Line Combos: The Line Construction Thread

[g00n]

I am just telling you what the rules are. how is that an excuse?

if a faceoff is not won at the dot and other caps players fight and win control of the puck, the fo win goes to the caps face off taker.

here....in this face off the puck actually goes into the Oil control sector. Johansson beats the Oilers to the puck and passes to Ov. that FO win goes to Backstrom.

Meanwhile you assume pointing out the value of the wingers in a face off is an excuse for failure, while ive twice now pointed out Johansson being good at this.

Nothing you've said explains Brouwer's major discrepancy in ES vs PP faceoffs. Did you look at the stats? Brouwer's split, as I said, is unique among the Caps in how drastic it is. If your explanation was true then other Caps would have the same discrepancy. They don't, at least not anywhere near that seen in Brouwer's stats.

And none of the PP man advantage factors have anything to do with why Brouwer is below 50% at even strength. If you're trying to pump up Mojo as some magical possession factor on these faceoffs for Backstrom then why isn't he having that effect on a line with Brouwer and Burakovsky? Unless you think Brouwer is winning draws to Bura and then Bura is losing them?

What exactly are you saying?

 

[g00n]

Let me put it another way. The advantage on PP draws has a major effect on Brouwer's overall number. With Backstrom there's less of a flip because NB has a winning percentage overall at ES. Problem is, few Caps have a winning percentage at ES.

Kuznetsov is an example of the reverse effect on the PP draw. He's got a bad percentage even with the advantage, though the sample size is small. Same small size applies to Brouwer's PK percentage, which is actually the only one above 50% on the PK.

 

[g00n]

Backstrom ES: 54.0%
Backstrom tot FO: 54.7%

Brouwer ES: 44.4%
Brouwer tot FO: 58.2%

Massive boost from special teams for Brouwer, almost none for Backstrom.


Last year...

Backstrom ES: 49.3%
Backstrom tot FO: 50.1%

Brouwer ES: 50.4%
Brouwer tot FO: 51.2%


Less than a full point difference in all cases except Brouwer PP vs ES this year. If Mojo is so good at winning possession after the draw like you say then Burakovsky must be several degrees worse and offset that tremendously to explain this without concluding that Brouwer has just been losing draws more at ES. WHATEVER the explanation for his declining ES numbers this year, it's just a fact that his gaudy outlier PP percentage is much higher than last year and boosting his overall stat, more so than anyone else.

 

[txpd]

i would say that Wilson and Burakovsky have an effect there.

maybe Brouwer has lost his faceoff chops and maybe Backstrom has found some. My take is that both of these players are about the same as what they used to be at faceoffs. the difference is what is around them.

 

[txpd]

Nothing you've said explains Brouwer's major discrepancy in ES vs PP faceoffs. Did you look at the stats? Brouwer's split, as I said, is unique among the Caps in how drastic it is. If your explanation was true then other Caps would have the same discrepancy. They don't, at least not anywhere near that seen in Brouwer's stats.

And none of the PP man advantage factors have anything to do with why Brouwer is below 50% at even strength. If you're trying to pump up Mojo as some magical possession factor on these faceoffs for Backstrom then why isn't he having that effect on a line with Brouwer and Burakovsky? Unless you think Brouwer is winning draws to Bura and then Bura is losing them?

What exactly are you saying?

what i am saying is that a face off percentage is effected by the players around him. that's its a team stat. many to most faceoffs are not clean wins. they are marginal wins or draws that are then won by the other players on the ice.

again. backstrom doesn't cleanly win the face off in the video above. Johansson wins that face off for backstrom by winning the loose puck.

right now, the caps pp seems to be working. that includes the group battle for loose pucks including those on face offs.

 

[g00n]

i would say that Wilson and Burakovsky have an effect there.

So you think Bura and Wilson, who have been pretty good with the puck in general, are incapable of collecting a won faceoff enough to plunge Brouwer's even strength FO numbers? And nobody else is playing with linemates who have that effect? That this is the first time Brouwer's had a rookie on his line? That the awesomeness of Mojo isn't helping as much as Bura is hurting?



Come on. I think maybe the simpler and more likely explanation is that Brouwer isn't winning as many ES faceoffs as he did last year.

 

[g00n]

And let's be honest, here. It's only about 1/4 of the season so far. Things could level out eventually, and his ES% is only a few FOW shy of breaking even. I think the main point is that he may be getting OVERPLAYED by Trotz because of his overall numbers, which are inflated by his insane PP% (73.7%). The PP number is not a bad thing. It's also not normal and will probably regress.

The takeaway here is the lines need shuffling and/or the younger forwards need to learn how to win draws. The coach needs to have confidence in them and put them out there in situations that help the team score. Brouwer isn't doing that for them.

Brouwer is 3rd among forwards in TOI/game at a bit over 18 minutes. You talk about Ovie needing to produce more but at just about 2 and a half more minutes per game Ovie still has more than double Brouwer's goals and exactly double his points. Both Ovie and Brouwer are getting about half their goals from the PP and half even strength. And they're both on PP1, with Brouwer parked in the highest scoring area there is in hockey.

Does Brouwer need to do more, too?

 

[txpd]

So you think Bura and Wilson, who have been pretty good with the puck in general, are incapable of collecting a won faceoff enough to plunge Brouwer's even strength FO numbers? And nobody else is playing with linemates who have that effect? That this is the first time Brouwer's had a rookie on his line? That the awesomeness of Mojo isn't helping as much as Bura is hurting?



Come on. I think maybe the simpler and more likely explanation is that Brouwer isn't winning as many ES faceoffs as he did last year.

I am saying that Wilson's strength has helped 19 increase his percentage and bura's 19 year old lack there of is costing some. is that hard to believe?

 

[ChibiPooky]

Winter Classic lines, Beaglechuk edition:

8 - 19 - 83
90 - 92/65 - 20
21 - 16 - 42
25 - 46 - 43

88 - 74
27 - 2
38 - 52

 

[BobRouse]

Winter Classic lines, Beaglechuk edition:

8 - 19 - 83
90 - 92/65 - 20
21 - 16 - 42
25 - 46 - 43

88 - 74
27 - 2
38 - 52

Beagle is universally loved by all coaches that much is apparent. It isn't hard to see why either. Hunter was right...he works harder than everyone on the ice.

I'd prefer 43 on the first line personally but I'm fine with Beagle there when we are even or up on the scoreboard.

 

[ChibiPooky]

To be clear, those lines are from the practice today, not the official lines for tomorrow.

 

[BobRouse]

To be clear, those lines are from the practice today, not the official lines for tomorrow.

Whatever...we all know at some point Beagle will be on the 1RW. You can bet on it even if they don't start that way.

As long as Brouwer or MJ aren't with 8/19 I think I'm good.

 

[tycoonheart]

Beags and Latta have pretty good chemistry together. Whereas he won't/hasn't had any on the top line. Ever.