Somehow, both Dotchin and Sustr remained above Koekkoek on the depth chart though. Both of them being moved to the outside looking in only tells just how far "outside" Koekkoek was/is. To me, he seems like a throw-in to some deal with bigger names as the focal point (a Johnson/Miller deal, maybe).
I'm not sure we go out of our way to move Coburn. We don't really need cap space this year. I think it's more likely we use him as a #6 (or even #7) this year, then let both him and Girardi walk, and then hand that money (+) over to Kucherov and Point.
I just don't see a huge turnover in D coming this year. We might add one guy, if we trade Johnson and/or Miller, but then I think we're going to hope the coaching change will have a positive impact.
But, if there's no big turnover, that still means Koekkoek's path is effectively blocked. We'd have to move several defensemen for him to squeeze into the 6 slot. Or he'd have to come to camp greatly improved. I don't know that we're gonna show that much faith in him. Again, it feels a bit like the Connolly situation, where it's just time to get what we can for him and hopefully he'll succeed elsewhere.
As far as trading Coburn is concerned my motivation isn’t the cap so much as it is a) not wanting him in our starting lineup next season, and b) wanting to open a spot to start developing one of our prospects so that the following season we aren’t forced to play a bunch of inexperienced young guys at once. Coburn had a really bad season before redeeming himself in the playoffs while Girardi had a pretty good season before a very rough postseason; next season they’ll both be a year older and I don’t want us betting our Cup chances on them not falling off a cliff. In addition they’ll both be gone next summer and our potential replacements within the organization have little to no NHL experience.
In a perfect world what I’d like us to do is to trade one of Coburn or Girardi (most likely Coburn since Girardi has a full NTC), bring in an experienced but reasonably young defenseman who can carry the bottom pairing next season before stepping up to our top four the following year, and let whichever of Coburn or Girardi remains rotate with one of our prospects in the 6D spot. That way we can get one of our young guys some experience while at the same time avoiding a Sustr-Carle situation if the prospect struggles while the veteran falls off - thanks to the new acquisition we’d only need one of the two to play well to have a solid defense for the playoffs and even if both struggled we’d at least have somebody on the pairing who can carry him. The following season the new acquisition joins Hedman, Sergachev, and possibly a resigned Stralman in our top four and the prospect plays on our bottom pairing without a safety net.
If we don’t bring somebody in then IMO we still need an upgrade over having both Coburn and Girardi in the lineup and we still need to get one of the young guys some playing time. Sustr won’t be back and we’ve already seen what we have in Dotchin, so what makes the most sense to me would be to trade Dotchin, let Koekkoek start the season on the bottom pairing opposite Girardi, and keep Coburn around as the 7D since he’s better than Dotchin and can play either side and on the penalty kill. But the problem is we can’t trust Cooper not to start Coburn over Koekkoek, so to force his hand we’d have to trade Coburn and keep Dotchin as the 7D (unless we can sign a UFA to a cheap one-year deal for that purpose.) If Koekkoek doesn’t cut it then we give Cernak or Masin a shot, but it makes sense to give Koekkoek a chance first before rushing one of those guys up.
What I don’t like about sticking with the status quo is a) it didn’t work for us, b) I don’t trust either Coburn or Girardi to play well all year, much less both of them, and c) the following season if they both leave we’ll be stuck trying to fill a bunch of holes with young guys that aren’t ready. We need some fresh blood on our blue line whether it comes from outside the organization, from within, or both.
I do agree that if we’re going to trade Koekkoek I would prefer to see him as part of a package in a bigger deal rather than simply trading him alone for a mediocre pick. Maybe we trade TJ or JT for a defenseman and throw in Koekkoek as a replacement in exchange for a replacement forward. Something like that would be fine with me because it would mean we wouldn’t have a spot for him on our roster anyway; I just don’t see the point of us trading him for a mid round pick when we would gladly trade such a pick for a reclamation project with his upside.