do0glas
Registered User
- Jan 26, 2012
- 13,271
- 683
Most likely it's in an excel that can no longer be found
Hopefully someone gets my reference
Speculation: Sharks 2015-2016 Roster Talk: Rumors, Roster, Proposals. Part IV
- Thread starter Led Zappa
- Start date
- Status
Most likely it's in an excel that can no longer be found
Hopefully someone gets my reference
hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
- 32,410
- 12,620
Most likely it's in an excel that can no longer be found
Hopefully someone gets my reference
Blast from the past right there. What a bad way to provide credibility.
OrrNumber4
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2002
- 15,865
- 5,113
It was very simple stuff. Most of the work done by SJeasy, simply plotting increase/decrease in save percentage change vs. games played. I came in and changed it to starts, and adjusted it to era, since nowadays backup goalies generally play more.
do0glas
Registered User
- Jan 26, 2012
- 13,271
- 683
literally every single debate i got in with him ended like that. he would spout a fact and then cite a study that HE did that he cant show.
the guy had a lot of knowledge and i liked talking with him about individual players but larger sample size type debates were bad.
Ninja Hertl
formerly sharkohol
Vaasa
Registered User
He'd been having medical issues for a while I know and the last I heard he was stepping back from hockey a bit (or at least HFB). Never heard anything else after that, and that was years ago IIRC. Always enjoyed his posts (even when we didn't disagree). Him and Max where the main reasons I started posting here rather than just reading occasionally.
EDIT: Just as further info, it was March of 2012 and he specifically said "I am up there in years and not in the best of health." Hopefully his health improved and he's still kicking around, just with better things to do than post here.
hockeyball
Registered User
- Nov 10, 2007
- 21,552
- 886
That's too bad. We worked together on a couple of things over the years that got posted here and I think people found pretty interesting, he was a smart guy and a valuable poster whom I wish was still around :\
SactoShark
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Easy is a gentleman and a scholar. You don't have to agree with him to know that. Hope he is well.
OrrNumber4
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2002
- 15,865
- 5,113
literally every single debate i got in with him ended like that. he would spout a fact and then cite a study that HE did that he cant show.
the guy had a lot of knowledge and i liked talking with him about individual players but larger sample size type debates were bad.
He did have a ton of studies. He did a great job shredding some of the beliefs of the die-hard analytics guys.
He did do the thing where he cited a study he couldn't find, but many times he would also cite a study he DID do, which had come to a different conclusion than he thought.
Bingo.
Last edited by a moderator:
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
I do not recall this study but it certainly does not shock me.
Of all of the hockey I have watched over the years, I have noticed that goaltenders tend to do worse when they are over fatigued. PinkFloyd is one of the posters that I have noticed always getting angry when one of our goaltenders gets overworked. I don't think DeBoer seems like the type of coach to overwork a goaltender. I just think this season, he kind of had to make Jones start a ridiculous amount of games because our backup goaltender was the worst goalie in the NHL, and Jones has been a top-10 goalie.
Hope SJEasy is doing well. Of all of the posters that I have ever seen on this website, I truly believe he was the best. Above his posts though I just hope that he is in good health.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Ah, yep, that sounds right. I was trying to think of where I'd seen it and I was pretty sure it wasn't on twitter or the FTF of old. So it must have been here.
Most likely it's in an excel that can no longer be found
Hopefully someone gets my reference
FWIW he also PM'd me a few years ago saying that his health was not great but he was an awesome dude and he always had time to talk to me about hockey. I still have PMs of his saved as text docs on my computer.
[mod]
Last edited by a moderator:
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
- 4,441
- 2,588
So I want to throw this out to you guys, and see what your opinions are. Do you feel as I do, that Deboer is underutilizing Hertl? Should Hertl be playing top PP, extra attacker, both offensively, and when it's 6v5 for the opposition, and start working him on the PK?
Right now it seems Ward is the guy he uses in every one of those situations, outside of the top PP unit, and I cannot for the life of me understand why.
I'm setting my sights on Hertl since he was put on the top line, since it's the best data to determine how he actually plays with more minutes, better linemates, and tougher competition.
During this time, Hertl has been head and shoulders better than Ward. He scores way more Es (2.38pp/60 to 1.23) he possesses the puck far better (56.96corsi and 57.09fen to 51.64 and 51.97), he's better at face offs (66% to 45.60) and I could go on and on. The only stats Ward is better than Hertl is at currently, is hits and blocks per 60, and has a better turnover ratio, however Hertl is better at takeaways, just gives up more turnovers, but all of those are minuscule differences. For example hits are 2.90/60 for Ward and 2.02 for Hertl. Not a lot.
Defensively there is nothing to indicate Ward is better. Hertl and Ward have almost identical SATA and FATA stats(47.69 SATA and 34.78 FATA to 47.77 and 33.90), as I said earlier, they are pretty close in stuff like hitting, and blocking shots, along with the better face offs, which are huge in defensive situations IMO. Now in Wards favor he does get significantly worse ZS% ( 52.63 to 40.44) so some of his numbers could possibly rise if given more beneficial situations to play in.
Now the biggest difference for me, that jumped out at me when thinking about if Hertl should be given more responsibility in close games are his possession stats when behind or games that are close. Hertl has 65.19cor% and 67.26fen% while behind. 57.28cor% and 56.59fen% while close. Compared with 54.79 and 53.57, and 53.16 and 52.25, for Ward respectively. As a cherry on top, Hertl has 20%+ better face off percentages in close, and when trailing, games.
Last point is that for the pp. They have the same number of points, with Hertl getting less PP time, during this timeframe, meaning even there Hertl is better.
Now one thing to keep in mind, Hertl in most of the stats I provided actually leads to entire team, not just Ward. Hertl has better stats than every other player on this team, most notably in possession stats, outside of ES points/60, where Thornton is dominating, and Pavelski is a hairs breath better, while having an ever growing gap in their possession stats. I would argue, Hertl is our best forward, behind Thornton, right now. This is why I do not understand the hesitancy of our coach to play him in important minutes, and default to Ward. We need to start getting him that experience, before the bubble that is Thornton/Marleau and to some extent Pavs, no longer are on this team, and it's up to guys like Hertl and Cooch to try to fill those massive shoes.
The last fun fact for the day, since I'm in the mood for some stats it seems, is how good Hertl has been overall, compared to the league.
Using the same time frame, excluding yesterday/today's games, and amongst Forwards who played at least 20 games. Hertl is T46th in points. 2nd(behind Pavs) in +/-. T11th in goals. 16th in cf%. 7th cf% beh. 20th cf% close. 14th ff%. 2nd ff% beh. 26th ff% close. 7th CF. 11th CF rel/60. 24th CF beh. 7th CF close. 4th FATF. 7th FAT. 8th FAT rel/60.
To me this is pretty remarkable. Even more so when you consider that all but one of the players(winnik) with better corsi than Hertl, who also account for just about everyone ahead of him in the other possession categories, gets better ZS% than Hertl too. In short he's a possession monster.
Anyways sorry for the long post, and poor layout, I just wanted to give some props to Hertl, and also have a discussion about whether or not it's time to bump Ward off the on bat position, and start giving Hertl that responsibility instead. IMO it will lead to better outcomes.
Right now it seems Ward is the guy he uses in every one of those situations, outside of the top PP unit, and I cannot for the life of me understand why.
I'm setting my sights on Hertl since he was put on the top line, since it's the best data to determine how he actually plays with more minutes, better linemates, and tougher competition.
During this time, Hertl has been head and shoulders better than Ward. He scores way more Es (2.38pp/60 to 1.23) he possesses the puck far better (56.96corsi and 57.09fen to 51.64 and 51.97), he's better at face offs (66% to 45.60) and I could go on and on. The only stats Ward is better than Hertl is at currently, is hits and blocks per 60, and has a better turnover ratio, however Hertl is better at takeaways, just gives up more turnovers, but all of those are minuscule differences. For example hits are 2.90/60 for Ward and 2.02 for Hertl. Not a lot.
Defensively there is nothing to indicate Ward is better. Hertl and Ward have almost identical SATA and FATA stats(47.69 SATA and 34.78 FATA to 47.77 and 33.90), as I said earlier, they are pretty close in stuff like hitting, and blocking shots, along with the better face offs, which are huge in defensive situations IMO. Now in Wards favor he does get significantly worse ZS% ( 52.63 to 40.44) so some of his numbers could possibly rise if given more beneficial situations to play in.
Now the biggest difference for me, that jumped out at me when thinking about if Hertl should be given more responsibility in close games are his possession stats when behind or games that are close. Hertl has 65.19cor% and 67.26fen% while behind. 57.28cor% and 56.59fen% while close. Compared with 54.79 and 53.57, and 53.16 and 52.25, for Ward respectively. As a cherry on top, Hertl has 20%+ better face off percentages in close, and when trailing, games.
Last point is that for the pp. They have the same number of points, with Hertl getting less PP time, during this timeframe, meaning even there Hertl is better.
Now one thing to keep in mind, Hertl in most of the stats I provided actually leads to entire team, not just Ward. Hertl has better stats than every other player on this team, most notably in possession stats, outside of ES points/60, where Thornton is dominating, and Pavelski is a hairs breath better, while having an ever growing gap in their possession stats. I would argue, Hertl is our best forward, behind Thornton, right now. This is why I do not understand the hesitancy of our coach to play him in important minutes, and default to Ward. We need to start getting him that experience, before the bubble that is Thornton/Marleau and to some extent Pavs, no longer are on this team, and it's up to guys like Hertl and Cooch to try to fill those massive shoes.
The last fun fact for the day, since I'm in the mood for some stats it seems, is how good Hertl has been overall, compared to the league.
Using the same time frame, excluding yesterday/today's games, and amongst Forwards who played at least 20 games. Hertl is T46th in points. 2nd(behind Pavs) in +/-. T11th in goals. 16th in cf%. 7th cf% beh. 20th cf% close. 14th ff%. 2nd ff% beh. 26th ff% close. 7th CF. 11th CF rel/60. 24th CF beh. 7th CF close. 4th FATF. 7th FAT. 8th FAT rel/60.
To me this is pretty remarkable. Even more so when you consider that all but one of the players(winnik) with better corsi than Hertl, who also account for just about everyone ahead of him in the other possession categories, gets better ZS% than Hertl too. In short he's a possession monster.
Anyways sorry for the long post, and poor layout, I just wanted to give some props to Hertl, and also have a discussion about whether or not it's time to bump Ward off the on bat position, and start giving Hertl that responsibility instead. IMO it will lead to better outcomes.
AgentCooper
Registered User
Admittedly I haven't closely examined all the stats you posted, but...
Top PP? No. Our top PP is solid and it's nice to trot out a fresh Hertl for PP2.
Extra man? Sure. He certainly has more finish than Ward.
PK? No. I don't particularly like skill players killing penalties. It's exhausting and dangerous.
He's an awesome player, as your stats show, but I think he's utilized fine by "youth-hater" DeBoer. He'll continue to grow into greater roles as well.
Top PP? No. Our top PP is solid and it's nice to trot out a fresh Hertl for PP2.
Extra man? Sure. He certainly has more finish than Ward.
PK? No. I don't particularly like skill players killing penalties. It's exhausting and dangerous.
He's an awesome player, as your stats show, but I think he's utilized fine by "youth-hater" DeBoer. He'll continue to grow into greater roles as well.
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
- 4,441
- 2,588
Out of curiosity, if you don't play him on the top pp, or any PK time, what "greater roles" is he growing into in your mind. Seems like just extra attacker situations from what you said, which is hardly much growth.
Our PP IMO could need Hertl. Let's face it, Marleau is floundering to score lately, and Pavs hasn't been super sharp either.
I think removing Marleau, then using Hertl as the net front presence in place of Pavs might be beneficial to both Hertl and Pavs. Lately Pavs has been getting rocked in front of the net, and always seems to be on his ass. He's undoubtedly a good net front presence, but I think Hertl has better physical tools for the job, and has proven he's pretty great at tip/deflected goals, which is a big reason Pavs plays in front of the net a bunch.
This year 9 of Pavs 31 goals have come from tips or deflections or 29%. Hertl is 6 of 16 or 38%. Now I'm not specifically saying Hertl is better at tips, but just pointing out he's pretty good IFO the net. The next closest forward on the team is Thornton with 3 tips/deflections on 15 goals, or 20%. On the other hand Pavs has 14 of his 31 goals with wrist shots, to 5 for Hertl.
So IMO Hertl is better in front of the net, than taking wrist shots at this point, and is at least close to Pavs in ability to produce goals from tips/deflections. He is bigger, stronger, younger, and IMO faster than Pavs. These all help him better screen goalies, take punishment in front of the net, recover from the punishment, and win races to pucks to keep possession in the zone. Pavs on the other hand, has a much better wrist shot currently than Hertl, which is wasted when a lot of the PP your back is to the goalie because you're screening/waiting to tip or deflect pucks from the point. Also it allows him to play point, where if my memory serves me right, he was pretty great at in years past. He doesn't have to take as much punishment, or expend as much energy, keeping him healthier and more rested for now, and the playoffs, and allows him to use his wrister/slapper more which is better than either of Marleau or Hertl.
AgentCooper
Registered User
Top PP time in the future for sure, more overall TOI from double shifting in the bottom 6, moving back to center and getting the opportunity to use his faceoff skills more, further use in defensive situations if that part of his game keeps developing, potential leadership roles in the locker room. None of that seems pressing to me right now, but I expect to see all of it in the next 2 or 3 seasons.
hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
- 32,410
- 12,620
The 2nd unit has been pretty good Stentering and keepingthe zone but I have a feeling that it's mostly because of Donskoi. So if we were to move anybody, I think Donskoi would move up to the1st unit instead of Hertl since the 1st unit hashad some pretty messy zone entries for a while now. I can see where you're coming though.
@Dicdonya Hertl is clearly a much more talented player, and I'm sure as he grows, he will get more ice time.
With respect to the powerplay units, Ward isn't on the top PP unit either...they're both on the 2nd PP, and that's how it should be. That top PP unit has been together for awhile and works well.
As for the PK, Ward is a good PKer, and I don't know if throwing out a skill player like Hertl would be a great idea. With multiple other young good PKers (other than Ward and Zubrus since they're old) such as Tierney, Wingels, Karlsson, and Nieto, I don't see why Hertl needs to be used on the PK.
Also, obviously Hertl's FO% is better since he's a natural center.
With respect to the powerplay units, Ward isn't on the top PP unit either...they're both on the 2nd PP, and that's how it should be. That top PP unit has been together for awhile and works well.
As for the PK, Ward is a good PKer, and I don't know if throwing out a skill player like Hertl would be a great idea. With multiple other young good PKers (other than Ward and Zubrus since they're old) such as Tierney, Wingels, Karlsson, and Nieto, I don't see why Hertl needs to be used on the PK.
Also, obviously Hertl's FO% is better since he's a natural center.
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
- 4,441
- 2,588
I appreciate all the good responses so far, thank you all for the thoughtful responses.
I'm aware Ward isn't on the top PP, which I pointed out in my first post. However he seems to be the on deck player for just about any situation, and my main question is why?
Especially in offensive situations where he is clearly worse than Hertl. The PP idea I understand ,and respect the fact that we have a unit that's doing well overall, and have a lot of time played together over the years. However I also think about the future, and possible areas this team could benefit from some minor changes. One I think is the PP, as I pointed out in the post you quoted, there could be equal, or maybe even higher production in our pp with Hertl. Also taking some of the beating away from Pavelski, who IMO is showing signs of major wear and tear lately, could help in the long run.
I just see Hertl as being very competitive, and so far seems to have a very very good track record of elevating his game every time he's given a chance, and so I think it's natural to try and continue increasing his responsibility until we find his ceiling, which I don't think he's reached yet.
As for the PK I'm not really upset he's not on it, however it's really bad IMO to leave your best face off guy off of it, when we know it's one of the most important parts of any special teams situation. Maybe they could give him the Thornton treatment on the PK. Have him take the faceoff and get off as soon as able. Hertl said in an interview lately that he was happy to take the few faceoffs he's gotten lately, so that he knows he can continue winning them. He's right, if we have any plans of moving him back to center at some point we need to make sure he gets as many faceoffs as we can while he's playing wing in the meantime.
Also I'm not saying he specifically replaces Ward on the PK, there are far worse PK'ers on this team. I was just pointing out that he's just as good defensively as Ward, by any metric I have seen, and even though the PK is extremely grueling, we aren't talking about a 30+ year old superstar that we need to limit his ice, and get concerned about adding too much extra wear and tear. Cooch is just as important to this team, and Pavs too, and although Pavs has gotten less PK time he's still out there. I don't think the risk of possible injuries is a good enough reason for Hertl to get basically zero PK time, while other equally, or more important players are given that risk.
Anyways I'll be interested to see who slots in for Cooch tonight on the pp, if he's out, it's pretty apparent who I vote for.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Last time I checked, Hertl was averaging around the same even strength ice time as other top forwards. There is zero reason to mess with our #1PP unit. Ward has shown himself to be pretty clutch in 6v5 situations. And we have a ton of great PKing fowards. I'm 100% a-okay with Hertl's ice time.
I wonder what happens this offseason. I guess it depends on how we do in the playoffs. The real interesting thing is what to do with Burns. Do you try to extend him where he could easily demand 7.5+ a year or do you trade him if you get a good offer and what constitutes a good offer for a high end offensive defenseman in the final year of his contract.
Ward is clutch when we need the goal, but if we're winning his hands turn to stone. He's like the opposite of Thomas Vanek.
TealManV
A man has said
This is something that I've thought about as well. It really does depend on what happens in the playoffs. Obviously his value will be at its highest with the numbers he's putting up. But, I believe there's only two viable options this summer; sign Burns to an extension or trade him at the draft.
If we go deep and have a good run, I'd be very interested in signing Burns to an extension, but it's tough to figure out the value. Does he deserve to be the highest paid player on the team? Should he make more than Thornton, Pavs and Logan? I know what he'd make on the open market ($7.5+), but I don't believe that should impact our negotiations. I believe he could easily make $7.5, but I'd have a hard time paying him more than Pavs and Logan at $6mil per. $6.5 is probably the middle ground of a "home town discount", but once again, should we pay a 31 year old Burns more than #8 & #39?
That brings us to the next option, trade him at the draft. With Burns' value at its highest, we could end up getting a monster haul in return. If we end up blowing it in the first round of the playoffs or extension negotiations are far apart, I'd be very tempted to bring in a 1st rounder and a blue chip prospect or 2. Trading Burns and Marleau at the draft would instantly restock our picks and improve our prospect pool.
I know that there's a third option, which is to go into next season with Burns on the last year of his contract, but I don't feel very good about that. It's opens up speculation all season about the potential of him being moved at the deadline or walking in FA. After all the negative rumors last season, it's best for us to avoid that route.
Limekiller
Registered User
Well, I guess it all depends what we're offered. I still think it's possible that, due to the McLellan connection (and the fact he is an absolute perfect fit for what they need), that Edmonton makes us a Godfather style "offer we can't refuse" for him, and offers something like Hall/RNH + their 1st round pick this year. Barring such an trade deal, offer him whatever he wants, within reason. I wouldn't quibble at 5 years at 7m AAV, for example. He's worth it. Besides, as much as he supposedly like it here, I think he'd probably be reasonable in his contract demands, and take less than he'd get on the open market.
I have the same feelings about Vlasic when it comes time to do his next extension too. Barring a godlike offer, you give him whatever he wants, pretty much. I think Vlasic's going to be easily over 6m AAV his next contract, especially if he keeps his offense up where it is now, and hovers around the 50pt/yr mark. He is on such a bargain contract right now, he's pretty seriously underpaid given how important he is to us.
- Status
Ad
Latest posts
-
Post-Game Talk: Hit em with the 4 like AM34. Leafs lose 4th straight game 7 to Boston: 2-1- Latest: Seath The Scaleless
-
