Horse Racing: Sat. Belmont's card (post #1134), NBC coverage begins at 4:30 pm ET

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

A look at the possible 2018 Kentucky Derby field (not in true alphabetical order due to changes). The ranking is based on the Derby point system. A maximum field of 20 is expected.

Horse	Rank	Sire	Possible Jockey	Trainer
Audible	3	Into Mischief	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher
Bolt d' Oro	6	Medaglia d' Oro	Victor Espinoza	Mick Ruis
Bravazo	12	Awesome Again		Wayne Lukas
Combatant	19	Scat Daddy	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	Steve Asmussen
Flameaway	10	Scat Daddy	Jose Lezcano	Mark Casse
Free Drop Billy	15	Union Rags	Robby Albarado.	Dale Romans
Firenze Fire	18	Poseidon's Warrior	Paco Lopez	Jason Servis
Enticed	7	Medaglia d'Oro	Junior Alvarado	Kiaran McLaughlin
Instilled Regard	20	Arch		Jerry Hollendorfer
Good Magic	2	Curlin	Jose Ortiz	Chad Brown
Hofburg	17	Tapit	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Bill Mott
Justify	9	Scat Daddy	Mike Smith	Bob Baffert
Lone Sailor	16	Majestic Warrior	James Graham	Thomas Amoss
Magnum Moon	1	Malibu Moon	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher
Mendelssohn	8	Scat Daddy	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien
My Boy Jack	13	Creative Cause	Kent Desormeaux	Keith Desormeaux
Noble Indy	4	Take Charge Indy	M. Franco or T.Gaffalione	Todd Pletcher
Promises Fulfilled	14	Shackelford	Corey Lanerie	Dale Romans
Solomini	11	Curlin	Flavien Prat	Bob Baffert
Snapper Sinclair	21	City Zip		Steve Asmussen
Vino Rosso	5	Curlin	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher

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Notes:

• JOCKEYS: Red under jockey means the rider has been confirmed.
• RANK: Ranking is based on the points system devised for the Kentucky Derby prep races (listed in the opener of this thread). Gronkowski made the cut based on winning the European division.
• HOW MANY WILL BE ENTERED? The field is expected to have 20 runners and by rule that is the maximum size but not the mandatory number. Two horses are currently "also eligible" which means the connections have the option to be added to the Derby if one of the top 20 is unable to race.
• WHAT JOCKEYS REMAIN AVAILABLE?: Many. Among those without mounts are Joel Rosario, Joe Bravo, Julien Leparoux, Calvin Borel and Mario Gutierrez. My assumption is Tyler Gaffalione or Manny Franco will be the choice on Noble Indy depending on Todd Pletcher's other options. Gary Stevens, who rode Bravazo, is unlikely to have any mount.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

CHARLES TOWN CLASSIC STAKES (Grade II)

Where: Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races, Charles Town, West Virginia
When: Saturday, April 21, 2018, Race 11
Time: 5:36 pm Eastern Time
Distance: 1 1/8 mile
Purse: $1,200,000
Age: 4-year-olds and up
Television: Fox Sports 2 from 4:00 - 6:00 pm Eastern Time
Radio: HRRN www.horseracingradio.net; Sirius 219/XM 20 beginning at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.​

[TR][TH]PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Fear the Cowboy (KY)	Luis Negron	118	Efren Loza, Jr.	9/2
2	You're to Blame (KY)	Joe Bravo	118	Todd A. Pletcher	8/1
3	Discreet Lover (FL)	J. D. Acosta	120	Uriah St. Lewis	10/1
4	Something Awesome (ON)	Edgar S. Prado	120	Jose Corrales	8/1
5	War Story (KY)	Javier Castellano	118	Jorge Navarro	5/2
6	Diversify (NY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	118	Richard A. Violette, Jr.	8/5
7	Afleet Willy (KY)	Jomar Torres	118	Claudio A. Gonzalez	12/1

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 20, 2018

Aqueduct (New York):

• And on this day the seas parted. Junior Alvarado rode a 36-to-1 bomb to a second place finish and looked fantastic. John Velazquez finished third. And then it happened. Another objection filed by Velazquez against Alvarado. Here we go again. But this time, the anticipated decision was not made. Johnny V.'s claim was voided. Alvarado remained. That could be a first considering the talents. Well done, New York. Well done, Junior! $21.00 in the middle.

​

• Irad Ortiz, Jr. won three more times. He is the winningest rider in North America this year with 125 victories, 13 more than Luis Saez. They are the lone riders to win 100+ times in 2018.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Bug rider Weston Hamilton won three times. Hamilton is two wins behind Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. for the lead at the meet.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Antonio Gallardo. the leading rider at the meet, increased his win total by three.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• The $.20 Rainbow Six exceeded $500,000.
• Race 5: A 10-to-1 1 morning line went off the 3-to-2 favorite and won.
• Smart ride by Tyler Gaffalione in winning the finale.
• Nik Juarez and Emisael Jaramillo rode three victories, the latter was involved in a dead heat in race 9 which was three across the wire:

​

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Jose Ortiz won three times.
• Larry Jones won the finale and it paid $17.60. A good trainer, a favorite for a long time.
• In race 8, Adam Beschizza, who won earlier, was dead last entering the stretch but finished second with the longest shot on the board at 24-to-1.
• Brian Hernandez, Jr. won consecutive races including the Grade III DoubleDogDare:

​

Indiana Grand (Indiana):

• In the finale, a quarter horse race, Botticelli was sent off at 27-to-1, won but was then DQ'd. A rare hunch play based on name and that is the result of what can happen.

Santa Anita (California):

• Asa Espinoza, the 18-year-old nephew to Victor Espinoza, and a 10-pound bug, won for the 7th time in his young career. The 28-to-1 was the second highest price on the board and topped a $.50 trifecta in race 7 that paid in excess of $1,300.
• The $2 Pick 6 was hit for $79,000+.
• The $.50 Pick 5 was hot for $23,000+.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Race 4 at Parx just had a dead heat for 2nd. One of the horses which finished second claimed foul against the winner. The objection was upheld and BOTH of the second place horses were elevated to a dead heat win position.

Just like your research showed @MiamiScreamingEagles

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Race 4 at Parx just had a dead heat for 2nd. One of the horses which finished second claimed foul against the winner. The objection was upheld and BOTH of the second place horses were elevated to a dead heat win position.

Just like your research showed @MiamiScreamingEagles

Oddly, I thought about your question and scenario when this result transpired. It was to be part of my daily summary which I will do at another point. Good stuff. I learned something, too.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 21, 2018

All I can say is this was one of the most astonishing days of racing in quite some time. Multiple bombs all over the map. If you could catch some, you were golden.

Aqueduct (New York):

• Manny Franco won four times and finished 4-1-2 in 9 starts.
• David Cohen had a very good day at 8 2-2-2.
• Race 10: The $2 Pick 4 was a jaw-dropping $95,139.40. The $2 Pick 6 was so difficult it paid out to those who hit 4 legs.
• Race 9: In the $100,000 feature, Manny Franco won for the 4th time and with a 23-to-1 bomb. Sometimes, the hot hand trumps the tangibles. The $1 Pick 3 was a staggering $27,000+.
• Race 7: David Cohen drove home a $127.50 winner to the amazement of many. The $2 tri paid over $1,800. The $2 Pick 3 was a remarkable $18,300.
• The meet closes tomorrow (Sunday). The track is dark until November 2. Belmont is the prime New York attraction beginning Saturday.

Parx (Pennsylvania):

• Race 8: The winner paid $76.80. The $2 tri paid over $4,800. The $2 pick 4 paid over $13,000. The $2 Pick 3 paid more than $2,600.
• Race 4: Now we know for sure what happens in the rare event one horse in a dead heat puts up an objection against the unofficial winner and has the appeal go in the claimant's favor. Both horses in the place position get put up for the victory. File under: once in a blue moon.

Charles Town (West Virginia):

• Irad Ortiz, Jr, the winningest rider in North America in 2018, won his first three starts and finished the day 5 3-0-0. The highlight was a natural hat trick starting in race 5.
• Race 11: In the Charles Town Classic, a very playable Something Awesome (Edgar Prado/Jose Corrales) may have shocked some at 9-to-1. The 7-year-old Ontario-bred gelding has won five of his last six and is 9-for-24 lifetime. Perhaps some questioned Prado's ability in a race with Javier Castellano, Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr. but this was a good opportunity to play a price and it worked for whomever took the leap.

​

Laurel (Maryland):

• Race 11: Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. retook the meet lead with his 43rd victory. The $2 pick 5 paid over $87,000. The $2 Pick 4 paid over $2,200. The $1 super returned over $16,000.
• Race 10: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $8,600.
• Race 7: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $3,900. A 14-to-1 edged a 1-to-5 in a $100,000 mile turf race.
• Race 5: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $2,600.
• Race 3: Weston Hamilton and dad Steve Hamilton finished 1st and 2nd. The win was the son's 42nd which temporarily tied him atop the leader board at the meet with Jorge Vargas, Jr. at 42.
• Race 1: The day began with a $41.20 winner ridden by bug Weston Hamilton.
• Parx's (Philadelphia area) leading rider Frankie Pennington made a visit to Laurel and won twice in six starts.
• Veteran well-traveled rider Paco Lopez won two of the five stakes races. He had three starts.

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Kudos to the track for appealing to a younger audience. The place appeared packed, stylish and glamorous.
• Race 10: The runner up paid $46.60 to place. The $.50 Pick 5 returned more than $23,000 or over $92,000 for a $2 bet. The $1 superfecta was a stunning $51,000. The $.50 Pick 4 returned more than $3,000.
• Race 9: In the $250,000 Grade II Elkhorn, a mild stunner with One Go All Go (Chris Landeros/Charles Dickey) paid $21.20 for the victory.

​

• Race 7: An entertaining race in which a 24-to-1 piloted by Corey Lanerie topped a 9-to-1 ridden by Adam Beschizza. The $.50 Pick 3 paid over $2,200. Lanerie won twice today including race 6.
• Race 5: The $2 Pick 5 paid over $73,000. Adam Beschizza/Michael Matz teamed for the win and for the first time with a starter that had raced exclusively in California under the guidance of John Shirreffs.
• Race 3: Aubrie Green, the mother to three children, won for the third time this year in her 60th start. At 35-to-1, the win paid $53.40.
• Trainer Brad Cox won for the third straight day at the track with just four starters. No easy feat. He is 4 3-0-0 in that time. Combined with his starters at Indiana and Aqueduct, he is 10 5-3-0 the last three days.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• This may have been the track with the biggest shockers. Nine of the 12 races paid $10 or more.
• The $.20 Rainbow Six paid out over $20,000. The carryover is more than $522,000.
• Race 9: Nik Juarez became the third jockey to win consecutive races.
• Race 8: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $5,500.
• Race 7: Tyler Gaffalione repeated a trip to the winner's circle.
• Race 6: Tyler Gaffalione won on board a favorite which temporarily halted the frenzy..
• Race 5: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $33,000. The $2 Pick 3 returned more than $5,200.
• Race 4: The winner paid over $24. The $.50 Pick 3 was slightly under $2,000.
• Race 3: Luca Panici won consecutive races for the second time this week. In race 3, the winner paid over $41. The $2 exacta was slightly under $1,000. The $2 trifecta was a phenomenal $10,127. The $1 super paid close to $30,000. The $2 Pick 3 was an astronomical $38,000+.
• Race 2: Luca Panici won the first of consecutive starts. and the winner paid $14.80. Considering the prices of the first two races, the $899 double seemed a tad low.
• Race 1: The race day began with arguably the biggest stunner. A 75-to-1 bomb of all bombs looked like he was shot out of a cannon from being 5th in the stretch and produced a $153.60 win. He beat the even money favorite.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Chuckie Lopez, er, Charles C. Lopez won with a first time starter at 22-to-1. Just the 2nd win of the year for the 56-year-old rider.

Santa Anita (California):

• In the Grade III $100,000 American Stakes, What a View (Stewart Elliott/Kenneth Black) won by a neck at 6-to-1.
• In the Grade II $200,000 Kona Gold Stakes, Bobby Abu Dhabi (Victor Espinoza/Peter Miller) won in a short field.
• Veteran Stewart Elliott has six wins which tops the early days of the current meet. Flavien Prat has been in the 13 times in 18 starts, 72%. Interestingly, bug rider of the year Evin Roman is struggling with 1 win in 26 starts. He is no longer an apprentice.

Woodbine (Ontario):

• The simulcast appears to have a new color scheme. The black, red and white colors receives a passing grade upon first glance.
• Rafael Hernandez had perhaps the best day of any rider in North America. He was 8 5-1-2. Five wins and hit the board on every mount.
• Race 8: 2017 Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd chalked up his ninth straight victory and set a track record for fastest time at the distance. He is now 14 12-1-0 after winning the $100,000 feature.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 22, 2018

Aqueduct (New York):

• Irad Ortiz, Jr, the leading winner in North America in 2018 to date, won three more times.
• Irad Ortiz, Jr. (24), Manny Franco (17) and Junior Alvarado (11) were the winningest riders at the meet. Javier Castellano was at 32%, the highest among riders with 7+ wins.
• Chad Brown (15) won the trainer's title, Linda Rice was second in wins (11), Brown's 38% was best among trainers with more than two wins.
• Today was the closing day of the meet. The track reopens in November. Onto Belmont.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Edgar Prado won for the 6,993rd time. Seven wins shy of 7,000.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• There are few riders as hot as Samy Camacho. He won three times today and was 5 3-1-1 in total. The last three days, he is 18 6-5-3. He also surpassed Daniel Centeno into second place for wins at the meet behind Antonio Gallardo. Among the leading riders in North America in 2018, Gallardo and Camacho are two of just five with more than 80 victories.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Three more wins for Tyler Gaffalione. He has won five of his last 12 starts.
• Luca Panici was 5 1-2-1 today. He is getting into that positive groove I expected after a ghastly winter/spring meet. He has won on four straight cards.
• Frank and Dino's will be celebrating tonight. Trainer and restauranteur Carlo Vaccarezza won with a 7-to-1 shot, off a 7-2 morning line, that may have been the gift of the young year.

​

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Florent Geroux won four times and though not without talent, winning four in a day at Keeneland isn't effortless.
• What else needs to be said about Joel Rosario. When he wins early on a card, he will repeat. I said it many times and it happened with aplomb. He finished with three winners.
• Adam Beschizza had a $15.60 winner.

Lone Star (Texas):

• Karl Broberg, North America's winningest trainer in 2018, had four more winners. He was 8 4-1-2.
• Richard Eremia, who teamed with Karl Broberg for three wins, won four times. He was 9 4-2-1 in all.

Santa Anita (California):

• In the Grade III $100,000 79th running of the San Juan Capistrano, Nessy (Mike Smith/Ian Wilkes) won at 4-to-5. The horse ran mostly in Kentucky and the East Coast. The 21st start, third win, first time with Smith on board. I don't know that pairing has been together very often but apparently they have a long friendship. Smith last won this race in 1995, a long and glorious career.

​

Emerald Downs (Washington):

• Today was opening day at the meet and headlines were made.
• Race 10: The track paid out its highest Pick 5 ever, $23,306.55 to one bettor.
• Rocco Bowen won four consecutive races beginning with race4. That is a tremendous feat.
• Gary Wales, who rode most recently at Tampa Bay, made the trek across country and won twice in seven starts.
• Race 8: The $1 exacta was $673. The $.50 trifecta paid over $1,800.

Woodbine (Ontario):

• The second day of the meet and the second 5-win day for a rider. Today it was Luis Contreras. Rafael Hernandez, yesterday's 5-time winner, won three more times today.
• Norman McKnight, the leader trainer at the most recent meet, is 6 4-1-1 through two racing days.
• A nasty spill in race 2 but both horses and jockeys involved are reportedly fine. I don't know much about Brittany Vandenberg, who may have been riding for family members (trainer and owner, based on names), but she walked off per reports. That had to be a harrowing moment. The rider is in her mid-20s and has 74 lifetime wins per Equibase.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

TELEVISION (or where to view)

Time	Date	Event	Broadcast outlet
11 am ET	April 30	Oaks Post Position Draw	Kentucky Derby
11 am ET	May 1	Derby Post Position Draw	Kentucky Derby
4-6:30 pm ET	May 3	Derby Access	NBCSN
12-3 pm ET	May 4	Kentucky Oaks Undercard	NBCSN
5-6:30 pm ET	May 4	Kentucky Oaks 144	NBCSN
12-2:30 pm ET	May 5	Kentucky Derby Undercard	NBCSN
2:30-7:30 pm ET	May 5	Kentucky Derby 144 6:46 pm ET Kentucky Derby Post Time​	NBC

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2018 KENTUCKY OAKS (Grade I) CONTENDERS

• What: America's most lucrative race for 3-year-old fillies
• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
• When: Friday, May 4, 2018
• Time: 6:12 pm ET, the 11th race of 13 on the card.
• Distance: 1 1/8 mile
• Purse: $1,000,000 (first place winner gets $600,000)
• Kentucky Oaks Day: First post is 10:30 a.m.ET. The final race starts at 7:23 p.m. ET. There are 13 races.
• Attendance: More than 110,000 is expected.
• Television: NBCSN coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET. TVG airs horse racing coverage 24/7.
• History: First run in 1875.

[TR][TH]RANK	HORSE	TRAINER	LAST START
1	Monomoy Girl (Tapizar)	Brad Cox	1st, Ashland Stakes (G1)
2	Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute)	William Spawr	1st, Santa Anita Oaks (G1)
3	Coach Rocks (Oxbow)	Dale Romans	1st, Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)
4	Rayya (Tiz Wonderful)	Doug Watson	2nd, UAE Derby (G1)
5	Eskimo Kisses (To Honor and Serve)	Kenny McPeek	2nd, Ashland Stakes (G1)
6	Chocolate Martini (Broken Vow)	Tom Amoss	1st, Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
7	Wonder Gadot (Medaglia d'Oro)	Mark Casse	2nd, Fantasy Stakes (G3)
8	Take Charge Paula (Take Charge Indy)	Kiaran McLaughlin	2nd, Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)
9	My Miss Lilly (Tapit)	Mark Hennig	1st, Gazelle Stakes (G2)
10	Blamed (Blame)	Joel Marr	1st, Sunland Stakes (G3)
11	Sassy Sienna (Midshipman)	Brad Cox	1st, Fantasy Stakes (G3)
12	Patrona Margarita (Special Rate)	Bret Calhoun	3rd, Ashland Stakes (G1)
13	Classy Act (Into Mischief)	Bret Calhoun	4th, Fair Ground Oaks (G2)
14	Red Ruby (Tiznow)	Kellyn Gorder	4th, Honeybee Stakes (G3)

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Source: Kentucky Oaks Contenders, Picks and Results | Thoroughbred Racing Dudes
Source: Kentucky Oaks Horses​

A look at the possible 2018 Kentucky Derby field (not in true alphabetical order due to changes). The ranking is based on the Derby point system. A maximum field of 20 is expected.

Horse	Rank	Sire	Jockey	Trainer
Audible	3	Into Mischief	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher
Bolt d' Oro	6	Medaglia d' Oro	Victor Espinoza	Mick Ruis
Bravazo	12	Awesome Again	Luis Contreras	Wayne Lukas
Combatant	19	Scat Daddy	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	Steve Asmussen
Flameaway	10	Scat Daddy	Jose Lezcano	Mark Casse
Free Drop Billy	15	Union Rags	Robby Albarado.	Dale Romans
Firenze Fire	18	Poseidon's Warrior	Paco Lopez	Jason Servis
Enticed	7	Medaglia d'Oro	Junior Alvarado	Kiaran McLaughlin
Instilled Regard	20	Arch	Drayden Van Dyke	Jerry Hollendorfer
Good Magic	2	Curlin	Jose Ortiz	Chad Brown
Hofburg	17	Tapit	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Bill Mott
Justify	9	Scat Daddy	Mike Smith	Bob Baffert
Lone Sailor	16	Majestic Warrior	James Graham	Thomas Amoss
Magnum Moon	1	Malibu Moon	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher
Mendelssohn	8	Scat Daddy	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien
My Boy Jack	13	Creative Cause	Kent Desormeaux	Keith Desormeaux
Noble Indy	4	Take Charge Indy	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher
Promises Fulfilled	14	Shackelford	Corey Lanerie	Dale Romans
Solomini	11	Curlin	Flavien Prat	Bob Baffert
Blended Citizen	21/AE	Proud Citizen	Kyle Frey?	Doug O'Neill
Vino Rosso	5	Curlin	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher

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Notes:

• JOCKEYS: Red under jockey means the rider has been confirmed or expected to be confirmed barring any last minute changes.
• RANK: Ranking is based on the points system devised for the Kentucky Derby prep races (listed in the opener of this thread).
• HOW MANY WILL BE ENTERED? The field is expected to have 20 runners and by rule that is the maximum size but not the mandatory number. Horses beyond the number 20 are in order of the "also eligible" list which means the connections have the option to be added to the Derby if one of the top 20 is unable to race.
• WHAT JOCKEYS REMAIN AVAILABLE?: Many (names deleted after they pick up mounts). Among those without mounts are Tyler Gaffalione, Joel Rosario, Joe Bravo, Julien Leparoux, Calvin Borel and Mario Gutierrez.
• MOST RECENT CHANGES: Quip and Gronkowski (April 23) have been removed from consideration and replaced by Combatant and Instilled Regard, respectively. Blended Citizen would be the first horse to be entered (currently 21) should one of the 20 not make the race.

A list of confirmed runners based on points earned:

[TR][TH]Rank	Horse	Trainer	Points	Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.	Magnum Moon	Todd Pletcher	150	$1,140,000
2.	Good Magic	Chad Brown	134	$1,838,400
3.	Audible	Todd Pletcher	110	$803,520
4.	Noble Indy	Todd Pletcher	110	$640,000
5.	Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	107	$572,500
6.	Bolt d'Oro	Mick Ruis	104	$980,000
7.	Enticed	Kiaran McLaughlin	103	$545,880
8.	Mendelssohn	Aidan O'Brien	100	$1,947,299
9.	Justify	Bob Baffert	100	$600,000
10.	Flameaway	Mark Casse	70	$672,260
11.	Solomini	Bob Baffert	54	$716,000
12.	Bravazo	D. Wayne Lukas	54	$359,913
13.	My Boy Jack	Keith Desormeaux	52	$622,000
14.	Promises Fulfilled	Dale Romans	52	$266,480
15.	Free Drop Billy	Dale Romans	44	$597,200
16.	Lone Sailor	Tom Amoss	42	$273,347
17.	Hofburg	Bill Mott	40	$192,000
18.	Firenze Fire	Jason Servis	39	$647,500
19.	Combatant	Steve Asmussen	32	$350,000
20.	Instilled Regard	Jerry Hollendorfer	29	$246,000
--	--	--	--	--
21.	Snapper Sinclair	Steve Asmussen	22	$321,810
22.	Blended Citizen	Doug O'Neill	22	$159,644
23.	Reride	Steve Asmussen	20	$298,000

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 25, 2018

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Race 5: The $2 Pick 5 paid over $15,000. The $2 Pick 4 was even higher at $15,500+
• There are five jockeys in North America with more than 80 wins in 2018 and two are based here. Both Antonio Gallardo and Samy Camacho won twice.

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Brad Cox and Chad Brown are having gigantic meets. Cox leads all trainers with 13 wins followed by Brown's 11. More impressively is their 50-52% winning percentages and 62-76% in the money figures. Wesley Ward is succeeding, too, with 11 wins and 31% and 63% figures.
• Adam Beschizza won with consecutive mounts including a very proficient stretch battle with Julien Leparoux in a 1 1/2 mile race.
• Shaun Bridgmohan won with both his mounts.
• In race 3, a 75-to-1 ridden by former Calder jockey Arienne Cox finished second. It was the second highest odds of 12 runners. She seems to ride exclusively for trainer Wayne Rice at the meet.

Mahoning Valley (Ohio):

• The 63-day meet ended with a 23.6% increase in handle from last year. The average handle per race exceeded $124,000 which set a track record for any meet since the facility opened in 2014. The track reopens for live racing in October.
• Belterra (Cincinnati area) and Thistledown (Cleveland area) open their meets on April 27 and April 30, respectively.

Hawthorne (Illinois):

• The card concluded with an 87-to-1 bomb topping the ticket and paid $177.80. The $.20 High Five paid over $36,000. The $.50 Pick 4 was over $2,300. With a 4-to-5 topping the previous race, the $1 double paid only $67. That means the win in the finale bet topped the double payout.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 26, 2018

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Adam Beschizza oozed every drip of energy in winning the finale. A furious finish. It is efforts such as this that endear a rider to a handicapper.

​

• Joel Rosario. When he wins one early on the card, he will repeat. This time races 4 and 5.
• Wesley Ward continues to be strong this meet. He finished 1st and 2nd in race 6 and also won race 4. He is now tied with Brad Cox for the most wins at 13. Perhaps just as stunning is the fact that Ward won the last 10 races of 2-year-olds in which he entered. He began the meet losing two such races then won the next ten. Many connections will send horses to Saratoga for the annual meet later this year.

The three trainers at the meet with 10+ wins have been remarkable:​

Trainer	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	Winning %	In Money %
Wesley Ward	40	13	9	3	33%	63%
Brad Cox	27	13	1	2	48%	59%
Chad Brown	21	11	3	2	52%	76%

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Gulfstream (Florida):

• Miguel Vasquez won four times with nine mounts including giving trainer Peter Walder a perfect 2-for-2 day.
• Race 6: Bye Bye J (Miguel Vasquez/Ronald Spatz), an Arkansas-bred, broke her maiden in her debut. Maybe most noteworthy because she was sired by Ontario-bred Uncaptured who was my early wise guy pick in the 2013 Kentucky Derby pick. He ran at Woodbine but flopped in the Blue Grass. This is Uncaptured's first win as a sire.
• Kathleen O'Connell, who trains mostly at Tampa Bay, had five entered today and ended the day 1-1-2. She finished 2nd and 3rd in one race in which her place horse paid $19.60.

Hawthorne (Illinois):

• I don't recall the last 10-year old maiden who ran but one happened today and he went off at 112-to-1 odds. He is now 0-for-32 with one place showing.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

EDGAR PRADO

Prado is the leading active rider with 6,994 wins, ranking eighth all-time behind Russell Baze (12,842), Laffit Pincay Jr. (9,530), Bill Shoemaker (8,833), Pat Day (8,803), David Gall (7,396), Chris McCarron (7,141) and Angel Cordero Jr. (7,057). He ranks seventh with $266.5 million in career purse earnings, a category led by Hall of Famer John Velazquez's $383.3 million.

Prado began riding in 1983 in Peru where he was the leading apprentice before arriving in South Florida, getting his first mount on Always Misty April 16, 1986 at Hialeah. His first U.S. win came June 1, 1986 on Single Love at the former Calder Race Course, his 17th mount.

Edgar Prado Can Secure 7,000 Victories As Laurel Park Meet Winds Down - Horse Racing News | Paulick Report
​

BELMONT PARK
One recent development in the planning stages of the new complex is the possibility of a synthetic surface added for winter racing. If so, that could be a telltale sign for Aqueduct's demise. Also, awarding a Breeders' Cup a few years from now -- likely beyond 2021 when the redesigned facility at Belmont is scheduled to be complete -- is also possible should NYRA apply.

As far as today's opening day, rain is in the forecast.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 27, 2018

Belmont (New York):

• The meet opened today. The new graphics on the simulcast feed fail. The print is too small and the rider changes seem lost in the transmission. NYRA has annually produced one of the easiest to read feeds but that is no longer the case.
• In the opener, a good heated duel between Kendrick Carmouche and Mike Luzzi who was on a 13-to-1 and ended second. The $1 exacta for $40 proved beneficial. By my count, Luzzi is on a 77-race losing streak but times like this a second place is impressive.
• Race 7: Playinwiththeboys won and improved to 11 5-5-1. Finishing 1st or 2nd so often is commendable. Finishing in the money every race is tremendous.

Laurel (Maryland):

• The $.20 Pick 6 paid out $13,000+.
• Bug rider Weston Hamilton won twice and now is tied with Jorge Vargas, Jr. atop the leader board with 44 victories at the meet.
• Race 4: Edgar Prado won for the 6,994th time. He is attempting to become the 8th rider in North America to win 7,000 races in a career.

Belterra (Ohio):

• The meet opened today.
• Some high pay outs early on the card highlighted by $2,600+ trifectas in races 2 and 3.

Keeneland (Kentucky):

• Adam Beschizza had two winners today including the Grade III 1 1/2 mile Bewitched Stakes with Mom's On Strike (tr. Joe Sharp) at 9-to-2 odds. Mom's On Strike has won five of her last six and is now 10 5-3-0 on turf. She is a 5-year old mare by First Dude out of a War Chant mare. She has been ridden by Beschizza the last five times. Daddys Lil Darling (Mike Smith/Ken McPeek), in the rider's only start, finished second at 3-to-5. Fair to say now that Beschizza won a North American stakes race for the first time, he is no longer a hidden talent. Sharp did well in bringing the rider to the U.S.

​

• Other riders to win twice today included Corey Lanerie and Jose Ortiz. Trainer Michael Maker repeated.
• Jockey James Graham was 63 0-5-5 at the meet. Tough numbers.
• The $1 Pick 6 paid over $24,000.
• The meet ended today with the expectations of another stellar schedule met. More than $157,000,000 was wagered during the 16-day meet which was about $500,000 from the record.
• Leaders at the meet:

Florent Geroux (19), Jose Ortiz (18) and Corey Lanerie (16) were the leading riders.
Wesley Ward (13), Brad Cox (13) and Chad Brown (12) were the leading trainers.
​

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Wanderley D'Oliveira snapped an unofficial losing streak at 75 races, which dated back to 2009, with a victory today. He rides infrequently.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Four riders had two victories including Luca Panici who won two of the first three races. He is at a respectable 14% at the meet.
• Race 5: Eight first-timers battled. Another win for Tyler Gaffalione/Todd Pletcher the latter who excels in baby races.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The weekend prior to the Kentucky Derby is generally quiet comparatively speaking. Nonetheless, Churchill Downs opens Saturday night.

Luis Contreras, Woodbine-based jockey who rode at Oaklawn earlier this year, picked up the mount on Bravazo for Wayne Lukas in the Kentucky Derby.

Drayden Van Dyke, who is based in California, will pick up the mount on Instilled Regard for Jerry Hollendorfer.

Post #933 in this thread has the latest rider assignments and likely entries. Post positions to be drawn on May 1.

------------------------

As far as the Oaks, some rider assignments can be found here with this incomplete look. Post positions will be drawn April 30.

SHAPING UP: THE KENTUCKY OAKS - Likely starters in the 144th running of the $1 million, Grade I Longines Kentucky Oaks to be run for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles on Friday, May 4: Blamed (jockey Ken Tohill), Chocolate Martini (TBA), Classy Act (TBA), Coach Rocks (Luis Saez), Eskimo Kisses (TBA), Midnight Bisou (TBA), Monomoy Girl (Florent Geroux), My Miss Lilly (Joe Bravo), Patrona Margarita (TBA), Rayya (Drayden Van Dyke), Sassy Sienna (Gary Stevens), Take Charge Paula (Jose Ortiz), Wonder Gadot (John Velazquez).
Possible Starters within the Top 14 on the preference list: Amy's Challenge (TBA).
Next up in order of preference: Red Ruby (TBA), Exuberance (TBA), Heavenhasmynikki (TBA), Kelly's Humor (TBA).

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 28, 2018

• The week before the Kentucky Derby can offer lesser racing than what is customary.
• Trainer Karl Broberg, who leads North America in victories in 2018, had runners at four tracks and finished 21 5-5-0. His horses were entered at Prairie Meadows (Iowa), Lone Star (Texas), Remington (Oklahoma) and Evangeline (Louisiana).

Belmont (New York):

• In the $125,000 feature race, John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher won with a 12-to-1 morning line -- think about that for a moment -- which was sent off at 5-to-1.
• Joel Rosario won the fourth which was good enough for the repeat theory to be applied: he won race 8. He was 6 2-2-1 today.
• A 4-year-old who started for the first time won under Junior Alvarado for Bill Mott.
• Mike Luzzi had one ride, in the finale, and finished third at 61-to-1. That either made exotic bettors delirious for both good and bad.
• Awful graphics on the simulcast feed. New York had one of the best. Laurel and Gulfstream seem to have as good as any track and Philly is very good even though the red is too present

Parx (Pennsylvania):

• Race 10: The $2 Pick 3 paid over $3,400 when a $68.00 boosted the pay out.
• Race 8: In a stakes race of PA-breds, The Man, who is owned by Bob Baffert's wife, failed to hit the board for the second time in 11 starts. The Man is now 11 7-1-1 lifetime. In between the two non-placed finishes were seven consecutive victories with the last defeat coming in 2015.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Race 9: Edgar Prado won for the 6,996th time.
• Race 1: The card opened with trainer Lacey Gaudet winning. She won the finale the prior day.

LAUREL PARK 4 28 18 RACE 1​

• Laurel has a nice turf course.
• Laurel's meet closes May 6 and reopens in June. Pimlico is the prime Maryland racing facility in between.
• Heading into the final week, bug rider Weston Hamilton and usually Philly-based Jorge Vargas, Jr. are tied with 44 victories on the leader board.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Wanderley De'Oliveira won for the second straight day. He snapped a skid at 75 yesterday.
• Rick Creel won today. The trainer is now 1-for-66 at the meet.
• Antonio Gallardo and Samy Camacho each won three times. Both are among the six riders in North America with 86 or more wins in 2018. Camacho had 94 wins in 2017, by far his winningest campaign entering this year.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Race 11: The $1 superfecta paid over $66,000.
• Race 8: What could have been in an entertaining race. Luca Panici rode lights out with a 25-to-1 but got nipped by the favorite. Paid good money to place and show.

​

• Race 2: Bug rider Romero Ramsay won for the first time in his fourth race.
• Miguel Vasquez was 11 2-1-5. Five show positions is a ton.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Opened its meet at 6:00 pm ET.
• If Corey Lanerie rode elsewhere similar to his results in Kentucky.... he just won races 5 and 6 for trainer Gregory Foley.

Lone Star (Texas):

• What a day for Richard Eramia. He won five time in seven starts. The native of Uruguay had three straight wins and won four times by the end of race 6.

Golden Gate (California):

• Race 5: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $12,000. The $2 Pick 5 more than $28,000.
• Race 6: The $2 Pick 3 paid more than $2,500.

Santa Anita (California):

• In a $100,000 Grade III, trainer Richard Baltas had four of the six runners. He won at 9-to-1.
• In a $200,000 Grade II, Dr. Dorr (Joe Talamo/Bob Baffert) won for the 5th time in 11 starts.

​

• Santa Anita has a wonderful turf course.

Woodbine (Ontario):

• Upon second glance, the between-races graphics are not appealing on the simulcast feed. The colors are fine but the print is small. Odds need to be emphasized.
• Let It Ride Mom (Patrick Husbands/Mark Casse) win the $125,000 Grade III feature in a photo finish.

​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 29, 2018

Belmont (New York):

• Race 3: The majority of eyes were focused on Caledonia Road (Junior Alvarado/Ralph Nicks) who was sent off at 2-to-5 and impressed in a 3-length victory. She last ran in the Breeders Cup Juvy Fillies in November where she improved to 2-for-3 lifetime. The filly had been sidelined with bone chips. If healthy, she likely would have been in the Kentucky Oaks this Friday. Instead, she is pointed towards to the Acorn in June.

​

• Race 7: The top four were sent off at odds of 39-1, 23-1, 16-1 and 14-1 which led to a $21,000+ $1 super. The $.50 tri was $1,900+. The $2 exacta was $960.
• Race 9:; The $2 Pick 6 paid out to those who hit 5 of 6 legs and even with that the total exceeded $14,000. The $2 Pick 4 paid stunning $68,246. The $2 Pick 3 paid over $15,000. The winner went off at 28-to-1.

Laurel (Maryland):

• The payouts were dazzling especially in the latter half of the card.
• Race 11: $45.00 win. $3,310 for the tri. The $2 Pick 3 was over $20,000. The $2 Pick 4 paid out to those who hit three of the four legs.
• Race 10: The $2 Pick 3 exceeded $19,000.
• Race 9: $119.40 winner with Taylor Hole riding the 58-to-1 to victory. The veteran jockey has over 2,000 wins in a career that is nearing 30 years; he is 5-for-20 this year in limited rides. The $2 Pick 3 paid over $34,000. The $2 tri paid over $4,300.
• Race 7: The $1 super exceeded $22,000.
• Weston Hamilton, an apprentice rider, pulled ahead in the rider standings with his 45th victory at the meet, one more than Jorge Vargas, Jr.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Samy Camacho won twice and now has 88 wins in 2018 which is tied for fifth most in North America this year. His career best is 94.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Race 11: Terrific prices for anyone who cashed despite a 3-to-1 winning. The $2 Pick 5 paid over $40,000. The $2 Pick 4 paid over $17,000. The $2 Pick 3 paid over $5,000. The $.20 Pick 6 (Rainbow Six) paid out over $48,000 to each winner. Three horses were singled entering the finale but since none won, the carryover for Thursday's card will begin at more than $795,000.
• Race 10: The longest shot on the board won at 28-to-1.
• Races 8 and 9: Trainer Ralph Nicks won consecutive races. He was a perfect 3-for-3 including the important performance at Belmont (New York) today.

Lone Star (Texas):

• Richard Eramia and Karl Broberg teamed for four winners out of five starters. Broberg is the winningest trainer in North America in 2018 with 157 which is 39 more than runner up Steve Asmussen.

Golden Gate (California):

• Race 8: In the $100,000 feature race, brother Craig Dollase and his sister Michelle had horses in the same race for the first time. Result: Michelle was the victor for the sixth time in her training career. The $1 tri returned over $3,000.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 8: In the $100,000 Grade III feature, Belvoir Bay (Tyler Baze/Peter Miller) won for the 8th time ion 19 starts.
• The favorites won five times and finished second three times in nine races. The exception was a 23-to-1 winner with a 15-to-1 runner up in race 7.

Woodbine (Ontario):

• Rafael Hernandez won four times including the $125,000 feature race. He was 10 4-1-2 total with a loaded schedule. At the meet, he has more than twice the victories than the second place challenger -- 14-to-6 -- his winning percentage is 40% and his percentage in the money is 74%.
• Race 4: An 80-to-1 finished fourth which delighted many exotic players. The $1 super returned over $26,000.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

T- 1 WEEK until 144th Kentucky Derby

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

My pre-race pick drew the inside slot. Not the most desired spot. The favorite drew the far outside.

Heavenhasmynikki will be the object of affection for many Ohio handicappers. The price is certainly there. The Ohio bred is owned by Ron Paolucci who wanted to enter the unraced maiden in a Breeders' Cup race and then after being denied famously said "I will go to my grave saying -- and I don't care who believes it -- if Bob Baffert or Steve Asmussen or Chad Brown entered that horse, there's no chance on God's green earth it would even be questioned. None. Zero." If the filly somehow wins this race, the reaction by the spirited Paolucci should be entertaining.

2018 Longines Kentucky Oaks

What: America's most lucrative race for 3-year-old fillies
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
When: Friday, May 4, 2018
Time: 6:12 pm ET, the 11th race of 13 on the card
Distance: 1 1/8 mile
Purse: $1,000,000 (first place awarded $600,000)
Attendance: More than 110,000 is expected
History: First run in 1875
Television: NBCSN coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET. TVG airs horse racing coverage 24/7
Kentucky Oaks Day: First post is 10:30 a.m.ET. The final race starts at 7:23 p.m. ET. There are 13 races
The full card for Friday: Equibase | North American Entries​

[TR][TH]PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Sassy Sienna (KY)	Gary L. Stevens	121	Brad H. Cox	15/1
2	Coach Rocks (KY)	Luis Saez	121	Dale L. Romans	12/1
3	Classy Act (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	121	W. Bret Calhoun	15/1
4	Chocolate Martini (KY)	Javier Castellano	121	Thomas M. Amoss	12/1
5	Wonder Gadot (ON)	John R. Velazquez	121	Mark E. Casse	20/1
6	Kelly's Humor (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	121	Brad H. Cox	30/1
7	Rayya (KY)	Drayden Van Dyke	121	Bob Baffert	12/1
8	Heavenhasmynikki (OH)	Calvin H. Borel	121	Anthony T. Quartarolo	50/1
9	Take Charge Paula (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	121	Kiaran P. McLaughlin	15/1
10	Midnight Bisou (KY)	Mike E. Smith	121	William Spawr	5/2
11	My Miss Lilly (KY)	Joe Bravo	121	Mark A. Hennig	10/1
12	Patrona Margarita (TX)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	121	W. Bret Calhoun	30/1
13	Eskimo Kisses (KY)	Corey J. Lanerie	121	Kenneth G. McPeek	15/1
14	Monomoy Girl (KY)	Florent Geroux	121	Brad H. Cox	2/1

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[TBODY][TR][TH]The week ahead:[/TH][/TR][/TBODY]
[TBODY][TR][TH]

Time	Date	Event	Broadcast outlet
11 am ET	April 30	Oaks Post Position Draw	Kentucky Derby
11 am ET	May 1	Derby Post Position Draw	Kentucky Derby
4-6:30 pm ET	May 3	Derby Access	NBCSN
12-3 pm ET	May 4	Kentucky Oaks Undercard	NBCSN
5-6:30 pm ET	May 4	Kentucky Oaks 144	NBCSN
12-2:30 pm ET	May 5	Kentucky Derby Undercard	NBCSN
2:30-7:30 pm ET	May 5	Kentucky Derby 144 6:46 pm ET Kentucky Derby Post Time​	NBC

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Score one for the little guys. It is easy to praise the high-profiled riders but this week a jock representing many riders in the smaller circuits prevailed as Jockey of the Week. Richard Eramia, riding at Lone Star in Texas, was 20 11-2-3. The native of Uruguay had 11 wins and was in the money 16 times in 20 starts. He "only" has 42 wins in 2018 but 11 the last three racing days is laudable.

April 30, 2018

Finger Lakes (New York):

• Oscar Gomez won four times in five starts. However, with the Kentucky Oaks and major racing this weekend, I doubt the smaller tracks get much attention for another Jockey of the Week. Still, four wins is a solid day at any track.
• With limited racing in Massachusetts, this track in upstate New York occasionally has races limited to Mass-breds as was the case today. Dr. Blarney (Tammi Piermarini/Karl Grusmark) won for the 12th time in 18 starts and improved to 5 4-0-1 at this track. The jockey has been riding since the mid-1980s and the trainer first sent a horse out in 1965. Both have long histories in New England racing and will likely be preparing for the brief meet this summer at Suffolk Downs (Massachusetts) where Dr. Blarney is an incredible 7 6-0-1 lifetime.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

KENTUCKY DERBY presented by Woodford Reserve (Grade I)

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
When: Saturday, May 5, 2018
Post Time: 6:50 pm ET, race 12 of 14
Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: 1 1/4 mile
Age: 3-year-olds
Television: 12:00 pm ET - 2:30 pm ET on NBCSN; 2:30 - 7:30 pm ET on NBC.
Full card: Equibase | North American Entries
History: 144th running.
​

[TR][TH]PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Firenze Fire (FL)	Paco Lopez	126	Jason Servis	50/1
2	Free Drop Billy (KY)	Robby Albarado	126	Dale L. Romans	30/1
3	Promises Fulfilled (KY)	Corey J. Lanerie	126	Dale L. Romans	30/1
4	Flameaway (ON)	Jose Lezcano	126	Mark E. Casse	30/1
5	Audible (NY)	Javier Castellano	126	Todd A. Pletcher	8/1
6	Good Magic (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	126	Chad C. Brown	12/1
7	Justify (KY)	Mike E. Smith	126	Bob Baffert	3/1
8	Lone Sailor (KY)	James Graham	126	Thomas M. Amoss	50/1
9	Hofburg (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	126	William I. Mott	20/1
10	My Boy Jack (KY)	Kent J. Desormeaux	126	J. Keith Desormeaux	30/1
11	Bolt d'Oro (KY)	Victor Espinoza	126	Mick Ruis	8/1
12	Enticed (KY)	Junior Alvarado	126	Kiaran P. McLaughlin	30/1
13	Bravazo (KY)	Luis Contreras	126	D. Wayne Lukas	50/1
14	Mendelssohn (KY)	Ryan L. Moore	126	Aidan P. O'Brien	5/1
15	Instilled Regard (KY)	Drayden Van Dyke	126	Jerry Hollendorfer	50/1
16	Magnum Moon (KY)	Luis Saez	126	Todd A. Pletcher	6/1
17	Solomini (KY)	Flavien Prat	126	Bob Baffert	30/1
18	Vino Rosso (KY)	John R. Velazquez	126	Todd A. Pletcher	12/1
19	Noble Indy (KY)	Florent Geroux	126	Todd A. Pletcher	30/1
20	Combatant (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	126	Steven M. Asmussen	50/1
21	Blended Citizen (KY)	Kyle Frey	126	Doug F. O'Neill	50/1

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[TBODY][TR][TH]------------

KENTUCKY DERBY PAST WINNERS (2017-1960) source: Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Year Winner PP Jockey Trainer Time Margin Odds 2018 Justify 7 Mike Smith Bob Baffert 2:04.20 2 1/2 5/2 2017 Always Dreaming 5 John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 2:03:59 2 3/4 9/2 2016 Nyquist 13 Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 2:01.31 1 1/4 2/1 2015 American Pharoah 18 Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 2:03.02 1 5/2 2014 California Chrome 5 Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 2:03.66 1 3/4 5/2 2013 Orb 16 Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 2:02:89 2 1/2 5 2012 I'll Have Another 19 Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 2:01.83 1 1/2 15 2011 Animal Kingdom 16 John Velazquez Graham Motion 2:02.04 2 3/4 20 2010 Super Saver 4 Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 2:04.45 2 1/2 8 2009 Mine That Bird 8 Calvin Borel Bennie L. Woolley, Jr. 2:02.66 6 3/4 50 2008 Big Brown 20 K. Desormeaux R. Dutrow, Jr. 2:01.82 8 *3.5 2007 Street Sense 7 C. Borel C. Nafzger 2:02.17 2 1/4 *4.5 2006 Barbaro 3 E. Prado M. Matz 2:01.36 6 1/2 *6 2005 Giacomo 10 M. Smith J. Shirreffs 2:02.75 1 1/2 50.30 2004 Smarty Jones 13 S. Elliott J. Servis 2:04.06 2 3/4 *4.10 2003 Funny Cide 5 J. Santos B. Tagg 2:01.19 1 3/4 12.80 2002 War Emblem 5 V. Espinoza B. Baffert 2:01.13 4 20.50 2001 Monarchos 16 J. Chavez J. T. Ward 1:59.97 4 3/4 10.50 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 15 K. Desormeaux N. Drysdale 2:01.12 1 1/2 *2.30 1999 Charismatic 16 C. Antley D.W. Lukas 2:03.29 nk 31.30 1998 Real Quiet 3 K. Desormeaux B. Baffert 2:02.38 1/2 8.40 1997 Silver Charm 5 G. Stevens B. Baffert 2:02.44 hd 4.00 1996 Grindstone 15 J. Bailey D.W. Lukas 2:01.06 no 5.90 1995 Thunder Gulch 16 G. Stevens D.W. Lukas 2:01.27 2 1/4 24.50 1994 Go for Gin 8 C. McCarron N. Zito 2:03.72 2 9.10 1993 Sea Hero 6 J. Bailey M. Miller 2:02.42 2 1/2 12.90 1992 Lil E. Tee 10 P. Day L. Whiting 2:03.04 1 16.80 1991 Strike the Gold 5 C. Antley N. Zito 2:03.08 1 3/4 4.80 1990 Unbridled 8 C. Perret C. Nafzgar 2:02 3 1/2 10.80 1989 Sunday Silence 10 P. Valenzuela C. Whittingham 2:05 2 1/2 3.10 1988 Winning Colors 11 G. Stevens D.W. Lukas 2:02 1/5 nk 3.40 1987 Alysheba 3 C. McCarron J. Van Berg 2:03 2/5 3/4 8.40 1986 Ferdinand 1 W. Shoemaker C. Whittingham 2:02 4/5 2 1/4 17.70 1985 Spend a Buck 10 A. Cordero Jr. C. Gambolati 2:00 1/5 5 1/4 4.10 1984 Swale 15 L. Pincay Jr. W. Stephens 2:02 2/5 3 1/4 3.40 1983 Sunny's Halo 10 E. Delahoussaye D. Cross Jr. 2:02 1/5 2 2.50 1982 Gato Del Sol 18 E. Delahoussaye E. Gregson 2:02 3/5 2 1/2 21.20 1981 Pleasant Colony 7 J. Velasquez J. Campo 2:02 3/4 3.50 1980 Genuine Risk 10 J. Vasquez L. Jolley 2:02 1 13.30 1979 Spectacular Bid 3 R. Franklin G. Delp 2:02 2/5 2 3/4 *0.60 1978 Affirmed 2 S. Cauthen L. Barrera 2:01 1/5 1 1/2 1.80 1977 Seattle Slew 4 J. Cruguet W. Turner 2:02 1/5 1 3/4 *0.50 1976 Bold Forbes 2 A. Cordero Jr. L. Barrera 2:01 3/5 1 3.00 1975 Foolish Pleasure 3 J. Vasquez L. Jolley 2:02 1 3/4 *1.90 1974 Cannonade 2 A. Cordero Jr. W. Stephens 2:04 2 1/4 *1.50 1973 Secretariat 10 R. Turcotte L. Laurin 1:59 2/5 2 1/2 *1.50 1972 Riva Ridge 9 R. Turcotte L. Laurin 2:01 4/5 3 3/4 *1.50 1971 Canonero II 12 G. Avila J. Arius 2:03 1/5 3 3/4 8.70 1970 Dust Commander 2 M. Manganello D. Combs 2:03 2/5 5 15.30 1969 Majestic Prince 8 J. Longden W. Hartack 2:01 4/5 nk *1.40 1968 Forward Pass (via DQ) 13 I. Valenzuela H. Forrest 2:02 1/5 n/a *2.20 1967 Proud Clarion 7 R. Ussery L. Gentry 2:00 3/5 1 30.10 1966 Kauai King 12 D. Brumfield H. Forrest 2:02 1/2 *2.40 1965 Lucky Debonair 8 W. Shoemaker F. Catrone 2:01 1/5 nk 4.30 1964 Northern Dancer 7 W. Hartak H. Luro 2:00 nk 3.40 1963 Chateaugay 1 B. Baeza J.P. Conway 2:01 4/5 1 1/4 9.40 1962 Decidedly 4 W. Hartak H. Luro 2:00 2/5 2 1/4 8.70 1961 Carry Back 14 J. Sellers J.A. Price 2:04 3/4 *2.50 1960 Venetian Way 9 W. Hartack V. Sovinski 2:02 2/5 3 1/2 6.30 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Kentucky Derby preview, Horses listed include their lifetime records (Career starts followed by 1st-2nd-3rd place finishes).

Track conditions could change things and certain the bias of earlier races can alter opinions. But here goes:

1. Firenze Fire (9 4-1-0). Trainer: Jason Servis. Jockey: Paco Lopez. Odds: 50-1.

The dreaded number one post. Firenze Fire had questions whether he could go the distance in this race based on pedigree and now has the misfortune in being in a post that hasn't produced a winner since 1985. Paco Lopez has the reputation to gun horses and is aggressive. He is in his first Kentucky Derby. This horse has much to overcome to hit the board.​

2. Free Drop Billy (8 2-3-2). Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Robby Albarado. Odds: 30-1.

This colt seemed to regress as the prep season advanced and others progressed. He had an opportunity to be a factor but seemed to shy from the spotlight. Much will have to change for him to be a player in this race. Robby Albarado is a Dale Romans staple but there are plenty of gifted riders in this race and while still capable Albarado has seen better days. And one last note, the #2 post has not produced a winning horse in this race since the remarkable Affirmed won in 1978. ​

3. Promises Fulfilled (5 3-0-1). Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Corey Lanerie. Odds: 30-1.

Dale Romans has horses in consecutive posts. That shouldn't attract too much attention but if Promises Fulfilled does what is expected he could be on the lead as they reach the quarter pole. From there, the cavalry should take control. Corey Lanerie is a solid jock when riding in the state of Kentucky. He broke his maiden at Churchill in his first race. The horse to hit the board would be another story.​

4. Flameaway (9 5-2-0). Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano Odds: 30-1

You should like how this horse has run if you bet him in the past. Don't overlook the horse. Jose Lezcano has a reputation for being a better turf rider than on dirt but he has a battler, a scrapper in this 3-year-old. I doubt he wins but he could be a value play.​

5. Audible (5 4-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 8-1

A star from the Todd Pletcher barn. Why did John Velazquez opt for Vino Rosso when he had a choice? That should send a signal since Velazquez is as sly as any jockey. Javier Castellano has been named North America's top jockey in four of the last five years, snapped in 2017. The odds are surprising to me. I though he'd be closer to 5-to-1. He has been in my top five most of the prep season. This is perhaps the best post position for any of Pletcher's four runners in the race, too.​

6. Good Magic. (5 2-2-1) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Odds: 12-1.

Chad Brown is the Eclipse Award winner for Trainer of the Year. At 12-to-1, many people will bet this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves more than any. Jose Ortiz was named Outstanding Jockey of the Year for 2017 and deserved it. The horse's training at Churchill has been flattering. He has been in my top five Derby bets since his first race and has the talent to win -- he has Curlin as a sire -- even though that morning line is disconcerting. For whatever oddity, the 6 post has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 1993 when Sea Hero, currently the oldest Derby winner alive, was victorious. ​

7. Justify (3 3-0-0). Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith. Odds: 3-1.

The household names of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith has a precocious runner who is a perfect 3-for-3. The knock is the small fields in which he has succeeded. The Derby is a different game. He has 19 competitors which is more than the combined total of what he has defeated. The talent is without flaw. The inexperience could be a concern. He was unraced as a 2-year-old. No horse has won this race without running as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.. Another in my top five since day one. If you want a favorite, this is the likely option. If you want a price on top, look elsewhere. ​

8. Lone Sailor (8 1-3-1). Trainer: Tom Amoss. Jockey: James Graham. Odds: 50-1

The horse has been training exceptionally. However one win in eight races is ominous. He could be a stalker but too many horses with talent will be ahead of him. ​

9. Hofburg. (3 1-1-0). Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Odds: 20-1.

Another lightly race colt. An exceptional sire in Tapit. Bill Mott is a good one. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is probably more aggressive than his brother but also one of the best riders in the land. The colt could be a closer and that has the potential to factor in exotic wagering. I don't see him winning but he should be evaluated with respect. Much has been made of the #1 spot not winning the Derby since 1985 but of posts 1 through 10, number 9 has the longest drought with 1972's Riva Ridge.​

10. My Boy Jack (10-3-3-2). Trainer: Keith Desormeaux. Jockey: Kent Desormeaux. Odds: 20-1.

He could factor as a closer. Kent Desormeaux has been around the block a few times. The colt is 2-for-5 on dirt as he tried turf just as often. I don't see him winning but hitting the board is a possibility.​

11. Bolt d’Oro (6 4-1-1). Trainer: Mick Ruiz. Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Odds: 8-1.

He was the top pick for many handicappers early on in preps. I never had him in my top five but he is still gifted and can top the ticket. He will have three riders the last four races. Not many thought he'd be 8-to-1 a few weeks ago. Has he already run his best race? That has yet to be determined. One other note: when horses enter gates, the 1 and 11 are the first set entered. Which means the horse in the 11 slot waits longer than any other (along with the 1). Some horses don't like that.​

12. Enticed (6 3-1-1). Trainer: Kieran McLaughlin. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Odds: 30-1.

My sentimental pick. Junior Alvarado winning the KY Derby would be just under Calvin Borel and Chris Antley winning. Garrett Gomez, too, if he had ever won a Triple Crown race despite 13 Breeders Cup wins which is still surpassed by only three riders each of whom had many more starts). But back to this horse who was slighted if not robbed (thoughts of many) in the Wood Memorial by the decision of the New York stewards (John Velazquez is later fined but not DQ'd for the winning ride). Enticed could be fractured because of that race. If he wins, that would be the ultimate retribution. Unfortunately, much would have to go his way. The only time out of the money in six starts was when Alvarado did not ride. No #12 has not been in the money (top three) since the nearly impeccable Afleet Alex in 2005.​

13. Bravazo (8 3-1-1). Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey: Luis Contreras. Odds: 50-1.

Gary Stevens was replaced by Luis Contreras. Wayne Lukas still has the ability to shock. Bravazo has run at Churchill more than any other entry with three prior starts. I don't see much of an impression with this horse. Then again, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby didn't he?! Birdstone won the Belmont, didn't he?! If you subscribe to the theory that anything is possible this could be your play. ​

14. Mendelssohn (7 4-1-0). Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Odds: 5-1

No European-trained runner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Most necessary boxes have been checked. He was purchased as a yearling for $3,000,000 and if he wins this race would be the most expensive Derby winner. He handled the travel with his Breeders' Cup win. He handled turf-to-dirt where he is 2-for-2 lifetime on the latter surface. The pace may be an issue if he sits mid-pack or deeper. Another post position number facing a dismal history, the #14 has not won a KY Derby since 1961 but that is more coincidental and curiosity than anything of significance. ​

15. Instilled Regard (7 2-2-1) . Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer. Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke. Odds: 50-1

I don't see the horse making much of an imprint. He seems to have tailed from his earlier starts. Capable young rider and a wily veteran trainer but there is too much talent in this race to overcome.​

16. Magnum Moon (4 4-0-0) Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Luis Saez. Odds: 6-1.

One of two horses (also Justify) who was unraced as a 2-year-old. His connections face the daunting fact that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby as an unraced 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Still, he is a perfect 4-for-4 this year including the gate-to-wire performance in the important Arkansas Derby. One of my top five runners since his first race. Luis Saez is getting close to the top of the heap in North America. He is that good. ​

17. Solomini (6 1-3-2). Trainer: Bob Baffert. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Odds: 30-1.

Good rider, great trainer and don't be too surprised if everyone puts it together here. A win is unlikely but he has the talent which did not generate the results some thought capable in the prep season. I doubt I will use him but he could be a contender for exotics. While the #17 post hasn't always been occupied, it has the dreaded stat to have never produced a KY Derby winner.​

18. Vino Rosso (5 3-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez .Odds: 12-1.

I said it then and I will say it now, I was surprised to see John Velazquez choose this horse as his KY Derby starter. That decision should not be overlooked because his intuitiveness as a rider and related ability to scout means he could sense something special. Not the best post, and even though Johnny V. likes the horse more so than Audible (and others) I am on board with those who think he should have been DQ'd in the Wood. That said, he gained valuable experience in the race. Terrific value if he is at 12-to-1.​

19. Noble Indy (4 3-0-1). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Odds: 30-1.

When Quip was a late defection, that opened the services of Florent Geroux to anyone looking for a Derby mount. Talk about hitting a home run. Not a desired post position but everything else seems favorable. If this is Pletcher's "fourth best" horse in the race, that is not exactly damning with faint praise but a win seems unlikely at this juncture. ​

20. Combatant (7 1-3-1). Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Odds: 50-1.

A horse I liked early in the preps but trouble seemed to follow. He can close but I don't see him making too much of an impact based on the skills of others. The rider-trainer connection is very successful as a team. ​

Also Eligible: Blended Citizen. Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Kyle Frey Odds: 50-1

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thursday's Belmont card is compelling if for one reason alone. Wesley Ward won 10 straight 2-year-old races at the recently concluded and very difficult Keeneland meet. That number is spellbinding. Tomorrow, there are two such races in which he has a pair entered and he is scheduled to have Gary Stevens and Albin Jimenez ride. This should be entertaining and enlightening if both ride in those races.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thursday's Belmont card is compelling if for one reason alone. Wesley Ward won 10 straight 2-year-old races at the recently concluded and very difficult Keeneland meet. That number is spellbinding. Tomorrow, there are two such races in which he has a pair entered and he is scheduled to have Gary Stevens and Albin Jimenez ride. This should be entertaining and enlightening if both ride in those races.

May 3, 2018

Belmont (New York):

• In race 1, Wesley Ward's pair finished first and second and paid a healthy $16.20 for each $1 wagered in winning exactas. In race 4, he won that as well. Nice profits!
• Rudy Rodriguez won three consecutive races. That doesn't happen much for trainers.
• Irad Ortiz, Jr. won three times.
• Oh, and New York changed the graphics on its simulcast feed, even slightly, for an improvement. It was mentioned here that the prior changes made for this meet were unappealing.

Laurel (Maryland):

• The $.50 Pick 4 paid over $5,700 to conclude the racing day.
• The $1 double paid over $500 following the finale.
• Race 10 had an $81.00 winner.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Record attendance for a Thursday prior to the Kentucky Derby: 48,134. Place was packed by the rail.
• The #1 post won 6 of 10 races Wednesday and also the opener today.
• Shocker in the $100,000 feature of 2-year-olds. The second choice on the board was scratched at the gate. Wesley Ward failed with a 2-year-old when his 2-to-5 was off-the-board. The winner at 19-to-1 was ridden by Carlos Villasana and trained by John Ennis. The jockey won for the 76th time in his career while the trainer won for the 15th time in his career.
• Following the finale, the $.50 Pick 5 paid over $15,000. The $.50 Pick 4 returned $5,500.
• Corey Lanerie hit the board in all six starts. He finished the day 2-3-1.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Three horses were singled in the finale as the $.20 Rainbow 6 approached $1,000,000. However, all three lost and those who won collected over $36,000. The carryover for tomorrow's card will be $827,000+. We could see the total exceed $1,000,000 this weekend.

 

[GKJ]

We've got 2 horses tomorrow running in the Oaks at 5/2 and 2/1 odds in a 14-horse field. Just don't like those kinds of odds, considering one of them is the 14. Still might be the best horse on the track though

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

If any inclement weather holds off this weekend, judging by todays numbers more attendance records could be written.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

We've got 2 horses tomorrow running in the Oaks at 5/2 and 2/1 odds in a 14-horse field. Just don't like those kinds of odds, considering one of them is the 14. Still might be the best horse on the track though

Yep, too skinny. I'm going with Coach Rocks.