The decline of the QMJHL

[Franck]

Actually, I'd be interested to hear your experiences as a Swedish hockey fan. There was a period there where Sweden didn't seem to be producing any skilled players anymore. The early 90's core of Sundin, Forsberg, Lidstrom, Naslund, etc were still around, but there really wasn't anything in the way of new blood outside of the Sedin's (who took a long time to develop). But now it seems like Sweden is producing star-calibre talent again pretty regularly.

Without having too much insight on the subject, I believe the expert opinion on the "talent drought" was that the youth teams got too caught up teaching systems and tactics instead of hockey skills.

 

[jkrx]

Actually, I'd be interested to hear your experiences as a Swedish hockey fan. There was a period there where Sweden didn't seem to be producing any skilled players anymore. The early 90's core of Sundin, Forsberg, Lidstrom, Naslund, etc were still around, but there really wasn't anything in the way of new blood outside of the Sedin's (who took a long time to develop). But now it seems like Sweden is producing star-calibre talent again pretty regularly.

Wasn't this the case with most nations in late 90s? Might be true that Sweden lagged behind a bit more than everyone else but I don't think it had to do with any special situation in Sweden. Maybe it had to do with NHL teams using them as pluggers? Like in the case of Lindbom, Berglund, Nordström etc. They went from being stars to being offensively restricted. Ofcourse some of them werent good enough to play top6 minutes anyway.

 

[Bohemian93]

Because of the restrictions, Quebec-born players looking to leave the “Q” are seeing an increase in the recommendations made by their family advisors to enter US hockey programs offered by high schools and college prep schools as a viable alternative to the “Q”. It should be noted that the same scenario is developing in the OHL and WHL though with far less impact due to their ability to each produce on average, twice the number of draft picks compared the QMJHL. It jumps to three to four times the amount if you focus on just Quebec-born players within the “Q”.
These days, Quebec-born players can actually increase their chances of being drafted out of the US, a surprising revelation that will be discussed in my next article. The costs are prohibitive to all but more affluent families unless they manage to have a significant portion of their education covered by scholarships. .

Michael Matheson is a prime example of this.He's a Quebec born player who was practically the definite first overall pick heading into the 2010 QMJHL amateur draft. Matheson decided to drop out of the draft and take either the USHL/US college route like fellow quebecer Louis Leblanc.

Sadly this is part of an increase in Quebec born players leaving for the states(Ex:Alex,Danny and Michael Biega) which probably is a good reflection of the bad development for young hockey players Quebec has had in recent years.

Here's an arcticle on the Michael Matheson situation if anyones interested
http://www.westislandgazette.com/hockeyandpointeclaire/15261

 

[TonyTinglebone]

People (that have better insight than me into the Q) I've talked to seems to think that the league has been destabalized by expansion.

Some of them also mentioned that the decline of goaltenders were because of Roy, or rather the lack of Roy. When Roy was in his prime lots of Q goalies wanted to be like him which inflated the goalie numbers in the Q which later declined.

But they don't really think it (the league) has declined either.

Just wondering what you mean by the league being destabilized by expansion?

Some of the best run programs in the Q are a result of expansion, teams like Halifax, Lewiston, Moncton and Saint John seem to be producing quality talent since they have entered the league.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I think most Top Prospects from Quebec will start going to the NCAA or the USHL.

When a top players has to choose between Baie-Comeau, Bathurst, Rouyn-Noranda or a chance to play at Michigan or Harvard, ect. it doesn't seem to be enticing the Top Prospects to play major junior.

I think the rules for NCAA/CHL has some part in this but in general top prospects wants exposure.

Angelo Esposito is a good example of this. During his draft year in the Q, he declared his intentions of playing in the United States so his draft ranking would drop to the bigger teams (most notably the Quebec Remparts) where he could play with Patrick Roy and a very good team who eventually won the Memorial Cup in 2006.

The league has since changed some rules, forcing players to declare their intentions before the draft. However, I think the Esposito situation shows the gerenal attitude of how top Quebec born prospects view the QMJHL as the best place for their development and their exposure as they work towards making it in the big leagues.

 

[jkrx]

Just wondering what you mean by the league being destabilized by expansion?

Some of the best run programs in the Q are a result of expansion, teams like Halifax, Lewiston, Moncton and Saint John seem to be producing quality talent since they have entered the league.

I'll ask them and maybe get a better explination.

 

[westisbest*]

The Q has longgg been the 3rd best league. This is no surprise and nothing new.

 

[arrbez]

I think most Top Prospects from Quebec will start going to the NCAA or the USHL.

When a top players has to choose between Baie-Comeau, Bathurst, Rouyn-Noranda or a chance to play at Michigan or Harvard, ect. it doesn't seem to be enticing the Top Prospects to play major junior.

Sure, but that's not a problem unique to the QMJHL. Places like Owen Sound or Prince Albert don't exactly stack up either if you're looking for the ivy league experience. In fact, I could almost see it as an advantage in terms of retaining French Canadian players who may face a bit of a language barrier going to the states, while a kid from Ontario or Alberta wouldn't.

If more QMJHL-eligible players are doing that than from the other leagues (I have no idea, anyone have a list?), maybe guys don't see the Q as the best route for their hockey careers anymore?

 

[arrbez]

The Q has longgg been the 3rd best league. This is no surprise and nothing new.

Perhaps, but the Q was always producing Quebecois superstars, which it hasn't really done at all in the last decade. The 80's gave the league Lemieux, Savard, Bourque, Roy, Robitaille, Turgeon, Damphousse, Desjardins, etc. And every generation before that seems to have produced a similar level of talent. But since then, there hasn't been much outside of goaltending.

 

[GreatCanadian]

This whole thing makes no sense to me, really. Logic would have it going the other way.

Because since the Q expanded east towards the Maritimes in the mid-to-late-90s, it has also expanded the talent pool (particularly anglophone maritimers who previously had a language barrier by trying to play in the Q, but could now play for Halifax, Moncton, SJ, PEI, Lewiston etc..) But I see this discussion has yo-yo'ed back and forth between the actual QMJHL, and Quebec-born players. There is more and more of a difference these days. A bigger and bigger slice of the QMJHL is actually Maritimers/Atlantic Canadians. Are you taking that into consideration?

 

[arrbez]

This whole thing makes no sense to me, really. Logic would have it going the other way.

Because since the Q expanded east towards the Maritimes in the mid-to-late-90s, it has also expanded the talent pool (particularly anglophone maritimers who previously had a language barrier by trying to play in the Q, but could now play for Halifax, Moncton, SJ, PEI, Lewiston etc..) But I see this discussion has yo-yo'ed back and forth between the actual QMJHL, and Quebec-born players. There is more and more of a difference these days. A bigger and bigger slice of the QMJHL is actually Maritimers/Atlantic Canadians. Are you taking that into consideration?

I guess it's a discussion about both. It seems like the maritime provinces have actually taken some big steps forwards in terms of prospects, and the expansion of major junior to the east probably has a lot to do with that. At the same time, Quebec has declined, and as a result the league itself seems further behind the OHL and WHL than I can recall.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Rinks

Historic problem. Presently Quebec has a larger population than the state of Minnesota app 7.9 million vs 5.2 million but Minnesota has more hockey rinks that are open longer and are more modern, app a 3:2 ratio.

The Q rinks in Quebec, other than the Colisee in Quebec city barely make the minimum capacity numbers.

Quebec has always lagged in this regard and there is little hope for change.

 

[arrbez]

Do you have numbers on the amount of rinks by province/state?

 

[New User Name]

I think over the next few years you will see Canada on a whole get kicks to the groin when it comes to hockey

I definitely agree.

And it won't be the Russians or Europeans that will take over, it'll be the Americans.

Today 52% of the league are Canadian, Americans make up 20%

No one from 1980 would have thought that possible in 30 years.

There are as many kids playing the game in the states as in Canada. That number will only grow till more Americans are playing the game.

The USHL will be on par with major junior in Canada within 5 years.

And the number of teams in the USHL will increase.

It sure helps USA hockey that Bettman and the NHL are giving them 8 million a year starting last year.

It's a numbers game and with the US having 9X Canada's population it's just a matter of time when the majority of players and the better players are American.

Canadians who don't believe this are in denial.

I'd say by the year 2050 75% of the players will be American.

 

[GreatCanadian]

Do you have numbers on the amount of rinks by province/state?

According to www.arenamaps.com .....

Things I noticed:
- There are more Arenas in Canada (pop: < California), then in all 50 American states.
- How few arenas Quebec actually has compared to Ontario.
- How many arenas Minnesota has compared to just about every other state!
- Nashville (Tenessee) has NHL hockey despite only having 10 arenas in the whole state, and Georgia has one too, despite only 11 arenas state-wide.
- Northwest Territories (pop: 43,000) has more arenas than nine U.S. States.
- Prince Edward Island (pop: 141,000) has more arenas than 29 U.S. States, including three states with NHL hockey).

Province/Territory
---
1018- Ontario
445 - Alberta
376 - Quebec
238 - Saskatchewan
237 - Manitoba
192 - British Columbia
89 - New Brunswick
80 - Nova Scotia
34 - Newfoundland and Labrador
27 - Prince Edward Island
8 - Northwest Territories
7 - Yukon
2 - Nunavut
----------------------------
2753- TOTAL (12,389 people/Arena)


State
---
528 - Minnesota
189 - New York
159 - Michigan
151 - Massachusetts
128 - Wisconsin
99 - Pennsylvania
90 - California
89 - Illinois
67 - North Dakota
57 - Ohio
56 - New Jersey
53 - Texas
49 - Colorado
49 - Connecticut
43 - Maine
39 - Missouri
36 - New Hampshire
34 - Florida
32 - Washington
30 - Vermont
29 - Maryland
27 - Virginia
25 - Alaska
24 - North Carolina
23 - Indiana
20 - Arizona
20 - South Dakota
17 - Iowa
17 - Rhode Island
16 - Utah
15 - Montana
12 - Oregon
11 - Georgia
11 - Wyoming
10 - Tennessee
9 - Idaho
9 - Louisiana
9 - Nebraska
9 - Nevada
9 - South Carolina
8 - Oklahoma
8 - West Virginia
7 - Kansas
7 - Kentucky
7 - New Mexico
6 - Alabama
5 - Delaware
4 - Arkansas
4 - District of Columbia
4 - Mississippi
1 - Hawaii
----------------------------
2361- TOTAL (131,636 people/Arena)

 

[Canadiens1958]

Adjustments

According to www.arenamaps.com .....

Things I noticed:
- There are more Arenas in Canada (pop: < California), then in all 50 American states.
- How few arenas Quebec actually has compared to Ontario.
- How many arenas Minnesota has compared to just about every other state!
- Nashville has NHL hockey despite only having 10 arenas in the whole state, and Georgia has one too, despite only 11 arenas state-wide.
- Northwest Territories (pop: 43,000) has more arenas than nine U.S. States.
- Prince Edward Island (pop: 141,000) has more arenas than 29 U.S. States, including three states with NHL hockey).

Province/Territory
---
1018- Ontario
445 - Alberta
376 - Quebec
238 - Saskatchewan
237 - Manitoba
192 - British Columbia
89 - New Brunswick
80 - Nova Scotia
34 - Newfoundland and Labrador
27 - Prince Edward Island
8 - Northwest Territories
7 - Yukon
2 - Nunavut
----------------------------
2753- TOTAL (12,389 people/Arena)


State
---
528 - Minnesota
189 - New York
159 - Michigan
151 - Massachusetts
128 - Wisconsin
99 - Pennsylvania
90 - California
89 - Illinois
67 - North Dakota
57 - Ohio
56 - New Jersey
53 - Texas
49 - Colorado
49 - Connecticut
43 - Maine
39 - Missouri
36 - New Hampshire
34 - Florida
32 - Washington
30 - Vermont
29 - Maryland
27 - Virginia
25 - Alaska
24 - North Carolina
23 - Indiana
20 - Arizona
20 - South Dakota
17 - Iowa
17 - Rhode Island
16 - Utah
15 - Montana
12 - Oregon
11 - Georgia
11 - Wyoming
10 - Tennessee
9 - Idaho
9 - Louisiana
9 - Nebraska
9 - Nevada
9 - South Carolina
8 - Oklahoma
8 - West Virginia
7 - Kansas
7 - Kentucky
7 - New Mexico
6 - Alabama
5 - Delaware
4 - Arkansas
4 - District of Columbia
4 - Mississippi
1 - Hawaii
----------------------------
2361- TOTAL (131,636 people/Arena)

The data is fairly accurate but adjustments have to be made for the number of pads or ice surfaces per arena, the number of months that they are open, private or municipal rinks. In Quebec the vast majority of the arenas feature one rink, are municipally owned which means they tend to close mid April and re-open Aug 15 - Sept. 15.

Presently the non-federated AAA hockey during the off season is a major impetus in development. Quebec is only starting to enter this sphere.

 

[GreatCanadian]

Yeah certainly a fair percentage of these facilities have 2-3-4+ ice surfaces, but without doing a month of research, these numbers still showed where the hockey hotbeds are... somewhat. Obviously one has to factor in population as well. Rhode Island should not have as many rinks as California