Confirmed Trade: [STL/BUF] Ryan O'Reilly for 2019 1st, 2021 2nd, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, and Tage Thompson

[GellMann]

Haven't read a page of this thread but I'm still reeling from this trade. Blues got a steal. ROR is usage tweaks from being a 70 point Selke winner. He's more subtly incredible than even you guys think he is.

 

[DRW204]

Compare it to Buffalo. I'm not saying we had a good 3rd line, but it was capable in terms of scoring. Our problem was our 2nd line couldn't live up to what it needed to be. We had 4ish top 6 players for the bulk of the season. That's one of the reasons there was a huge gap in 5v5 scoring between the teams. That won't affect ROR's change in production in any way. That was the context.

you don't expect his even-strength production (raw totals or rate) to improve whilst playing with better forwards, on a deeper team that scores more? I can see his even-strength production improving and PP production taking a hit if he's on PP2 (no idea what STL's PP lines will look like)

 

[dasaybz]

Haven't read a page of this thread but I'm still reeling from this trade. Blues got a steal. ROR is usage tweaks from being a 70 point Selke winner. He's more subtly incredible than even you guys think he is.

Incredible is definitely not a word I would use to describe ROR.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Incredible is definitely not a word I would use to describe ROR.

That's funny. "Disgruntled Sabres fan" could not be more obvious.

 

[Yatzhee]

Pretty dumb trade by us. Always fun to tell your fellow fans this is a bad idea and the return will not be good enough, have it happen, and then have the same sheep fans bleat about how RoR was a cancer and the culture change is key, despite the fact that O’Reilly is one of the hardest workers in the league, unlike other star players we have...

Also comforting to see every Blues fan be totally fine with what was traded out, not a single piece that hurt.

ya for Hughes I guess.

While I agree completely the Blues got the quality end of the deal I don't subscribe to the Sabres being in on Hughes in the significant way they had the chance with Dahlin.
If you take a look at what Botterill has done in 2 drafts combined with what already existed in the up and coming prospect system, the Sabres are very heavy Swedish. Berglund was most certainly a good choice as a veteran to help those kids along, unless Blues fans tell me other wise, and I haven't seen many if any at all, say Berglund was a bad character guy or locker room distraction. Maybe some can chime in on this aspect.

As for the draft picks, I don't see the Blues landing in the top 10 in 2019, do you? I suspect that pick will fall somewhere in the 22 to 31 range. Not great, but, a 1st is a 1st and unless Botterill trades it away, should help keep the system stocked with potential. The 2nd is the same to a much lesser extent I suspect.

Sobtoka was a cap dump I assume, but given the Sabres lack of true LW depth, will be utilized accordingly. Another veteran, unless he is moved in a future deal, can't say what is going to happen here honestly. We shall see as time progresses.

Tage Thompson, apparently was targeted by Botterill according to reports. Some Blues fans I have spoken with say he wasn't ready for the NHL yet, a bit rushed in. Others say he may lack the pace to be a top 6 forward. But not one of them said he wouldn't be an NHL'er. If it's a bottom 6 role, it is what it is. I'll let Blues fans chime in here, since they've actually watched him come up and perform.

It remains to be seen how this will turn out for both clubs. St. Louis definitely got a fantastic piece, Buffalo may have done it for culture change, locker room change and to free up that 7.5 million for future contracts like Mittelstadt and so on. The only real clear cut observation I will make is St. Louis will be a force in the Western Conference, and rightfully so. Their talent is at that 24 to 30 range for the win here and now mode. Buffalo needs to climb out of the rebuild mode, and it has become abundantly clear, that starts with their team culture, then their talent. Buffalo has the young talent, it needs to start winning.

 

[bleedblue1223]

you don't expect his even-strength production (raw totals or rate) to improve whilst playing with better forwards, on a deeper team that scores more? I can see his even-strength production improving and PP production taking a hit if he's on PP2 (no idea what STL's PP lines will look like)

It just depends. Team scoring isn't a factor. Just because our 3rd line will score way more, doesn't mean ROR is involved in any of those goals. He's not benefiting from those goals. We won't know how his 5v5 production will be. We won't know if he'll fit with Tarasenko, we don't know how he'll be used. It's all a wildcard.

Schenn last year was a PP specialist, but he found magic with Schwartz and he was dominate during 5v5. My point is, we have no idea how ROR will do, but overall team scoring is not an indicative factor for projecting his 5v5 scoring.

 

[Oberyn]

I don't think the deal was as lopsided as some may suggest. As a Blues fan, I love it, but that's because we upgraded in a position we've been historically weak at and gave up pieces that were expendable. That shouldn't mean that those pieces are worthless, the Sabres bolstered their depth and have some nice pieces for the future. Berglund and Sobotka ran their course in St. Louis, but both will be useful additions to the Sabres. I do like Thompson and thought he looked quite serviceable in the NHL although there were some issues with consistency. A 1st is a 1st, and having an extra 2nd in the future never hurts.

Looking back on this deal, I think both teams came out with what they wanted.

 

[sabrebuild]

While I agree completely the Blues got the quality end of the deal I don't subscribe to the Sabres being in on Hughes in the significant way they had the chance with Dahlin.
If you take a look at what Botterill has done in 2 drafts combined with what already existed in the up and coming prospect system, the Sabres are very heavy Swedish. Berglund was most certainly a good choice as a veteran to help those kids along, unless Blues fans tell me other wise, and I haven't seen many if any at all, say Berglund was a bad character guy or locker room distraction. Maybe some can chime in on this aspect.

As for the draft picks, I don't see the Blues landing in the top 10 in 2019, do you? I suspect that pick will fall somewhere in the 22 to 31 range. Not great, but, a 1st is a 1st and unless Botterill trades it away, should help keep the system stocked with potential. The 2nd is the same to a much lesser extent I suspect.

Sobtoka was a cap dump I assume, but given the Sabres lack of true LW depth, will be utilized accordingly. Another veteran, unless he is moved in a future deal, can't say what is going to happen here honestly. We shall see as time progresses.

Tage Thompson, apparently was targeted by Botterill according to reports. Some Blues fans I have spoken with say he wasn't ready for the NHL yet, a bit rushed in. Others say he may lack the pace to be a top 6 forward. But not one of them said he wouldn't be an NHL'er. If it's a bottom 6 role, it is what it is. I'll let Blues fans chime in here, since they've actually watched him come up and perform.

It remains to be seen how this will turn out for both clubs. St. Louis definitely got a fantastic piece, Buffalo may have done it for culture change, locker room change and to free up that 7.5 million for future contracts like Mittelstadt and so on. The only real clear cut observation I will make is St. Louis will be a force in the Western Conference, and rightfully so. Their talent is at that 24 to 30 range for the win here and now mode. Buffalo needs to climb out of the rebuild mode, and it has become abundantly clear, that starts with their team culture, then their talent. Buffalo has the young talent, it needs to start winning.

Starting to win is difficult if you look at a team that finished dead last and shipped out O’Reilly and Kane, and refills those spots with sheary, sobotka and Berglund, who I’m sure is a good guy. But on talent that is a downgrade. The rookies might be great coming in, but even then you are still a bottom 5 team, with a similar shot at Hughes.

Honestly the best case scenario is going to infuriate me, Dahlin and Mitts are great right away, Sheary is a real contributor and a couple of the euros coming over turn out great and the team comes up just short of the playoffs.

Imaging that scenario with another 60 point two way forward and I want to punch a wall.

Edit: long term I think they have lots of ammo, but we have gone full Oilers, before McDavid.

 

[sabrebuild]

It just depends. Team scoring isn't a factor. Just because our 3rd line will score way more, doesn't mean ROR is involved in any of those goals. He's not benefiting from those goals. We won't know how his 5v5 production will be. We won't know if he'll fit with Tarasenko, we don't know how he'll be used. It's all a wildcard.

Schenn last year was a PP specialist, but he found magic with Schwartz and he was dominate during 5v5. My point is, we have no idea how ROR will do, but overall team scoring is not an indicative factor for projecting his 5v5 scoring.

What are the chances that RoR has to play regular minutes with someone like Scott Wilson on his wing?

 

[Colt55]

I know ROR had some very tough usage in Buffalo, but his 5 on 5 scoring was not close to 1C levels. I expect it to improve on a better team, but he wasn't going to get a 1C-level return.

we dont expect him to be the 1c thats what Brayden Schenn brought to the table.

 

[bleedblue1223]

What are the chances that RoR has to play regular minutes with someone like Scott Wilson on his wing?

He also spent significant time with Reinhart, Kane, and Okposo. While Okposo has regressed, he's still capable of decent points. ROR will most likely have better linemates, but lets not act like it's a guarantee that he'll produce more. Miller was guaranteed to be better with our defense and that was an epic disaster. We even did the same things with Stastny and Tarasenko, and they just didn't really work out. Tarasenko was pretty much as successful with Stastny as he was with Lehtera. You would've thought Tarasenko would've increased production being with a playmaking center as opposed to an anchor in Lehtera.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

Haven't read a page of this thread but I'm still reeling from this trade. Blues got a steal. ROR is usage tweaks from being a 70 point Selke winner. He's more subtly incredible than even you guys think he is.

This is hot

 

[rumrokh]

He also spent significant time with Reinhart, Kane, and Okposo. While Okposo has regressed, he's still capable of decent points. ROR will most likely have better linemates, but lets not act like it's a guarantee that he'll produce more. Miller was guaranteed to be better with our defense and that was an epic disaster. We even did the same things with Stastny and Tarasenko, and they just didn't really work out. Tarasenko was pretty much as successful with Stastny as he was with Lehtera. You would've thought Tarasenko would've increased production being with a playmaking center as opposed to an anchor in Lehtera.

For significant chunks of past seasons, I think Tarasenko looked his best and most comfortable playing with Fabbri and then for a while with Schwartz and Schenn. I think he plays better with more assertive offensive players. Stastny is good, but he's more assertive without the puck than he is with it. So I still do think there are some centers out there who could be "that guy" for Tarasenko. At least more so than we've seen so far.

I'm not sure how O'Reilly will fit into that theoretical relationship or any other on the Blues, so I'm definitely with you that there's no guarantee about O'Reilly's production. With great regularity, players' production doesn't change unless they stop or begin playing with elite linemates, they naturally decline due to injury or age, or they have a natural breakout. Tarasenko is a great player, but the only linemate we've seen him lift up is Lehtera. Schwartz is great, but he's playing with Schenn. It's possible O'Reilly produces more due to vastly different usage or a special spark with a linemate, but I think some Blues fans are letting their hopes control their expectations.

 

[bleedblue1223]

For significant chunks of past seasons, I think Tarasenko looked his best and most comfortable playing with Fabbri and then for a while with Schwartz and Schenn. I think he plays better with more assertive offensive players. Stastny is good, but he's more assertive without the puck than he is with it. So I still do think there are some centers out there who could be "that guy" for Tarasenko. At least more so than we've seen so far.

I'm not sure how O'Reilly will fit into that theoretical relationship or any other on the Blues, so I'm definitely with you that there's no guarantee about O'Reilly's production. With great regularity, players' production doesn't change unless they stop or begin playing with elite linemates, they naturally decline due to injury or age, or they have a natural breakout. Tarasenko is a great player, but the only linemate we've seen him lift up is Lehtera. Schwartz is great, but he's playing with Schenn. It's possible O'Reilly produces more due to vastly different usage or a special spark with a linemate, but I think some Blues fans are letting their hopes control their expectations.

I kept it simple just to show that it's no guarantee how players will transfer from 1 team to another.

I agree with how you describe Tarasenko though. He thrives with Schwartz/Fabbri type players. Basically a line with multiple drivers of offense.

 

[Dbrownss]

If anything the Blues defense being able to get the puck moving forward will help ROR

 

[sabrebuild]

He also spent significant time with Reinhart, Kane, and Okposo. While Okposo has regressed, he's still capable of decent points. ROR will most likely have better linemates, but lets not act like it's a guarantee that he'll produce more. Miller was guaranteed to be better with our defense and that was an epic disaster. We even did the same things with Stastny and Tarasenko, and they just didn't really work out. Tarasenko was pretty much as successful with Stastny as he was with Lehtera. You would've thought Tarasenko would've increased production being with a playmaking center as opposed to an anchor in Lehtera.

Trust me, Okposo was quite good two years ago when we first got him. Was on pace for a mid 50 point season before a concussion and then almost died from a bad reaction to meds. He was horrible to start last year, which is when the two played together. So he started the year with as best I recall, with

Pouliot RoR Okposo

And then it became

Wilson RoR Reinhart

And then for like 10ish games when Eichel was hurt I think Kane got some time before the deadline, forgive me I am too lazy to check the total time splits.

My point is that on a fairly regular basis, at 5v5 O’Reilly had at least one winger that wouldn’t make the blues team and probably half the time he wasn’t being supported with a defensive pairing that could make the blues.

I don’t watch you guys a ton, but I think it’s safe to say that Scandella and Ristolainen were the only two Sabre defenders that could be top 4 guys in St. Louis.

I’m sure they will need to figure out who fits with who, but O’Reilly is a stud.

 

[SundherDome]

Almost a week later and I still wanna kick Botts in his ovaries.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If anything the Blues defense being able to get the puck moving forward will help ROR

Yeah, this combined with a change in usage would be bigger factors IMO. It's all unknown, but more offensive zone time through successful exits in defensive zone and successful entries, as well as more offensive zone starts will play a bigger factor in an increase in production IMO.

He won't have the benefit that Schenn had of significantly increasing his minutes. Schenn's points/60 weren't all that different from his Flyers days, and were about the same as 15/16. It's reasonable that ROR could have a decrease in time and lose production.

 

[threeVo]

Evan Rodrigues played 48 games last year and almost had as many 5V5 points as ROR did. If he can somehow start scoring at ES, then this trade is lopsided. It seems like a win win for me right now, he wasn't getting it done. You can say bad team caused his stats to be depressed, but when comparing him to other players on the same team he provided less 5v5 scoring than superstars Pominville, Reinhart, and Okposo. I wanted to keep him, but hes starting to get overrated right now in order to shit on the Sabres for making a bad trade.

He has 70 points at 5v5 over the last 3 years. Bergeron and Toews have 90+, so with the minutes he was playing theres no excuse why his numbers are so bad in that area.

 

[Panthaz89]

Evan Rodrigues played 48 games last year and almost had as many 5V5 points as ROR did. If he can somehow start scoring at ES, then this trade is lopsided. It seems like a win win for me right now, he wasn't getting it done. You can say bad team caused his stats to be depressed, but when comparing him to other players on the same team he provided less 5v5 scoring than superstars Pominville, Reinhart, and Okposo. I wanted to keep him, but hes starting to get overrated right now in order to **** on the Sabres for making a bad trade.

He has 70 points at 5v5 over the last 3 years. Bergeron and Toews have 90+, so with the minutes he was playing theres no excuse why his numbers are so bad in that area.

Put him on Jack's wing and I'm sure the 5v5 production will increase substantially like the others did....Okposo was awful most of the time and probably caused the most GAs than any other player. Evan Rodriguez is probably the Sabre that's most likely to come out of nowhere next year and break out for a good season if given the right linemates.

 

[67Blues]

Also comforting to see every Blues fan be totally fine with what was traded out, not a single piece that hurt.

ya for Hughes I guess.

Losing Tage and the 1st hurt, and Berglund and Sobotka are good 3rd liners, but we needed space to bring in some of the kids who are blocked by those two. I think the attitude from Blues fans isn't that we took Bot to the woodshed, more so the attitude is acceptance of giving up assets for getting an asset we needed without crippling the team going forward.

To match the firepower of the Jets and Nashville in the Central, you have to roll 3 lines who can score. Our 3rd line last year was a black hole for scoring. We changed that this year with this trade and signings.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Starting to win is difficult if you look at a team that finished dead last and shipped out O’Reilly and Kane, and refills those spots with sheary, sobotka and Berglund, who I’m sure is a good guy. But on talent that is a downgrade. The rookies might be great coming in, but even then you are still a bottom 5 team, with a similar shot at Hughes.

Honestly the best case scenario is going to infuriate me, Dahlin and Mitts are great right away, Sheary is a real contributor and a couple of the euros coming over turn out great and the team comes up just short of the playoffs.

Imaging that scenario with another 60 point two way forward and I want to punch a wall.

Edit: long term I think they have lots of ammo, but we have gone full Oilers, before McDavid.

As of now St Louis wins the trade. Here's a more positive take from a Sabres POV.

It's pretty clear there was underlying reasons ROR had to be dealt. We don't know what those are but it's pretty obvious they felt he was working with the group for some reason. If we are better this season, it is possible it wouldn't have happened if ROR was still on the team, hockey is weird like that. So punching a wall might not be the best idea.

Seems they are banking on essentially swapping ROR for Mittlestadt offensively, while shifting his defensive minutes to Berglund and Sobotka and praying it works. Sheary will hopefully be able to take Kane's spot (Kane put up goals but did not work well with Eichel).

The part you're underestimating is going to be the depth of the team... replacing Pouliot, Nolan, Josefsen with real NHLers like Berglund and Sobotka, and being able to move down guys like Wilson or Girgensons out of the top 6 and into a proper role. On the blueline you can take out non-NHL caliber guys like Gorges and Falk and slot in Dahlin and a guy like Hunwick. In net we can't be any worse. From a positive perspective, the top 6 gets faster and will be able to be leveraged more offensively, and the bottom 6 is going to be much better in that it has NHL caliber players.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Also comforting to see every Blues fan be totally fine with what was traded out, not a single piece that hurt.

ya for Hughes I guess.

This is poor HF logic. We didn't lose anything that hurt in the Schenn trade, but Philly would do the same deal again. Just because the other side didn't give up anything that "hurt", it doesn't mean it wasn't a good return.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I'm not that into figuring out who your "sources" are. For now, I'll take the words of prominent writers and hockey insiders. I'm not saying you or your "source" is wrong, but there is a lot of evidence to the contrary as per your Berglund statement, that's it. Again, I'm not trying to be combative, but I outside of your "source" I haven't heard anyone make a definitive statement that Berglund wasn't being shopped.

 

[sabrebuild]

This is poor HF logic. We didn't lose anything that hurt in the Schenn trade, but Philly would do the same deal again. Just because the other side didn't give up anything that "hurt", it doesn't mean it wasn't a good return.

Take a breath fella, I simply meant you didn’t give up an asset that had a great chance being as good or better than O’Reilly.