Speculation: The Future... 2017-18 and further

[Linkens Mastery]

My apologies if there is already a thread about this (I couldn't find it), but, I was wondering, who and where do you see this team being during the 2017-18 or further along.

During those years we only have Tarasenko, Statsny, Lehtera, and Reaves signed as forwards, then Pietrangelo and Boumeester signed on the defense.

Out of our current main roster, and prospects who do you think will be on the main roster then, and what type of lines do you think the Blues will be rolling along with the Salary and Salary cap.

I'll start off....

_______________________OFFENSE____________________
Schwartz(5.5 Mil)-(A)Statsny(7 Mil)-(A)Tarasenko(7 Mil) 19.5 Mil
(A)Steen(4.5 Mil)-Lehtera-(4.7 Mil)-Fabbri-(2.3 Mil) 11.5 Mil
Jaskin(2 Mil)-(R)Barbashev(l(1 Mil)-Rattie(1.6 Mil) 4.6 Mil
Berglund(1.5 Mil)-Brodziak(1.375 Mil)-Reaves(1.125 Mil) 4 Mil
(random FA for depth) 900 k

40.5 Mil Forwards

______________DEFENSE_____________
Lindbohm(2.5 Mil)-(C)Pietrangelo(7 Mil) 9.5 Mil
Edmundson(1.5 Mil)-(A)Shattenkirk(6. 5Mil) 8 Mil
Boumeester(5.4 Mil)-Parayko(1 Mil) 6.4 Mil
Schmaltz(1.1 Mil)

25 Mil Defense

___________GOALIES____________
Binnington(2.5 Mil) (Clear cut Starter)
Allen(2 Mil)

4.5 Mil Goalies

70 Mil total with a 71.4 cap (Just using this years cap because idk where the cap will be in 3 years)

Also think that Kirk Mueller will be the Head Coach.

I'm only using Berglund and Brodziak as place holders.

Click to read more...

 

[Renard]

The organization is loaded with prospects on defense. We have more than we can expect to work into our lineup. So I am expecting to see a couple of them get traded for an forward prospect.

Who knows about goaltending? Surely we can come up with a good goalie out of Allen, Copely, Binnington and Husso. But I have no idea which one comes out on top.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I'm liking either Mueller or Brad Shaw. My vote might even go to Brad Shaw - seems like a smart, no nonsense guy that could work well with our young guys.

I also doubt that Steen will sign for that little - but I would love it. I think it's more likely we see these lines

Schwartz Stastny Tarasenko
Fabbri Lehtera Jaskin
Sobotka(?) Barbashev Rattie
Caron ??? Reaves

Lindbohm Pietrangelo
Edmundson Shattenkirk
Bouwmeester Parayko

Allen
Binnington/Husso/Copley/Opilka, etc.

Steen really doesn't have a place if both Fabbri and Jaskin can play top 6. Perhaps he can play 3rd line, but I'm sure he'd rather go somewhere else and do that. Would love to have him - I just don't see it happening.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'm liking either Mueller or Brad Shaw. My vote might even go to Brad Shaw - seems like a smart, no nonsense guy that could work well with our young guys.

I also doubt that Steen will sign for that little - but I would love it. I think it's more likely we see these lines

Schwartz Stastny Tarasenko
Fabbri Lehtera Jaskin
Sobotka(?) Barbashev Rattie
Caron ??? Reaves

Lindbohm Pietrangelo
Edmundson Shattenkirk
Bouwmeester Parayko

Allen
Binnington/Husso/Copley/Opilka, etc.

Steen really doesn't have a place if both Fabbri and Jaskin can play top 6. Perhaps he can play 3rd line, but I'm sure he'd rather go somewhere else and do that. Would love to have him - I just don't see it happening.

I think Steen might cool down a little bit by 2017-18, that's why I dropped his Salary. He'll be 33/34 at the time. So he might actually be a 2nd/3rd line tweener by then.

 

[Girth Butcher]

Don't forget about the expansion teams.

It'll be interesting to see how the NHL handles the new teams and disperses players. I don't recall what happened back when Tampa/San Jose entered the league. I could see the Blues trying to keep some veterans around as expendable, so they can retain some of their youth for the future.

 

[EL Bandito]

I love this kind of thread. Here goes:

Schwartz-Stastny-Tarasenko
Steen-Fabbri-Jaskin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Backes

4th line who knows, possibly still Reaves of the current bunch but outside of him it might be a while befoAre other prospects are ready and of those I'd be looking at Adam Musil, Austin Poganski and Glenn Gawdin.

Shattenkirk-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Parayko
Edmundson-Schmaltz

or

Lindbohm-Pietrangelo
Edmundson-Shattenkirk
Dunn-Parayko

Lindbohm or Schmaltz, whichever develops better over the next few years.

Out of all of our goalies I think Copley and Husso will be the one's left standing. Just a hunch.

I've got Bouwmeester and Lehtera as trade bait to cut $10mil/yr off the cap and no room for Rattie and others so maybe a #1 goalie comes at some point or just more prospects. There's not much past the first few forward prospects so they really need to start restocking soon but I'm actually pretty high on MacEachern, Musil and Poganski. Those 3 I feel will be NHLers in some capacity. Outside of them Gawdin and it would be great if Liam Dunda could develop because he would be flat out nasty if so. Outside of those guys I'm not thrilled on any of the rest.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

It'll be interesting to see how the NHL handles the new teams and disperses players. I don't recall what happened back when Tampa/San Jose entered the league. I could see the Blues trying to keep some veterans around as expendable, so they can retain some of their youth for the future.

And you guys think Ott has no value!

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I love this kind of thread. Here goes:

Schwartz-Stastny-Tarasenko
Steen-Fabbri-Jaskin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Backes

4th line who knows, possibly still Reaves of the current bunch but outside of him it might be a while befoAre other prospects are ready and of those I'd be looking at Adam Musil, Austin Poganski and Glenn Gawdin.

Shattenkirk-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Parayko
Edmundson-Schmaltz

or

Lindbohm-Pietrangelo
Edmundson-Shattenkirk
Dunn-Parayko

Lindbohm or Schmaltz, whichever develops better over the next few years.

Out of all of our goalies I think Copley and Husso will be the one's left standing. Just a hunch.

I've got Bouwmeester and Lehtera as trade bait to cut $10mil/yr off the cap and no room for Rattie and others so maybe a #1 goalie comes at some point or just more prospects. There's not much past the first few forward prospects so they really need to start restocking soon but I'm actually pretty high on MacEachern, Musil and Poganski. Those 3 I feel will be NHLers in some capacity. Outside of them Gawdin and it would be great if Liam Dunda could develop because he would be flat out nasty if so. Outside of those guys I'm not thrilled on any of the rest.

Musil good, I line his size also (6'3 200+lbs), Maceachern put on a lot of muscle/weight since he was drafted (20 lbs) almost didn't recognize him in his new picture. Both seem like they could turn into decent bottom 6 guys.

 

[Ranksu]

Steen - Stastny - Tarasenko
Schwartz - Lehterä - Jaskin/Rarrie
Berglund - x - Fabbri
 - Sobotka - Reaves

Lindbohm - Pietro
Jbo - Parayko
Edmundson - Bortuzzo/Schmaltz

Shattenkirk <-> prospect center 20-23 year old +

x = Larkin, Reinhart, R. Strome? I just throw those c prospects. Pointing what Blues roster might look 2016-17 year.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Musil good, I line his size also (6'3 200+lbs), Maceachern put on a lot of muscle/weight since he was drafted (20 lbs) almost didn't recognize him in his new picture. Both seem like they could turn into decent bottom 6 guys.

I'd rank MacEachern higher than that, honestly. I think he's gonna come tearing out of the gate like Parayko has and take a lot of folks by surprise. Michigan State is no slouch of a program and he's doing quite well for himself there. A lot of our journos reported being pretty impressed with him at the prospect camp and stuff this year too. Idk, just a hunch but I think he's going to push for some serious minutes on this team before too terribly long. I love the college route. Let's the guys work on their physical conditioning and fly below the radar a little bit more than being in the Juniors spotlight in Canada, which may or may not inflate the ego a bit if you're not careful. Just look at Parayko's work ethic, fore example

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Also, it must be that time of year; starting to see Sobotka's name around again! He's off to a fantastic start this year for Omsk. All the same, I don't think there's a place for him on this team anymore. For me, as of this year he doesn't slot any higher than 4th line from now into the foreseeable future, and he won't accept that role here. I wonder what our compensation would be if he just stayed in the KHL and retired there? Do we get picks from that? I figure that's the most likely scenario given the current state of affairs.

Then again, maybe Jarmo/Davidson would want to get him back, since they brought him onto this team in the first place. Maybe Berglund + Sobotka + Backes for the apparently-on-the-outs Bobrovsky + Rychel/Jenner? I just don't think we'll ever see Sobotka in a Blues jersey again, and I'm completely ok with that

 

[Renard]

Also, it must be that time of year; starting to see Sobotka's name around again! He's off to a fantastic start this year for Omsk. All the same, I don't think there's a place for him on this team anymore. For me, as of this year he doesn't slot any higher than 4th line from now into the foreseeable future, and he won't accept that role here. I wonder what our compensation would be if he just stayed in the KHL and retired there? Do we get picks from that? I figure that's the most likely scenario given the current state of affairs.

Then again, maybe Jarmo/Davidson would want to get him back, since they brought him onto this team in the first place. Maybe Berglund + Sobotka + Backes for the apparently-on-the-outs Bobrovsky + Rychel/Jenner? I just don't think we'll ever see Sobotka in a Blues jersey again, and I'm completely ok with that

Sobotka was one of my favorite Blues players, but I don't expect him back either.

I doubt we get any compensation if Sobotka never returns to the NHL. All we have going for us is that if he returns to the NHL, he owes us one year of service before he can make any other NHL deal.

 

[Ranksu]

Sobotka was one of my favorite Blues players, but I don't expect him back either.

I doubt we get any compensation if Sobotka never returns to the NHL. All we have going for us is that if he returns to the NHL, he owes us one year of service before he can make any other NHL deal.

Why is that, I kind of understand Sobotka would be coming next season back on Blues. Maybe our russian friends know something?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

If we dump Gunnarsson and Ott, we're looking at nearly $6M extra in cap space. Add that to our current 2.5 and we have $8.5M. We can then pay Backes $5M (+.5M), Schwartz $4.5M (+2.1M), Brouwer $3.5M (-.1M), and extend Shattenkirk $6.5M (+2.25M), and we're still under cap by a lot. http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/st-louis-blues It's important to remember that Shatty's extension does not affect the cap until the following year ('17-'18)

Those are conservative numbers, but I would say Schwartz is likely to top out as a second/first line tweener and should be put on a bridge deal like listed above. Even if we pay Backes $6M (we probably shouldn't), and Shattenkirk $7M, we're still under the cap.

I don't think we have a huge problem ( a problem, perhaps, but not huge), but maybe I'm seeing this incorrectly. Parayko, Edmundson, and Lindbohm make this a much easier transition as we don't have to pay a #4. Unless Schwartz sets the world on fire this year (he's not in the same zip code as Tank), he shouldn't make more than $5.5M. Brouwer should not get big money, and if that's what he's looking for, he should walk. Rattie, Jaskin. and Edmundson are RFA and won't need big money. Our worries begin next year with Steen, but I think by then we'll be able to 1) replace him internally and let him walk, 2) get a hometown discount, 3) Trade Reaves, or 4) Have decided on one of Allen or Elliott and have an extra 1-2M to spare. I think we get a combination of 2, 3, and 4.

I still advocate that we ask for a hometown discount or let Backes walk. Depending on how this offseason looks (FA market, our own players progression [Schwartz]), we may not need Backes. Barbashev will be ready to take on the shutdown role sooner rather than later, and we can always trade for a 3C or just keep Berglund if Backes walks.

Unless we get blown out of the water for a deal revolving around Shattenkirk, we keep him and run with this D

Bouwmeester Pietrangelo
Edmundson Shattenkirk
Lindbohm Parayko

Schmaltz and Dunn are call-ups.

PP1: Steen Shattenkirk
PP2: Parayko Pietrangelo

Parayko gets PP minutes and moves up the lineup as needed, and Edmundson takes Gunnar's spot and can move in for Bouwmeester when more power is needed. Everyone's happy and we're set for another cup run.

Again, maybe I'm surprised and Backes goes for money, but if he does we should let him go. Steen is a bigger player at this point and we then don't have to worry about keeping him the next year. If Backes stays, we gamble losing Steen, but I think if Backes takes a discount, so will Steener.

2016-2017

Steen Stastny Tarasenko (5.8M + 7M + 7.5M) = 20.3M
Schwartz Lehtera Jaskin (4.5M + 4.7M + 2M) = 11.2M
Fabbri Backes Brouwer/Rattie (.894M + 5M + 3.5M/1.2M) = 9.394M/7.094M
Upshall Barbashev Reaves (1M + .772M + 1.125M) = 2.897M

Forwards Total Approx: 43M

Bouwmeester Pietrangelo (5.4M + 6.5M) = 11.9M
Edmundson Shattenkirk (1.5M + 6.5M) = 8M REMEMBER, Shatty actually costs only 4.25M this season)
Lindbohm Parayko (.636M + .858M) = 1.494M

Defense Total Approx: 21M

Elliott (2.5M)
Allen (2.35)

Goalie Total Approx: 4.85M

Schmaltz, Dunn, Rattie, Binnington/Copley/Husso (Only for LTIR)

TOTAL CAP: 68.85M / 71.2M


We still need some press box players, but we can probably find those at bargain prices. The Cap might even go up. I think we drop Brouwer if things look too sticky and Backes is willing to go for the discount. Berglund absolutely MUST be moved if Backes signs - peanuts if necessary. AGAIN, Shattenkirk's extension does not take place until the following year.

I only advocate that we loo to trade Shatty if 1) we get blown out of the water for a 1C or a top winger AND a blue chip 1C Prospect, or 2) We can't get a reasonable (> $7M) extension worked out over the summer at the latest. In the latter case, we need to deal Shatty for the minimum of a blue chip 1C prospect and a young scoring winger.

Is my math right? It's late and I didn't use a calculator because reasons. I'll amend as necessary.

This looks like a VERY solid lineup for the following year, and if we decide to make some trades for a young, bonafide 1C (RNH, Johansen, Couture) or a high scoring winger for the 2nd/1st line (Eberle, Okposo, Tatar) with obvious salary and pieces going the other way (Shattenkirk, Steen, Stastny, Rattie, Bouwmeester, Schmaltz, '17 1st, Berglund, etc.) then we have an absolutely lethal CHI/TBL-esque team.

Oh, and don't forget Sobotka could be our 4th line C/LW that could Pk and move up as needed, or simply take Backes spot if we also trade Bergie.

 

[Ranksu]

Oh, and don't forget Sobotka could be our 4th line C/LW that could Pk and move up as needed, or simply take Backes spot if we also trade Bergie.

Great post,

I'll grab this end of your quote. Sobotka could come back, still russian fellows could confirm this, 'cus I do remember someone told Sobotka would most likely come back on Blue next summer?

I don't believe Schwartz could extend his contract that price, I'm thinking more of Steen ~5.5mill.$ money and Backes should easily snack ~5.750mill.$,

Knowing Gunnar and most likely Ott gone, but Berglund will be problem his NTC. Who will take 3.7mill.$ 3rd liner? 3-4 cheap dmens will be big relief when building up team 2016-17.

Btw we could see next season Husso's big debut NA..

That PK,FO and 110% attitude what Sobotka would bring to this team, Oh my... and dream come true reunite Sobotka - Schwartz wheelhouse PK duo.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Great post,

I'll grab this end of your quote. Sobotka could come back, still russian fellows could confirm this, 'cus I do remember someone told Sobotka would most likely come back on Blue next summer?

I don't believe Schwartz could extend his contract that price, I'm thinking more of Steen ~5.5mill.$ money and Backes should easily snack ~5.750mill.$,

Knowing Gunnar and most likely Ott gone, but Berglund will be problem his NTC. Who will take 3.7mill.$ 3rd liner? 3-4 cheap dmens will be big relief when building up team 2016-17.

Btw we could see next season Husso's big debut NA..

That PK,FO and 110% attitude what Sobotka would bring to this team, Oh my... and dream come true reunite Sobotka - Schwartz wheelhouse PK duo.

I really, really, really like Sobotka. He was the first Blues jersey I ever got (three years ago). I would love him back if he's willing to play 4th/3rd line minutes, PK, and cover Lehtera when he's gassed.

Even if Schwartz wants a longer term deal at 5.5M and Backes is 6M<, I still think we have the cap room. Shatty's extension happens next year, so that gives us the needed cash to fit everyone under the cap for '16-'17 - maybe we don't resign Brouwer. Steen is the real casualty in this scenario, which is why we should push for a bridge deal 4.5AAV/2 years for Schwartz. I could definitely see Schwartz wanting 5.5AAV/6 though. Hopefully Steen follows his captain and takes a hometown discount (because in this scenario Backes does).

Bergie has to go in any scenario where we keep Backes, Shatty, and Schwartz - he just doesn't fit this team anymore need or cap-wise. He's not as unmovable as Bickle, and he could definitely a 2nd/3rd line tweener/deadline acquisition for many teams. If we needed to, we could retain a little and still come out on top because we wouldn't need to retain that much and his contract would end shortly.

 

[Robb_K]

I really, really, really like Sobotka. He was the first Blues jersey I ever got (three years ago). I would love him back if he's willing to play 4th/3rd line minutes, PK, and cover Lehtera when he's gassed.

Even if Schwartz wants a longer term deal at 5.5M and Backes is 6M<, I still think we have the cap room. Shatty's extension happens next year, so that gives us the needed cash to fit everyone under the cap for '16-'17 - maybe we don't resign Brouwer. Steen is the real casualty in this scenario, which is why we should push for a bridge deal 4.5AAV/2 years for Schwartz. I could definitely see Schwartz wanting 5.5AAV/6 though. Hopefully Steen follows his captain and takes a hometown discount (because in this scenario Backes does).

Bergie has to go in any scenario where we keep Backes, Shatty, and Schwartz - he just doesn't fit this team anymore need or cap-wise. He's not as unmovable as Bickle, and he could definitely a 2nd/3rd line tweener/deadline acquisition for many teams. If we needed to, we could retain a little and still come out on top because we wouldn't need to retain that much and his contract would end shortly.

I like this scenario. But, does it require that Boumeester is traded?

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Berglund only has a limited NTC. He may not command much return, but he won't be that hard to move.

 

[Ranksu]

Berglund only has a limited NTC. He may not command much return, but he won't be that hard to move.

Patrik Berglund (limited; can list up to 7 teams he will not accept trade to)


* * *

I like this scenario. But, does it require that Boumeester is traded?

looks like no. I sum up

Steen (5.800) - Lehterä (4,700) - Tarasenko (7,500) 
Schwartz ([B]5,500[/B]) - Stastny (7,000) - Jaskin ([B]2,250[/B])	   
Berglund (3,700) - Backes ([B]5,500[/B]) - Fabbri (0,894)			
      xxx           - Sobotka (2,725) - Reaves (1,125)

Rattie ([B]1,125[/B])

Total:([B]47.819[/B])

Lindbohm (0,636) - Pietro (6,500)			
Edmundson ([B]1,250[/B]) - Shattery (4,250)
Jbo (5,400) - Parayko (0,925)

Bortuzzo (1,050)

Total:(19.886) 

Allen (2,350)						
Elliott (2,500)


Total salary: ([B]72.555.mill.$[/B])

 

[LGB51]

How much do you guys think Gooch's next contract will be for? I assume it will be a bridge deal, but what kind of number do you think we're looking at, barring he keeps improving with no serious injury.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Why is that, I kind of understand Sobotka would be coming next season back on Blues. Maybe our russian friends know something?

He might, but why would we want him back on this team? He's not better than anyone on our third line (not by a longshot), and he went all "I'm taking my toys and leaving" on us when we suggested he play on the 4th line. He's not even better than Gomez or Uphshall, who cost a fraction of what Sobotka does, and do we really want to pay Sobie $2mil to sit in the press box for 50 games? We just don't have room for him. So unless he wants to come play 4th line, or we trade his rights, why would he ever come back? We're a better team than we were a few years ago when he left. There's no space for him anymore, and he probably realizes that. Good riddance

 

[2 Minute Minor]

The notion that Sobotka will not accept a 4th line role has been overblown. At the salary of his contract, the Blues can afford him on the 4th line as flexible depth. During the season, he'd get top 9 minutes plenty of times (as he's shown in the past he can handle it).

I think he may have a harder transition back to the NHL than many think. It won't be a seamless plugging right back in. In fact, I won't be surprised if he fails to regain his prior level of play.

But if he wants to come back to the NHL, that already assumes he is willing to play where the coach puts him. If he's not willing to come to camp and earn a spot, he's not really willing to come back to the NHL anyway.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

He might, but why would we want him back on this team? He's not better than anyone on our third line (not by a longshot), and he went all "I'm taking my toys and leaving" on us when we suggested he play on the 4th line. He's not even better than Gomez or Uphshall, who cost a fraction of what Sobotka does, and do we really want to pay Sobie $2mil to sit in the press box for 50 games? We just don't have room for him. So unless he wants to come play 4th line, or we trade his rights, why would he ever come back? We're a better team than we were a few years ago when he left. There's no space for him anymore, and he probably realizes that. Good riddance

I would argue that he's definitely better than Gomez and Upshall, and I believe his negotiated year was what, $1M? He's definitely worthy of being our 4th line center, and if Backes and Berglund are one, he'd be great 3C.

 

[Oberyn]

Sobotka is easily better than Upshall and Gomez.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Sobotka is more useful than Gomez and Upshall (but not nearly as cheap). His negotiated year was 2.5M iirc. Its not trivial, but its in the ballpark of what Ott makes (or slightly less) for a 4th line utility role. If Sobotka came back I'd want to part with Ott. (But I think Ott has been very good in his role this season so far. No complaints.)

At this point, I would want Armstrong to continue with his prior position: If Sobotka wants to come back and fulfill that contract, great. The team will welcome him. But there is no discussion about trading him or some magic way that he becomes UFA without fulfilling that year.