Blue Jays Discussion: Steve Pearce: comeback machine

[hoc123]

To a certain degree sure. But there needs to be something there, usually that manifests itself after a tweak here or there.

Kluber, as an example, would not be traded in such a trade in 2017. What clubs know now about advanced statistics. I would argue, even then, the Indians knew what they were doing (don't shoot me, Shapiro haters) and identified Kluber for that trade. The Padres may have thought he was a scrap, but the Indians did not.

If a 24 year old in Double-A with a 2.94 FIP and a 95 mph cutter was traded to the Jays in the Estrada deal, I would not consider that a "scrap".

Exactly, while I agree it's less likely now you'll find someone like Kluber now for the reasons you stated but there will always be "scraps" who have something that could turn them into an actual good player. For example, Angel Perdomo is a "scrap" who probably doesn't have much value, yet he is a 6"6 lefty with a mid 90's fastball who had 11.06 K/9 last year. He likely won't even make the majors be has a chance at becoming something decent, and that's better then just letting a soon to be free agent leave when he has no use to you for the rest of the season.

 

[Leafin]

I was reading somewhere can't remember who but will post the link once I find it. The Indians were in the running for JD Martinez looking to add another bat to their lineup.

Maybe Atkins can talk to their former team about Jose. I am sure EE would put a good word in and Jose would probably waive his 10-5 rights, Atkins and Shapiro know the Indians farm system as they drafted most of those players. They might be able to score a decent return of lower level prospects who can turn into solid players at the big league level.

They won't get a top prospects for Jose but might be able to find a decent one

If we're getting into hypothetical deals for Bautista this something i could see happening. More so the trade to the Indians. Less so the return being a quality prospect that turns into a solid big league contributor. Maybe if we eat the remainder of his deal we might get something decent back. Even then i don't know if Bautista has much if any value at this point. He looks pretty done.

Losing sucks.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Exactly, while I agree it's less likely now you'll find someone like Kluber now for the reasons you stated but there will always be "scraps" who have something that could turn them into an actual good player. For example, Angel Perdomo is a "scrap" who probably doesn't have much value, yet he is a 6"6 lefty with a mid 90's fastball who had 11.06 K/9 last year. He likely won't even make the majors be has a chance at becoming something decent, and that's better then just letting a soon to be free agent leave when he has no use to you for the rest of the season.

Yeah, there's a reason Angel didn't get taken in the rule-5 this past offseason. Fastball is too straight and he doesn't spot it well. I would call him "scrap" at this point, unfortunately.

Borucki fits your example perfectly. I understand what your saying completely, and don't disagree.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Jaime Garcia to the Twins

 

[trellaine201]

I'm cheering for the Mariners, hope they have a good second half

 

[OVO16]

You guys think the Jays will make a trade come deadline? Whether its for sell or buy (future) mode...?

 

[Woodman19]

You guys think the Jays will make a trade come deadline? Whether its for sell or buy (future) mode...?

Oh, short answer, "yes" with an "if." Long answer, "no" with a "but."

 

[ToneDog]

I'll say Estrada is traded to the Royals, Smith is traded to the Brewers, and the Jays trade for Dee Gordan for a prospect with with minimal value "think a prospect like Zach Jackson.

I would add that they send Liriano out to anybody who would be willing to take him.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-sox-big-bets-on-risk/

Ok, something weird is going on with Dave Cameron. That's two non-douchy, well thought out articles in a row. I'm worried. Like, this is tremendous. It has all the fun stuff....

Exposing of the overrating of Yankees prospects:

And Rutherford stands out as the biggest outlier of all, ranking as a top-tier prospect in both the pre-season and mid-season BA lists, but grading out as a fringe prospect at best by his actual performance record to this point.

Important caveats filled with lessons for certain extreme posters (on both sides) in this thread:

Of course, stats-only models are ignoring hugely important factors in a player’s development, and no one should look at KATOH’s numbers and think those are the right ones. Performance record is important, but it’s definitely not everything, and you’re always better off including as much good information as you can, which is why KATOH+ will do a better job of projecting players than the stats-only model.

More life lessons for the young folk out here in these streets:

But it’s also not a coincidence that these were the guys who weren’t off limits in negotiations. While it’s not like the Red Sox were eager to give up Yoan Moncada, his performance — specifically his contact rate — raised some red flags, and made him a bit more of an offensive question mark that the usual type of players who are rated as the best overall prospect in the game.

And a sound thesis:

Pretty soon, the White Sox might want to start adding some guys who have a bit lower ceilings but better chances of turning into Major Leaguers, because as this teardown shows, having a few stars surrounded by a bunch of busts doesn’t really equal a winner.

Get out of my dreams and into my car, Cameron.

 

[Morgs]

Looking at Bichette's FV on Fangraphs got me wondering what you think it will be at the end of the season.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Vlad: 65 FV (70 Hit \ 70 Power \ 45 Run \ 55 Arm \ 45 Field)
Bo: 65 FV (70 Hit \ 70 Power \ 50 Run \ 50 Arm \ 45 Field)

 

[Woodman19]

Vlad: 65 FV (70 Hit \ 70 Power \ 45 Run \ 55 Arm \ 45 Field)
Bo: 65 FV (70 Hit \ 70 Power \ 50 Run \ 50 Arm \ 45 Field)

Can't bring myself to give such a small guy a 70 power projection. 55 for me.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Can't bring myself to give such a small guy a 70 power projection. 55 for me.

Mookie out here 5"9 with 70 grade power.

Baez was 70 grade as a prospect, and was the same size. With that ISO at 19, I think you have to go 65 at minimum.

 

[zeke]

sure hope Bo ends up a more valuable fielder than that.

 

[metafour]

This was the BP scouting report on Bichette from a few days ago:

 

[zeke]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-sox-big-bets-on-risk/

Ok, something weird is going on with Dave Cameron. That's two non-douchy, well thought out articles in a row. I'm worried. Like, this is tremendous. It has all the fun stuff....

Exposing of the overrating of Yankees prospects:

and even moreso the red sox prospects.


but it's a great article on a subject I can't feel more strongly about - if you have a top-ranked prospect with serious question marks statistically, it's almost always a good bet to capitalize on that value by trading him for an actual impact player.

 

[zeke]

This was the BP scouting report on Bichette from a few days ago:

a 60 arm is tres encouraging, as it makes 3B a realistic fallback instead of just 2B/OF.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This was the BP scouting report on Bichette from a few days ago:

That is tremendous. Thanks for posting that man.

Those 60 grades don't seem to match the write-ups, weirdly.

 

[Walshy7]

trade interest in joey bats according to the score. He can veto any trade right? you think he would go to a contender?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

trade interest in joey bats according to the score. He can veto any trade right? you think he would go to a contender?

I would think. I think he likes Toronto, but he'll leave to go to a better team + he will have the money that other teams were not going to give him.

 

[phillipmike]

trade interest in joey bats according to the score. He can veto any trade right? you think he would go to a contender?

I think he would go to the Astros (no need for them), Dodgers (no need), Cleveland (Edwin), Red Sox (rumored in the off-season) and the Cubs (no need).

Leaves Cleveland as they need OF help and they were after him in the off-season and Boston.

Part of me thinks he doesnt want to go anywhere and wants to retire a Jay but unless his price comes down a lot this off-season then this is likely his last year.

 

[Stats01]

This was the BP scouting report on Bichette from a few days ago:

Wow....droollllssss! All-star calibre bat that can projects to play 2nd or 3rd. Plays with hair on fire tenacity. Premium bat speed. Woww yes please

 

[ToneDog]

Sid was talking about Jays acquiring Odor from Texas last night. I don't know what it would cost but he would be the kind of player I would be interested in going forward.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRagSports.com, the Blue Jays expressed interest in acquiring Rougned Odor. He does go on to say in the article that his sources didn’t indicate whether that was before or after “the punch”, but Heyman mentions them as a plausible fit either way.

 

[Stats01]

I think he would go to the Astros (no need for them), Dodgers (no need), Cleveland (Edwin), Red Sox (rumored in the off-season) and the Cubs (no need).

Leaves Cleveland as they need OF help and they were after him in the off-season and Boston.

Part of me thinks he doesnt want to go anywhere and wants to retire a Jay but unless his price comes down a lot this off-season then this is likely his last year.

He looks done. Even when we let him go in the off-season who would sign him? He's finished as an outfielder his decline has been sharp and fast. He may not want to anywhere and he has 10-5 rights but I'm sure every team out there has seen what we've seen.

I just don't see Bautista as an option for a lot teams. Even teams looking for outfield insurance can probably find a cheaper alternative

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Wow....droollllssss! All-star calibre bat that can projects to play 2nd or 3rd. Plays with hair on fire tenacity. Premium bat speed. Woww yes please

Where have you been? It's nice to see the scouts affirm the metrics, though. I agree.

Sid was talking about Jays acquiring Odor from Texas last night. I don't know what it would cost but he would be the kind of player I would be interested in going forward.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRagSports.com, the Blue Jays expressed interest in acquiring Rougned Odor. He does go on to say in the article that his sources didn’t indicate whether that was before or after “the punchâ€, but Heyman mentions them as a plausible fit either way.

I met a homeless guy down here in Panama that was talking about the Jays the other day. At least, I think it was the Jays. I don't know, he was mumbling.