The Case For Buying Out Andrei Sekera

[48g90a138pts]

Andrei Sekera is our highest paid defenseman at $5.5 million AAV. He is signed for 3 more years beyond this one. He is coming off of a massive injury and looks like it will be awhile before he's back to 100% if he ever gets there.

With another impending cap crunch and the bulk of our defensive depth on the left side with Nurse looking for a substantial raise it maybe worth looking at buying out Andrei if we couldn't deal him and retain a little for the remainder of his contract.

Ideally we could move him for futures and retain $1.5 million on the remainder of his 3 years.

If that is not a possibility because he will not waive his NMC or no one wants him then we may need to bite the bullet to improve the team without moving RNH or Klefbom.

Here is what a buyout of Sekera this offseason would look like:

'18-19 Actual Salary $5.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Savings $3,888,889
'19-20 Actual Salary $4.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $2,611,111 Savings $2,888,889
'20-21 Actual Salary $4.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $2,611,111 Savings $2,888,889
'21-22 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111
'22-23 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111
'23-24 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111

If we could buy out Sekera or preferably trade him with some retention we could make a play for an upgrade on D whether it be Mike Green or someone via trade. Pouliot's buyout comes off the books in '21-22 so in theory Sekera's would be the only buyout on our books at that point.

This is a whole year premature. At this time next year we can revisit this topic if his play hasn't improved. Till then no way am I approving dead cap space. Pouliot buy out is a massive blunder.

 

[Aerchon]

I stopped following Marincin the moment he left the Oil. Heard bits and pieces here and there. At one point he was doing very well and then collapsed.

I actually don't want to trade Klefbom. I agree it's short sighted. My point was that I'd rather trade Klefbom than buyout Sekera. I'd rather trade Klefbom than Nuge as well. But only reason to trade anyone is if it's absolutely nessasary due to cap restraints.

If we somehow fluke out and win Dahlin I fully expect Klefbom to be traded before next season. Most likely for a very bad return.

 

[rboomercat90]

Haha no, a smart GM would augment and bring in pieces to help on D. With all due respect to the Islanders as well, McDavid is far better than Tavares, while Drai and Hall are better than Barzal and Bailey.

We would be closer to what the Penguins are in a weaker conference. Old farts like Kesler eventually would break trying to keep up.

Toronto will be playing for a Cup sooner than the Oilers under this management, book it.

You’re getting close to setting a record for threads derailed with all your Chiarelli crap. It sure would be nice to go into a thread having a forward discussion on how the team can improve without getting the same damn history lesson from you on something everybody already knows.

 

[Aceboogie]

Id be fine keeping the D core as is. If no buyout for Sekera meant no buyout for Russell, id honestly do that. Sekera will bounce back with a full offseason. The D core is not as bad it seems. Id add another top 4 D for insurance but id roll with this D core next year myself

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

There is no case for buying out Sekera since it doesn't make any sense given he was good in his first season with the Oilers at least after they kept him away from Nurse and gave him Fayne and very good in year 2.

Zero reason to sour on a guy based on his struggles 23 games into his rehab during a lost season on a team going nowhere.

Buying him out now would be about as wise as an organization filled with lhd prospects trading a 1st and 2nd round pick for a left handed defense prospect that sucked in the AHL the year before.

 

[Stoneman89]

Andrei Sekera is our highest paid defenseman at $5.5 million AAV. He is signed for 3 more years beyond this one. He is coming off of a massive injury and looks like it will be awhile before he's back to 100% if he ever gets there.

With another impending cap crunch and the bulk of our defensive depth on the left side with Nurse looking for a substantial raise it maybe worth looking at buying out Andrei if we couldn't deal him and retain a little for the remainder of his contract.

Ideally we could move him for futures and retain $1.5 million on the remainder of his 3 years.

If that is not a possibility because he will not waive his NMC or no one wants him then we may need to bite the bullet to improve the team without moving RNH or Klefbom.

Here is what a buyout of Sekera this offseason would look like:

'18-19 Actual Salary $5.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Savings $3,888,889
'19-20 Actual Salary $4.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $2,611,111 Savings $2,888,889
'20-21 Actual Salary $4.5 million AAV $5.5 million Buyout Cap Hit $2,611,111 Savings $2,888,889
'21-22 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111
'22-23 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111
'23-24 Actual Salary $0 AAV $0 Buyout Cap Hit $1,611,111 Dead Cap $1,611,111

If we could buy out Sekera or preferably trade him with some retention we could make a play for an upgrade on D whether it be Mike Green or someone via trade. Pouliot's buyout comes off the books in '21-22 so in theory Sekera's would be the only buyout on our books at that point.

Or we could do the logical thing and see what he looks like in the fall, and go from there. Knee injuries take a toll, and I never expected him to come back and play immediately like he did before. He's going to need more time to rehab and get his mobility back.

 

[Stoneman89]

Or we could do the logical thing and see what he looks like in the fall, and go from there. Knee injuries take a toll, and I never expected him to come back and play immediately like he did before. He's going to need more time to rehab and get his mobility back.

We've already stupidly bought out one player already (Pouliot) that we could have had some use of this season, and then tried to move him at the deadline. Now we're stuck with his payout hit for the next few years.No need to make the same mistake twice.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Looking at some real bad anchor contracts around the league I can see at the next CBA that their will be buyout provision again of bad contracts that wont affect the cap ,

That would likely be the Lucic contract.

A buyout makes the most sense right now as the cap liability would be timed to begin right when Seattle is expected to join the league. That hit would be more than offset by a $5M+ gain like we saw with Vegas this year.

I'm honestly more comfortable with that plan than trading Klefbom and hoping Sekera becomes a #3 again, which at 32/33 is going to be extremely difficult.

Good call about the Seattle expansion adding more cap help in time. I don't like the idea of having dead cap but I am looking at ways to improve the club without moving out RNH or our 1st this year.

Or we could do the logical thing and see what he looks like in the fall, and go from there. Knee injuries take a toll, and I never expected him to come back and play immediately like he did before. He's going to need more time to rehab and get his mobility back.

By the time the Fall comes we will basically have to live with him until at least the offseason even if he still plays poorly. It also doesn't allow us to improve the team prior to the next season unless we deal RNH or Klefbom.

We've already stupidly bought out one player already (Pouliot) that we could have had some use of this season, and then tried to move him at the deadline. Now we're stuck with his payout hit for the next few years.No need to make the same mistake twice.

His contract wasn't ending this season so I doubt that he would've moved at the deadline at his cap hit.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You’re getting close to setting a record for threads derailed with all your Chiarelli crap. It sure would be nice to go into a thread having a forward discussion on how the team can improve without getting the same damn history lesson from you on something everybody already knows.

I think he holds the record already, don’t even have to see who you quoted to know who you’re talking about

 

[Soundwave]

You’re getting close to setting a record for threads derailed with all your Chiarelli crap. It sure would be nice to go into a thread having a forward discussion on how the team can improve without getting the same damn history lesson from you on something everybody already knows.

There is a clear way for the team to improve and it's relatively simple.

 

[RandomGuy79]

There is a clear way for the team to improve and it's relatively simple.

So derailing every thread to turn it into a fire chia thread will accomplish what exactly?

 

[McBaevid]

Right so what will happen next year? I don’t know and neither do you. There’s more outlandish statiscal anomalies this year than last that’s for sure.

So of the past 11 years, the Oilers have made the playoffs once and you're saying last year isn't the statistical anomalie but this year is? Last year looks like a fluke if anything

 

[LTIR]

So of the past 11 years, the Oilers have made the playoffs once and you're saying last year isn't the statistical anomalie but this year is? Last year looks like a fluke if anything

How many 100 pt players in the last 11 yrs? Oilers were trending up since McDavid but this year all of Talbot, Klefbom, Sekera, Larsson, Benning and Lucic decided to take the year off of one reason or another.

We should buy out McLellan if anyone.

Its part of his job to get his team up for games from the puck drop

 

[Little Fury]

The reference to Lucic was made because of the part I bolded in the quoted post. Nothing to do with injuries.

He hasn't been crap. He's been crap the past 25 games. He put up fairly decent numbers last year. I will take 50 points and 200 plus hits for 6 million bucks a year. Prior to this absolutely horrendous stretch, he was on pace to almost break his career high in points.

That contract is not as bad as a lot of people make it out to be

Last year his numbers were zoomed by career-best PP production. He was brutal at 5 on 5, just as has been for most of this season outside a short stretch of 11 or 12 games where he shot the lights out.

It's a terrible contract that's only going to get worse from here.

 

[McBigYak]

Last year his numbers were zoomed by career-best PP production. He was brutal at 5 on 5, just as has been for most of this season outside a short stretch of 11 or 12 games where he shot the lights out.

It's a terrible contract that's only going to get worse from here.

I don't get this. A goal is a goal. A point is a point. He put 23 in last year. Are those somehow discounted because they are powerplay goals? Do powerplay goals count less towards a win? Maybe I am missing something? A person who pots goals on the powerplay still has value, I don't know why PP points are taken at a discounted rate.

He was good 5v5 to start the year and has ended up in a slump. It happens, and he's gonna break out of it. He was well worth the 6 million dollars last year, and was on his way to being worth it this year until he hit this slump. It's not as bad as people think.

I'm not praising the contract by any means. It's a bad contract. But the talk of buying out guys like Sekera and Lucic with the term they have left is WAY overblown. They are not nearly that bad.

 

[Little Fury]

I don't get this. A goal is a goal. A point is a point. He put 23 in last year. Are those somehow discounted because they are powerplay goals? Do powerplay goals count less towards a win? Maybe I am missing something? A person who pots goals on the powerplay still has value, I don't know why PP points are taken at a discounted rate.

85% of the game is played at 5 on 5, so someone who can produce consistently in that game state has more value than someone who needs the PP to make hay. Now, lucic used to be a very good ES producer and a middling PP guy, last year was an obvious exception. But we're talking about his value and performance going forward and now we have two straight seasons where his 5 on 5 production has sagged, which has all the makings of as troubling trend given his age and cap hit.

He was good 5v5 to start the year and has ended up in a slump. It happens, and he's gonna break out of it. He was well worth the 6 million dollars last year, and was on his way to being worth it this year until he hit this slump. It's not as bad as people think.

If you look beyond the counting numbers, all the signs of a player teetering on the edge of a cliff were there earlier this season. It's a huge issue if he continues to decline after just two years of an immoveable seven year deal.

I'm not praising the contract by any means. It's a bad contract. But the talk of buying out guys like Sekera and Lucic with the term they have left is WAY overblown. They are not nearly that bad.

Buying out is extreme and in Lucic's case impossible. But there's no denying those are two deals they are going to have to move on from sooner than later if they want to fill any of the glaring roster holes without losing more trades.

 

[Smartguy]

Sekera is not as bad as he has been since returning, people seem to forget he was probably our best d man for stretches of last year. Even if we wanted to offload him, which I’m doubting we do, I’m thinking adding a non first round pick to him would be an easy deal for a rebuilding team. But I would wait another year like others have said. Outside of Mcdavid and Drai no one has really performed really well this year... especially on D. Makes me shutter that Russell has probably been our best, most consistent D-man this year.

 

[BudBundy]

Reggie is likely to improve. Russell on the other hand, will stay Russell. Nice corner youve managed to paint us all into, Chia.

 

[McBigYak]

85% of the game is played at 5 on 5, so someone who can produce consistently in that game state has more value than someone who needs the PP to make hay. Now, lucic used to be a very good ES producer and a middling PP guy, last year was an obvious exception. But we're talking about his value and performance going forward and now we have two straight seasons where his 5 on 5 production has sagged, which has all the makings of as troubling trend given his age and cap hit.



If you look beyond the counting numbers, all the signs of a player teetering on the edge of a cliff were there earlier this season. It's a huge issue if he continues to decline after just two years of an immoveable seven year deal.



Buying out is extreme and in Lucic's case impossible. But there's no denying those are two deals they are going to have to move on from sooner than later if they want to fill any of the glaring roster holes without losing more trades.

I agree that most of the game is 5v5, but if a guy can put up stellar PP numbers like he did, he still has value. Look at our struggling PP right now. It shows the importance of players being able to produce on the PP. Now, Lucic's numbers are probably bloated from playing with the best player in the world, but it's production nonetheless.

I agree with moving on from Lucic's deal, it's a long contract. But Sekera, if he can get back to last years performance, is well worth the 5.5 million. I don't see us moving on from him until that contract is up. He is 23 games removed from being our best defenseman, I bet you we see him return to form next year, and he plays well his remaining time as an Oiler. As for Lucic, he needs a fresh start next year and I believe he will return to a 50+ point 200+ hit top 6 winger. As for how long, who knows. But we can't change what is already done, and that contract is not moveable. It's just something we are going to hope doesn't happen, regression wise.

 

[Canovin]

I was never a fan of Sekera's contract but I think Lucic's contract is the bigger problem. The Oilers have to deal with Lucic first

 

[Little Fury]

I agree that most of the game is 5v5, but if a guy can put up stellar PP numbers like he did, he still has value. Look at our struggling PP right now. It shows the importance of players being able to produce on the PP. Now, Lucic's numbers are probably bloated from playing with the best player in the world, but it's production nonetheless.

I'm not saying PP points aren't important, just that, given Lucic's career PP numbers and his performance this year, it sure looks like last year was a blip.

I agree with moving on from Lucic's deal, it's a long contract. But Sekera, if he can get back to last years performance, is well worth the 5.5 million. I don't see us moving on from him until that contract is up. He is 23 games removed from being our best defenseman, I bet you we see him return to form next year, and he plays well his remaining time as an Oiler. As for Lucic, he needs a fresh start next year and I believe he will return to a 50+ point 200+ hit top 6 winger. As for how long, who knows. But we can't change what is already done, and that contract is not moveable. It's just something we are going to hope doesn't happen, regression wise.

If Sekera can get back to 100% that would help us a lot. Lucic? I think the writing is on the wall for him as a top 6 player, have to hope he eventually waives for a fresh start somewhere else like Seattle.

 

[Fourier]

I was never a fan of Sekera's contract but I think Lucic's contract is the bigger problem. The Oilers have to deal with Lucic first

The issue here is that a buyout is a plausible option for Sekera if cap space is required but it is not for Lucic. And I say this even though I am not advocating for a buyout. Only recognizing that if for some reason the Oilers had to clear space they could do it with a buyout. But this should only happen if they have someone already in place whose presence would make the team better. For example, let's say that next year they had a chance to sign OEL as a UFA (this is just a hypothetical). The first option of course would be trying to move Sekera, but if he balked because of his NMC or because no one on his NT list wanted him, then a buyout would be available to clear roughly $3M in space in a year where things might be tight.

 

[Tyrolean]

Get rid of Lucic and you can keep all the good players. Where there's a will, there's a way.

 

[nturn06]

So let me sum it up:

Our best D-man for 2 season is out for a long stretch, and when he comes back he is rusty for 24 games, we should buy him out. On another hand, a winger is trending down for 6 years, each season he is consistently putting out worse and worse numbers, but PC should be fired for trading him.

Only in Edmonton.

 

[Lessy]

Not a Sekera fan but I think the buyout option is a bit premature. I would THINK the Oilers could get out of this contract if they had to by retaining some salary at worst. He is without question a negative value asset at this point due to his contract but deserves some slack coming back from his injury. We will see what next year brings as I doubt he'll be moved this summer BUT his actual salary drops in the last two years of his deal which makes him more movable combined with the fact he's an actual #4 NHL defender at this point. At worst you ask him to move his NMC and retain I'd think. Lucic and maybe Russell are the immovable anchors on this team.