The 'best player' vs 'most valuable to team' problem.

[Psych0dad]

GAR incorporated to contract value measures this but I'm assuming we don't have a tool to parse GAR or WAR for this season?

 

[daver]

So you didn’t answer me because you disagree with my statement of the actual words on the award and then you go and say you don’t know anything or care about defense which is literally half the game? Thanks for your time, have a good day.

So how many points is Hall's defensive game worth vs. Kucherov's?

 

[daver]

That’s why they have the Ted Lindsay Award.

Historically, if the same player doesn't win the Hart and the Lindsay, the Lindsay winner was #2 in Hart voting, at least for the vast majority of the time. It would be a shock if Hall got serious Hart consideration if voting was today.

 

[b in vancouver]

just wondering if the same people whom argue the 'most valuable to his team' aspect would prefer if Dale Hawerchuk, Peter Statsny and Ray Bourque won multiple Hart trophies as they were clearly the most valuable players to their teams - while Wayne Gretzky never got any because he played on a stacked team. Lafleur and Orr wouldn't have won the Hart.

(unless you're a Montreal goalie) - the Hart has gone to the best player in the league.

 

[Killswitch7187]

That’s why they have the Ted Lindsay Award.

They have the Ted Lindsay Award for the player vote.

Imagine if the NFL/NBA/MLB tried to determine their league MVP based on a great player's teammates and not their production. The NBA is guilty of player-fatigue, but otherwise those leagues have selected the player who best performed in that particular season. I don't know why the NHL has to have this exclusive mentality.

Other then having an agenda, I suppose.

 

[bobholly39]

So you didn’t answer me because you disagree with my statement of the actual words on the award and then you go and say you don’t know anything or care about defense which is literally half the game? Thanks for your time, have a good day.

I disagree with your interpretation of the words. It's not the same thing.

Taylor Hall is 14th in the scoring race. Here is a list of the last 15 forwards to win the Hart Trophy:

McDavid. 1st in scoring
Kane. 1st in scoring
Crosby. 1st in scoring
Ovechkin. 3 in scoring (only 4 points gap, but rocket winner by 3 goals)
Malkin. 1st in scoring.
Perry. 3rd in scoring. (only 6 points gap, but first in goals by 5 goal gap)
Sedin. 1st in scoring
Ovechkin. 2nd in scoring (3 point gap), 1st in goal (1o goals gap)
Ovechkin. 1st in scoring
Crosby. 1st in scoring
Thornton. 1st in scoring
St Louis. 1st in scoring
Forsberg. 1st in scoring
Sakic. 2nd in scoring (3 points gap), 2nd in goals scored, 2nd in Selke voting
Jagr 1st in scoring.

Okay. Your turn. Convince everyone why a forward (without selke caliber defense) is going to win the hart trophy while in 14th place in the scoring race, and 17th place in the goal scoring race.

 

[57special]

Please stop with the "on pace for"! Durability matters. Showing up for every game matters! The standings don't care if you are injured!

 

[Ncit3]

If MacKinnon can move into 2nd overall in scoring while keeping it within 5-6 points for the rest of the year, and the Avs find a way to sneak in, I feel he has a legit chance at the Hart. Still being solidly in the points race at #7 after missing 10 games just shows how much he carries our offense. Being only 5 points back of 2nd place in the scoring race while having 5-10 less games played than everyone ahead of him has to mean something as well.

 

[The Devil In I]

This is exactly how it should be. Unfortunately, too many people want to turn it into a philosophical debate about the "meaning of most valuable".

Too often, this "new age" definition punishes great players on good teams and rewards decent players on bad teams.

It also places way too much emphasis on "this 8th seed wouldn't even make the playoffs without Player X!", ignoring the fact that great players on good teams also affect their team's standings. Maybe Tampa finishes 3rd in their division instead of first without Kucherov? Maybe Pittsburgh finishes in a wildcard spot instead of 2nd without Crosby?

A player who is a big part of his team finishing 1st or 2nd instead of 5th or 6th is every bit as valuable as a player who helps his team finish 7th or 8th instead of 10th or 11th.

By "new age definition" you mean the literal definition of the award, as per NHL.com?

The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

I agree with the general consensus that it's the MVP trophy, it should be the literal most valuable (best) player. But that's not the definition of the award, and the "to his team" part allows for a legitimate case for Hall to be made. While it's true that every team would be worse without their best player, there's a pretty big gap between Tampa/Pitts losing Kucherov/Crosby and the Devils losing Hall. The Devils are coming off being the 4th worst team in the league and this year 3 out of their 4 leading scorers after Hall are rookies. Their #1 goalie hasn't played in over a month due to injury, and yet they're somehow still battling for a top 3 spot in the division (even within striking distance of #1). I think it's reasonable to think they'd be a bottom 5 team without Hall this year, and that's way worse than what Pitts would be without Crosby.

 

[george14]

Please stop with the "on pace for"! Durability matters. Showing up for every game matters! The standings don't care if you are injured!

Correct, but if the gap is small and games missed are a decent amount, it's clear who had the "better" season.

In b4 Ovechkin > Crosby because he has more points (in 150+ games played).

 

[McFlash97]

It sucks that McDavid has absolutely no way to influence his PP performance.

Care to give McDavid , a Hedman, Sergachev ,Stamkos to work with on the PP, instead of Letestu, Strome, and Lucic.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Why advanced stats will forever be second. Always has been, and always will be about the scoring leaders. Production is the gold standard in the NHL.

Which of course is the way it should be, to score or make a play in this league at that level of consistency is an incredible thing to do. For Mackinnon, Hall, or Gadreau to have any chance they'd need to make the playoffs. Sorry about your luck Connor.

 

[Bandit]

The Hart Trophy is synonymous with MVP. And MVP, is kind of ambiguous. You could interpret it as the best player i.e most valuable player in the league, or 'most valuable to his team'.

There is a distinction, it usually goes to the best player in the league.

Kucherov is probably the best player in the league in this year, but Tampa is so stacked with other elite players like Stamkos/Hedman/Vasilevsky. You could argue he shouldn't be punished for having good teammates, too. Malkin is basically in the same boat as Kucherov.

On the other hand, players like Taylor Hall, Nathan Mackinnon, Connor McDavid don't have nearly the help that guys like Kucherov, Crosby, Malkin have but are putting their teams on their back and carrying them. The Oilers are still a terrible team but imagine how much worse they would be if McDavid didn't score like he does for them.

Taylor Hall has 68 points, the next highest scorer is Hischier with 41 points. Crazy. MacKinnon is carrying the AVs, if they can sneak into a wildcard spot, I think he might deserve it.

Who do you think it should go to?

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[412 Others]

the hart trophy does not = best player

half the criteria (perception of "carrying a team") is out of a player's control.

 

[skillhockey]

The best player might not win if team misses playoffs, but Mcdavid hasn't been best this year even though there are still games to go. Also you have to play most of the games, half seasons don't mean jack shit. Also Lemieux is the example of winning out of playoffs and also only playing 3/4 of season. If you're good enough, you can still win.

 

[daver]

Care to give McDavid , a Hedman, Sergachev ,Stamkos to work with on the PP, instead of Letestu, Strome, and Lucic.

Last year the Oilers trio of McDavid, Draisaitl and Lucic was one of the top PP scoring trios in the league. Are you saying that McDavid's PP numbers were inflated last year due to him having some of the best PP linemates? That's what you seem to be saying about Kucherov

 

[CatOTails]

the hart trophy does not = best player

half the criteria (perception of "carrying a team") is out of a player's control.

Oh, please, tell this to voters, as they seem to ignore it.

 

[Taak19]

Not accusing you of this, but I find it hilarious that people will bash Crosby for this exact same argument.

Missing 8 games is different than missing 40. But I see your point.

 

[Fataldogg]

The good ole stacked team argument. Gotta love it.

Did you happen to catch how terrible Tampa looked against Toronto without Kucherov? It was borderline unwatchable. PP was horrific.

I can't take this seriously. Watch a Rangers, Islanders or Coyotes game if you want to watch unwatchable hockey.

 

[rintinw]

Taylor Hall is the exact definition of MVP. I don't see how anyone could argue against a guy who has a 27 point lead (while missing 5 games) on the next highest scorer on his team. He has a 35 point lead on the 3rd leading scorer. The Devils are in a playoff spot and would likely be one of the 5 worst teams in the NHL without him.

However, he is far down the scoring and doesn't have a big name. The award will go to Kucherov most likely unless McDavid goes on a tear and wills Edmonton to the playoffs. There are some other good candidates like Wheeler, Mackinnon, etc. but Hall is very clearly the "most valuable player to his team".

Kucherov should get the Lindsay, which is not really punishing him. Also, this is all as of right now, things could easily change.

I would say that most of that gap is caused mostly because Hall plays on 1st PP unit and Hischier on 2nd. I mean 17 out of 28 point difference is in PP points (23 vs 6).

 

[Little Psycho]

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BUT BROWN MISSED A GAME!!!

I'm so f***ing tired of seeing these same damn names f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶E̶A̶S̶T̶E̶R̶N̶ ̶T̶E̶A̶M̶S̶ plastered all over the media. It's like these idiots don't know that the Kings exists.

 

[rintinw]

By "new age definition" you mean the literal definition of the award, as per NHL.com?

The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

I agree with the general consensus that it's the MVP trophy, it should be the literal most valuable (best) player. But that's not the definition of the award, and the "to his team" part allows for a legitimate case for Hall to be made. While it's true that every team would be worse without their best player, there's a pretty big gap between Tampa/Pitts losing Kucherov/Crosby and the Devils losing Hall. The Devils are coming off being the 4th worst team in the league and this year 3 out of their 4 leading scorers after Hall are rookies. Their #1 goalie hasn't played in over a month due to injury, and yet they're somehow still battling for a top 3 spot in the division (even within striking distance of #1). I think it's reasonable to think they'd be a bottom 5 team without Hall this year, and that's way worse than what Pitts would be without Crosby.

Actually it may be the definition. It depends whether you look at relative value or absolute value. Best player of the league still makes his team better by biggest absolute value (i.e difference between "values" of a team without him and with him is biggest of all players). What you argue is the definition implies biggest relative value (i.e ratio between "values" of a team without him and with him is biggest of all players). I think it's vague enough for both explanations.

As for why it should be literal most valuable (best) player it's very simple. Measuring relative value allows for big part of the requirement to be independent of a player. The moment you start voting accordingly the meaning of the trophy sooner or later diminishes. Because almost every season there is someone like Hall (player having a great season on a bubble team that had horrible previous season).

 

[RDTBay4]

I can't take this seriously. Watch a Rangers, Islanders or Coyotes game if you want to watch unwatchable hockey.

Borderline is the key word.

 

[george14]

Missing 8 games is different than missing 40. But I see your point.

True, but even in seasons like 2013 where Sid was #2 in points, yet missed 25% of the season. You had the same people screaming "he can't provide value if he missed that much time". It's a complete double standard.

But thanks for acknowledging my point, most will just glaze over it and continue the narrative lol.

BUT BROWN MISSED A GAME!!!

I'm so ****ing tired of seeing these same damn names f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶E̶A̶S̶T̶E̶R̶N̶ ̶T̶E̶A̶M̶S̶ plastered all over the media. It's like these idiots don't know that the Kings exists.

Kopitar deserves some love. I think the main difference is the Kings have a championship history, recently at least. Kopitar, Brown, Quick, Doughty are all household names and the Kings are a much better defensive team than the Devils.

Honestly, I consider myself a pretty big hockey fan and I couldn't even name 5 Devils without looking at their roster. The production proves that.

 

[ziggyjoe212]

I agree that "level of importance to your team" should play into the MVP discussion.

For that reason I don't think anyone from Tampa or Pittsburgh deserves the MVP this year.

I would give it to MacKinnon.