Blue Jays Discussion: That's it: Jays win, but don't get help from TB/WSH & are eliminated from playoff contention

[Bluelines]

Simulate the season 10 times with the players all playing the same number of games and we probably make the playoffs 7 times and compete for the division 3 times and win it once. Given the performance of the team this year, we are very unlucky to be missing even the wild card game.

Wouldn't surprise if this team won 100 games next year even with the potential subtractions

I think this year is a special year, we had a 2B who broke the all time HR record for 2B, doubtful we get the same production. Vladdy had an MVP type year, where he was in legit contention for the Triple Crown, considering how rare that is, I think it is doubtful we get the same production. Robbie Ray was a Cy Young candidate for a good part of the year, not many teams get Cy Young like pitching. Will we have that good of a starting rotation again? I think we might see an improvement from our bullpen.

Who knows maybe Vlad is a every year MVP candidate, maybe we get All Star production from our 2B again, maybe Minoah or Pearson become legit studs and we have legit show stopper #1 and #2 starters.

I'm not saying it wont happen again, I'm saying this years production was something special, something I can't recall ever seeing from a Jays team. Just checked this team scored 846 runs, 6th all time in Jays history. For a 162 game season this was their 6th least runs allowed in the history of the franchise. Special season for the Jays, frustrating to see them lose out in game 162, such a waste.

 

[theaub]

Definitely some 90th+ percentile seasons, but that's to be expected when you have a 99 win pythag.

I think the big issue is that we haven't had an actual sustainably good baseball team in a full generation (the 2005-2010 teams were sustainably above average from a run differential perspective), so this is kind of unchartered territory.

 

[weems]

I think this year is a special year, we had a 2B who broke the all time HR record for 2B, doubtfull we get the same production. Valddy had an MVP type year, where he was in legit contention for the Triple Crown, considering how rate that is doubtful we get the same production. Robbie Ray was a Cy Young candidate for a good part of the year, not many teams get Cy Young like pitching. Will we have that good of a starting rotation again? I think we might see an improvement from our bullpen.

Who knows maybe Vlad is a every year MVP candidate, maybe we get All Star production from our 2B again, maybe Minoah or Pearson become legit studs and we have legit show stopper #1 and #2 starters.

I'm not saying it wont happen again, I'm saying this years production was something special, something I can't recall ever seeing from a Jays team. Just checked this team scored 846 runs, 6th all time in Jays history. For a 162 game season this was their 6th least runs allowed in the history of the franchise. Special season for the Jays, frustrating to see them lose out in game 162, such a waste.

I mean this wouldnt really be shocking considering he's been regarded as a generational talent for awhile.

 

[Bluelines]

I mean this wouldnt really be shocking considering he's been regarded as a generational talent for awhile.

Agreed but expecting him to be a 45HR/125RBI/.300 every year is a heavy weight to put on the shoulders of a kid. If he hits 35HR/95RBI/.280 next year that would be considered a disappointment by many fans. Most pros would kill for stats like that though.

Personally I think this will one of if not the best year in his pro career, that is how unique I think this years production is for a man his age. I think I read a stat that no one his age has ever performed at this level in the history of baseball.

 

[KapG]

So no ones ever done what he is at his age and you’re ready to call a top? Doesn’t make much sense…

 

[Eyedea]

Agreed but expecting him to be a 45HR/125RBI/.300 every year is a heavy weight to put on the shoulders of a kid. If he hits 35HR/95RBI/.280 next year that would be considered a disappointment by many fans. Most pros would kill for stats like that though.

Personally I think this will one of if not the best year in his pro career, that is how unique I think this years production is for a man his age. I think I read a stat that no one his age has ever performed at this level in the history of baseball.

Soto may not have had the counting stats but his production was comparable and he’s also 22. This is a new era of generational talent being ushered in (Vlad, Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Franco).

 

[Bluelines]

So no ones ever done what he is at his age and you’re ready to call a top? Doesn’t make much sense…

You have to peak somewhere, this years stats + infinity is not an option. Pitchers will adjust, they always do.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Vlad is not even a finished product, IMO. Bo isn’t either.

 

[Discoverer]

You have to peak somewhere, this years stats + infinity is not an option. Pitchers will adjust, they always do.

Vlad will adjust and learn, too. There are a lot of reasonable options between "this is his peak" and "this year's stats + infinity".

Right off the bat, the most common comparisons he got as a prospect were Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. Vlad had a better offensive season at 22 than either of those guys did, but Pujols surpassed his age-22 production in each of the next 8 seasons; Cabrera was a bit more stagnant the next few years before taking off in his late 20s, but he also surpassed his age-22 production 8 different times.

Development is never linear, but I think it's highly unlikely we've seen the best of Vlad at 22 years old.

 

[Nineteen67]

The best of Vlad is coming. The work he did last offseason paid huge dividends and I suspect he’ll use that to get even better.

 

[Bluelines]

Vlad will adjust and learn, too. There are a lot of reasonable options between "this is his peak" and "this year's stats + infinity".

Right off the bat, the most common comparisons he got as a prospect were Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. Vlad had a better offensive season at 22 than either of those guys did, but Pujols surpassed his age-22 production in each of the next 8 seasons; Cabrera was a bit more stagnant the next few years before taking off in his late 20s, but he also surpassed his age-22 production 8 different times.

Development is never linear, but I think it's highly unlikely we've seen the best of Vlad at 22 years old.

I agree but AP and MC didn't do at 22 what Vald did. No one has ever done at 22 what Vlad just did. This year is Vlads jumping off point in your example, do what no one has done at 22 and improve on that at 23 . To your point careers are not linear. Just because Vlad did amazing this year does not mean that he will be better next year. It's extremely difficult to be in contention for a Triple Crown with a month left in the season. For him to do better at anytime in his career probably means he will win the Triple Crown. Is this the expectation Jays fans have? Triple Crown or bust? If every year in his career is identical to this year, I will be ecstatic.

 

[Discoverer]

I agree but AP and MC didn't do at 22 what Vald did. No one has ever done at 22 what Vlad just did. This year is Vlads jumping off point in your example, do what no one has done at 22 and improve on that at 23 . To your point careers are not linear. Just because Vlad did amazing this year does not mean that he will be better next year. It's extremely difficult to be in contention for a Triple Crown with a month left in the season. For him to do better at anytime in his career probably means he will win the Triple Crown. Is this the expectation Jays fans have? Triple Crown or bust? If every year in his career is identical to this year, I will be ecstatic.

I'm not looking specifically at the Triple Crown because there's too much other stuff that goes into that (especially with RBIs). I'm looking at wRC+, which is pure offensive value. And I'm not even saying he's some kind of guarantee to be better next year - I just think he'll have at least a few seasons better than this one.

But I still don't really get your point. Because Vlad's better than Pujols and Cabrera were at this age, we should expect the rest of his career to be... worse?

 

[Bjindaho]

I agree but AP and MC didn't do at 22 what Vald did. No one has ever done at 22 what Vlad just did. This year is Vlads jumping off point in your example, do what no one has done at 22 and improve on that at 23 . To your point careers are not linear. Just because Vlad did amazing this year does not mean that he will be better next year. It's extremely difficult to be in contention for a Triple Crown with a month left in the season. For him to do better at anytime in his career probably means he will win the Triple Crown. Is this the expectation Jays fans have? Triple Crown or bust? If every year in his career is identical to this year, I will be ecstatic.

Nobody has every had the ball to bat skills, the raw power and patience at once.

His power projection was higher than any player has ever been given on the projection scale. Vlad improving would simply mean a little more consistency (and missing fewer pitches).

 

[barilko05]

Nobody has every had the ball to bat skills, the raw power and patience at once.

His power projection was higher than any player has ever been given on the projection scale. Vlad improving would simply mean a little more consistency (and missing fewer pitches).

I think consistency is the word. This season had a few segments (mostly towards the end) where he went into a funk and got back into bad habits. If he can limit the absolute dog crap stretches of 0 for 20ish to ones that are just slightly down from the world beater ones, the guy is going to hit 300+ with 30 or more homers and 100 rbi regularly. And I don't think there's any doubt he can do it. The improvement from last year to this year seems like proof of that.

 

[Eyedea]

I agree but AP and MC didn't do at 22 what Vald did. No one has ever done at 22 what Vlad just did. This year is Vlads jumping off point in your example, do what no one has done at 22 and improve on that at 23 . To your point careers are not linear. Just because Vlad did amazing this year does not mean that he will be better next year. It's extremely difficult to be in contention for a Triple Crown with a month left in the season. For him to do better at anytime in his career probably means he will win the Triple Crown. Is this the expectation Jays fans have? Triple Crown or bust? If every year in his career is identical to this year, I will be ecstatic.

I'd imagine one aspect he can improve in is his plate discipline. His SwStr% and contact% were both bottom 2 among Jays regulars (only Teoscar being worse in both categories). Here are some u23 comparisons from this season:

Major League Leaderboards » 2021 » Batters » Plate Discipline Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Bluelines]

I'm not looking specifically at the Triple Crown because there's too much other stuff that goes into that (especially with RBIs). I'm looking at wRC+, which is pure offensive value. And I'm not even saying he's some kind of guarantee to be better next year - I just think he'll have at least a few seasons better than this one.

But I still don't really get your point. Because Vlad's better than Pujols and Cabrera were at this age, we should expect the rest of his career to be... worse?

I think that is fair that he may have a few season better than this one.

Looking at this from purely a metric standpoint, 48HR, 111RBI, .311BA.

Home Runs - For Vlad to perform better he is probably will be in the 50 HR category. There have been just 46 50-homer seasons in Major League history. not impossible but he would be in rarefied air. https://www.mlb.com/news/every-50-home-run-season

RBI - I think we can reasonable expect him to hit 111 RBI a season with this team. It's elite but hitting 3rd in front of All Star talent should translate into similar production.

BA - . 300+ BA should be doable with his skill

 

[Suntouchable13]

Any chance MLB will change the playoff format if the Cardinals win tonight? And if the Dodgers win, MLB should change the playoff seeding format. No way the 2 best teams should be playing in the DS. They have to re-seed teams after the wild card round, IMO. IT’s dumb that the best record automatically plays the wildcard.

 

[phillipmike]

Any chance MLB will change the playoff format if the Cardinals win tonight? And if the Dodgers win, MLB should change the playoff seeding format. No way the 2 best teams should be playing in the DS. They have to re-seed teams after the wild card round, IMO. IT’s dumb that the best record automatically plays the wildcard.

Dumb stuff like has been going on for years in baseball and MLB does nothing. Even if they do something, dont expect it to be much better or to make much sense.

 

[Bjindaho]

Dumb stuff like has been going on for years in baseball and MLB does nothing. Even if they do something, dont expect it to be much better or to make much sense.

If they are deadset on 12 teams, I'd love to see the wildcards be adjusted so that it isn't guaranteed to be 2 from each league. IMO, the best 4 non division winners should make it (with the stipulation that the worst one would be stuck crossing over if need be).

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Dumb stuff like has been going on for years in baseball and MLB does nothing. Even if they do something, dont expect it to be much better or to make much sense.

Right. I still have no idea why the universal DH wasn't implemented ages ago. MLB traditionalists can take a lap

 

[EpochLink]

I know Yankee fans are Yankee fans but why did they hate Giancarlo so much the dude is an absolute beast when healthy

The key word is 'healthy', this guy is always injured through out the season.
With them paying Cole and Stanton, they are getting very little out of a crap load of money.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Outside of the obvious with Moreno getting some much needed reps, I'm pumped to see Dominguez with the oppurtunity to continue to impress

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[aingefan]

Outside of the obvious with Moreno getting some much needed reps, I'm pumped to see Dominguez with the oppurtunity to continue to impress

Jimenez, too.
Surprisingly strong ops at 915 over 180 pa’s. And at least Cre Finfrock is a boss name.
What happened with Joey Murray and Jackson Rees to end the year….anyone know?

 

[hockeywiz542]

Jays GM Atkins excited about potential in off-season to build upon team's progress - TSN.ca

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