Kentucky Derby preview, Horses listed include their lifetime records (Career starts followed by 1st-2nd-3rd place finishes).
Track conditions could change things and certain the bias of earlier races can alter opinions. But here goes:
1. Firenze Fire (9 4-1-0). Trainer: Jason Servis. Jockey: Paco Lopez. Odds: 50-1.
The dreaded number one post. Firenze Fire had questions whether he could go the distance in this race based on pedigree and now has the misfortune in being in a post that hasn't produced a winner since 1985. Paco Lopez has the reputation to gun horses and is aggressive. He is in his first Kentucky Derby. This horse has much to overcome to hit the board.
2. Free Drop Billy (8 2-3-2). Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Robby Albarado. Odds: 30-1.
This colt seemed to regress as the prep season advanced and others progressed. He had an opportunity to be a factor but seemed to shy from the spotlight. Much will have to change for him to be a player in this race. Robby Albarado is a Dale Romans staple but there are plenty of gifted riders in this race and while still capable Albarado has seen better days. And one last note, the #2 post has not produced a winning horse in this race since the remarkable Affirmed won in 1978.
3. Promises Fulfilled (5 3-0-1). Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Corey Lanerie. Odds: 30-1.
Dale Romans has horses in consecutive posts. That shouldn't attract too much attention but if Promises Fulfilled does what is expected he could be on the lead as they reach the quarter pole. From there, the cavalry should take control. Corey Lanerie is a solid jock when riding in the state of Kentucky. He broke his maiden at Churchill in his first race. The horse to hit the board would be another story.
4. Flameaway (9 5-2-0). Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano Odds: 30-1
You should like how this horse has run if you bet him in the past. Don't overlook the horse. Jose Lezcano has a reputation for being a better turf rider than on dirt but he has a battler, a scrapper in this 3-year-old. I doubt he wins but he could be a value play.
5. Audible (5 4-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 8-1
A star from the Todd Pletcher barn. Why did John Velazquez opt for Vino Rosso when he had a choice? That should send a signal since Velazquez is as sly as any jockey. Javier Castellano has been named North America's top jockey in four of the last five years, snapped in 2017. The odds are surprising to me. I though he'd be closer to 5-to-1. He has been in my top five most of the prep season. This is perhaps the best post position for any of Pletcher's four runners in the race, too.
6. Good Magic. (5 2-2-1) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Odds: 12-1.
Chad Brown is the Eclipse Award winner for Trainer of the Year. At 12-to-1, many people will bet this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves more than any. Jose Ortiz was named Outstanding Jockey of the Year for 2017 and deserved it. The horse's training at Churchill has been flattering. He has been in my top five Derby bets since his first race and has the talent to win -- he has Curlin as a sire -- even though that morning line is disconcerting. For whatever oddity, the 6 post has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 1993 when Sea Hero, currently the oldest Derby winner alive, was victorious.
7. Justify (3 3-0-0). Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith. Odds: 3-1.
The household names of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith has a precocious runner who is a perfect 3-for-3. The knock is the small fields in which he has succeeded. The Derby is a different game. He has 19 competitors which is more than the combined total of what he has defeated. The talent is without flaw. The inexperience could be a concern. He was unraced as a 2-year-old. No horse has won this race without running as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.. Another in my top five since day one. If you want a favorite, this is the likely option. If you want a price on top, look elsewhere.
8. Lone Sailor (8 1-3-1). Trainer: Tom Amoss. Jockey: James Graham. Odds: 50-1
The horse has been training exceptionally. However one win in eight races is ominous. He could be a stalker but too many horses with talent will be ahead of him.
9. Hofburg. (3 1-1-0). Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Odds: 20-1.
Another lightly race colt. An exceptional sire in Tapit. Bill Mott is a good one. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is probably more aggressive than his brother but also one of the best riders in the land. The colt could be a closer and that has the potential to factor in exotic wagering. I don't see him winning but he should be evaluated with respect. Much has been made of the #1 spot not winning the Derby since 1985 but of posts 1 through 10, number 9 has the longest drought with 1972's Riva Ridge.
10. My Boy Jack (10-3-3-2). Trainer: Keith Desormeaux. Jockey: Kent Desormeaux. Odds: 20-1.
He could factor as a closer. Kent Desormeaux has been around the block a few times. The colt is 2-for-5 on dirt as he tried turf just as often. I don't see him winning but hitting the board is a possibility.
11. Bolt d’Oro (6 4-1-1). Trainer: Mick Ruiz. Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Odds: 8-1.
He was the top pick for many handicappers early on in preps. I never had him in my top five but he is still gifted and can top the ticket. He will have three riders the last four races. Not many thought he'd be 8-to-1 a few weeks ago. Has he already run his best race? That has yet to be determined. One other note: when horses enter gates, the 1 and 11 are the first set entered. Which means the horse in the 11 slot waits longer than any other (along with the 1). Some horses don't like that.
12. Enticed (6 3-1-1). Trainer: Kieran McLaughlin. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Odds: 30-1.
My sentimental pick. Junior Alvarado winning the KY Derby would be just under Calvin Borel and Chris Antley winning. Garrett Gomez, too, if he had ever won a Triple Crown race despite 13 Breeders Cup wins which is still surpassed by only three riders each of whom had many more starts). But back to this horse who was slighted if not robbed (thoughts of many) in the Wood Memorial by the decision of the New York stewards (John Velazquez is later fined but not DQ'd for the winning ride). Enticed could be fractured because of that race. If he wins, that would be the ultimate retribution. Unfortunately, much would have to go his way. The only time out of the money in six starts was when Alvarado did not ride. No #12 has not been in the money (top three) since the nearly impeccable Afleet Alex in 2005.
13. Bravazo (8 3-1-1). Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey: Luis Contreras. Odds: 50-1.
Gary Stevens was replaced by Luis Contreras. Wayne Lukas still has the ability to shock. Bravazo has run at Churchill more than any other entry with three prior starts. I don't see much of an impression with this horse. Then again, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby didn't he?! Birdstone won the Belmont, didn't he?! If you subscribe to the theory that anything is possible this could be your play.
14. Mendelssohn (7 4-1-0). Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Odds: 5-1
No European-trained runner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Most necessary boxes have been checked. He was purchased as a yearling for $3,000,000 and if he wins this race would be the most expensive Derby winner. He handled the travel with his Breeders' Cup win. He handled turf-to-dirt where he is 2-for-2 lifetime on the latter surface. The pace may be an issue if he sits mid-pack or deeper. Another post position number facing a dismal history, the #14 has not won a KY Derby since 1961 but that is more coincidental and curiosity than anything of significance.
15. Instilled Regard (7 2-2-1) . Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer. Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke. Odds: 50-1
I don't see the horse making much of an imprint. He seems to have tailed from his earlier starts. Capable young rider and a wily veteran trainer but there is too much talent in this race to overcome.
16. Magnum Moon (4 4-0-0) Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Luis Saez. Odds: 6-1.
One of two horses (also Justify) who was unraced as a 2-year-old. His connections face the daunting fact that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby as an unraced 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Still, he is a perfect 4-for-4 this year including the gate-to-wire performance in the important Arkansas Derby. One of my top five runners since his first race. Luis Saez is getting close to the top of the heap in North America. He is that good.
17. Solomini (6 1-3-2). Trainer: Bob Baffert. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Odds: 30-1.
Good rider, great trainer and don't be too surprised if everyone puts it together here. A win is unlikely but he has the talent which did not generate the results some thought capable in the prep season. I doubt I will use him but he could be a contender for exotics. While the #17 post hasn't always been occupied, it has the dreaded stat to have never produced a KY Derby winner.
18. Vino Rosso (5 3-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez .Odds: 12-1.
I said it then and I will say it now, I was surprised to see John Velazquez choose this horse as his KY Derby starter. That decision should not be overlooked because his intuitiveness as a rider and related ability to scout means he could sense something special. Not the best post, and even though Johnny V. likes the horse more so than Audible (and others) I am on board with those who think he should have been DQ'd in the Wood. That said, he gained valuable experience in the race. Terrific value if he is at 12-to-1.
19. Noble Indy (4 3-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Odds: 30-1.
When Quip was a late defection, that opened the services of Florent Geroux to anyone looking for a Derby mount. Talk about hitting a home run. Not a desired post position but everything else seems favorable. If this is Pletcher's "fourth best" horse in the race, that is not exactly damning with faint praise but a win seems unlikely at this juncture.
20. Combatant (7 1-3-1). Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Odds: 50-1.
A horse I liked early in the preps but trouble seemed to follow. He can close but I don't see him making too much of an impact based on the skills of others. The rider-trainer connection is very successful as a team.
Also Eligible: Blended Citizen. Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Kyle Frey Odds: 50-1