in their dump of an arena (hey, don’t shoot the messenger). If they don’t come reasonably close, there probably will be some uncomfortable discussions next summer.
OK, I’ve dithered long enough … time for me to shoot my shot.
Yes, this team could go sideways for a thousand reasons. But the thing I can’t help but get back to is that people are sleeping on the height of this team’s playoff ceiling. First of all, some matchups are basically over before Game 1 because of Embiid alone (Hi, Toronto). The Sixers will have the best player on the court in any series that isn’t against
Milwaukee,
Golden State, the
LA Clippers or
Denver; in that case, they’ll only
arguably have the best player.
Behind Embiid, they’ll have one of the league’s elite pick-and-roll weapons, a third scorer just coming into his own in Maxey, and multiple versions of the switchable, 3-and-D role players who every playoff run requires and last season’s team lacked. We’ve barely mentioned Harris, an overpaid but good player who averaged 17 points on 56 percent true shooting last season in an “off” year.
I’m not sure this team will have the best record in the East in the regular season, not with Embiid playing 65-ish games and Harden putting it into cruise control on random January nights in Detroit. But the improved depth should be a big factor in managing the odometer on Harden and Embiid; Philly should finish in the top-three seeds without putting too much strain on its key players. Get them to a postseason series healthy, and I like how they match up against the Bucks, Celtics and
Nets.
So here goes: I’m picking Philly to win it all, and Embiid to win MVP. Check back in nine months for a good laugh.
Prediction: 54-28, second in East
Sixers by BORG and BORD$
• BORG — Projected value over replacement, per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger’s BORG formula
• BORD$ — Projected value for 2022-23 according to Hollinger’s BORD$ formula
• (R) — Rookie, no projection available
• (2w) — Player on two-way contract
Potential Closing 5
| PLAYER | POS | BORG | BORD$ |
|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | PG | 2.14 | $19,520,900 |
| James Harden | SG | 5.42 | $48,388,479 |
| Tobias Harris | SF | 3.44 | $31,396,332 |
| P.J. Tucker | PF | 0.59 | $5,840,927 |
| Joel Embiid | C | 7.79 | $65,431,102 |
Likely rest of roster
| PLAYER | POS | BORG | BORD$ |
|---|
| De’Anthony Melton | SG | 3.08 | $21,618,922 |
| Montrezl Harrell | C | 2.24 | $15,789,256 |
| Matisse Thybulle | SG | 2.01 | $14,586,206 |
| Furkan Korkmaz | SF | 1.05 | $7,948,345 |
| Georges Niang | PF | 0.86 | $6,753,385 |
| Shake Milton | PG | 0.78 | $6,557,612 |
| Danuel House | SF | 0.07 | $2,386,351 |
| Isaiah Joe | SG | -0.02 | Min |
| Jaden Springer | PG | -0.46 | Min |
| Paul Reed | C | -0.85 | Min |
| Julian Champagnie (R) (2w) | SF | -- | Min |
| Charlie Brown (2w) | SF | -0.30 | Min |
