The 1st half of the 2014 draft ANALYSIS & Discussion Thread

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Round|Good Value|Not Good Value
1|Lemieux, Jagr |Richard, Yzerman
2|Esposito, Lalonde|Kharlamov, Pronger
3|Brodeur, Makarov|Niedermayer, Fedorov
4|Nobody really stands out|
5|St. Louis, Thornton |Primeau, Broadbent
6|Schriner, Stewart, Cowley|Middleton, Datsyuk
7|Barry, Martinec|Smith, Gonchar
8| Balderis |Konstantinov, Gainey, Barber, Provost
9|Bowie, Dillon|Bailey, Carbonneau
10|Krutov|Hall?, Shutt
11|Goldham, Backstrom |Bondra, Andreychuk, Tikkanen
12|Novy, Weiland|Nobody really sticks out
13| Patrick |Toews, Sanderson
14|Nieuwendyk, Gottselig, Kerr |Corbeau?
15|Burrows, Demitra , Vadnais|Abel, Sutter, Clark, Reijo, Morrow
16|Barrasso, Rowe, Hatcher|Nobody sticks out

None of these guys are bad players, but I either liked them compared to other guys available, or thought there better alternatives available.

Disagree with the bolded. Not saying all those guys were bad value, just that guys like Jagr, Thornton, and Backstrom went where they should have gone. Jagr and Thornton were underrated in the past, but this is a good spot for them. Balderis, previously one of the draft's big steals seemed to go about where he should too. Frank Patrick fell and IMO it was deserved; I really don't see what makes him any better than Lloyd Cook or Bobby Rowe other than his last name. Kerr was okay value for a PP specialist, but Camille Henry went a few rounds later and does the same thing (though in different way). Pavel Demitra? Meh. Pure VsX pick - solid value, underrated in the past, but nothing special where he was selected.

On the other side, I don't see why Tikkanen was a bad pick - I was strongly considering him if Tony Leswick was selected. Sure, he's out of place on a scoring line, but he was one of the better checking wingers available when he was selected and he was clutch in the playoffs.

Datsyuk? Not the greatest pick, but he only went 4 spots over Modano. In a vaccum, compared to someone like Schriner or Cowley, they were bad value, but they play a completely different role, and if you wanted a two-way center at this point, I don't see any better.

I'm putting a ? by Joe Hall and Bert Corbeau. I don't know jack **** about Hall other than the fact that he was a physical beast who died from the Spanish flu and is now in the HHOF. I guess that in the absence of more information, it was a weak pick. Did he deserve to be enshrined based on his play alone or did his early death in the middle of the cancelled 1919 Cup finals have a lot to do with it?

I would have thought Corbeau was a bad pick in the past, but SS did pull out a lot of information about his defensive game. Still, Corbeau is not in the Hall and the NHA didn't have regular All-Star teams. What I really want to know is if Corbeau was the best non-HHOF NHA defenseman. If so, he fits right in with the Art Duncan/Lloyd Cook/Frank Patrick/Bobby Rowe tier of PCHAers. I'm not yet convinced he is there, but SS did some good work to show that MAYBE he was. Right now, one of this board's major historical blind spots (perhaps the biggest one remaining) involves the second tier stars of the NHA and early NHL. We have a good idea of the second tier stars of the PCHA because of Mickey Ion's All-Star teams, but we just don't have that in the NHA and early NHL. With forwards, at least we have stats, but stats are inadequate for defensemen.

 

[markrander87]

Round|Good Value|Not Good Value
1|Lemieux, Jagr|Richard, Yzerman
2|Esposito, Lalonde|Kharlamov, Pronger
3|Brodeur, Makarov|Niedermayer, Fedorov
4|Nobody really stands out|
5|St. Louis, Thornton|Primeau, Broadbent
6|Schriner, Stewart, Cowley|Middleton, Datsyuk
7|Barry, Martinec|Smith, Gonchar
8|Balderis|Konstantinov, Gainey, Barber, Provost
9|Bowie, Dillon|Bailey, Carbonneau
10|Krutov|Hall, Shutt
11|Goldham, Backstrom|Bondra, Andreychuk, Tikkanen
12|Novy, Weiland|Nobody really sticks out
13|Patrick|Toews, Sanderson
14|Nieuwendyk, Gottselig, Kerr|Corbeau
15|Burrows, Demitra, Vadnais|Abel, Sutter, Clark, Reijo, Morrow
16|Barrasso, Rowe, Hatcher|Nobody sticks out

None of these guys are bad players, but I either liked them compared to other guys available, or thought there better alternatives available.

Great list Billy, i'm happy you saw the value in Brodeur, Backstrom and Vadnais.

I'm also not that surprised with the Provost mention on the other side. The pick was based more on the division we were in and how he matches up against those elite LW. There will be some varying opinions on how important that it when voting.

 

[Dr Pepper]

My first two picks were "not good value".

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Im glad the Schriner pick is getting a lot of love.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Whew finally a list without Neely on it

 

[King Forsberg]

My first two picks were "not good value".

At least you didn't take a baseball player with one of those picks

 

[Dreakmur]

I don't know jack **** about Hall other than the fact that he was a physical beast who died from the Spanish flu and is now in the HHOF. I guess that in the absence of more information, it was a weak pick. Did he deserve to be enshrined based on his play alone or did his early death in the middle of the cancelled 1919 Cup finals have a lot to do with it?

His offensive game is quite strong as well.

 

[Dr Pepper]

At least you didn't take a baseball player with one of those picks

....I don't know to what you are referring.

 

[BraveCanadian]

My first two picks were "not good value".

That doesn't mean they were bad picks.. depending on the team you surround them with..

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Disagree with the bolded. Not saying all those guys were bad value, just that guys like Jagr, Thornton, and Backstrom went where they should have gone. Jagr and Thornton were underrated in the past, but this is a good spot for them. Balderis, previously one of the draft's big steals seemed to go about where he should too. Frank Patrick fell and IMO it was deserved; I really don't see what makes him any better than Lloyd Cook or Bobby Rowe other than his last name. Kerr was okay value for a PP specialist, but Camille Henry went a few rounds later and does the same thing (though in different way). Pavel Demitra? Meh. Pure VsX pick - solid value, underrated in the past, but nothing special where he was selected.

There are certain guys that I like more than others; Thornton and Jagr are definitely two of them. I like Backstrom's ES offense combined with strong defensive play, even though he was never a penalty killer. I like Kerr because he was a Flyer and was one of my dad's favorites so I guess I have an inherent bias for him. I was trying to pick two guys per round so there were obviously some bigger steals (Lemieux) than others, but they look all the same in a column. Over Demitra's 11 good year in the NHL, he missed an average of 13.63 games a year. His VsX makes him a solid pick already (I put zero stock into that Selke finish), but his PPG is even better.

On the other side, I don't see why Tikkanen was a bad pick - I was strongly considering him if Tony Leswick was selected. Sure, he's out of place on a scoring line, but he was one of the better checking wingers available when he was selected and he was clutch in the playoffs.

Over 31% of Tikkanen's offense over his career came on the power play, and I'd be shocked if he was on the PP here. He dropped this year, and I think he should've dropped a little more.

Datsyuk? Not the greatest pick, but he only went 4 spots over Modano. In a vaccum, compared to someone like Schriner or Cowley, they were bad value, but they play a completely different role, and if you wanted a two-way center at this point, I don't see any better.

The HOH Center project left me with a lesser opinion of Datsyuk, specifically his defensive abilities because of the fact that Zetterberg was chosen as the guy to match up against Crosby two years in a row in the finals.

I'm putting a ? by Joe Hall and Bert Corbeau. I don't know jack **** about Hall other than the fact that he was a physical beast who died from the Spanish flu and is now in the HHOF. I guess that in the absence of more information, it was a weak pick. Did he deserve to be enshrined based on his play alone or did his early death in the middle of the cancelled 1919 Cup finals have a lot to do with it?

The defenseman taken after Hall were Pratt, Lowe, and Green. After Corbeau were Egan, Ramage, and Burrows. I can say pretty confidently that I'd rather have the three taken after those guys rather than them.

 

[ImporterExporter]

There are certain guys that I like more than others; Thornton and Jagr are definitely two of them. I like Backstrom's ES offense combined with strong defensive play, even though he was never a penalty killer. I like Kerr because he was a Flyer and was one of my dad's favorites so I guess I have an inherent bias for him. I was trying to pick two guys per round so there were obviously some bigger steals (Lemieux) than others, but they look all the same in a column. Over Demitra's 11 good year in the NHL, he missed an average of 13.63 games a year. His VsX makes him a solid pick already (I put zero stock into that Selke finish), but his PPG is even better.



Over 31% of Tikkanen's offense over his career came on the power play, and I'd be shocked if he was on the PP here. He dropped this year, and I think he should've dropped a little more.


The HOH Center project left me with a lesser opinion of Datsyuk, specifically his defensive abilities because of the fact that Zetterberg was chosen as the guy to match up against Crosby two years in a row in the finals.



The defenseman taken after Hall were Pratt, Lowe, and Green. After Corbeau were Egan, Ramage, and Burrows. I can say pretty confidently that I'd rather have the three taken after those guys rather than them.

This is pretty weak. How do you have a lesser opinion of the defensive abilities of a 3 time Selke winner? And BTW, not matching up with Crosby those 2 years had more to do with playing style (Zetterberg is much more physical and thus a better person to "shadow" Sid) than anything. I completely understand why Babcock would put HZ on Crosby given the only real chance you have is to rile him up and get him off his game with the physical stuff.

And besides, there wasn't anyone at C remotely close to having the two way abilities of Datsyuk at pick 143.

Just my .02

 

[ResilientBeast]

This is pretty weak. How do you have a lesser opinion of the defensive abilities of a 3 time Selke winner? And BTW, not matching up with Crosby those 2 years had more to do with playing style (Zetterberg is much more physical and thus a better person to "shadow" Sid) than anything. I completely understand why Babcock would put HZ on Crosby given the only real chance you have is to rile him up and get him off his game with the physical stuff.

And besides, there wasn't anyone at C remotely close to having the two way abilities of Datsyuk at pick 143.

Just my .02

And on top of that Datsyuk is the better offensive player, so it makes sense to get him away from a head to head with Sid.

 

[ImporterExporter]

And on top of that Datsyuk is the better offensive player, so it makes sense to get him away from a head to head with Sid.

Another solid point.

Last year Datsyuk went 135, so i took him just slight after that position this year. The only guy at C i'd listen to above PD would be Cowley but his style didn't fit what i wanted/need on my 2nd line. And you can argue that the defensive gap between Datsyuk and Cowley is bigger than the offensive gap. But again, i understand valuing Cowley a little bit higher. He fit what TDMM needed and was the best pick of that particular round in my book.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

This is pretty weak. How do you have a lesser opinion of the defensive abilities of a 3 time Selke winner? And BTW, not matching up with Crosby those 2 years had more to do with playing style (Zetterberg is much more physical and thus a better person to "shadow" Sid) than anything. I completely understand why Babcock would put HZ on Crosby given the only real chance you have is to rile him up and get him off his game with the physical stuff.

And besides, there wasn't anyone at C remotely close to having the two way abilities of Datsyuk at pick 143.

Just my .02

For the guy that's supposed to be revered as one of the best two-way centers ever, you'd think the style of the guy wouldn't matter all that much. His coach picked a guy that's never won a Selke to cover him instead of a guy that's won 3. Is that a statement about Datsyuk's Selkes being overrated, or Zetterberg's defense being underrated? Personally, I think it's more Zetterberg being underrated. Is Zetterberg a better matchup for Sid? I would have thought Zetterberg would be a better matchup for Malkin, honestly. Henrik and Pavel are the same height and one pound apart. I would have thought Henrik's grit would be a better fit to match up with Malkin's size and power, and Datsyuk's speed would fit with Crosby. Datsyuk is also a pretty poor playoff performer.

Datsyuk's a great player, but I think there was better value elsewhere.

 

[ImporterExporter]

How is a guy with 103 points in 140 games at a +34, especially when he wasn't seeing much PP time until the 06-07 season considered poor in the playoffs? Just wondering how you come to that conclusion.

 

[BraveCanadian]

For the guy that's supposed to be revered as one of the best two-way centers ever, you'd think the style of the guy wouldn't matter all that much.

As another example Dave Keon was apparently not normally matched up against Beliveau because of the size mismatch.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

How is a guy with 103 points in 140 games at a +34, especially when he wasn't seeing much PP time until the 06-07 season considered poor in the playoffs? Just wondering how you come to that conclusion.

Well, his points-per-game goes from .979 in the regular season to .736 in the playoffs, a pretty large drop. A decrease is to be expected because of the tighter checking game, but not that large. That's a difference of .243PPG. Comparatively, Zetterberg goes from .949 in the regular season to .927 in the playoffs, a drop of .022. In Detroit's two runs to the finals between 2007-2009, Datsyuk was outclassed by Zetterberg both runs. Those two seasons were Datsyuk's best regular seasons he's ever had. He did get injured in 08-09, but his performance in the playoffs before the injury was lukewarm, with 7 points in 13 games.

 

[VanIslander]

Over 31% of Tikkanen's offense over his career came on the power play, and I'd be shocked if he was on the PP here. He dropped this year, and I think he should've dropped a little more.

I am one of greatest fans of The Grate One, rooting for him when he joined the Oil in my teen years (certainly the best winger Messier ever clicked with), hell... I even went to see him play and assistant coach with Anyang Halla here in South Korea over eight years ago!! ... but in ten years of ATDing I have never drafted him because I have always thought of him as an all-time great Bottom-6 forward not a top-6 forward, and he's always been drafted earlier than he should have imo.

I cannot name five better third line left wingers (maybe three, but not five) if I was constructing an all-time great squad!

I've fantasized about having a Tikkanen-Messier-Howe line in an all-time draft (I mean literally in my dreams, while I've slept), but his skillset is so Bottom-6 it ain't funny, though he was very CLUTCH. The 1991 playoffs versus Calgary was an epic 7-game series and Tikki was the difference big time. One of the greatest series I've ever seen, and I've seen fantastic ones since '78. I was in uni in Lethbridge and the Battle of Alberta was the biggest thing and Esa shone in that series like none other he and few others had been in. Every game he was huge. Goals, hits, drawn penalties, every shift was a delight! I skipped classes a few days to go to Calgary to root on the Oil. (The Flames faithful be darned!)

 

[Sturminator]

And besides, there wasn't anyone at C remotely close to having the two way abilities of Datsyuk at pick 143.

Mickey Mackay and Cooney Weiland are both similar to Datsyuk in that they were small defensive terrors who mainly patrolled the neutral zone, and were also dangerous offensively. I would take them in the order they were selected this year (Datsyuk, Mackay, Weiland), but they are not nearly as far behind Pavel as you seem to think. In general, it is rare to run into big dropoffs (in terms of role or position) from one player to the next in the ATD. Datsyuk -> Mackay was not one of them.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Mickey Mackay and Cooney Weiland are both similar to Datsyuk in that they were small defensive terrors who mainly patrolled the neutral zone, and were also dangerous offensively. I would take them in the order they were selected this year (Datsyuk, Mackay, Weiland), but they are not nearly as far behind Pavel as you seem to think. In general, it is rare to run into big dropoffs (in terms of role or position) from one player to the next in the ATD. Datsyuk -> Mackay was not one of them.

MacKay, sure. Weiland? Seriously? I mean, I can see a stylistic similarity, but I don't see him particularly close to them in quality.

 

[Elvis P]

Craig Ramsay - Guy Carbonneau - Joe Klukay

I like this 3rd line.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Best shutdown line in the draft i think....

 

[markrander87]

Best shutdown line in the draft i think....

It's good, I also like:

Don Marshall - Ralph Backstrom - Claude Provost

The real life chemistry between Backstrom - Provost is a plus

 

[ImporterExporter]

Absolutely. You could definitely argue for either line.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Depending on matchups, i will move Datsyuk down to the 3rd line (Sundin up to 2nd) to go with Bob Pulford and Dirk Graham which is right up there as well as a stopping unit.