I'd give Pavs one more year of plateau, but I do think that when he falls that it will be much quicker than JT.
It would depend on how serious they are on this rebuild thing. If they're serious about it and/or both Thornton and Marleau want/need to go then Pavs should probably go too. They aren't contending and would be a fringe playoff team without those two and Pavs would likely be trending down hard by the time they would turn it around.