At this point if I’m Duchene , I have to consider leaving camp to force their hand . Clearly he wants out , and other teams are being more than fair in their offers , Sakic is just incompetent , or doesn’t get the fact that you don’t want to keep a player on your team that has checked out . Usually I side with the team or management , because players have agreed to their contracts , and should honor them , and I think that’s what Duchene is trying to do , but the team is a bungling mess , and he’s been more than patient .
Also , if we trade for Duchene, no doubt he’s the #1 center . Wennberg will be #2,
And Dubi at then#3, and we absolutely need this , as we are weak , down the middle .Wennberg is a great passer, and put up a lot of points last year , but he is not a very good outlet , and transition passer at this point . If your playing on a line with Panarin , and Atkinson, you need this skill set . Also , Duchene is a much better skater, Wins nearly 2/3 of his face offs . Wennberg is less than 50% , actually closer to 47%. And until Wennberg starts shooting the puck at a consistent basis , he will be a liability to his line mates . It was easy to see last year , why our power play fell off a cliff . Teams started sagging off Wennberg , and playing the cross pass , because they know he won’t shoot the puck .Dont get me wrong , he’s a great young player , but he has some real deficiencies that he must improve to be a #1 center .
At even strength Duchene slides Wennberg down. Wennberg hasn't been a good 5v5 scorer yet, while Duchene has had years on end of top 10 center play. (Sliding Wennberg down in the abstract, of course, our lines will not be so easily ranked).
Duchene on last place Colorado who checked out halfway through the season is definitely worse than Wennberg pushing for 1st place against the Caps and Pitt.
Now you put Duchene on a team competing for first place it's going to create competition for that spot. I don't think you really could say one is better than the other at this point. We don't know what Wennbergs ceiling is, or if he'll even hit 50 next season.
But I have little doubt given Wennbergs minutes last season Duchene matches Wennbergs output last season.
I see your thoughts, but we will need to agree to disagree on Duchene's value to CBJ. He is a bit more productive than Wennberg in terms of his own goal scoring, but his assists only once in his career exceeded (by 1) Wennberg's assist total of 46 last season. How is it that Duchene is so much better at transition passing? I don't see it with the eyeball test or the statistics.
And while I know many like advanced stats metric like CORSI/Fenwick and others, and that +/- may be an indicator more about team play than individual play, +/- is still a metric for evaluating 5-on-5 play. Even in Duchene's 67 point year in 10-11, he was a -8. In 15-16, before the train wreck, he scored the exact same number of points as Wennberg did in 16-17, and was a -8. Wennberg's negative +/- for his first 2 seasons were on train wreck seasons for the CBJ. FWIW, Wennbergs CF% EV was 51.2 last season, 49.3 for 15-16; Duchene's was 49.1 for 16-17 and 45.4 for 15-16, only above 50% in 11-12 season.
Maybe my biggest hangup is that Duchene quit on the Avs and his teammates last year - at least I haven't read any claim to the contrary. After the fact, most excuse it because the Avs were so bad. But part of the reason the Avs were bad is because Duchene was bad.
On the flip-side, I didn't see Wennberg quit in the 14-15 or 15-16 seasons when the Jackets were awful and the seasons were over for all intents and purposes by Thanksgiving. Instead Wennberg (and others) battled...and got better for the long run as a result. You can argue that he was still playing for a spot - but he PLAYED nonetheless!
I would rather continue to push forward with Wennberg as our #1 when he is continuing to progress and just signed a 6 year deal at great AAV, and preserve assets for a better deal down the road than bring in Duchene. I just don't see Duchene as an improvement over Wennberg for more than half of a season as Wennberg continues to progress. Duchene to me has already peaked, is not a good fit for the CBJ room, is 4 years older than Wennberg, and who has only 2 years left and will be a UFA. Unless Duchenne would clearly be our #1C and a full cut above Wennberg (which I don't see), I would not spend any significant assets for him.
Duchene's career stats from Colorado Avalanche site:
Yr GP G A TP +/- FO%
09-10 81 24 31 55 1 44.03
10-11 80 27 40 67 -8 50.4
11-12 58 14 14 28 -11 51.15
12-13 47 17 26 43 -12 54.65
13-14 71 23 47 70 8 50.28
14-15 82 21 34 55 3 52.18
15-16 76 30 29 59 -8 57.92
16-17 77 18 23 41 -34 62.57
Career 572 174 244 418 -61 52.7
Wennberg's stats:
14-15 68 4 16 20 -19 42.73
15-16 69 8 32 40 -1 43.38
16-17 80 13 46 59 9 47.39
Career 217 25 94 119 -11 45.0
Could Duchenne get back to his 13-14 season - possibly.
Could Wennberg exceed Duchene's 13-14 season - possibly, 10 more goals and he's essentially there. I think he gets more than enough assists to get to 70 this year.
Maybe I'm just fatigued with the Duchene talk that I just want it over.
Maybe I am wrong in thinking that Dubi is still solid in the #2C spot for 2 more years once healthy.
Maybe Dubois is not going to be a solid #2 or even #3C in the next few years.
But from the get-go, I'd rather bank on Wennberg as my #1 unless/until something better than Duchene comes along. And I know I am in the minority...
