Prospect Info: The 2015 NHL Draft Thread III

[Cheddabombs]

give me Barzal or Rantanen

This is where I'm at right now as well, preferably the latter. I'd still be happy with Zacha but those are have taken over as priority #1/1b given where we'll likely finish.

 

[Devils Dominion]

This is where I'm at right now as well, preferably the latter. I'd still be happy with Zacha but those are have taken over as priority #1/1b given where we'll likely finish.

I like Rantanen but what Finn has ever done well here in NJ?
I'm not so sure I trust our Euro scouts with such an important pick either.

Zacha being in the OHL around our better scouts is a plus.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I like Rantanen but what Finn has ever done well here in NJ?
I'm not so sure I trust our Euro scouts with such an important pick either.

Zacha being in the OHL around our better scouts is a plus.

I don't buy that argument. Nationality can only play so much of factor. Every individual is different, be it skill sets or personalities that influences their level of succes with a certain team. I'm not comfortable being so cautious because other Finish players haven't worked out here (which I'm not even sure is in the case, I don't have the numbers handy). They were their own players, Rantanen is his own player and he is a damn good prospect. And better scouts doesn't equal a better player.

 

[R8Devs]

I like Rantanen but what Finn has ever done well here in NJ?
I'm not so sure I trust our Euro scouts with such an important pick either.

Zacha being in the OHL around our better scouts is a plus.

how many finns have they picked where you could even try to make a conclusion like that.

The Euro scouts haven't even had that many picks recently anyway so it's hard to judge the scouting when they have picked 5 guys from Europe since 2008. They have so many North American picks over the same time period. 2 of the recent Euro picks are in the NHL with Larsson and Josefson, while 4 of the recent NA picks are in the NHL(Henrique, Severson, Merrill, and Gelinas). And they haven't picked a Finn since the 6th round of 2007.

Rantanen is obviously collectively ranked high by scouts that are not NJ's so it's not like if they pick him they are the only ones who think he should be drafted high.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Conte simply CANNOT miss on this pick.

If he picks the Finn, he best be sure that he's closer to Teemu than Ruutu.

 

[R8Devs]

Also trading for Ruutu is North American pro scouting. Not euro amateur scouting.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Also trading for Ruutu is North American pro scouting. Not euro amateur scouting.

If you're referring to my joke above, do you think I thought Conte traded for Ruutu?

No, it was a joke meaning that Conte and his scouts better find a skilled impact player like Teemu Selanne instead of a grinder like Ruutu.

And don't mean a guy that will score 76 goals his rookie season, but a highly talented skilled forward.

 

[R8Devs]

No it's more of a continuation of the reply about Finns on the Devils.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Button has the disadvantage in that he has to juggle a studio job along with traveling to different places to see the prospects. With Barzal, if Button hasn't gotten out to see him in the last six weeks then that's probably why he's ranking him lower. I think I've read that a single scout might see a particular player 8-10 times during the draft year. I can only imagine Button might only get to see certain players 1-3 times because of scheduling.

Kylington apparently has a disastrous tournament recently. McKeen's and ISS all dropped him into the 20s. Personally find it odd to put that much stock into one tournament, but it seems like multiple scouting services thought he looked that bad.

The only reason we are even talking about Crouse is because of one tournament.

We want a center. Barzal still fits the bill. I think he can be a future number 1.

Also the rag on conte stuff is getting old. Go back to the actual drafts and pull the draft rankings out. Majority of our picks line up with collective league thinking nearly every time. You can't play the hindsight game with this because no one knows when a Henrique is going to spring from the weeds.

Even with Pearson pick everyone loves bringing up. Matteau was consistently ranked higher and in some cases so was our Severson.

The conte bashing is more a meme and lacking in real facts.

 

[Sascha Goc]

how many finns have they picked where you could even try to make a conclusion like that.

The Euro scouts haven't even had that many picks recently anyway so it's hard to judge the scouting when they have picked 5 guys from Europe since 2008. They have so many North American picks over the same time period. 2 of the recent Euro picks are in the NHL with Larsson and Josefson, while 4 of the recent NA picks are in the NHL(Henrique, Severson, Merrill, and Gelinas). And they haven't picked a Finn since the 6th round of 2007.

Rantanen is obviously collectively ranked high by scouts that are not NJ's so it's not like if they pick him they are the only ones who think he should be drafted high.

I was looking through the Devils draft history and you are absolutely right it's hard to make any concrete trends out since over franchise history we have drafted so few compared to NA players. What's even more crazy is this the first time since 1989 we are primed to take a fwd in the top 10 and first time since 1993 we will take a forward in the top half of the first round.

1993 - Denis Pederson-13th Ovr
1991- Brian Rolston-11th Ovr
1989- Bill Guerin-5th Ovr

Those are the last three times we selected a forward in the top half of the first round.

 

[Czech Trio]

Mangiapane (38), Bracco (49), Korostelev (69) good 2nd rd options. With 2 pick in the 2nd im pretty excited to pick up some quality forwards.

Gropp, Musil, and Greenway are all players I've read good things about and they are ranked in 3rd territory.

This looks like a deep draft.

One thing about keeping a tab on Blandisi is that his teammate Mangiapane is putting up good numbers. 99 points in 63 games, but he is pretty small.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/images/draftanalysissmall.jpg

Pretty interesting graph showing likelihood of NHL success by draft position. Having first round picks, especially high first round picks, helps a lot.

The odds of drafting a 1st liner from picks 1-5 is 40%. From picks 21-40? About 6%.

 

[glenwo2]

http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/images/draftanalysissmall.jpg

Pretty interesting graph showing likelihood of NHL success by draft position. Having first round picks, especially high first round picks, helps a lot.

The odds of drafting a 1st liner from picks 1-5 is 40%. From picks 21-40? About 6%.

In other news, water is wet.

I mean it's obvious that the higher a team drafts, the more likelihood that player drafted in the first round(with some exceptions) ends up being a 1st liner.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

In other news, water is wet.

I mean it's obvious that the higher a team drafts, the more likelihood that player drafted in the first round(with some exceptions) ends up being a 1st liner.

I didn't know the difference was a 6.5x greater likelihood from picks 1-5 to 21-40.

Picks 6-10 boast a 25% first liner rate, 4x picks 21-40.

Based on this, it actually wouldn't be a bad idea to trade an entire draft for a top 10 pick if you're picking late in the first two rounds.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Here's another very simple reason why the Devils don't have the best prospects:

http://www.diebytheblade.com/2015/2...work-in-the-salary-cap-era-nhl-an-analysis-on

They've had the 6th lowest draft pick value in the first two rounds since 2000.

Look at how many green boxes Los Angeles, Chicago and the NY Islanders had.

Granted, a team like Detroit bucks the trend. And a team like Florida shows that high picks aren't everything.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Does this take into account the changing in lotto system next year and how a full strip down like buffalo is doing won't work as well as they could finish last and pick 4th overall?

 

[AusDev]

http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/images/draftanalysissmall.jpg

Pretty interesting graph showing likelihood of NHL success by draft position. Having first round picks, especially high first round picks, helps a lot.

The odds of drafting a 1st liner from picks 1-5 is 40%. From picks 21-40? About 6%.

That graph is pretty telling. I remember reading someone say (I think it was Button) that in relation to the draft, with a first round pick you are aiming to get a top-6 forward, a top 4 defenseman or a starting goaltender, but the fact that the top 5 picks collectively only have around a 40% chance of getting a first liner says a lot.

When we complain about the lack of high end forwards we've drafted of late, we should probably remember where we have been picking. Someone here (I think it was Jim) listed the position of our first draft pick in each of the last 15 or so drafts and I believe (could be wrong) it averaged out to about 29th overall. That's a late place to be drafting if you are expecting true 1st line talent. The fact that even getting an NHL regular in that range is only about a 1 in 4 chance says a lot.

To think that Larsson's 4th overall is the only pick we have had in the top half of the first round since 1996 is mind blowing. Almost 20 years with only 2 picks in the top 15.

I'm not defending every pick the scouting staff have made, but we should probably be a little realistic about what to expect from the scouts with the picks they've been given to use.

 

[MichaelJ]

Mangiapane (38), Bracco (49), Korostelev (69) good 2nd rd options. With 2 pick in the 2nd im pretty excited to pick up some quality forwards.

Gropp, Musil, and Greenway are all players I've read good things about and they are ranked in 3rd territory.

This looks like a deep draft.

One thing about keeping a tab on Blandisi is that his teammate Mangiapane is putting up good numbers. 99 points in 63 games, but he is pretty small.

I like Roy and Beauvillier as well. Brisebois seems like an interesting later D pick.

 

[Emperoreddy]

If anything scouts deserve credit for spinning so much late round gold lately. Most of the defense and Henrique. (Though Severson should of went in the 1st round. I don't know how he slipped. He makes more sense at 29 and 30 then how that draft actually went down)

Credit to Lou for turning late round fodder into Kovy too

 

[NJDevs26]

I didn't know the difference was a 6.5x greater likelihood from picks 1-5 to 21-40.

Picks 6-10 boast a 25% first liner rate, 4x picks 21-40.

Based on this, it actually wouldn't be a bad idea to trade an entire draft for a top 10 pick if you're picking late in the first two rounds.

While I don't doubt the success rate goes down the further down you draft, what do they define as a first-liner exactly? Some people's definition of a first-liner is more generous than others.

And what's the success rate for defensemen with similar picks?

 

[Emperoreddy]

While I don't doubt the success rate goes down the further down you draft, what do they define as a first-liner exactly? Some people's definition of a first-liner is more generous than others.

And what's the success rate for defensemen with similar picks?

Assuming a 60-70 point forward that can create his own offense and lift others?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Defensemen are less successful at the top of the draft. I'm sure if you looked at it, top-rated defensemen become NHLers more often, but if you look around the league, guys like Keith, Weber, Letang, Subban, often (well, not "often" but you know) come from the second round or later. That's the biggest reason a lot of people advocate giving more weight to forwards at the top of the draft.

 

[thethinglonger]

Mangiapane (38), Bracco (49), Korostelev (69) good 2nd rd options. With 2 pick in the 2nd im pretty excited to pick up some quality forwards.

Gropp, Musil, and Greenway are all players I've read good things about and they are ranked in 3rd territory.

This looks like a deep draft.

One thing about keeping a tab on Blandisi is that his teammate Mangiapane is putting up good numbers. 99 points in 63 games, but he is pretty small.

This is quite a deep draft, as Joel Eriksson-Ek didn't even make it on Button's list, which is surprising because he's looking to be Sweden's best forward for this draft. The one guy that I'm really leaning towards for a possible 2nd round pick is Alex Dergachyov, a big Russian (6'4", 210 lbs) that just bulls his way around but has a good all-around aspect of his play from forechecking to a good wrister to a smart playmaker. Seems to me like a poor man's Malkin.

He'll probably get drafted in the late 1st round though, but I would be really happy if he fell to us.

 

[MadDevil]

That graph is pretty telling. I remember reading someone say (I think it was Button) that in relation to the draft, with a first round pick you are aiming to get a top-6 forward, a top 4 defenseman or a starting goaltender, but the fact that the top 5 picks collectively only have around a 40% chance of getting a first liner says a lot.

When we complain about the lack of high end forwards we've drafted of late, we should probably remember where we have been picking. Someone here (I think it was Jim) listed the position of our first draft pick in each of the last 15 or so drafts and I believe (could be wrong) it averaged out to about 29th overall. That's a late place to be drafting if you are expecting true 1st line talent. The fact that even getting an NHL regular in that range is only about a 1 in 4 chance says a lot.

To think that Larsson's 4th overall is the only pick we have had in the top half of the first round since 1996 is mind blowing. Almost 20 years with only 2 picks in the top 15.

I'm not defending every pick the scouting staff have made, but we should probably be a little realistic about what to expect from the scouts with the picks they've been given to use.

Just looking at that chart, we've had just 1 pick in the first 2 rounds in 5 of our last 12 drafts. Considering how much of a crapshoot the draft is after the second round, and that many of our first rounders have been late firsts, it's no wonder we haven't drafted an impact forward. And yes, I know other teams find good players later in the draft, but they also miss probably just as much as we have. We haven't been in a situation like a Chicago or LA where they were bad for pretty much the better part of a decade and were able to draft cornerstone players and stockpile assets.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Just looking at that chart, we've had just 1 pick in the first 2 rounds in 5 of our last 12 drafts. Considering how much of a crapshoot the draft is after the second round, and that many of our first rounders have been late firsts, it's no wonder we haven't drafted an impact forward. And yes, I know other teams find good players later in the draft, but they also miss probably just as much as we have. We haven't been in a situation like a Chicago or LA where they were bad for pretty much the better part of a decade and were able to draft cornerstone players and stockpile assets.

We have had later round success. It's just been mostly defense and Henrique the only real forward.

We have a couple of guys that could even it out but it's to soon to tell.

This is the year to draft an impact forward. We have position and the draft appears deep.

Of course we still have like a 7% chance at THE impact forward in McDavid.