News Article: Shero fired, Fitz interim GM part II

[JimEIV]

Good for him - how'd he do the next year? Right - 47 points. What's 47 + 65 divided by 164 *82 ? 56. Exactly the number of points Nico would be on pace for this season.

I used Keller cause he's not that good and not someone to build around and knew you were going to do a Nico comparison....

And he wasn't a #1 overall.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Personally I don't think analytics are as refined or accurate in hockey as they are in baseball. Using them as a supplement is fine. Going all-in on them is very risky.

Plus I've never been a fan of this new age approach of marginalizing managers/coaching but you still need a strong voice at the top regardless. The Yankees for all the talk of analytics and collaboration still have one voice at the top in Cashman. The Red Sox have had one voice at the top whether it's Theo or Dombrowski.

Both also have very strong ownership groups that actively participate in decision making. The key is to find the right trust and mix between the two, the right back and forth that actually makes for better management and decision making, and the right relationship between the personalities. Here’s hoping we find that here. Owners can’t micromanage day to day but there’s nothing wrong with them taking an active role in consultation with the GM, and for the GM also to give analytics, scouting and others an active role and respect. A good office works together well.

This sounds like platitudes and cliches, but there’s a truth there. Cashman largely operates the Yankees by consensus not only between himself and ownership but between himself and those reporting to him.

 

[Triumph]

I used Keller cause he's not that good and not someone to build around and knew you were going to do a Nico comparison....

And he wasn't a #1 overall.

You don't control who gets to be in your draft class. I'm sure Shero would've loved to have drafted Matthews #1 overall. Or Rasmus Dahlin. He didn't get the chance. He drafted Nico, who is going to be a top-line player for another decade.

Here's a list of Devils comparables without adjusting for era (this is a relatively high-scoring season, after all). And that Nico is only 21 because of h-r's stupid age cutoffs, whereas he just turned 21 two weeks ago - he's 11 months younger than Kirk Muller

 

[Triumph]

Both also have very strong ownership groups that actively participate in decision making. The key is to find the right trust and mix between the two, the right back and forth that actually makes for better management and decision making, and the right relationship between the personalities. Here’s hoping we find that here. Owners can’t micromanage day to day but there’s nothing wrong with them taking an active role in consultation with the GM, and for the GM also to give analytics, scouting and others an active role and respect. A good office works together well.

This sounds like platitudes and cliches, but there’s a truth there. Cashman largely operates the Yankees by consensus not only between himself and ownership but between himself and those reporting to him.

It's also very important that absolutely nobody implied that the Devils would go 'all-in' on analytics, and that this is a classic bogeyman. Moreover, 15 years ago the same people would've said the same stuff about baseball that they are saying about hockey now.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

But since they hired Shero in the first place presumably they knew all these personality traits about him, not like the guy's never been a GM before. What, they just found out four years in (and after giving him a recent extension, to boot) he likes a small inner circle and isn't as keen on analytics as they are?

Well yeah, I don't think ownership comes out looking great either. Sort of feels like they didn't really understand what was going on until recently. However they want to set it up, better hope the next management group can put together a cohesive plan for where you go from here.

 

[My3Sons]

If this is true . . . What’s wrong with a collaborative process in running a club? It’s done the current Red Sox and Yankees just fine in baseball. The days of the all powerful GM and owners who mind their business are gone in Hockey and elsewhere. The entire modern trend is to diffuse authority. Ray was no genius either. I think the change is for the better in Newark.

As a lawyer I’ve had to report to clients with diffuse structure. Any moderate to big decision can get “round tabled” and as the lawyer I’m the one who gets the blame when someone else’s plan flops in court. I’ve always found that irksome. People who sit behind a desk and don’t have to face the consequences of their actions are too quick to offer less than fully thought out opinions in my experience and you can spend most of a round table explaining why a particular point of view is ill advised and it’s always a tight rope when telling the big blow hard who is also part of a client group they aren’t doing themselves any favors.

I see both sides of the debate but having lived it it ultimately comes down to trust. If the owners didn’t trust Shero anymore then he had to go but if that lack of trust was based on input from nameless faceless people who can complain about everything and never have to really be responsible for the real world outcome it’s on the owners to realize that as well.

 

[JimEIV]

You don't control who gets to be in your draft class. I'm sure Shero would've loved to have drafted Matthews #1 overall. Or Rasmus Dahlin. He didn't get the chance. He drafted Nico, who is going to be a top-line player for another decade.

Here's a list of Devils comparables without adjusting for era (this is a relatively high-scoring season, after all). And that Nico is only 21 because of h-r's stupid age cutoffs, whereas he just turned 21 two weeks ago - he's 11 months younger than Kirk Muller

That list varies quite a bit in level of player.

But yeah you can't control the Draft year... that's why I don't believe in losing to win. If you tried that from 1996 to 2000 you would've thrown away a decade.. those 5 draft years were pretty ugly.

So in our case if we got two *just good" players this rebuild is going nowhere without anther 5 or 6 "just good" players..2 or 3 need to be on defense too. Just good doesn't move the needle without more help in my opinion. And "just good" can be upgraded..."can be upgraded" is the exact opposite of a core player in my opinion. I loved Verbeek, broke my heart when he was traded for Sylvain Turgeon...but the following year he was replaced quite well by Lemieux. I don't think those are *build around" players and it's why they've played on 3 teams by 30.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Look at this pile of garbage who puts up .6 points a game between the ages of 19 and 21

I counted 17 out of 31 players on that list that are/were really good but I would not consider core players to build around.

So if that’s any indication there’s a 50/50 chance Nico isn’t a true core player. That’s definitely scary.

 

[Guttersniped]

People also may be overthinking it. The earlier playoff run raised expectations and the summer acquisitions raised them further so this season’s failure stung even harder than last year. The fan base is unhappy and the already bad ticket sales are worsening, so the owners feel like they have to do something drastic even if it’s change for change’s sake. They aren’t winning, signing a big UFA and you can’t sell draft excitement after two #1s so this is the only thing that moves the needle. Maybe there weren’t any real clashes over team building philosophy and Fitz ends up doing pretty much what Ray would have at the TDL and draft.

I do think that there’s a chance that the owners made this move mid-season to give Fitz an extended audition as GM since commentators have claim he’s a definite candidate.

 

[BahlDeep]

Can't wait to have Robo-GMs!!!!!!

It's coming

 

[Triumph]

I counted 17 out of 31 players on that list that are/were really good but I would not consider core players to build around.

So if that’s any indication there’s a 50/50 chance Nico isn’t a true core player. That’s definitely scary.

Yes, frightening that this absolutely arbitrary distinction of 'true core player' versus 'not a true core player' that you just made up might be something to be afraid of, I guess? I just got told a guy who scored 550 goals in his career was not a core player, now you're coming in with 'true core player'. This is good, guys.

Again, Nico is one of the youngest players on that list.

 

[MadDevil]

Jesus Christ, we can't even be happy when we have two #1 overall picks.

 

[Camille the Eel]

As a lawyer I’ve had to report to clients with diffuse structure. Any moderate to big decision can get “round tabled” and as the lawyer I’m the one who gets the blame when someone else’s plan flops in court. I’ve always found that irksome. People who sit behind a desk and don’t have to face the consequences of their actions are too quick to offer less than fully thought out opinions in my experience and you can spend most of a round table explaining why a particular point of view is ill advised and it’s always a tight rope when telling the big blow hard who is also part of a client group they aren’t doing themselves any favors.

I see both sides of the debate but having lived it it ultimately comes down to trust. If the owners didn’t trust Shero anymore then he had to go but if that lack of trust was based on input from nameless faceless people who can complain about everything and never have to really be responsible for the real world outcome it’s on the owners to realize that as well.

Geeking out here on lawyer stuff but . . .

Trying a case, there are certain major decisions that counsel had to make for him of herself, or else withdraw. (If the court will let you). When you feel strongly enough about how things should be done that you can’t with a clear heart or head do things the way that others are trying to dictate. I was certainly in that position a few times, back when I did that stuff. Then there are other things that can be compromised. (But then trying cases is also largely an art; very much a function of personal instinct, intuition and style).

That could have been the case with Ray here.

But we just don’t know, do we. At this time we just don’t know the facts. Except that somehow the trust broke down, maybe on both sides.

 

[jkrdevil]

Can't wait to have Robo-GMs!!!!!!

It's coming

I mean a potato would probably rank in the top half of NHL GM’s.

 

[Guttersniped]

Yes, frightening that this absolutely arbitrary distinction of 'true core player' versus 'not a true core player' that you just made up might be something to be afraid of, I guess? I just got told a guy who scored 550 goals in his career was not a core player, now you're coming in with 'true core player'. This is good, guys.

Again, Nico is one of the youngest players on that list.

I don’t see the point of handwringing over Nico and Jack, yeah they aren’t Malkin and Crosby, we get it. They aren’t the problem.

Look at the Blackhawks, it’s unlikely they win without them drafting Keith and Seabrook 3-4 years earlier, plus some savvy trades and UFA signings. Two 1st overalls don’t gift you greatness by themselves. We need to hit this next draft’s first round hard and go from there.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I am pretty confident that Nico is going to have a Bergeron-lite career

60-70 points and elite defense and leadership qualities

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I can actually understand questioning what we have with Jack. He has shown flashes but I’m not actually sure how good he is or will be.

Nico is an absolute lock to be a quality 1st line player. He already is that. It would be abundantly clear if he was producing on the PP so his overall point totals would reflect that. He has been better at even strength since age 18 than many all star caliber players.

 

[devilsblood]

I can actually understand questioning what we have with Jack. He has shown flashes but I’m not actually sure how good he is or will be.

Nico is an absolute lock to be a quality 1st line player. He already is that. It would be abundantly clear if he was producing on the PP so his overall point totals would reflect that. He has been better at even strength since age 18 than many all star caliber players.

Does raise the question of: Should we expect a 1st line player to produce on the power play?

 

[My3Sons]

If you don’t build around Nico and Jack then you aren’t building around anyone at which point you do what? It seems pretty impatient to say that a just turned 21 year old and an 18 year old are not going to be cornerstone players when the experts who are paid to project those things say they will be.

Given the malaise of the entire team under Hynes and with whatever distraction Hall caused I think this season really starts post Hall and Hynes. That suggests Hughes is still a young player having to adjust to the league and has yet to find his stride while Nico has started to grow into a cornerstone player. Maybe he never becomes Bergeron but if he becomes the best player he is capable of being that’s probably still top notch.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Does raise the question of: Should we expect a 1st line player to produce on the power play?

Sure. That’s something that hopefully comes with experience. But I’d for damn sure rather have a young player that can drive play and produce at 5 on 5 than a player that doesn’t do much at even strength but is great on the PP.

I’d expect Jack to be the superior PP player of the two.

 

[devilsblood]

Amongst fwds with 300 minutes of 5v5 of toi, Nico is 99th in pts/60.

Amongst fwds with 40 minutes of PP time Nico is tied for 81st(with Crosby) in pts/60.

So this year, Nico is producing more like a top 2nd line player at 5v5, and middle of the league 1st line player on the PP.

I have no concerns with Nico as a core player.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I'll go further to say that I like Nico's game right now better than all but 13 or 14 of those players on that list. I think he'll be a cornerstone.
Maybe not MacKinnon, Seguin, Hossa category - but maybe a full tier above RNH etc around the Logan Couture-ish player...

 

[NJDevs26]

Looks like the Shero discussion has run its course.