The Official Tank Thread / Draft Lottery Thread

[Fish on The Sand]

If Arizona gets a point tonight, who gets better draft odds?

We do because they swept the season series. This isn't looking likely though.

 

[Habsfan18]

So, unless we win the lottery, we're likely picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

Well, if we don’t win the lottery let’s just hope that each of the top 3 teams do. I mean it may be unlikely but it’s possible. Then we’d stay at 4.

But 7th would be pretty damn disappointing. Would be a typical ending to this season though.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

rip 3rd place

4th place before lottery it is

 

[Fish on The Sand]

So, unless we win the lottery, we're likely picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

Pretty much, but we do have almost a 30% chance of drafting to 3, and just below a 60% chance of drafting in the top 5.

 

[The Great Weal]

I can see Arizona do the same shit in 2016 by taking Wahlstrom from us. They did it with Keller, they will do it again.

 

[neil2005]

So, unless we win the lottery, we're likely picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

We all knew that point against WPG last week would somehow bite us in the a$$

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Well, if we don’t win the lottery let’s just hope that each of the top 3 teams do. I mean it may be unlikely but it’s possible. Then we’d stay at 4.

But 7th would be pretty damn disappointing. Would be a typical ending to this season though.

Thankfully 7th is only slightly more less likely than 4th. I'll be happy with staying in the top 5.

 

[habtastic]

If we don’t win the lottery, we have to hope that Arizona does.

Buffalo or Ottawa getting Dahlin will hurt us for a long, long time.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I can see Arizona do the same **** in 2016 by taking Wahlstrom from us. They did it with Keller, they will do it again.

Sergachev>Keller anyways. Sergachev will likely go down as the 3rd best player from that draft.

 

[Habs100]

Pretty much, but we do have almost a 30% chance of drafting to 3, and over 60% chance of drafting in the top 5.

The top 3 picks are open for a lottery for all teams who missed the playoffs. Each time one of the top 3 picks is won by someone not in the top 3, everyone's place, who wasn't behind the winning team, gets bumped down by 1.

So, only way we draft top 3 is if we win one of the 3 lotteries.
Only way we draft 4th is if Buffalo, Ottawa, and Arizona each win one of the 3 lotteries.
Only way we draft 5th is if one and only one team behind us wins the lottery.
Only way we draft 6th is if exactly 2 teams behind us win the lottery.
Only way we draft 7th is if exactly 3 teams behind us win the lottery.

A lot of calculations to figure out these odds. This website claims to have done them, see below. It looks like we have a 58% chance of picking top 5.
2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

TEAM	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Buffalo	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6
Ottawa	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9
Arizona	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2
Montreal	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3
Vancouver	8.5	8.7	8.9		8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3
Detroit	7.5	7.8	8.0			16.3	38.9	19.4	2.1
Chicago	6.5	6.8	7.1				26.0	39.5	13.1	1.0
Edmonton	6.0	6.3	6.7					36.8	36.0	7.8	0.4
NY Rangers	5.0	5.3	5.7						48.8	30.7	4.3	0.1
NY Islanders	3.5	3.8	4.1							60.5	25.7	2.4	0.0
Carolina	3.0	3.3	3.6								69.6	19.4	1.1	0.0
Calgary	2.5	2.7	3.0									78.0	13.3	0.4	0.0
Dallas	2.0	2.2	2.4										85.5	7.8	0.1
Colorado	1.5	1.7	1.8											91.8	3.2
Florida	1.0	1.1	1.2												96.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Fish on The Sand]

If we don’t win the lottery, we have to hope that Arizona does.

Buffalo or Ottawa getting Dahlin will hurt us for a long, long time.

Nah, they're too incompetent. They'll just waste him like Ottawa did with Karlsson and Buffalo is doing with Eichel.

 

[The Great Weal]

Sergachev>Keller anyways. Sergachev will likely go down as the 3rd best player from that draft.

Don't think so. Keller is better imo, and McAvoy would go 3 in a redraft.

 

[Max2]

It's a deep draft. Which one of these is underwhelming to you:

Dahlin ??
Svechnikov ??
Zadina ??
Wahlstrom ??
Boqvist ??
Hugues ??
Dobson ??

Dobson and Wahlstrom are giving me bad vibes......that Tkachuk guy as well.

 

[yianik]

So, unless we win the lottery, we're likely picking 5th, 6th, or 7th.

A 2.8% chance at 4th, 26% chance at 5th, 6th is favourite at 34% and 8 % at 7th. But also means a 29% chance at the top 3. So likely 5th or 6th.

 

[Habs100]

Thankfully 7th is only slightly more less likely than 4th. I'll be happy with staying in the top 5.

according to tankathon.com, there's about a 68% point chance we pick 5th, 6th, or 7th, and 32% chance of picking top 4.

If we didn't have that winnipeg point, we'd have a 58% chance of picking 5th or 6th and 42% chance of picking to 4; plus we could say Bergevin is such a bad GM that we finished below Arizona.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

The top 3 picks are open for a lottery for all teams who missed the playoffs. Each time one of the top 3 picks is won by someone not in the top 3, everyone's place, who wasn't behind the winning team, gets bumped down by 1.

So, only way we draft top 3 is if we win one of the 3 lotteries.
Only way we draft 4th is if Buffalo, Ottawa, and Arizona each win one of the 3 lotteries.
Only way we draft 5th is if one and only one team behind us wins the lottery.
Only way we draft 6th is if exactly 2 teams behind us win the lottery.
Only way we draft 7th is if exactly 3 teams behind us win the lottery.

A lot of calculations to figure out these odds. This website claims to have done them, see below. It looks like we have a 58% chance of picking top 5.
2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

TEAM	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Buffalo	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6
Ottawa	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9
Arizona	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2
Montreal	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3
Vancouver	8.5	8.7	8.9		8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3
Detroit	7.5	7.8	8.0			16.3	38.9	19.4	2.1
Chicago	6.5	6.8	7.1				26.0	39.5	13.1	1.0
Edmonton	6.0	6.3	6.7					36.8	36.0	7.8	0.4
NY Rangers	5.0	5.3	5.7						48.8	30.7	4.3	0.1
NY Islanders	3.5	3.8	4.1							60.5	25.7	2.4	0.0
Carolina	3.0	3.3	3.6								69.6	19.4	1.1	0.0
Calgary	2.5	2.7	3.0									78.0	13.3	0.4	0.0
Dallas	2.0	2.2	2.4										85.5	7.8	0.1
Colorado	1.5	1.7	1.8											91.8	3.2
Florida	1.0	1.1	1.2												96.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That backs up everything I said (except the 60% part (I later edited that before you posted this). We have 28.7% chance of landing a top 3 pick.

 

[Habs100]

A 2.8% chance at 4th, 26% chance at 5th, 6th is favourite at 34% and 8 % at 7th. But also means a 29% chance at the top 3. So likely 5th or 6th.

60% chance at 5th or 6th; 40% chance not. It's quite spread out.

 

[The Great Weal]

We need the WS jinx for the yotes to win

 

[Habs100]

That backs up everything I said (except the 60% part (I later edited that before you posted this). We have 28.7% chance of landing a top 3 pick.

Yeah a 71.3% chance we don't pick top 3, and a 68.5% chance we don't pick top 4. We're going to have to get lucky.

 

[ToNedOuT]

Ryan Miller is going to get a shutout

 

[Habs100]

Dobson and Wahlstrom are giving me bad vibes......that Tkachuk guy as well.

Well Wahlstrom's going to Harvard, not exactly a power house program for producing NHL all star's.

 

[The Great Weal]

Miller with a SHUTOUT. SHUTOUT. SHUTOUT.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Yeah a 71.3% chance we don't pick top 3, and a 68.5% chance we don't pick top 4. We're going to have to get lucky.

For sure, but its not like we have long odds to overcome. Picks 4-7 are pretty much interchangeable anyways.

 

[Habaneros]

rip 3rd place

4th place before lottery it is

if Vegas wasnt in the NHL,We get 3rd....

 

[Max2]

Well Wahlstrom's going to Harvard, not exactly a power house program for producing NHL all star's.

Precisely