Team Canada 2022

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yep, only for tactical, line-based reasons. I'm neither set on Tavares or Couturier.

Marner and Tavares have good chemistry, what would happen with McDavid in the mix?

How is McDavid affected by Marner and Tavares? McDavid's going to be centering the top line, probably with someone like Point on RW and either a converted center (Scheifele/Stamkos) on his left or someone like Huberdeau.

Tavares isn't good enough to be building a line around "chemistry" for him. At best, he'll be the 13th or 14th forward. He's not centering any line ahead of the elite centers Canada has available to them, and he's not starting on LW ahead of more natural LWers like Huberdeau and Marchand, nor better centers who have to be moved to wing because of how stacked Canada is down the middle.

I just can't get behind any idea that Marchand - Crosby - Bergeron shouldn't be literally the one line that's a lock. And whether it's considered the "3rd" line on the depth chart doesn't matter one bit. They'll get as much ice time as the other 2 lines anyway. Canada's not going to overplay their top two lines like a regular NHL team does.

 

[ORRFForever]

I just can't get behind any idea that Marchand - Crosby - Bergeron shouldn't be literally the one line that's a lock.

That's a double negative, right? If so, I agree, it's a locked line. Mix and match the other 9 but leave what's worked alone.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

That's a double negative, right? If so, I agree, it's a locked line. Mix and match the other 9 but leave what's worked alone.

The *only* different combination I could see Canada maybe trying if they need a shake up at some point is putting MacKinnon in Bergeron's spot, so the three Nova Scotia boys can form a line since they spend their summer's working out anyways and probably have a lot of familiarity.

 

[ORRFForever]

The *only* different combination I could see Canada maybe trying if they need a shake up at some point is putting MacKinnon in Bergeron's spot, so the three Nova Scotia boys can form a line since they spend their summer's working out anyways and probably have a lot of familiarity.

I would like to see McDavid, MacKinnon and Crosby get their own lines. Let other teams try and stop those 3 lines.

 

[Regal]

I really needed the laugh on that idiotic take on Marchand

 

[Regal]

I don't know why you wouldn't include Marner. He's a natural winger, one of the best playmakers in the game, and a capable penalty killer. With the expanded roster he should be a shoo in.

While I have Marner on my roster, I can easily see him left off just due to the nature of what he brings and the make-up of the team. Canada has lots of puck-dominant playmakers, especially at center, so playmaking wingers don't always mesh. I could see him with Point, Couturier or MacKinnon, depending on who ends up at center. I don't think he'd mesh with McDavid or Crosby very well. I think his size and underwhelming playoffs could be a factor as well.

 

[Regal]

RoR is the one who is on the bubble out of those players. He really didnt have a good year last year and was even worse in the playoffs.

Couts is like 80% chance to make it and Stone/Marner are virtual locks.

I think Barzal, Scheifele, Tavares and even Stammer are the guys that need to have good first halves to solidify a place.

How did O'Reilly not have a good year? Near point per game, best goal pace of his career, excellent underlying numbers as usual, another top 5 Selke finish...

 

[voyageur]

Mackinnon-Crosby-Stone
Barzal-Mc David-Marner
Marchand-Bergeron-Point
Huberdeau-O'Reilly-Scheifele
Couturier

Nurse-Makar
Theodore-Pietrangelo
Reilly-Hamilton
Doughty or Chabot

Price
Hart
Kuemper

 

[bobholly39]

While I have Marner on my roster, I can easily see him left off just due to the nature of what he brings and the make-up of the team. Canada has lots of puck-dominant playmakers, especially at center, so playmaking wingers don't always mesh. I could see him with Point, Couturier or MacKinnon, depending on who ends up at center. I don't think he'd mesh with McDavid or Crosby very well. I think his size and underwhelming playoffs could be a factor as well.

If you were to rank the "best" Canadian forwards 1 to 12 - Marner makes the list hands down, and maybe as high as the first half.

Mack/McDavid/Crosby and probably Marchand are the only shoe-ins above him. He's a consistent 95+ point guy based on last 3 year, better offense than just about anyone else. You can certainly rationalize ranking others ahead of him, I'm not saying he has to be #5 per se, but he's still a very good player based on production and has an argument for as high as 5th.

But - I agree with you. Someone who 'deserves' to be there is going to be left off - and I could see it end up being Marner. He is a good pk'er though right? I think that versatility can help him secure his spot.

I'm really curious if Team Canada tries to bring in veterans. Like Toews. Or Tavares. Who knows - in the past they've been extremely conservative in their selection of older guys over younger ones - if they do, it's a lot less room for someone like Marner

 

[bobholly39]

Mackinnon-Crosby-Stone
Barzal-Mc David-Marner
Marchand-Bergeron-Point
Huberdeau-O'Reilly-Scheifele
Couturier

Nurse-Makar
Theodore-Pietrangelo
Reilly-Hamilton
Doughty or Chabot

Price
Hart
Kuemper

Not a bad roster. In my opinion there are very few 100% locks for roster, and they are:

McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, Makar + Price. I don't see any rationalization whatsoever where those 5 aren't on the roster (minus injuries of course, but that doesn't really count).

I'd add all of Bergeron, Marchand, Point + Pietro in the "99.9%" likely tier. I could see a tiny scenario where they don't make it, but super unlikely.

I think everyone else is up for grabs. Mostly because majority of rest are similar tier, and I could see one or two left off to the benefit of the others, even a few surprises.
I do think Doughty makes it, unless he has a horrible season in-progress. Team Canada always like their veterans. I see him getting top minutes too

 

[Zybalto]

How did O'Reilly not have a good year? Near point per game, best goal pace of his career, excellent underlying numbers as usual, another top 5 Selke finish...

Offensively he was really good but he really slipped (comparable to previous years) on the D, especially the penalty kill. I didnt think he deserved any Selke votes last year.

I actually still have him on the team as think as I'm willing to chalk it up to the bizarre covid year but just to give you an example of his penalty kill numbers:

44 forwards played more than 100+ minutes on the PK last year. Out of those 44 forwards, here is how he ranked while on the ice:

Shots against/60:
O'Reilly: 70.64 (44th out of 44)

Scoring chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 58.52 (42nd out of 44)

High Danger chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 28.47 (44th out of 44)

Expected goals against/60:
O'Reilly: 9.71 (44th out of 44)

Goals Against/60:
O'Reilly: 13.18 (44th out of 44)

His REL numbers were just as bad and he wasnt just last in some of those categories by a little bit but by an absolute mile in some cases. Gonna wipe the slate clean though and see how he starts the year as it's a shortened season smallish sample anyways.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Offensively he was really good but he really slipped (comparable to previous years) on the D, especially the penalty kill. I didnt think he deserved any Selke votes last year.

I actually still have him on the team as think as I'm willing to chalk it up to the bizarre covid year but just to give you an example of his penalty kill numbers:

44 forwards played more than 100+ minutes on the PK last year. Out of those 44 forwards, here is how he ranked while on the ice:

Shots against/60:
O'Reilly: 70.64 (44th out of 44)

Scoring chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 58.52 (42nd out of 44)

High Danger chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 28.47 (44th out of 44)

Expected goals against/60:
O'Reilly: 9.71 (44th out of 44)

Goals Against/60:
O'Reilly: 13.18 (44th out of 44)

His REL numbers were just as bad and he wasnt just last in some of those categories by a little bit but by an absolute mile in some cases. Gonna wipe the slate clean though and see how he starts the year as it's a shortened season smallish sample anyways.

I think ROR gets picked to avoid a Martin St. Louis/Yzerman repeat with Armstrong. I think he deserves it anyway (much more than other players on that roster such as parayko or binnington) and I have him on my team, but barring a catastrophe he will be there. Also worth noting he and McDavid played well together at the Denmark World Championships

 

[Zybalto]

I think ROR gets picked to avoid a Martin St. Louis/Yzerman repeat with Armstrong. I think he deserves it anyway (much more than other players on that roster such as parayko or binnington) and I have him on my team, but barring a catastrophe he will be there. Also worth noting he and McDavid played well together at the Denmark World Championships

Yea, chemistry is certainly going to play a part as well in all this and I think faceoff% is another big reason I'd want O'Reilly on my team. Hid 58.9 was 4th in the league last year.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

While I have Marner on my roster, I can easily see him left off just due to the nature of what he brings and the make-up of the team. Canada has lots of puck-dominant playmakers, especially at center, so playmaking wingers don't always mesh. I could see him with Point, Couturier or MacKinnon, depending on who ends up at center. I don't think he'd mesh with McDavid or Crosby very well. I think his size and underwhelming playoffs could be a factor as well.

I don't think the relative lack of playoff success is going to ding him. Honestly, I don't see how he can be left off unless the go all in on bringing a ton of centers some of which they can convert to wing. Anyway, don't really have a dog in this fight other than I like Marner as a player.

 

[Mathieukferland]

I don't think the relative lack of playoff success is going to ding him. Honestly, I don't see how he can be left off unless the go all in on bringing a ton of centers some of which they can convert to wing. Anyway, don't really have a dog in this fight other than I like Marner as a player.

If you don’t live in Canada it would be hard to understand the media landscape and mindset of those who live in southern Ontario in regards to their team and their players, if Marner played in Nashville he would be a lock

 

[newfy]

I don't think the relative lack of playoff success is going to ding him. Honestly, I don't see how he can be left off unless the go all in on bringing a ton of centers some of which they can convert to wing. Anyway, don't really have a dog in this fight other than I like Marner as a player.

I could see it going either way.

I would say guys going 100% ahead of him are McDavid, Mackinnon, Crosby, Bergeron, Marchand and Brayden Point. So right there you have 6 guys alone, 3 of which minimum are wingers. After that, Marner is absolutely not a lock over a guy like Huberdeau who just had a pretty good, although short playoff performance and extremely comparable offense. Mark Stone who brings the defensive side with over point per game offense. Then youre probably looking at at least a defensive type center like Courturier or O'Rielly over him.

So those 6 guys I mentioned, plus Stone and a defensive center I would say are making it over him. That leaves 4 forward spots. His lack of playoff success in his career is going to be a factor whether you agree with it or not. Its his only high pressure moments and he has been bad the last 3 playoffs. He can be left off pretty easily in favour of some of the guys left. Flip a coin with Huberdeau, Barzal (depending on his start and if they want his wheels with McDavid or Mackinnon), or Schiefele (bigger/similar offense and more of a shooter etc.). I could even see depending on a good start bringing Stamkos as a triggerman on the power play over Marner.

All of these guys have an argument to be there over Marner even without really knocking him for his playoff performance. Its going to depend on a few of their starts to the season but Marner could be left off and it not be a big deal and they wont miss what he brings. Also remember this is a team that brings guys like Brendan Morrow, Kunitz and Patrick Sharp the last couple Olympics. Marner isnt sooo good that hes a lock as a pure winger who has been bad when the pressure is on is what I'm getting at

Also consider theyre absolutely going to give a little more credit to some guys who can play center in case theres injuries to give them flexibility. A guy like Barzal or Scheifele have that as a notch in their favour.

 

[Regal]

Offensively he was really good but he really slipped (comparable to previous years) on the D, especially the penalty kill. I didnt think he deserved any Selke votes last year.

I actually still have him on the team as think as I'm willing to chalk it up to the bizarre covid year but just to give you an example of his penalty kill numbers:

44 forwards played more than 100+ minutes on the PK last year. Out of those 44 forwards, here is how he ranked while on the ice:

Shots against/60:
O'Reilly: 70.64 (44th out of 44)

Scoring chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 58.52 (42nd out of 44)

High Danger chances against/60:
O'Reilly: 28.47 (44th out of 44)

Expected goals against/60:
O'Reilly: 9.71 (44th out of 44)

Goals Against/60:
O'Reilly: 13.18 (44th out of 44)

His REL numbers were just as bad and he wasnt just last in some of those categories by a little bit but by an absolute mile in some cases. Gonna wipe the slate clean though and see how he starts the year as it's a shortened season smallish sample anyways.

PK is generally such a small sample I could see variance having a large effect here. Defensively, his numbers were down from previous years, particularly xGA, but were still strong. He probably didn't deserve Selke votes, but he was still better defensively than half the roster. I'd still say he was better than anyone who'd replace him, so I don't see why his spot would be in jeopardy really.

 

[TJHKY]

Marchand, Crosby, MacKinnon should be in one line. They are all from Nova Scotia.

 

[SOLR]

How is McDavid affected by Marner and Tavares? McDavid's going to be centering the top line, probably with someone like Point on RW and either a converted center (Scheifele/Stamkos) on his left or someone like Huberdeau.

Tavares isn't good enough to be building a line around "chemistry" for him. At best, he'll be the 13th or 14th forward. He's not centering any line ahead of the elite centers Canada has available to them, and he's not starting on LW ahead of more natural LWers like Huberdeau and Marchand, nor better centers who have to be moved to wing because of how stacked Canada is down the middle.

I just can't get behind any idea that Marchand - Crosby - Bergeron shouldn't be literally the one line that's a lock. And whether it's considered the "3rd" line on the depth chart doesn't matter one bit. They'll get as much ice time as the other 2 lines anyway. Canada's not going to overplay their top two lines like a regular NHL team does.

The same argument that applies to Marchand - Crosby - Bergeron applies to other players with pre-established chemistry. Turns out, only Tavares-Marner are a pre-established option, unless I'm forgetting something.

Point is our 2nd best center right now. I don't think McDavid and Point are a good pair, I don't think Point should be anywhere but center. I don't think Tavares is a 13-14th forward either, he's one of the vets that can stabilize some young ones, and he's a shooter that can move. McDavid needs a shooter, so that's either Marchand, Tavares, Stamkos or you give a RW shooter to McDavid, Barzal, Seguin, and then a fast grinder (????). McDavid is so hard to match. Again, I think we need to separate Mackinnon from McDavid.

And yes I think Tavares is higher in the hierarchy vs. Huberdeau at LW. Tavares played wing for team Canada many times.

So I guess you can go (forget line 1 to 4, you have 4 1st line)
Mackinnon - ROR - Barzal
Tavares - Point - Marner
Huberdeau McDavid Seguin
Marchand Crosby Bergeron

 

[Zybalto]

PK is generally such a small sample I could see variance having a large effect here. Defensively, his numbers were down from previous years, particularly xGA, but were still strong. He probably didn't deserve Selke votes, but he was still better defensively than half the roster. I'd still say he was better than anyone who'd replace him, so I don't see why his spot would be in jeopardy really.

Oh, he was still one of the better players on the team but the team itself fell off a defensive cliff in many ways, probably due to the loss of key personnel (the year before, 5v5 they gave up the fewest shots in the league and were a consensus top ten defensive team, while last year it's being charitable to call them average). As with players like Doughty, It's gonna be interesting to see if the selection committee looks past team struggles to grab the right players or if they are in the "we want only winners" mindset and exclude guys whose team havnt made (or struggled in) the playoffs or guys that arnt showing up on awards lists.

 

[Zybalto]

PK is generally such a small sample I could see variance having a large effect here. Defensively, his numbers were down from previous years, particularly xGA, but were still strong. He probably didn't deserve Selke votes, but he was still better defensively than half the roster. I'd still say he was better than anyone who'd replace him, so I don't see why his spot would be in jeopardy really.

Actually, it helps O'Reilly quite a bit to look back at total combined playoff xGF% the last two years and you can see he's up with the big boys:

Score adjusted playoff 5v5 xGF%/60 the last two years for the more popular team Canada forward candidates:

1. Marner 66.29
2. McDavid 64.12
3. O'Reilly 61.74
4: Bergeron: 59.48
5. Tavares: 59.40
6. Point: 58.44
7. Crosby: 57.79
8. Marchand: 57.19
9. MacKinnon: 57.13
10. Stamkos: 56.77
11. Stone: 56.62
12. Barzal: 54.78
13. Couturier: 53.10
14. Huberdeau: 52.59
15. Scheifele 45.05

Those are pretty insane elite xGF% numbers.

Looking at 5v5 xGF%/60 REL to try and squeeze out team bias (to boost O'Reilly even further and try to help out Scheifele here heh):

1. O'Reilly: +23.20
2. Marner: +14.57
3. Couturier: +11.82
4: Bergeron: +8.80
5. Barzal: +8.38
6. Tavares: +7.83
7. McDavid: +6.87
8. Point: +6.40
9. Scheifele: +6.12
10. Marchand: +5.98
11. Crosby: +5.93
12. Stamkos: +5.18
13. Huberdeau: +4.96
14. MacKinnon: +4.53
15. Stone: -1.67

Wow, I feel bad for downplaying O'Reilly a bit now hehe. Scheifele certainly looks a bit better as playing on that run and gun team built on finishing and goaltending isnt gonna give you very good run of play numbers (or consistent results it seems). Everyone is in agreement Stone has had some rough playoff outings but I'm not gonna hold it against him too hard as its too small a sample to make massive judgements against the guy.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The same argument that applies to Marchand - Crosby - Bergeron applies to other players with pre-established chemistry. Turns out, only Tavares-Marner are a pre-established option, unless I'm forgetting something.

You're missing the part about the difference being Crosby has been an integral part of Team Canada's success, so having guys with chemistry with him makes sense since he's actually going to play a lot.

Tavares is a bit player. You don't make room on the team for him and leave at home better players just because him and Marner played together one season. That's not how these teams work.

Point is our 2nd best center right now. I don't think McDavid and Point are a good pair, I don't think Point should be anywhere but center. I don't think Tavares is a 13-14th forward either, he's one of the vets that can stabilize some young ones, and he's a shooter that can move. McDavid needs a shooter, so that's either Marchand, Tavares, Stamkos or you give a RW shooter to McDavid, Barzal, Seguin, and then a fast grinder (????). McDavid is so hard to match. Again, I think we need to separate Mackinnon from McDavid.

I'm willing to bet you that Point will play on the wing. McDavid, MacKinnon, and Crosby are going to be the top 3 centers and they're not going to waste Point as the 4C in a checking role. He'll be on the wing with either McDavid or MacKinnon.

As far as Tavares being a "shooter than can move", are we talking about the same guy? He's a slow skater. I don't know why you think he's got wheels.

And yes I think Tavares is higher in the hierarchy vs. Huberdeau at LW. Tavares played wing for team Canada many times.

So I guess you can go (forget line 1 to 4, you have 4 1st line)
Mackinnon - ROR - Barzal
Tavares - Point - Marner
Huberdeau McDavid Seguin
Marchand Crosby Bergeron

Is this 2014? Tavares is not better than Huberdeau at this point. Tavares will not be playing on this team's second line. To think he's higher than Huberdeau on the team's hierarchy is based on nothing but turning back the clock. That's like saying Jonathan Toews is ahead of MacKinnon in the hierarchy because he's played for TC at the Olympics before and MacKinnon hasn't.

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't think the relative lack of playoff success is going to ding him. Honestly, I don't see how he can be left off unless the go all in on bringing a ton of centers some of which they can convert to wing. Anyway, don't really have a dog in this fight other than I like Marner as a player.

As a wise poster (not me) once said ...

Marner has 7 minor penalties in his playoff career and 6 are puck over the glass so...

Leave his ass home.

 

[Zybalto]

As a wise poster (not me) once said ...

Marner has 7 minor penalties in his playoff career and 6 are puck over the glass so...

Leave his ass home.

Marner has only 12 minutes in career penalties so I had to check that out and yea, 5 of the 6 penalties Marner has ever taken the last 5 years have been over the glass penalties (one of the dumbest rules in hockey to most people).

It should be noted that all 6 penalties Marner has ever taken have been killed off and the Leafs have gone 3-3 in those games. (which makes it seem kind of trivial no?)

His career penalties taken in the playoffs/game is also below average in the league (comparables being Rantanen, Pastrnak, Kuznetsov and Nylander over the last 3 years).

There are players who cost their teams with penalties in the playoffs, Marner just isnt one of them.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

As a wise poster (not me) once said ...

Marner has 7 minor penalties in his playoff career and 6 are puck over the glass so...

Leave his ass home.

I think "playoff performer" matters less when you're surrounded by a lot more talent that can pick up the slack when you struggle than it does when you're your team's top player and the chances of your team rest almost solely on your shoulders.