Rumor: Skinner looking for 8 years @ 9-9.5 million to keep him from going to the market

[ElLeetch]

Because salaries become inflated

as i said, that wasn't a goal of the CBA.

 

[strongcomp05]

If he scores 44 goals this year, will you still refer to him as a 30+30 winger?

What if he scores 52 goals? How much is he worth?

For 3 weeks we've been told he'll regress to the mean.... and in that time he's only increase his on pace goal scoring from 54 to 62....

i mean, he could also cool down and score 20, or get injured... its pretty easy to play this what if game. Either way, he's not worth 9 mil, nor will he ever.

 

[Znith]

If he scores 44 goals this year, will you still refer to him as a 30+30 winger?

What if he scores 52 goals? How much is he worth?

For 3 weeks we've been told he'll regress to the mean.... and in that time he's only increase his on pace goal scoring from 54 to 62....

LOL "For 3 weeks"
Have you never seen a hot streak before?

By this logic you would have paid William Karlsson $9.5m x 8 years last summer

I do think the Sabres re-sign him but it will be a contentious negotiation. Should be more like $7.5x8, $8x8 range

 

[Jame]

i mean, he could also cool down and score 20, or get injured... its pretty easy to play this what if game. Either way, he's not worth 9 mil, nor will he ever.

So, in your opinion a 26 year old 50 goal scorer is not worth 9 million?

I think Skinner's "worth" isn't understood properly when staring at stats and ringing the regression bell.

Part of Skinner's worth is in the Sabres going from worst to first.
Part of Skinner's worth is in having dynamite chemistry with Jack Eichel
Part of Skinner's worth is in the speed and skill he brings to a lineup that lacked it
Part of Skinner's worth is tied to the fan base
And yes... a big part of Skinner's worth is in the stats that come along with all of that.

I understand he could cool off (even if his shooting % drops to 15% tomorrow.... his shot pace would produce another 28 goals, for a total of 47 goals). Hell, he could fall off a cliff, and only score 21 more goals in the next 57 games.... and that would still make him a 40 goal scorer this year.

Regardless, Skinner can name his price... and Botts job is to whittle that number down as much as possible while getting him to sign on the dotted line. It doesn't really matter if the final number is 1-2 million more than it "should be" based on whatever math is fancy at the moment.

 

[Djp]

The differnece is that the cap is used by legit stars. I'm sorry but Skinner, Berglund, and Okposo are not stars. Botterill isn't in the same spot he was with the Pens. Skinner is a UFA who will get paid in open market from someone. He has no loyalty to Buffalo. He can't really play hardball the best he can do is pitch his vision and ask him to take a bit less to stay which he might do but he has no reason to.

I see no issues with giving Eichel and Dahlin their money it's the other guys. The other guys aren't good enough to be your core / supporting guys.

With players being paid higher the mean rises so you are seeing avg players being paid in the 4-6M range.

assuming $84M cap with $48M for forwards the ideal set up

star player $10M
1 very good players making around 8M avg
4 other players making 5M avg
----6 players making 38M out of 48M
2 players on $2M bridge
6 players on ELCs/$1M contracts
--total $48M for 14 F

With D/G $36M in total
2 goalies combined around $7M
top Dman $9M
#2and #3 make $11M combined
#4Dman making $4M
#5 Dman making $2M Bridge
#6Dman on ELC
7Dman on $2M contract
total for D/G is $36M

 

[Jame]

LOL "For 3 weeks"
Have you never seen a hot streak before?

By this logic you would have paid William Karlsson $9.5m x 8 years last summer

I do think the Sabres re-sign him but it will be a contentious negotiation. Should be more like $7.5x8, $8x8 range

Karlsson had like 10 career goals before that streak.
Skinner has been a 30 goal scorer for years.

Try harder.

8 million is 10% of an 80 million cap
9 million is 11.25% of an 80 million cap

The fact that people think this is a difference worth being contentious over... is kind of hilarious.

 

[sens13]

he'll get 9 easy. as mentioned before the cap has gone up. people need to look at the % of the cap. 11.25% for a guy who can consistently get 35+ goals (he will with Eichel) is fair value.

 

[Znith]

Karlsson had like 10 career goals before that streak.
Skinner has been a 30 goal scorer for years.

Try harder.

8 million is 10% of an 80 million cap
9 million is 11.25% of an 80 million cap

The fact that people think this is a difference worth being contentious over... is kind of hilarious.

So your argument is that he's a 30 goal scorer and should be paid like a perennial 50 goal scorer?

 

[StreetHawk]

LOL "For 3 weeks"
Have you never seen a hot streak before?

By this logic you would have paid William Karlsson $9.5m x 8 years last summer

I do think the Sabres re-sign him but it will be a contentious negotiation. Should be more like $7.5x8, $8x8 range

It seems like skinner has been around for a decade or longer but he’s from the same draft as Hall and Seguin and Johansen.

Seguin and Johansen got paid for contract 3. Hall in another year gets paid.

He will get paid just depends on who pays him. You have to ask yourself as a gm, what do I believe his production will be over the term of the contract. That is what you are paying for. Don’t worry about pst accomplishments, as those set your comfort level of expectation.

 

[Jame]

So your argument is that he's a 30 goal scorer and should be paid like a perennial 50 goal scorer?

My argument has always been that he should be paid relative to his performance and impact in buffalo.

The fact that he was a 30 goal scorer with low end talent like Riley Nash and Derek Ryan, is only relevant in validating his higher level performance with an elite center (Eichel).

Ps a perennial 50 goal scorer would get 12 million or more. Ovechkin got over 16% of the cap when he signed for 9.5.... 16% of today’s cap in 12.75

 

[Djp]

So your argument is that he's a 30 goal scorer and should be paid like a perennial 50 goal scorer?

Tavarasas avg 33 goals over 82g and how much does he get paid?

Patrick Kane avg 31.5 over 82 games

 

[north49er]

Damn the league doesn't really mess with marijuana and all the sudden these players start thinking their worth 9m+ a year...I want whatever Skinner is smoking up in Buffalo if he thinks he deserves 9m let alone 8m. He's shooting like 22% and coming off a garbage year. Good luck Buf if you take this.

The next lockout is going to be fun

Are the concussions he had starting to take effect?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Note Sabre fans are fine with paying Skinner because we actually have seen what he is doing. Coming from the consensus who called us a surefire bottom 5 team keep the amazing predictions coming.

Skinner in Carolina was a 30 goal player by himself. I have wanted him for over 5 years. I posted on HF in 2013 wishing we could trade Tyler Myers for Skinner. That's how far back it is that I've wanted him. Skinner is a top tier goal scorer and will continue to be one. Sabres can reap the rewards while HF tries to say hes overpaid because they look at shooting %

 

[wetcoast]

This source is legit, he's given White accurate information previously.

If that is the case he will be looking for a while and even if some teams signs him for that they will regret it.

 

[strongcomp05]

So, in your opinion a 26 year old 50 goal scorer is not worth 9 million?

I think Skinner's "worth" isn't understood properly when staring at stats and ringing the regression bell.

Part of Skinner's worth is in the Sabres going from worst to first.
Part of Skinner's worth is in having dynamite chemistry with Jack Eichel
Part of Skinner's worth is in the speed and skill he brings to a lineup that lacked it
Part of Skinner's worth is tied to the fan base
And yes... a big part of Skinner's worth is in the stats that come along with all of that.

I understand he could cool off (even if his shooting % drops to 15% tomorrow.... his shot pace would produce another 28 goals, for a total of 47 goals). Hell, he could fall off a cliff, and only score 21 more goals in the next 57 games.... and that would still make him a 40 goal scorer this year.

Regardless, Skinner can name his price... and Botts job is to whittle that number down as much as possible while getting him to sign on the dotted line. It doesn't really matter if the final number is 1-2 million more than it "should be" based on whatever math is fancy at the moment.

imo no he's not, and he wont score 50, so get out of that thinking. Side note, I'd LOVE if the sabres paid a LW 9mil + a year lol

 

[StreetHawk]

imo no he's not, and he wont score 50, so get out of that thinking. Side note, I'd LOVE if the sabres paid a LW 9mil + a year lol

The most important thing to declare first is the level
Of production you expect out of Skinner over the duration of his new contract.

Whether you believe he’s a 30, 40, or 50 goa guy and or 70. 80, 90 point guy will determine the value you place on him. Whether you are on the high end or low end of his production should dictate what you believe he is worth.

50 goals does warrant $9 million plus per. Just a matter of whether you view skinner as a guy who can and will do that over the few seasons.

 

[Jame]

The most important thing to declare first is the level
Of production you expect out of Skinner over the duration of his new contract.

Whether you believe he’s a 30, 40, or 50 goa guy and or 70. 80, 90 point guy will determine the value you place on him. Whether you are on the high end or low end of his production should dictate what you believe he is worth.

50 goals does warrant $9 million plus per. Just a matter of whether you view skinner as a guy who can and will do that over the few seasons.

In reality consistent 50 goal production would warrant 12-14 million per year

 

[BFLO]

According to cap-friendly Skinner got 9.54% of the cap on his last deal. That would be 7.87 mil on an 82.5 mil cap.

Skinner injury prone? JVR and Ekane came into the league a season before Skinner and Skinner has played 2 more games than Kane and 12 fewer than JVR. Skinner is performing far better than Kane did on the same line with the same line mates.

I'd say Skinner's floor is 8mil/season even if he goes on an insane cold streak and finishes at 35 goals.

Skinner's career g/gp is .37. If he cools to his career average for the remainder of the season, with 57 games left, that's still 21 goals which puts him at 40 for the season.

Since Skinner came into the league in 2010 there have only been 24 players to score 40 or more goals in a season.

Corey Perry is getting paid 8.65mil/season, 13.41% of the cap. That's 11mil in today's cap numbers. He only broke 40 goals twice, 50 once.

Skinner is currently on a 62 goal, 89 point pace.

I'm guessing he finishes just shy of 50 goals and just a little over 70 points. I'd estimate that Skinner is capable of at least 2 more 40 goal/65 point seasons which make 9-9.5mil pretty realistic. 9.5 x 5 would be a great contract. 9.5 x 8 not so much.

 

[ZZamboni]

Some people are living in 2014 if they think Skinner won’t get 8.5 - 9.5 x max or near max term. That’s what a player of his past, present, and future projected output gets in 2019. That falls in line % wise with prior cap hits others (he’s semi-compared to) have received over the years.
Stomp your feet and cross your arms all you want. Complain against it till your fingers are sore. It’s still gonna happen.