Prospect Info: STI 2021 Preliminary Draft Rankings (4/21)

[StevenToddIves]

That’s as good as it gets. Is he really that good? Maybe he’s more like a Ginger Baker drum solo?

Edit: I’m not being silly. Peart is really really high praise.

My favorite drummer is actually Stewart Copeland, but he's more difficult to liken to a hockey player. I think it would have to be a goaltender with all the zaniness going on back there. I can see Dominik Hasek being the Stewart Copeland of hockey.

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

Give me Luke Hughes however possible

Ill even trade up idc

I dont see how he doesnt end up a top-pair defenseman in this league; everything Ive seen of them has him better than Quinn was at his age

 

[StevenToddIves]

This kid is ALWAYS in the right spot, and I am not sure you can say that about many prospects over the past decade.

But you CAN say it about Guenther, Eklund AND Beniers.

 

[TheDuke93]

We need to keep in mind that my top 7 is not everyone's top 7. First off, we need to keep in mind that goalies are not listed in my rankings and Jesper Wallstedt could easily be drafted in the top 7. It's also very possible that Lambos, Edvinsson and Lysell can all sneak in, and the team drafting #10 or #11 can luck into a Guenther or Eklund.

My rankings are always a bit off the consensus. Last year, I raised a few eyebrows at the top of my draft by ranking Seth Jarvis as the top RW at #8 overall, ahead of Holtz or Quinn. This year my preliminary rankings of Lucius at #8, Svozil at #9 and Pinelli at #11 are probably about as high as you'll find.

Lysell screams Giroux to me.

 

[TheDuke93]

But you CAN say it about Guenther, Eklund AND Beniers.

That was what stood out the most to me while watching Holtz highlights. Eklund was always in the soft spot ready for a shot or making himself available for an easy out let pass when he didn't have the puck which I feel usually is an uncommon trait among guys that demand the puck so much. Beniers out side of having more talent is just a perfect player IMO.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Give me Luke Hughes however possible

Ill even trade up idc

I dont see how he doesnt end up a top-pair defenseman in this league; everything Ive seen of them has him better than Quinn was at his age

Don't take this wrong, because I welcome all opinions and encourage everyone to submit their own -- but if you were to trade up for Hughes in this draft, it would be a very, very questionable decision in this year's draft.

Let's say the Devils wind up picking 6th overall and the first three picks are Power/Beniers/Guenther. You're saying you'd be willing to cough up a 2nd round pick + a young player like Kuokkanen or Sharangovich or a prospect like Bahl or Okhotyuk, which would be the likely cost to move up two spots to take Luke Hughes?

I'm questioning that logic, because there would still be a reasonable chance that Hughes would fall to #6. Even if Hughes was taken at #4 or #5, it would increase your odds of getting a future 1RD like Clarke or a future 1LW like Johnson or Eklund. The Devils are likely deeper in the prospect pool at LD than any NHL organization aside from Ottawa and have a LD Rookie of the Year candidate in Ty Smith. What the Devils do not have is a Brandt Clarke or Kent Johnson.

Don't get me wrong -- I love the top LDs -- both Hughes and Power. If the Devils were picking anywhere and wound up with one of those two, I'd be thrilled. But the cost to move up so early in the 1st round is huge, and considering the talent parity between the top 7 picks, it just seems to me like an unnecessary risk to take.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Lysell screams Giroux to me.

Not a lot in common aside from the high-end passing. Giroux is a better shooter, but Lysell is the far superior skater. Lysell's upside to me is more in the Ehlers territory.

 

[TheDuke93]

Not a lot in common aside from the high-end passing. Giroux is a better shooter, but Lysell is the far superior skater. Lysell's upside to me is more in the Ehlers territory.

See this is the difference in someone like yourself who actually see's everything about the player and not just a few things here and there and what I find so interesting. Lysell I see a smallish forward who plays with pace and a lot of aggressiveness to his game. He seems to be very decisive with the puck on his stick, immediately knowing if he's going to pass the puck or shoot. I notice a few common things and link players were as you are able to break down each individual trait they have. For instance going back a little bit watching Jakob Pelletier I can't help but notice his work around the goal mouth and even off to the side always getting pucks on net with redirects and tips just like Zack Parise did for more then a decade. Offensive upside between those two aside, I see a tenacious forechecker whos a pain in the ass to play against, undersized but has very good puck skills, has great speed and does their best down low despite being undersized.

 

[My3Sons]

My favorite drummer is actually Stewart Copeland, but he's more difficult to liken to a hockey player. I think it would have to be a goaltender with all the zaniness going on back there. I can see Dominik Hasek being the Stewart Copeland of hockey.

i think the player to musician comparison is a good one. I can make the connection and it adds some insight into your thoughts.

 

[Goptor]

I originally read the title as Arpil 21st and got confused that this was from the future.

 

[Guttersniped]

Read my introduction again -- I am far from lukewarm on Guenther. The kid is outstanding. Were the Devils to draft him, he would immediately become their #1 prospect. He blends incredible intelligence and compete with a tool box filled with near-elite abilities. Dylan Guenther is as can't miss for your first line as anyone in this draft -- while Johnson has more pure upside, he comes with more risk, and while Eklund comes with more intangibles, he lacks the pure scoring skills of Guenther. We're talking a dual-threat offensive force who is a regular on your 1PP and 1PK and can excel at either wing in virtually any situation.

I'm not kidding when I say it's razor thin between my top 7. If a team winning the lottery took Guenther #1 overall, I'd be on these boards lauding it as an outstanding pick.

Yeah, you just outlined the reason why I would take Guenther if we took a forward first and it’s not really close. (Note: It’s early and I’m not the scout person here.) He just looks like a goal scorer who’s best primed to score bazillion point in the NHL and me want. Johnson feels a bit riskier in terms of what he turns into in the NHL, I don’t like that and his fancy pants skills don’t sell me more on him than Guenther. (And Johnson does seem more like a guy you would go for (you like fancy pants lol) while Eklund is the kid you would adopt. If I may be so bold to judge such things.)

There’s something inherently more risky about taking a defensemen high, it‘s simply easier to make predictions about elite forward production. Clarke sounds like someone we must draft though if get a chance though, you got a take a swing at a top pair RD like him, a home run there is biggest transformative element in the NHL. Ask the Avs, they have two (Girard for Turris is ironically the new Forsberg for Erat.). Not sure I take any of the LHD over Guenther though if we’re picking up high but that’s my current hot take.

Luke Hughes is less tempting if skating is his best attribute particularly since his foot just exploded. I admit I’m mildly resentful (through no fault of his own or Jack’s) because of the annoying “we need to draft Luke to win Jack’s love” narrative. I hate it because I can see it might actually potentially influence Fitz (though I hope not), particularly if he shares Shero’s fixation with prospects connected together by team or whatever. (I think those connections might help with lesser prospects but it shouldn’t apply to elite talent.)

I do think it’s kind of impossible to draft Owen Power over Luke Hughes though, unless they absolutely loved him to death or something, because then it’s picking a different LHD over Luke and that’s a little harsh lookwise lol.

I’m not going to think too hard about this until our draft position is set a little more. I tend to do like a few guys a lot more than the others though, I’m not a big list person.

Morrow has been really tempting to me but you always do a good sales pitch for your stalwart defensemen picks lower in the 1st round and I usually succumb to most of them. (Sometimes less with forwards at times because of taste and temperament, I was team Mercer but not Team Perrault in 2020. I liked Zary or Bourque or even my sweet Czech boy Mysak more. (Maybe I’m misremembering your 2020 draft takes tho, I do know you made me sad we didn’t get Brock Faber. I don’t know how that helps me in life going forward but it happened.)

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Don't take this wrong, because I welcome all opinions and encourage everyone to submit their own -- but if you were to trade up for Hughes in this draft, it would be a very, very questionable decision in this year's draft.

Let's say the Devils wind up picking 6th overall and the first three picks are Power/Beniers/Guenther. You're saying you'd be willing to cough up a 2nd round pick + a young player like Kuokkanen or Sharangovich or a prospect like Bahl or Okhotyuk, which would be the likely cost to move up two spots to take Luke Hughes?

I'm questioning that logic, because there would still be a reasonable chance that Hughes would fall to #6. Even if Hughes was taken at #4 or #5, it would increase your odds of getting a future 1RD like Clarke or a future 1LW like Johnson or Eklund. The Devils are likely deeper in the prospect pool at LD than any NHL organization aside from Ottawa and have a LD Rookie of the Year candidate in Ty Smith. What the Devils do not have is a Brandt Clarke or Kent Johnson.

Don't get me wrong -- I love the top LDs -- both Hughes and Power. If the Devils were picking anywhere and wound up with one of those two, I'd be thrilled. But the cost to move up so early in the 1st round is huge, and considering the talent parity between the top 7 picks, it just seems to me like an unnecessary risk to take.

I’m wondering if the price to move up a couple spots may not be as high this year as in past years because of the talent parity at the top. A team may be more willing to move back if they think that the player at 6 or 7 is going to be just as good as the player they could take at 4. If they don’t have a player they really want more than others and there’s a few players they have similarly ranked why not move back a couple spots.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Yeah, you just outlined the reason why I would take Guenther if we took a forward first and it’s not really close. (Note: It’s early and I’m not the scout person here.) He just looks like a goal scorer who’s best primed to score bazillion point in the NHL and me want. Johnson feels a bit riskier in terms of what he turns into in the NHL, I don’t like that and his fancy pants skills don’t sell me more on him than Guenther. (And Johnson does seem more like a guy you would go for (you like fancy pants lol) while Eklund is the kid you would adopt. If I may be so bold to judge such things.)

There’s something inherently more risky about taking a defensemen high, it‘s simply easier to make predictions about elite forward production. Clarke sounds like someone we must draft though if get a chance though, you got a take a swing at a top pair RD like him, a home run there is biggest transformative element in the NHL. Ask the Avs, they have two (Girard for Turris is ironically the new Forsberg for Erat.). Not sure I take any of the LHD over Guenther though if we’re picking up high but that’s my current hot take.

Luke Hughes is less tempting if skating is his best attribute particularly since his foot just exploded. I admit I’m mildly resentful (through no fault of his own or Jack’s) because of the annoying “we need to draft Luke to win Jack’s love” narrative. I hate it because I can see it might actually potentially influence Fitz (though I hope not), particularly if he shares Shero’s fixation with prospects connected together by team or whatever. (I think those connections might help with lesser prospects but it shouldn’t apply to elite talent.)

I do think it’s kind of impossible to draft Owen Power over Luke Hughes though, unless they absolutely loved him to death or something, because then it’s picking a different LHD over Luke and that’s a little harsh lookwise lol.

I’m not going to think too hard about this until our draft position is set a little more. I tend to do like a few guys a lot more than the others though, I’m not a big list person.

Morrow has been really tempting to me but you always do a good sales pitch for your stalwart defensemen picks lower in the 1st round and I usually succumb to most of them. (Sometimes less with forwards at times because of taste and temperament, I was team Mercer but not Team Perrault in 2020. I liked Zary or Bourque or even my sweet Czech boy Mysak more. (Maybe I’m misremembering your 2020 draft takes tho, I do know you made me sad we didn’t get Brock Faber. I don’t know how that helps me in life going forward but it happened.)

Johnson has really good skill but isn’t necessarily just a fancy pants player. He goes to the hard areas and goes to the front of the net and gets some goals there.

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

Don't take this wrong, because I welcome all opinions and encourage everyone to submit their own -- but if you were to trade up for Hughes in this draft, it would be a very, very questionable decision in this year's draft.
Let's say the Devils wind up picking 6th overall and the first three picks are Power/Beniers/Guenther. You're saying you'd be willing to cough up a 2nd round pick + a young player like Kuokkanen or Sharangovich or a prospect like Bahl or Okhotyuk, which would be the likely cost to move up two spots to take Luke Hughes?
I'm questioning that logic, because there would still be a reasonable chance that Hughes would fall to #6. Even if Hughes was taken at #4 or #5, it would increase your odds of getting a future 1RD like Clarke or a future 1LW like Johnson or Eklund. The Devils are likely deeper in the prospect pool at LD than any NHL organization aside from Ottawa and have a LD Rookie of the Year candidate in Ty Smith. What the Devils do not have is a Brandt Clarke or Kent Johnson.
Don't get me wrong -- I love the top LDs -- both Hughes and Power. If the Devils were picking anywhere and wound up with one of those two, I'd be thrilled. But the cost to move up so early in the 1st round is huge, and considering the talent parity between the top 7 picks, it just seems to me like an unnecessary risk to take.

Id pay the price because I think itd be a huge turning point for this franchise. Heres why:

1. The obvious Luke-Jack connection
2. As youve said yourself he is the best skater in the draft; and I personally value skating #1 in todays NHL
3. Defense nowadays is becoming more about possession and level of danger chances while less about physical puck blocking/crease clearing type defense from earlier Devils times (not saying either is more beneficial than the other)
4. This would be a long-term pick even for the organizations growth; two brothers with high end star potential who are personable. Amazing for growth among youth
5. Itd help convince Jack to stay longer term or possibly most of his career. This isnt something I worry about but it is something to be considered, as players nowadays tend to leave in free agency more often than before (notice most if any stars ever signed in FA were recent)
6. Finally I think the dynamic talent Luke brings would outweigh the difference in value we pay considering how deep our pool is. Id argue its the deepest in the NHL, just not in the high-end department. Which Luke brings more than moving an extra NYI 1st and a prospect like Bahl and/or Kuokkanen/Sharangovich. With those assets its more 'what can they be' where with Luke Im more 'when can he become that'

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

I dont know if Id call it a narrative; but I can promise Jack and Quinn are gonna both be in their respective GM's ears trying to recruit for Luke. In fact id bet theyre having a bit of a game with it Lol

 

[TheDuke93]

Id pay the price because I think itd be a huge turning point for this franchise. Heres why:

1. The obvious Luke-Jack connection
2. As youve said yourself he is the best skater in the draft; and I personally value skating #1 in todays NHL
3. Defense nowadays is becoming more about possession and level of danger chances while less about physical puck blocking/crease clearing type defense from earlier Devils times (not saying either is more beneficial than the other)
4. This would be a long-term pick even for the organizations growth; two brothers with high end star potential who are personable. Amazing for growth among youth
5. Itd help convince Jack to stay longer term or possibly most of his career. This isnt something I worry about but it is something to be considered, as players nowadays tend to leave in free agency more often than before (notice most if any stars ever signed in FA were recent)
6. Finally I think the dynamic talent Luke brings would outweigh the difference in value we pay considering how deep our pool is. Id argue its the deepest in the NHL, just not in the high-end department. Which Luke brings more than moving an extra NYI 1st and a prospect like Bahl and/or Kuokkanen/Sharangovich. With those assets its more 'what can they be' where with Luke Im more 'when can he become that'

IQ and Compete are more important IMO then skating but it is most likely 3rd.

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

IQ and Compete are more important IMO then skating but it is most likely 3rd.

I could agree with compete; however I find in hockey theres more of an intertwined connection between IQ and actual skill. I wouldnt call it common place that players of a high-ilk are 'tools no toolbox' types. More often theyre 'toolbox no tools' in hockey vs other sports

thats just a personal philosophy of mine on the nuances of hockey vs other sports.

 

[TheDuke93]

I could agree with compete; however I find in hockey theres more of an intertwined connection between IQ and actual skill. I wouldnt call it common place that players of a high-ilk are 'tools no toolbox' types. More often theyre 'toolbox no tools' in hockey vs other sports

thats just a personal philosophy of mine on the nuances of hockey vs other sports.

Look at a guy like Yakupov he had a ton of great tools but he didn't know how to use them.

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

Look at a guy like Yakupov he had a ton of great tools but he didn't know how to use them.

Of course there are examples; im talking about how prevalent it is vs other sports

i find the average hockey prospect to be smarter than given credit for; they just dont have the tools to act on or react fast enough or whatever it be (because we cant include things like vision/reactions/and so on with IQ)

 

[TheDuke93]

Of course there are examples; im talking about how prevalent it is vs other sports

i find the average hockey prospect to be smarter than given credit for; they just dont have the tools to act on or react fast enough or whatever it be (because we cant include things like vision/reactions/and so on with IQ)

That is fair but at the same time I would say that vision/IQ are intertwined and reactions kind of goes hand in hand with a players hand eye coordination and their IQ. You can quantify that a bit IMO. I just think if you look at Smith for example none of his physical traits except maybe his hands are above that good yet his IQ is off the charts and that is what makes him a special player.

 

[Blackjack]

Just about every defenseman drafted in the first round has the physical tools to do the job (there are a few exceptions, like McIlrath). John Moore is a good example of why being a superb skater isn't enough. I'm certainly not suggesting that Hughes is the next Moore, but I'm not a fan of picking guys because they're great skaters.

 

[TheDuke93]

Just about every defenseman drafted in the first round has the physical tools to do the job (there are a few exceptions, like McIlrath). John Moore is a good example of why being a superb skater isn't enough. I'm certainly not suggesting that Hughes is the next Moore, but I'm not a fan of picking guys because they're great skaters.

To me while its not exactly the same but skating is kind of like size. It's absolutely great when a player can fly and dance around people but if they don't know what they are doing its wasted.

 

[Hockey Fanatik]

Just about every defenseman drafted in the first round has the physical tools to do the job (there are a few exceptions, like McIlrath). John Moore is a good example of why being a superb skater isn't enough. I'm certainly not suggesting that Hughes is the next Moore, but I'm not a fan of picking guys because they're great skaters.

Thats not the only reason, it just so happens to be the main reason for me. Its what I see as the #1 trait with the way the game is going.

obviously that means if theres two prospects, ones a great skater and has attitude issues and not the brightest, And ones an okay skater but a captain.. its obvious I wont choose the great skater then, yaknow

like you said; all of these guys have the tools, and yet Luke still is the better skater and younger than the rest. And his brother is living proof of what great skating can get you in todays NHL (who Luke is better than at 18 IMO)

So on the flip side, im also saying out of the top-7 their IQs are probably not too far apart. So thats why I dont rank it above skating

 

[Oneiro]

The Hughes brothers are on a different tier of skating to me. They're in that class of players that can truly make plays 360 at any speed, Fedorov/Neidermayer-style. Maybe if we won the lottery and picked him first there would be some whining, but clearly none of us would be crying if we took Luke in the top 6. Well, that's a lie, there's always crying.

 

[TheDuke93]

The Hughes brothers are on a different tier of skating to me. They're in that class of players that can truly make plays 360, Fedorov/Neidermayer-style. Maybe if we won the lottery and picked him first there would be some whining, but clearly none of us would be crying if we took Luke in the top 6. Well, that's a lie, there's always crying.

There is always going to be whining haha. For me personally I just have him ranked 7th out of the main guys, need being the biggest factor in that.