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Speculation: So...what's next?

jaster

jaster

Take me off ignore, please.
Jun 8, 2007
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OgeeOgelthorpe said:
The Avs were a powerhouse last year but it was also the only season he was given 1st line minutes. Most other years his ATOI was between 16 and 17:36 with one season above 18. In Calgary Kadri is pretty much guaranteed to be at 19 minutes a night with Uber Dough and Lindholm. Or maybe they spread it out and he's got Toffoli and Mangiapane? 70+ points for Kadri isn't out of the question in Calgary.
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70+ points can still be closer to his career average before last season than what he did last season. I STAND BY WHAT I WROTE, OGEE!

Ok, I'll tease out my argument here and make an official prediction. Kadri has been a full-time NHLer for 9 seasons now....

Last year, his 82-game pace was 100.5 points.

Over the previous 8 seasons his 82-game pace was 52.2 points.

Midpoint there is 76.35 points. So that's my O/U. I predict that Kadri's scoring pace this year will be under that number.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

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Feb 29, 2020
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jaster said:
70+ points can still be closer to his career average before last season than what he did last season. I STAND BY WHAT I WROTE, OGEE!

Ok, I'll tease out my argument here and make an official prediction. Kadri has been a full-time NHLer for 9 seasons now....

Last year, his 82-game pace was 100.5 points.

Over the previous 8 seasons his 82-game pace was 52.2 points.

Midpoint there is 76.35 points. So that's my O/U. I predict that Kadri's scoring pace this year will be under that number.
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And I think that's fair. Kadri isn't paid like a 100.5 point per season center. He's making 7 million AAV. That's more along the lines of a 60-70 point center. The last 2 or 3 years of the contract are going to suck but by then we're looking at a 90 million plus cap, and Kadri might just LTIRetire in year 5 or 6 anyway.
 
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Henkka

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,213
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Tampere, Finland
Last season Kadri played most with Avs 2nd line guys. Burakowsky, Nichuskin, Girard, Johnson.

When Mackinnon was injured he was able to put equal effort as MacKinnon at 1st line.

That's kind of a season and didn't get paid anything extraordinary money on this contract season.

At this point I would be worried as Avs GM who can replicate the same at next season?
Newhook isn't ready, Compher is meh.
They don't have anyone near the same level and will regress bad.

Burakowsky+Kadri was a huge thing.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

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Feb 29, 2020
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Henkka said:
Last season Kadri played most with Avs 2nd line guys. Burakowsky, Nichuskin, Girard, Johnson.

When Mackinnon was injured he was able to put equal effort as MacKinnon at 1st line.

That's kind of a season and didn't get paid anything extraordinary money on this contract season.

At this point I would be worried as Avs GM who can replicate the same at next season?
Newhook isn't ready, Compher is meh.
They don't have anyone near the same level and will regress bad.

Burakowsky+Kadri was a huge thing.
Click to expand...

Lucky for the Avs that nobody in the western conference significantly improved. Some teams got way worse. I’m expecting 3 of the 4 worst teams to be in the west next year.
 
Gniwder

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,317
7,657
Bellingham, WA
Henkka said:
Last season Kadri played most with Avs 2nd line guys. Burakowsky, Nichuskin, Girard, Johnson.

When Mackinnon was injured he was able to put equal effort as MacKinnon at 1st line.

That's kind of a season and didn't get paid anything extraordinary money on this contract season.

At this point I would be worried as Avs GM who can replicate the same at next season?
Newhook isn't ready, Compher is meh.
They don't have anyone near the same level and will regress bad.

Burakowsky+Kadri was a huge thing.
Click to expand...

Burakovski was inured in the playoffs though, broken ankle. (Maybe a bone chip? Didn't seem completely broken)

I still think Statsny goes back to CO on a cheap one year, they have close to $4M cap space.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

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ButtKrak said:
Burakovski was inured in the playoffs though, broken ankle. (Maybe a bone chip? Didn't seem completely broken)

I still think Statsny goes back to CO on a cheap one year, they have close to $4M cap space.
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That would be the smart thing for that team. They lost Burakovsky and Kadri who were very important pieces and didn't really replace them. Maybe they'll get 2nd line production out of Artturi Lehkonen or JT Compher but as it stands they might have to move Landeskog or Rantanen to 2C.
 
Gniwder

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,317
7,657
Bellingham, WA
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
That would be the smart thing for that team. They lost Burakovsky and Kadri who were very important pieces and didn't really replace them. Maybe they'll get 2nd line production out of Artturi Lehkonen or JT Compher but as it stands they might have to move Landeskog or Rantanen to 2C.
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Stastny signed with Carolina for $1.5M x 1 yr. Surprised CO didn't go for it.
 
lilidk

lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
9,856
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Number1RedWingsFan52 said:
Agreed, I can't see Yzerman trading for only one season, If he can sign him for $7,000,000 x 5 years. He'd still hold more value for us in a trade. We probably could get twice as much for Bert than what we got for Mantha.
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If we get similar what we got for Mantha it whoud be great. Mantha trade was highway robbery. If Bert sign for 1-2 years I expect he will be traded
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

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Feb 29, 2020
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WingsToPick4th said:
Why do you guys want to trade Bertuzzi? Hes a stud, it is very hard to replace a player like him.
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But…he’s not.

Yes he had 30 goals but on a good team is more likely to be a second liner. When ranking the top 1st line left wings in the league he’s solidly bottom tier for me.
 
WingsToPick4th

WingsToPick4th

Registered User
Jan 5, 2020
881
1,036
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
But…he’s not.

Yes he had 30 goals but on a good team is more likely to be a second liner. When ranking the top 1st line left wings in the league he’s solidly bottom tier for me.
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then move Vrana up and put him with Copp and Perron - this would be an amazing 2nd line
 
OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,214
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sparr0w said:
Or... find a sucker like they did with Mantha.

The eyeball appeal of Bertuzzi is WAY bigger than his actual on ice impact.
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I’m more inclined to this. People on this forum say that you can’t win with Larkin at 1C but it’s clear that Bertuzzi is the least talented guy on Detroit’s first line. I’m not expecting a Marchand type Renaissance from him.
 
norrisnick

norrisnick

The best...
Apr 14, 2005
29,224
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Bertuzzi is the modern day Marty Lapointe.

Great 2nd liner if you keep him at 2nd line price, but you will regret paying him 1st line money.
 
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Number1RedWingsFan52

Number1RedWingsFan52

Registered User
Mar 17, 2013
40,243
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Winter Haven Florida
WingsToPick4th said:
Why do you guys want to trade Bertuzzi? Hes a stud, it is very hard to replace a player like him.
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It's not like we really want to trade him, But let's face facts. He's unvaxxed so that's going to cost us at least 10 games in Canada for the foreseeable future. Plus it's not like things have gone smoothly on the contract front. He took the team to arbitration 2 years ago. by all reports he wants to get paid both money and term. And i'm just not sure that Yzerman is going to give him what he wants. But we shall see.
 
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