Blue Jays Discussion: The "Let's blow up the team" edition

[ShaneFalco]

That tweet basically tells me that he is trying to insinuate "take less Bautista so we can use money to address other areas and make this team better to win a WS."

There is no negotiation

 

[Suntouchable13]

There is no negotiation

Jeez, no wonder he has not signed yet.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Between 1B, OF, and filling in at 2B/3B, he could definitely get regular playing time. But yeah, he probably wants to go somewhere that he'll have a regular spot.

He's just... pretty much perfect. wRC+ of 120 or higher against righties each of the last three years. Sit him in favour of Pearce/Upton against lefties. If they could somehow sign both him AND Bautista, I would say the lineup is significantly better than last year.

vs. RHP
1. Travis 2B
2. Donaldson 3B
3. Bautista RF
4. Morales DH
5. Tulo SS
6. Valbuena 1B
7. Pearce LF
8. Martin C
9. Pillar CF

vs. LHP
1. Travis 2B
2. Donaldson 3B
3. Bautista RF
4. Pearce 1B
5. Morales DH
6. Tulo SS
7. Martin C
8. Upton LF
9. Pillar CF

You can afford both and fit under the $165MM budget, however, you'd also be going with your bullpen as is to start the season.

 

[phillipmike]

There is no negotiation

Wonder if Shapiro has brought that up when talking to him.

Jose: I want to come back to the Jays.
Shapiro: We will offer you a 1 year 8M deal...
Jose: 17.2M is the least i wou...
Shapiro: "...either meet it or it is what it is"
Jose: .... get me a pen!

 

[Discoverer]

You can afford both and fit under the $165MM budget, however, you'd also be going with your bullpen as is to start the season.

Yeah, that's the only reason I question whether or not it can fit. I'm ok with going cheap in the bullpen, but I would still like to see one more (lefty, preferably) reliever added.

The MLBTR prediction for Valbuena was 2 years, $14 million. If they could somehow get Bautista at $15 million and Valbuena at $5 million for 2016, that would leave a few million to allot to the bullpen.

I don't know. I doubt the can make it work, but it would be awesome.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

Bautista and his agent failed when it came how the market shaped up. Everyone says that EE and his agent failed but they still got a contract better than the QO.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Wonder if Shapiro has brought that up when talking to him.

Jose: I want to come back to the Jays.
Shapiro: We will offer you a 1 year 8M deal...
Jose: 17.2M is the least i wou...
Shapiro: "...either meet it or it is what it is"
Jose: .... get me a pen!

Fair to say that in hindsight Jose should have accepted the qualifying offer, no questions asked?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah, that's the only reason I question whether or not it can fit. I'm ok with going cheap in the bullpen, but I would still like to see one more (lefty, preferably) reliever added.

The MLBTR prediction for Valbuena was 2 years, $14 million. If they could somehow get Bautista at $15 million and Valbuena at $5 million for 2016, that would leave a few million to allot to the bullpen.

I don't know. I doubt the can make it work, but it would be awesome.

I've got Bautista plugged into a model at USD$16.5MM, Valbuena at USD$6.2MM like his comparable Pearce got. Leaves only 500k left under the budget. However, if you make Smoak disappear (given that he would be extremely redundant), you could sign Boone Logan or Jerry Blevins to ~USD$4.5MM.

 

[masarume]

I've got Bautista plugged into a model at USD$16.5MM, Valbuena at USD$6.2MM like his comparable Pearce got. Leaves only 500k left under the budget. However, if you make Smoak disappear (given that he would be extremely redundant), you could sign Boone Logan or Jerry Blevins to ~USD$4.5MM.

At this point would anybody take Smoak for his contract?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Zips projections for the Cardinals are out:

- Dexter Fowler: .342 wOBA, 108 OPS+
- Michael Saunders: .338 wOBA, 112 OPS+

I'll take the cheaper, short-term one, please.

 

[zeke]

Something seems to be missing from those stats, Mr.Honest.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If they can't outright dump Smoak than something similar to the Revere/Storen deal akes sense to me. Obviously the return won't be as good as Storen was expected to be(which didn't work out, but then did when we flipped him for Benoit), but a buy low on a reliever someone doesn't want, maybe it works out like Grilli and Benoit did.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Something seems to be missing from those stats, Mr.Honest.

It is the zWAR, Muffin? I didn't want to draw attention to it because I was trying to be fair.

- Dexter Fowler: 2.8 zWAR (552 PA, -6 Zdefensive score, as a CF)
- Michael Saunders: 1.7 zWAR (427 PA, 1 Zdefensive score, as a corner outfielder)

I'll take the cheaper, short-term one, please.

 

[Kurtz]

It is the zWAR, Muffin? I didn't want to draw attention to it because I was trying to be fair.

- Dexter Fowler: 2.8 zWAR (552 PA, -6 Zdefensive score, as a CF)
- Michael Saunders: 1.7 zWAR (427 PA, 1 Zdefensive score, as a corner outfielder)

I'll take the cheaper, short-term one, please.

Most of these advanced stats that incorporate defense are rife with flaws, sadly. For instance, if I'm reading it correctly, Fowler takes a huge penalty for being listed as a CF, while Saunders, a terrible fielder, somehow comes off with a shiny defensive score.

As an example, we know that if we got Fowler, we'd be playing him in the corner. As a corner fielder, wouldn't his zdefensive score shoot through the roof, causing the ZWar to explode as well?

 

[Walshy7]

why do the bluejays do their tour thing in early Jan? im sure there is a reason, but spring training starts late feb early march I think. So why not do the tour early feb? gives the players a couple extra weeks off and at least closer to spring training they are more fresh in peoples minds

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Most of these advanced stats that incorporate defense are rife with flaws, sadly. For instance, if I'm reading it correctly, Fowler takes a huge penalty for being listed as a CF, while Saunders, a terrible fielder, somehow comes off with a shiny defensive score.

As an example, we know that if we got Fowler, we'd be playing him in the corner. As a corner fielder, wouldn't his zdefensive score shoot through the roof, causing the ZWar to explode as well?

Depends. Not all guys experience the jump when moved to a corner (ala Eaton), especially not at the age of 30.

Also, zWAR (similar to fWAR) actually rewards players based upon their position. So CF, C, SS, as an example, have an easier time compiling WAR than not up the middle positional players. So, even though his defensive metric would likely be less harsh if he was in LF, his ability to drive zWAR would also have to be trended downward.

A good example of this can be seen simply through viewing the two players in question. If you take away the benefit of the added PA for Fowler, the two have a zWAR rate over 427 PA of 2.2 for Fowler vs. 1.7 for Saunders. That is with a slightly higher wOBA for Fowler, and a slightly higher OPS+ for Saunders. Certainly not material enough to difference to produce .5 extra zWAR. Positional weighting helps create that difference. Pretty neat, actually.

 

[Kurtz]

Depends. Not all guys experience the jump when moved to a corner (ala Eaton), especially not at the age of 30.

Also, zWAR (similar to fWAR) actually rewards players based upon their position. So CF, C, SS, as an example, have an easier time compiling WAR than not up the middle positional players. So, even though his defensive metric would likely be less harsh if he was in LF, his ability to drive zWAR would also have to be trended downward.

A good example of this can be seen simply through viewing the two players in question. If you take away the benefit of the added PA for Fowler, the two have a zWAR rate over 427 PA of 2.2 for Fowler vs. 1.7 for Saunders. That is with a slightly higher wOBA for Fowler, and a slightly higher OPS+ for Saunders. Certainly not material enough to difference to produce .5 extra zWAR. Positional weighting helps create that difference. Pretty neat, actually.

I don't know what formula zWar uses, but couldn't the ~0.5 WAR difference come from the difference in their base-running score? (assuming zWar uses that in their formula, which I hope and expect they do).

If we include that component, we're left with baserunning and other offensive components explaining virtually all of the zWar score difference between the two players, meaning zWar is telling us that the difference in their defensive impact may be minimal...which we know, from seeing Saunders play defense, cannot be true.

 

[TF97]

My personal pick for the backup catcher position, Chris Iannetta, signed with Arizona.

 

[theaub]

Wonder if Shapiro has brought that up when talking to him.

Jose: I want to come back to the Jays.
Shapiro: We will offer you a 1 year 8M deal...
Jose: 17.2M is the least i wou...
Shapiro: "...either meet it or it is what it is"
Jose: .... get me a pen!

Bautista can wait until June and get more than $8M

The baseline for him if he waits is a pro-rated QO, so about $10M. I think he would get $12M or so if he waits, once teams start doing the opposite of what they are doing now and think of the inherent cost of trading prospects for a hitter of Jose's calibre

 

[The Nemesis]

My personal pick for the backup catcher position, Chris Iannetta, signed with Arizona.

Last I checked the Arizona catcher depth chart was still hot garbage. So this is likley his best chance to steal the job and get some additional GP he wouldn't get backing up behind a "real" starting catcher.

 

[Cor]

Jays filed at 3.1 for Stroman. He filed at 3.4. Odd they couldn't close that gap before hand.

Maybe working on something longer?

 

[TF97]

Last I checked the Arizona catcher depth chart was still hot garbage. So this is likley his best chance to steal the job and get some additional GP he wouldn't get backing up behind a "real" starting catcher.

Are you insinuating that Jeff Mathis is not a "real" starting catcher? Let's not say things that we can't take back now

 

[Canada4Gold]

Are the Jays still a file and trial team? If so the only way this avoid arbitration is a long term deal, which with Stroman right now I'd be completely down for.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Jays filed at 3.1 for Stroman. He filed at 3.4. Odd they couldn't close that gap before hand.

Maybe working on something longer?

They might have been a little further apart in negotiations before that. They file numbers that have to be realistic because in baseball the arbitrator choose 1 number of the other.

So the Jays could have been asking for 2.8 and Stroman 3.8 in negotiations but the numbers they file become closer because getting an extra 300k or so(the don't know what number each other are going to file when they file) is better than asking for 600k more and getting none more.

I'm hoping they come to an agreement on something longer. That buys up free agent years.

 

[Eyedea]

Only thing I can find is a John Lott article where he mentions that a source says Shapiro/Atkins will keep the trial and file policy. This was in January of last year when JD and the team filed numbers that were $450,000 apart. They agreed on a two year extension a few weeks later.