Tanking in the NBA

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Tanking is the problem in NBA.
Maybe warning or 500 thousand USD fines could be an appropriate solution
But if warning and fines would not help then NBA have to think of some other penalty.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I'm a Suns fan and while its hard to say they are outright tanking this year (they certainly did last year) its hard to imagine that teams in a similar situation would ever acquire talent otherwise. They can't compete for free agents and good players don't get traded for bad players.

Next year's lottery changes should stop situations like last season where the Suns and Lakers were openly tanking down the stretch for 2nd last, but barring extraordinary luck teams like Phoenix and Memphis will be doomed to mediocrity forever.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Get rid of the draft, only way to end tanking.

Not all good prospects will go to great teams, because on great teams they can’t get playing time. It will balance itself out.

 

[Gecklund]

Get rid of the draft, only way to end tanking.

Not all good prospects will go to great teams, because on great teams they can’t get playing time. It will balance itself out.

Then teams like the Lakers will be 15 players deep and look something like Paul-Butler-Lebron-Durant-Cousins with Giannis and Kyrie coming off the bench.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Then teams like the Lakers will be 15 players deep and look something like Paul-Butler-Lebron-Durant-Cousins with Giannis and Kyrie coming off the bench.

False, for reason stated above. Cap will still be in place and therefore Lakers can’t pay everybody.

And you are ignoring the fact that NBA stars have HUGE egos, they aren’t going to like coming off the bench.

 

[Gecklund]

False, for reason stated above. Cap will still be in place and therefore Lakers can’t pay everybody.

Okay then their lineup will look more like every single recent 1st overall.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Okay then their lineup will look more like every single recent 1st overall.

Again, false. Those players can sign for highest bidder and Lakers cannot pay everybody.

Keep in mind these players won’t have HUGE endorsement deals so they can’t afford to take pay cuts like Kevin Durant.

 

[Gecklund]

Again, false. Those players can sign for highest bidder and Lakers cannot pay everybody.

Keep in mind these players won’t have HUGE endorsement deals so they can’t afford to take pay cuts like Kevin Durant.

You're really underestimating the power of a championship. Go to a super team, get it early and then move somewhere else.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

You're really underestimating the power of a championship. Go to a super team, get it early and then move somewhere else.

Let us assume the worst case scenario. You think there will be just ONE super team? So what is the difference from now?

 

[Gecklund]

Let us assume the worst case scenario. You think there will be just ONE super team? So what is the difference from now?

Just curious but do you watch European Soccer at all? Look at Spain where there is VERY little chance that teams beat Barca or Real Madrid because they are amazing. Look at France, no one is beating PSG. Teams go on 20 to like 50 game win streaks and it's just not as fun as a league where any team could win at any point. In the NBA, you have the best teams but the worst teams can still beat them on any night. That's the difference. You lose that ability.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Just curious but do you watch European Soccer at all? Look at Spain where there is VERY little chance that teams beat Barca or Real Madrid because they are amazing. Look at France, no one is beating PSG. Teams go on 20 to like 50 game win streaks and it's just not as fun as a league where any team could win at any point. In the NBA, you have the best teams but the worst teams can still beat them on any night. That's the difference. You lose that ability.

By this logic Warriors should go 82-0. They don’t. NBA has 82 games. Its still NBA so all players in it will still meet certain quality.

 

[Gecklund]

By this logic Warriors should go 82-0. They don’t. NBA has 82 games. Its still NBA so all players in it will still meet certain quality.

Again no. By this logic, there are players like Booker on Phoenix. Gordon on Orlando. Lavine and Markanen on Chicago. Kemba on Charlotte. This gives the trash teams a chance to win.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Again no. By this logic, there are players like Booker on Phoenix. Gordon on Orlando. Lavine and Markanen on Chicago. Kemba on Charlotte. This gives the trash teams a chance to win.

None of them win though. And its false to presume these smaller market teams can’t land prospects. prospects need game time to land endorsements.

 

[Gecklund]

None of them win though.

No but I'd rather watch a league where teams have a way to get better than a league where teams that are good just keep getting better.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

No but I'd rather watch a league where teams have a way to get better than a league where teams that are good just keep getting better.

But again, how is it any different now?

 

[Gecklund]

But again, how is it any different now?

Because teams have the opportunity to get better. Yeah Warriors signed Durant but the main part of their core are players they drafted in Curry, Klay, and Green. It adds the ability for teams like Memphis, Phoenix, and other teams that suck to get top end talent.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Because teams have the opportunity to get better. Yeah Warriors signed Durant but the main part of their core are players they drafted in Curry, Klay, and Green. It adds the ability for teams like Memphis, Phoenix, and other teams that suck to get top end talent.

On the other hand, you have teams like Magic that never gets better.

 

[Gecklund]

On the other hand, you have teams like Magic that never gets better.

But you also have teams like the Timberwolves who drafted KAT and were able to trade a few of their extra players that they drafted for Butler and Wiggins and now are a playoff team.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I'm a Suns fan and while its hard to say they are outright tanking this year (they certainly did last year) its hard to imagine that teams in a similar situation would ever acquire talent otherwise. They can't compete for free agents and good players don't get traded for bad players.

Next year's lottery changes should stop situations like last season where the Suns and Lakers were openly tanking down the stretch for 2nd last, but barring extraordinary luck teams like Phoenix and Memphis will be doomed to mediocrity forever.

I'm curious to see how next year's changes effect teams behavior. I'm a bit skeptical personally. I fear it just changes a race to the bottom to a race to the bottom 3 and teams will still be incentivized to lose.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I'm curious to see how next year's changes effect teams behavior. I'm a bit skeptical personally. I fear it just changes a race to the bottom to a race to the bottom 3 and teams will still be incentivized to lose.

The percentage changes are massive though too don't forget

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

The percentage changes are massive though too don't forget

Current (per wikipedia)

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Next year

1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
3. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
4. 125 combinations, 12.5% chance
5. 105 combinations, 10.5% chance
6. 90 combinations, 9.0% chance
7. 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
8. 60 combinations, 6.0% chance
9. 45 combinations, 4.5% chance
10. 30 combinations, 3.0% chance
11. 20 combinations, 2.0% chance
12. 15 combinations, 1.5% chance
13. 10 combinations, 1.0% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

My fear is that while it lessens the reward for tanking, it doesn't really do anything to discourage it and nothing really changes.


Side note: it will be interesting to see what happens the first time a low (say 10-14) team does win and how everyone reacts to that. It's going to happen at some point. Teams 10-14 will have a collective 8% chance of winning which means that it should happen every 12 years or so.

 

[Voight]

Thats going to screw the Cavs if LBJ leaves.

 

[Vamos Rafa]

But you also have teams like the Timberwolves who drafted KAT and were able to trade a few of their extra players that they drafted for Butler and Wiggins and now are a playoff team.

The T-Wolves are the worst example for tanking. They had missed the playoffs for 13 years before this year. They had numerous lottery picks during that time. The Magic could very well be Twolving right now.