Speculation: The narrative in TOR has changed so quickly

[Dekes For Days]

Now I'll admit I'm not up on a lot of the newer expressions, so if there is a new meaning to phrase "every single" I sincerely apologize.

Yes, Leafs had their best defensive results this past year, which is clearly seen when looking at both basic and advanced stats, as well as the eye test. Notice how "defensive results" is very clearly stated in the bolded quote. We are not discussing metrics that measure both defense and goaltending at the same time, like goals against. Everybody is aware that goaltending dragged down goals against this year, but that has nothing to do with our defensive results. This has been explained to you multiple times now, so please don't misrepresent the discussion.

 

[Zybalto]

Thats included in high danger scoring chances.

High danger save % was virtually unchanged as well.

Check out medium danger save % this year compared to the last few.

All those shots no screen, not tipped shots that somehow blew through our keepers will be reflected there.

 

[The Podium]

Now now boys, don't be trying to change the discussion again.

Let recap for those that came in late.

Dekey claimed:



Now I'll admit I'm not up on a lot of the newer expressions, so if there is a new meaning to phrase "every single" I sincerely apologize. But if it means what I think it means, then either goals against per game is not a defensive stat, or the dekester was incorrect since the GA/Game was the worst it's been in the past 4 seasons.

Should we make a poll?

I don’t see the point in arguing semantics. Breaking it up into its constituent parts paints a more appropriate picture. Not to mention it is supported by the fact that Andersen had his worst year of his career and we had a carousel of poor backup options before Campbell.

 

[egd27]

Yes, Leafs had their best defensive results this past year, which is clearly seen when looking at both basic and advanced stats, as well as the eye test. Notice how "defensive results" is very clearly stated in the bolded quote. We are not discussing metrics that measure both defense and goaltending at the same time, like goals against. Everybody is aware that goaltending dragged down goals against this year, but that has nothing to do with our defensive results. This has been explained to you multiple times now, so please don't misrepresent the discussion.

Thank you for clarifying.

I will no longer consider the amount of goals a team allows to be a pertinent discussion point when talking about team defence.

And when you say "every single metric, both basic and "advanced", I now realize you don't mean the really really really basic ones. Like the number goals allowed for example.

Good talk

 

[Dekes For Days]

And when you say "every single metric, both basic and "advanced", I now realize you don't mean the really really really basic ones. Like the number goals allowed for example.

No, what I said was correct. Goals against is just a metric that measures defensive results combined with goaltending, not defensive results themselves. You are discussing something entirely different from what was being discussed, and then somehow accusing others of being wrong because you used something incorrectly.

 

[kb]

No, what I said was correct. Goals against is just a metric that measures defensive results combined with goaltending, not defensive results themselves. You are discussing something entirely different from what was being discussed, and then somehow accusing others of being wrong because you used something incorrectly.

More likely it's "intentionally misrepresented"

 

[egd27]

No, what I said was correct. Goals against is just a metric that measures defensive results combined with goaltending, not defensive results themselves. You are discussing something entirely different from what was being discussed, and then somehow accusing others of being wrong because you used something incorrectly.

Got it......GA/G is not considered a defensive metric in your world.
You can stop now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Got it......GA/G is not considered a defensive metric in your world.

It doesn't measure just defensive results in any world, unless you believe that goaltenders don't exist. It is a combination of defense and goaltending.

 

[egd27]

It doesn't measure just defensive results in any world, unless you believe that goaltenders don't exist. It is a combination of defense and goaltending.

See now you're confusing me.

How can a stat that is a combination of defense and goaltending not be considered a defensive metric?

You should have quit when I agreed with your last post.

 

[Cosmic Shame]

I included them below. Yes the Leafs are near the bottom, but this year they improved to lower middle of the league in most defensive categories.

Still a huge margin for improvement, but trending in the right direction.

Hey Podium,
I haven't looked into these stats before and find them interesting. How are they adjusted for the shorter season in 2019/20? Have they been normalized and rounded for an 82 game season to compare between the seasons? It does look like a solid improvement if it takes the less games into account.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Shanahan probablt told Dunbas to get lost and is now running the show

 

[Zybalto]

It doesn't measure just defensive results in any world, unless you believe that goaltenders don't exist. It is a combination of defense and goaltending.

Is there anything simpler than this?

How do we measure goaltending?

By how many shots they stopped right? Save% is the most sited stat when discussing goalie effectiveness. Almost everyone serious gave up on GAA due to the fact it didn't take into account the D in front of the goalie. Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is an improving stat used to try and improve on save% but save% is usually pretty accurate IMO.

How do we measure D? By how many shots they give up is most common but scoring chances against is gaining popularity and the Expected Goals Against (xGA) stat is an effort to combine all the underlying stats into a single stat that will describe defensive performance.

Goals against is the result of team D and goaltending performance. It ain't rocket science.

Using GA to pass only judgment on team defence is just silly.

I guess the Blues had one of the worst D in the NHL the first half of the season before they magically became the best in the 2nd half the year thay won the cup? Binnington had nothing to do with it?

 

[Gallagbi]

Is there anything simpler than this?

How do we measure goaltending?

By how many shots they stopped right? Save% is the most sited stat when discussing goalie effectiveness. Almost everyone serious gave up on GAA due to the fact it didn't take into account the D in front of the goalie. Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is an improving stat used to try and improve on save% but save% is usually pretty accurate IMO.

How do we measure D? By how many shots they give up is most common but scoring chances against is gaining popularity and the Expected Goals Against (xGA) stat is an effort to combine all the underlying stats into a single stat that will describe defensive performance.

Goals against is the result of team D and goaltending performance. It ain't rocket science.

Using GA to pass only judgment on team defence is just silly.

I guess the Blues had one of the worst D in the NHL the first half of the season before they magically became the best in the 2nd half the year thay won the cup? Binnington had nothing to do with it?

This is a great summary

 

[Dekes For Days]

See now you're confusing me.
How can a stat that is a combination of defense and goaltending not be considered a defensive metric?

You use eggs in a cake, and eggs come from chickens, and chickens are alive. Using your logical process, does that mean cakes are alive?

You only have to ask yourself one question. Do goaltenders exist? If your answer is yes, then goals against is not a measure of just defensive results.

 

[Menzinger]

Is there anything simpler than this?

How do we measure goaltending?

By how many shots they stopped right? Save% is the most sited stat when discussing goalie effectiveness. Almost everyone serious gave up on GAA due to the fact it didn't take into account the D in front of the goalie. Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is an improving stat used to try and improve on save% but save% is usually pretty accurate IMO.

How do we measure D? By how many shots they give up is most common but scoring chances against is gaining popularity and the Expected Goals Against (xGA) stat is an effort to combine all the underlying stats into a single stat that will describe defensive performance.

Goals against is the result of team D and goaltending performance. It ain't rocket science.

Using GA to pass only judgment on team defence is just silly.

I guess the Blues had one of the worst D in the NHL the first half of the season before they magically became the best in the 2nd half the year thay won the cup? Binnington had nothing to do with it?

Great post.

I just dont get the circling the wagon around certain basic stats like thisnornplus minus as well when there sre others that do a much better job at contexutalizing on ice play

 

[The Podium]

Hey Podium,
I haven't looked into these stats before and find them interesting. How are they adjusted for the shorter season in 2019/20? Have they been normalized and rounded for an 82 game season to compare between the seasons? It does look like a solid improvement if it takes the less games into account.

Some are averages others are raw numbers. Not all of them account for the shortened season so you are right, the numbers should be adjusted.

 

[egd27]

You use eggs in a cake, and eggs come from chickens, and chickens are alive. Using your logical process, does that mean cakes are alive?

You only have to ask yourself one question. Do goaltenders exist? If your answer is yes, then goals against is not a measure of just defensive results.

I have no idea what the hell the cake stuff is all about, but yes goaltenders exist.

They contribute occasionally to team offensive metrics by picking up an assist here or there, but they play a much greater role in team defensive metrics. What with them being part of the team and all.

But now you would like me to believe the number of goals allowed by a hockey team should not be considered a team defensive metric because it includes a goaltender (even though he is a member of the team.)

So if it is not a team defensive metric, then I must conclude the team members (that are not goalies) have no influence on the goals that are scored against the team.

I dunno Dekes, that just seems wrong.

 

[The Podium]

I have no idea what the hell the cake stuff is all about, but yes goaltenders exist.

They contribute occasionally to team offensive metrics by picking up an assist here or there, but they play a much greater role in team defensive metrics. What with them being part of the team and all.

But now you would like me to believe the number of goals allowed by a hockey team should not be considered a team defensive metric because it includes a goaltender (even though he is a member of the team.)

So if it is not a team defensive metric, then I must conclude the team members (that are not goalies) have no influence on the goals that are scored against the team.

I dunno Dekes, that just seems wrong.

You are being difficult on purpose.

You are arguing semantics, you agree with what everyone is saying but are trying to argue that goalies should be included in the defence.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But now you would like me to believe the number of goals allowed by a hockey team should not be considered a team defensive metric because it includes a goaltender (even though he is a member of the team.)

Various defensive metrics measure the quantity and quality of shots, chances, opportunities, etc. that the team of skaters allow in front of a goaltender. The goaltender then faces those results, and then mixed with his own play, goals against results are produced. We are, and always have been, discussing the defensive metrics, not goals against metrics that include the play of the goaltender, because we are interested in what the team of skaters in front of the goaltender did. We already know the goaltenders played worse this year. This distinction has been explained to you multiple times by multiple people, so there should be no reason for confusion.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hey Podium,
I haven't looked into these stats before and find them interesting. How are they adjusted for the shorter season in 2019/20? Have they been normalized and rounded for an 82 game season to compare between the seasons? It does look like a solid improvement if it takes the less games into account.

We can look at our league rankings in per-60 form to adjust for things like different season lengths, and we can see the improvement we had this season. For example:

Shots against/60

2016-2017: 28th
2017-2018: 28th
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 19th
19/20 Keefe: 17th

Scoring chances against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 23rd
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 18th
19/20 Keefe: 16th

Expected goals against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 24th
2018-2019: 24th
2019-2020: 14th
19/20 Keefe: 10th

This despite experiencing the most injuries to our defense, by far, this year, mostly under Keefe.

 

[Gallagbi]

We can look at our league rankings in per-60 form to adjust for things like different season lengths, and we can see the improvement we had this season. For example:

Shots against/60

2016-2017: 28th
2017-2018: 28th
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 19th
19/20 Keefe: 17th

Scoring chances against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 23rd
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 18th
19/20 Keefe: 16th

Expected goals against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 24th
2018-2019: 24th
2019-2020: 14th
19/20 Keefe: 10th

This despite experiencing the most injuries to our defense, by far, this year, mostly under Keefe.

HDCA don't look so hot though based on what Podium posted, correct?

 

[A1LeafNation]

We can look at our league rankings in per-60 form to adjust for things like different season lengths, and we can see the improvement we had this season. For example:

Shots against/60

2016-2017: 28th
2017-2018: 28th
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 19th
19/20 Keefe: 17th

Scoring chances against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 23rd
2018-2019: 25th
2019-2020: 18th
19/20 Keefe: 16th

Expected goals against/60

2016-2017: 25th
2017-2018: 24th
2018-2019: 24th
2019-2020: 14th
19/20 Keefe: 10th

This despite experiencing the most injuries to our defense, by far, this year, mostly under Keefe.

Pretty nice but won't believe it until we do it for a full season

 

[egd27]

You are being difficult on purpose.

You are arguing semantics, you agree with what everyone is saying but are trying to argue that goalies should be included in the defence.

Everyone on the team should be included in the team defence, but I am not arguing that a goalie is a defenceman.

I am arguing that he number of goals scored against a hockey team make up a part of a hockey team's defensive metrics.

If you don't agree with that, please tell me what group of metrics goals against belongs in?

 

[Dekes For Days]

HDCA don't look so hot though based on what Podium posted, correct?

High danger chances against haven't really changed much the entire time. They've remained at basically the same spot just below league average every year. Perhaps that is part of the issue in terms of perception? High danger chances are what register the most by the eye test, and will most stick in memory, and with those changing the least of all the defensive metrics, we have a scenario where high danger chances represent a bigger percentage of the expected goals against total than before, even though the actual amount of high danger chances allowed hasn't changed.

Perhaps because all of the other defensive metrics have improved so considerably around it in comparison, it's creating a faulty perception when mixed with the worse goaltending. In the minds/memories of many, most goals just get added on and retroactively counted as high-danger chances, and everything else tends to fade into the background.

 

[The Podium]

Everyone on the team should be included in the team defence, but I am not arguing that a goalie is a defenceman.

I am arguing that he number of goals scored against a hockey team make up a part of a hockey team's defensive metrics.

If you don't agree with that, please tell me what group of metrics goals against belongs in?

Obviously I and everyone will agree with that. You have gotten so far away from the original argument you lost yourself here.