Toggle sidebar

Half-Assed GDT: senators vs just 1 goalie

Alklha

Registered User
Sep 7, 2011
16,875
2,751
I'm not sure that you write off Karlsson's terrible +/- as being down to a bad goaltending when he is on the ice.

I'm thinking of the last game when Sobotka comfortably established position on Karlsson and drew a penalty, what should have been a penalty shot. Past years we wouldn't have seen that because Karlsson would have recovered position. If you are continually giving up premium scoring chances, then the goalies sv% is going to suffer.

I've not seen enough of the Senators to say whether it is bad luck or terrible team defense, but Karlsson certainly isn't skating as well as he has in the past. He's still putting up points, but he isn't the dominant force that we've come to expect.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lakewood

Alklha

Registered User
Sep 7, 2011
16,875
2,751
Sounds like both teams are going with 13 forwards & 7 defensemen.

Edit: Or 11 forwards & 7 defensemen. One of the two.
 
BleedBlue14

BleedBlue14

UrGeNcY
Feb 9, 2017
6,082
4,561
St. Louis
67Blues said:
He isn't tough enough. We need someone like:

Parayko for Orpik
Click to expand...

Let's go ahead and just keep it in house.. we'll trade Parayko from the 2nd pairing, Paajarvi from the roster and Thorburn from the lineup for Bortuzzo from the 3rd pairing, Kostin from the AHL and a water bottle from the press box.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Note in Ky
kimzey59

kimzey59

Registered User
Aug 16, 2003
5,696
1,976
Shwabeal said:
Neither team is dressing goalies? :sarcasm:
Click to expand...

Given how both teams have been playing lately; why would you force your Goalie to play behind them?
That almost qualifies as cruel and unusual punishment.
Plus, having to actually get back and cover the net might actually get these guys skating. If nothing else, they'll have to go back to get the puck at some point.

(yes; I know it was a typo/brain fart but I have seen this tactic used in minor League's to send players a message)
 
thedustman

thedustman

Registered User
Jun 19, 2013
4,200
1,246
it would be pretty odd to start a game with both goalies on the bench, but i think it is time to do that.
 
Brian39

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,156
13,131
Alklha said:
I'm not sure that you write off Karlsson's terrible +/- as being down to a bad goaltending when he is on the ice.

I'm thinking of the last game when Sobotka comfortably established position on Karlsson and drew a penalty, what should have been a penalty shot. Past years we wouldn't have seen that because Karlsson would have recovered position. If you are continually giving up premium scoring chances, then the goalies sv% is going to suffer.

I've not seen enough of the Senators to say whether it is bad luck or terrible team defense, but Karlsson certainly isn't skating as well as he has in the past. He's still putting up points, but he isn't the dominant force that we've come to expect.
Click to expand...

His expected +/- is -1.3. Expected +/- is a measure of what a player's +/- would be if every shot went in at the average rate of shots from that location. It is quite literally taking quality of shots allowed into consideration and it puts him at -1.3 while his actual +/- is -22. Corsica has his expected 5 on 5 goals against at 31.72 while his actual 5 on 5 goals against is 50. Every metric that takes quality of chances allowed into consideration points towards him being on the ice for significantly more goals against than he should have.

Even if half the shots taken while Karlsson is on the ice are high danger chances, .860 is a bad SV%. I don't know how much you have watched the Sens this year, but the eye test also says that Anderson has been absolutely god awful. Anderson is currently at a -11.97 goals saved above average through 34 games. That means that he has allowed 12 more goals than a league average goalie would allow against the same shot distribution. That's dead last in the NHL. Among goalies with 20+ games, his low danger SV% is 2nd worst in the league, his medium danger SV% is 5th worst and his high danger SV% is 5th worst.

I'm not just writing off a bad plus minus due to my gut. I'm writing it off because every statistic that actually accounts for quality of shots allowed suggests that his +/- is squarely on the goalie and not on him.

Again, I'm not trying to say he is the same Karlsson. He's absolutely lost a step, but he is still currently playing like a top 20 D man in the league instead of being head and shoulders the best defenseman we've seen in the last 5 years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Alklha
hullderko

hullderko

Registered User
Apr 21, 2015
834
716
Watched an exciting game between TOR and COL last night, hoping this one will be 20% as entertaining. It's a HOME game boys - wreck them in the first 5 min of the game for once!
 
Blanick

Blanick

Winter is coming
Sep 20, 2011
15,871
10,823
St. Louis
I fully expect the boys to come out flying to start the game. That isn't what I am worried about, I am worried what will happen if Ottawa ends up scoring the first goal. I want to see how they respond to adversity IN GAME.

A lot the of the right things were said now they need to come out and show it.
 
Brian39

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,156
13,131
hullderko said:
Watched an exciting game between TOR and COL last night, hoping this one will be 20% as entertaining. It's a HOME game boys - wreck them in the first 5 min of the game for once!
Click to expand...

My gut is telling me that this is either going to be a 5-3 or 5-4 game.
 

Novacain

Registered User
Feb 24, 2012
4,362
4,875
Just a minor thing to give everyone a minor smile: The Central might be stacked beyond belief, but the Blackhawks are in last place in the division by 7 points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thedustman
TheDizee

TheDizee

Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
Apr 5, 2014
20,020
12,797
sens always beat us at home in a shootout after we blow a lead so expect more of the same
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom