GDT: Sens & Habs Take it Outside | 7PM EST on CBC

Tnuoc Alucard

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Sep 23, 2015
8,080
1,920
Exactly. So our chances in reality are a lot better than that "9%" stat which is mostly BS.

Today, the Senator's chances of making the Playoffs sit at 9.49%, based on game results from last night.

You may want to dismiss this "Stat" as BS, so I'll have to ask you, how long have you followed the stats on ClubSportsStats?

How accurate have they been over the years?

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats
 

Tnuoc Alucard

🇨🇦🔑🧲✈️🎲🥅🎱🍟🥨🌗
Sep 23, 2015
8,080
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They can move pretty quickly.


Any team's "Chances of making the Playoffs odds" are not a direct result of how that one teams plays .......... it's also based on the other teams in the League, and weighted based on each team teams schedule, and who plays who how many times in the division and conference in relationship to the playoff spots.

Here is a little insight on how these odds are calculated.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/h/TeamTopp_pg_g_prestrophy_nhllotteryw_l_ot_2_2_2_0_1_1_1.html



What is this? - Sports Club Stats
 

NyQuil

Big F$&*in Q
Jan 5, 2005
95,808
60,168
Ottawa, ON
Any team's "Chances of making the Playoffs odds" are not a direct result of how that one teams plays .......... it's also based on the other teams in the League, and weighted based on each team teams schedule, and who plays who how many times in the division and conference in relationship to the playoff spots.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/h/TeamTopp_pg_g_prestrophy_nhllotteryw_l_ot_2_2_2_0_1_1_1.html

Yeah, it's been around for quite some time.

If you think they are absolutely predictive at this point, they aren't.

Teams that go on streaks or slumps find their odds swinging quite wildly.

I'm not saying the Senators are going to make the playoffs, I just think the metric is a bit fuzzy.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,856
9,793
Montreal, Canada
Boucher could play Chabot with Karlsson. He has plenty of options superior to Oduya

I don't know bout that... Chabot is 20 y/o and has very little experience. I wouldn't want to put too much pressure on him too fast, we have to develop him correctly as he is key for the future of the team. Oduya is just a cheap stop gap after losing a veteran like Methot.

Problem with Oduya is that you can't expect him to be solid every game. The guy is 36 y/o and should be sheltered on the 3rd pair. It's not his fault that he is being asked to play over his head at this point in time of his career. Don't know how much you can fault Dorion, it depends on what was the asking price to re-acquire Methot from Vegas. But I think there was a period of time that he wasn't possible anyway

Claesson or Harpur playing with EK is asking them too much too. Boucher is running out of options, playing top pairing in the NHL is not the easiest task. Maybe he should :

Phaneuf-Karlsson
Chabot-Ceci
Oduya-Claesson

Let's forget total points, for the sake of argument, and focus on playoff chances.

Look, I'm just being realistic about Ottawa's (9.2%) playoff chances.

I repeat, this % of playoff chances is silly at this point of the season... Just over 1/3 of the season played for C's

I think it's a little early to be doing math for a playoff spot, maybe thats just me though.

Of course... How long have we followed the NHL? It's a given.

Whoever finishes third in the Atlantic won’t be a tough test for Toronto in round 1. It won’t be Buffalo or Florida, so it’s Boston, Montreal or Ottawa. Detroit aren’t as bad as Florida and Buffalo, but they’re not a good team. Boston is probably the best in the division after Tampa and Toronto.

The fact that Ottawa may have a chance to finish third, shows how crappy this division really is.

Ottawa should be battling with Toronto for the 2nd spot but they have been really under-performing in that 13 games stretch (1-10-2). If they are really out of it, then things should go well as they played 0.694 the rest of the season (10-3-5). They currently have 29 points and if they play 0.694 in the remaining 51 games, that gives them 100 points on the whole season. Not saying it's likely to happen but it's possible. One thing for sure, they have to play solid hockey all the way, no more slumps. The margin for error is thin.

If our goalies are more solid than they were during the first 20-something games, if EK and Ryan injuries are behind them and if the players believe in Boucher's system again, then everything is possible. Need Duchene to produce more too and team chemistry to be much better that it has been since the trade.
 
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Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
12,833
4,416
GTA or the UK
Today, the Senator's chances of making the Playoffs sit at 9.49%, based on game results from last night.

You may want to dismiss this "Stat" as BS, so I'll have to ask you, how long have you followed the stats on ClubSportsStats?

How accurate have they been over the years?

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

They are pretty reliable and consistent. I know The Athletic did a piece about them last year, and how they were a pretty strong predictor, without really knowing what variables it took into equation.

Even without those odds though - the Senators are in tough. 10 points isn't an insurmountable gap, but jumping 5 teams is very, very difficult to do in today's NHL, given how many three point games there are and the fact that 3 pointers tend to become more frequent in the second half of the season.
 

Knave

Registered User
Mar 6, 2007
21,647
2,234
Ottawa
They are pretty reliable and consistent. I know The Athletic did a piece about them last year, and how they were a pretty strong predictor, without really knowing what variables it took into equation.

Even without those odds though - the Senators are in tough. 10 points isn't an insurmountable gap, but jumping 5 teams is very, very difficult to do in today's NHL, given how many three point games there are and the fact that 3 pointers tend to become more frequent in the second half of the season.

They fluctuate wildly. I would only trust those numbers with like ~20 games left.
 

PoutineSp00nZ

Electricity is really just organized lightning.
Jul 21, 2009
20,087
5,693
Ottawa
Pretty sure the Sens were at less than 10 % before they went on the hamburgler run.

Things can change very quickly
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,837
11,153
51 games left, 29 points

if we go 34-17...... that's 97 points

So we need to 2 out of every 3 games the rest of the way.
 

Back in Black

All Sports would be great if they were Hockey
Jan 30, 2012
9,929
2,118
In the Penalty Box
What a great weekend that was! :thumbu: Hats off to the NHL & our Ottawa Senators!

:nhl
NHL_2017_2018_Senators.png
 
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BigRig4

Registered User
Feb 22, 2014
3,058
1,084
We've got two chances to beat Boston at the end of December. If we can win both that would be huge.
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
51,167
9,909
I wonder what they had to say on the Habs board.........:sarcasm:

Nothing interesting.

That city and those fans cannot ever say anything nice about Ottawa/Gatineau.

It is finally catching on in Gatineau at last: people are starting to get fed up with "MTL is so much better than this dump".
 

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