Did an analysis of the teams picking 3rd through 12th and their remaining schedules. Carolina actually has the easiest schedule, facing non playoff teams 17 times. Arizona's is on of the hardest so expect the dogs to drop to settling in behind the Oilers and Sabres.
Carolina has a way to go to catch us so realistically, slot then in the #4 spot.
Philly, with Mason back, should stay ahead of us and Columbus has a few games in hand and should as well.
That means that 5, 6, and 7 should consist of Ottawa, Toronto, NJ unless Dallas drops. Our schedule is home heavy and we also play a lot of non-playoff teams (15 out of 29 games) so I'm guessing we end up at 6th at best and 8th at worst. I think is a big difference though. Assuming a GM is enamored enough with Crouse for him to get picked before us, that means that one of McEichel, marner, Strome, Hanafin, should be available at #6. At 7 Zacha is still possible but if we drop to 8th, we're into the next tier of forwards (Barzal, Rantannen) or Dmen (Werenski, Kylington, Provonov).
I think it's critical that we are in the top 7 picks in order to get a top tier (not McEichel generational talent) forward.
Personally, I'm hoping Ottawa goes defense although I doubt it and that Toronto likes Crouse although I doubt that pass on Strome if he's available.
I could see it shaking out like:
Buffalo/Edmonton: mcEichel
Arizona: Marner (the Domi and Dvorak factors)
Carolina: Hanafin
Ottawa: Strome
Toronto: Crouse
NJ: Zacha