Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building - Locked in until July

[Gurglesons]

All things considered (age, health, cap hit, opportunity, etc) I'd move Letang. But again, it'd have to be the right deal.

I just don’t see us realistically getting value in for even what Letang brings at the moment. He’s a 50 pt D man if he’s healthy.

Schultz in my opinion will likely price himself out by the end of his contract, or not live up to it. Either way, if we reshape the D I think you start with moving one of those two. Letang at his worst is still a 50 pt d-man that can play all situations. Schultz at his worst is a 30 pt d-man that can’t PK.

I don’t think Dumo has any value and I think Maatta still has too much potential.

 

[WDYT]

Comparing Sprong to Drouin and Guentzel kind of highlights my issues with the hysteria that he has provoked in some.

Sprong isn't Drouin. Drouin was a #3 overall pick, Sprong was a second rounder. There's a huge difference in pedigree. The most likely outcome for Sprong from the moment he was drafted is that he would bust. He's not a can't miss, blue chip prospect. He's always been a talented, but flawed, prospect. The expectation that Sprong would get called up and make a big impact on the playoffs is a dream.

And he's not Guentzel either. Guentzel was 22 when he played his first full pro season. Sprong has been 20 until recently. There's a huge difference in development there. Guentzel was a more refined product, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he was brought back to the NHL fairly quickly after his demotion and stayed there. It's also not going to be a coincidence when the same happens to Aston-Reese. The difference in which they're treating the situations is not random.

I just don't see anything out of the ordinary whatsoever in the way Sprong has been handled this year. It's extremely normal for a team to want a young prospect to play out a full season in the AHL.

 

[ColePens]

It has been an argument here for years that Letang is a bad pp QB but the stats have never borne that out.

You can say oh he just racks up points because how could you not on a PP with Sid/Geno, but there's no way to know if that would be true and the PP has still performed better with him than without as evidenced by the fact that it's converting at 2% higher this year with him than last year where Schultz mainly qbed it.

My take on it is this: The PP with #58 is equivalent to how Letang's career is. Highest of highs with some random lows. I've broken down my reasons plenty of times so i'm going to give a shorter version of them to save everyone time. This response is for @pixiesfanyo as well.

1) I feel the PP is more consistent with Schultz. Sure Letang can provide more insane high end raw talent with that group, but that group doesn't need it. It's not like Letang or Schultz are going to be the difference makers. It's all about #87, #71, and #81. Horny supplies the screens and Letang/Schultz play 5th wheel no matter what. A 1-2% difference isn't a number that is worth arguing. That should be an ebb and flow of time. Schultz has less highs and less lows. I'd like to be right there in the pocket of consistency. And if you need examples as to why - just watch how he managed the PP last year. Especially in key situations.

2) What Schultz brings that is different from Letang: An actual shot that the PK has to defend. I also think he's much better at moving and opening space up for 71/81. It's all about walking the line with hip movement. Sarge was the best as it.

3) I think the info will be impossible to find but is there a stat that shows SH chances against? I feel we face more with Letang even though his recovery is better than Schultz. Realistically I think that's because Letang takes more high risk chances. I'd rather have the 5th wheel be complimentary to those guys as opposed to trying to play hero as Letang does.

That's my reasoning. Doesn't mean i'm right. That's just my reasoning.

 

[Gurglesons]

My take on it is this: The PP with #58 is equivalent to how Letang's career is. Highest of highs with some random lows. I've broken down my reasons plenty of times so i'm going to give a shorter version of them to save everyone time. This response is for @pixiesfanyo as well.

1) I feel the PP is more consistent with Schultz. Sure Letang can provide more insane high end raw talent with that group, but that group doesn't need it. It's not like Letang or Schultz are going to be the difference makers. It's all about #87, #71, and #81. Horny supplies the screens and Letang/Schultz play 5th wheel no matter what. A 1-2% difference isn't a number that is worth arguing. That should be an ebb and flow of time. Schultz has less highs and less lows. I'd like to be right there in the pocket of consistency. And if you need examples as to why - just watch how he managed the PP last year. Especially in key situations.

2) What Schultz brings that is different from Letang: An actual shot that the PK has to defend. I also think he's much better at moving and opening space up for 71/81. It's all about walking the line with hip movement. Sarge was the best as it.

3) I think the info will be impossible to find but is there a stat that shows SH chances against? I feel we face more with Letang even though his recovery is better than Schultz. Realistically I think that's because Letang takes more high risk chances. I'd rather have the 5th wheel be complimentary to those guys as opposed to trying to play hero as Letang does.

That's my reasoning. Doesn't mean i'm right. That's just my reasoning.

I can agree with all of this.

Schultz simplifies the PP just like Hornqvist does.

I also think this is more aesthetic as their production is near identical except where it favors Letang. And as fans we have grown tired of Letang’s inefficiencies and amplify some of his bad traits.

Much like Sid getting so much flack this year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Comparing Sprong to Drouin and Guentzel kind of highlights my issues with the hysteria that he has provoked in some.

Sprong isn't Drouin. Drouin was a #3 overall pick, Sprong was a second rounder. There's a huge difference in pedigree. The most likely outcome for Sprong from the moment he was drafted is that he would bust. He's not a can't miss, blue chip prospect. He's always been a talented, but flawed, prospect. The expectation that Sprong would get called up and make a big impact on the playoffs is a dream.

And he's not Guentzel either. Guentzel was 22 when he played his first full pro season. Sprong has been 20 until recently. There's a huge difference in development there. Guentzel was a more refined product, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he was brought back to the NHL fairly quickly after his demotion and stayed there. It's also not going to be a coincidence when the same happens to Aston-Reese. The difference in which they're treating the situations is not random.

I just don't see anything out of the ordinary whatsoever in the way Sprong has been handled this year. It's extremely normal for a team to want a young prospect to play out a full season in the AHL.

There's no hysteria. Simply taking issue with a line-up decision and offering comparisons, and obviously no two players are exactly the same.

Sprong has a better draft pedigree than Guentzel, and in spite of Drouin's blue-chip pedigree, there's little to choose between the AHL/NHL production of Drouin's 21 year old performance in 2016 before he was recalled and Sprong's 21 year old performance now. Either pedigree matters, or it doesn't. Either performance matters, or it doesn't. Either age matters, or it doesn't. You're moving the goalposts depending on the comparison.

You may not have been here to see it, but the same arguments you're using against Sprong now are the same that were used against Guentzel last year. I know, because I disputed them then too.

The fact of the matter is that Sprong doesn't need to make a big impact in the NHL in order to justify being called up. He just has to be better than Sheary and Jooris.

 

[WDYT]

Calling it hysteria is definitely hyperbole, but the Sprong thing is just overblown. I think fans just need something to complain about so they pick on the fringes of the roster and this situation and magnify it because there's not much else that is questionable these days.

Just to be clear, my point simply is that Sprong is not a can't miss, stud prospect and he's not a finished product. I don't think the expectations for him should be that of a lottery pick (like Drouin) or a guy who went through college hockey. I really just can't see why so many people are fixated on him not being on the NHL roster, when it just seems so obvious. They don't have a big need for what he'd provide right now, and he is still very raw and in need of development time.

 

[ColePens]

I can agree with all of this.

Schultz simplifies the PP just like Hornqvist does.

I also think this is more aesthetic as their production is near identical except where it favors Letang. And as fans we have grown tired of Letang’s inefficiencies and amplify some of his bad traits.

Much like Sid getting so much flack this year.

Sid proved to me in the Flyers game he's coasting to preserve energy. Even though it sounds weird to say because he's a guy who lives/breathes hockey.

Letang. I think it's f***ing ridiculous people didn't expect some struggles. He's a guy who prides himself on training and preparation. He admitted he didn't get to do what he normally does. No shit he's struggling for that reason. And even though I get frustrated, even I can agree his mistakes are spotlighted 10x more than any other player. If he makes a mistake and if Dumo/Schultz make the same exact mistake, Letang will get 10 posts to Schultz/Dumos 2-3.

I'm not worried about it. I just hope Letang has a magical postseason. One that leads us to another Cup. I have my doubts but then i'll say I hope he rebounds strong next year.

 

[Peat]

I have to say, it would be nice if making comparisons here didn't lead to someone automatically pointing out the differences, rather than people considering the similarities. Very difficult to find perfect comparisons.

I'll just say that it reminds me of the Drouin situation in 2016. Keeping a raw talent in the AHL who had decent production and good underlying numbers on account of "game refinements" in favour of a limited-upside plug even when we're dealing with injuries and a 1st line that looks out of sorts doesn't seem necessary.

Like Tampa, we have the horses to see us through regardless. But the Lightning got better that year when they gave him an honest chance.

There was also that time last year when we were icing Kunitz regularly with Sid despite how poorly he was playing, and similar rationalizations were being made about Guentzel being demoted (he was more productive than Sprong, but nonetheless). We're pretty fortunate he eventually got the call.

I don't think Guentzel coming back was fortunate - I think it was always the plan if he kept doing the right things, which he did. They wanted him to take his taste back, work on a few things in his game, and come back stronger. And I think they wanted Sprong to do the same thing but he hasn't.

But maybe he should be up regardless. You make a good point with Drouin. However, one big difference that I think does play a bit against Sprong here is who Drouin played with. He was with Filppula and Palat - two steady cats who aren't going to be drawing the opponent's best. The Sprong shaped hole in our team is with Sid and that brings a lot of extra heat with it. So much I wouldn't do it? I dunno.

I'd really love Sprong to start putting up some numbers in the AHL and force the issue. Right or wrong, he's not going to do it with a ES goal drought. But that's not gonna happen with a scratch and I'd love to know what's up with that.

3) I think the info will be impossible to find but is there a stat that shows SH chances against? I feel we face more with Letang even though his recovery is better than Schultz. Realistically I think that's because Letang takes more high risk chances. I'd rather have the 5th wheel be complimentary to those guys as opposed to trying to play hero as Letang does.

Tanger/Kessel/Sid has 170:03 on the PP, in which time there's been 50 CA, 35 SA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCA and 2 GA - both High Danger.

Schultz has 75:40 with that pair and in that time there's been 24 CA, 14 SA, 10 SCA, 3 HDCA and 0 GA.

I'd say that confirms your suspicion. All numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

 

[Gurglesons]

Sid proved to me in the Flyers game he's coasting to preserve energy. Even though it sounds weird to say because he's a guy who lives/breathes hockey.

Letang. I think it's ****ing ridiculous people didn't expect some struggles. He's a guy who prides himself on training and preparation. He admitted he didn't get to do what he normally does. No **** he's struggling for that reason. And even though I get frustrated, even I can agree his mistakes are spotlighted 10x more than any other player. If he makes a mistake and if Dumo/Schultz make the same exact mistake, Letang will get 10 posts to Schultz/Dumos 2-3.

I'm not worried about it. I just hope Letang has a magical postseason. One that leads us to another Cup. I have my doubts but then i'll say I hope he rebounds strong next year.

In response to your chances against. Schultz rate on ice on the powerplay is 11.6 shots against versus Letang at 9.9 shots against per 60. Schultz’s SF% is 80 compared to Letang’s SF% is 85. So, Letang statistically sees less chances against.

 

[Gurglesons]

I have to say, it would be nice if making comparisons here didn't lead to someone automatically pointing out the differences, rather than people considering the similarities. Very difficult to find perfect comparisons.



I don't think Guentzel coming back was fortunate - I think it was always the plan if he kept doing the right things, which he did. They wanted him to take his taste back, work on a few things in his game, and come back stronger. And I think they wanted Sprong to do the same thing but he hasn't.

But maybe he should be up regardless. You make a good point with Drouin. However, one big difference that I think does play a bit against Sprong here is who Drouin played with. He was with Filppula and Palat - two steady cats who aren't going to be drawing the opponent's best. The Sprong shaped hole in our team is with Sid and that brings a lot of extra heat with it. So much I wouldn't do it? I dunno.

I'd really love Sprong to start putting up some numbers in the AHL and force the issue. Right or wrong, he's not going to do it with a ES goal drought. But that's not gonna happen with a scratch and I'd love to know what's up with that.



Tanger/Kessel/Sid has 170:03 on the PP, in which time there's been 50 CA, 35 SA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCA and 2 GA - both High Danger.

Schultz has 75:40 with that pair and in that time there's been 24 CA, 14 SA, 10 SCA, 3 HDCA and 0 GA.

I'd say that confirms your suspicion. All numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

I think it isn’t beneficial to go off raw totals as Letang has twice as much time on the ice.

 

[Peat]

I think it isn’t beneficial to go off raw totals as Letang has twice as much time on the ice.

Over twice. I'm just too lazy to reduce it to x/60 or times Schultz by the 2.2something I'd have to make him equal to Letang, so I'm dumping the stats out there and relying on other people to understand/do the work for me.

In any case, I trust we're all intelligent enough to see that while we give up more Chances and Shots with Schultz, it starts getting pretty wild with Scoring Chances and High Danger Chances with Letang. And I think it's that which Cole was getting at.

 

[Pancakes]

My take on it is this: The PP with #58 is equivalent to how Letang's career is. Highest of highs with some random lows. I've broken down my reasons plenty of times so i'm going to give a shorter version of them to save everyone time. This response is for @pixiesfanyo as well.

1) I feel the PP is more consistent with Schultz. Sure Letang can provide more insane high end raw talent with that group, but that group doesn't need it. It's not like Letang or Schultz are going to be the difference makers. It's all about #87, #71, and #81. Horny supplies the screens and Letang/Schultz play 5th wheel no matter what. A 1-2% difference isn't a number that is worth arguing. That should be an ebb and flow of time. Schultz has less highs and less lows. I'd like to be right there in the pocket of consistency. And if you need examples as to why - just watch how he managed the PP last year. Especially in key situations.

2) What Schultz brings that is different from Letang: An actual shot that the PK has to defend. I also think he's much better at moving and opening space up for 71/81. It's all about walking the line with hip movement. Sarge was the best as it.

3) I think the info will be impossible to find but is there a stat that shows SH chances against? I feel we face more with Letang even though his recovery is better than Schultz. Realistically I think that's because Letang takes more high risk chances. I'd rather have the 5th wheel be complimentary to those guys as opposed to trying to play hero as Letang does.

That's my reasoning. Doesn't mean i'm right. That's just my reasoning.

I think Letang is good at things on the PP that maybe people don't always pick up on. For example I think his skating ability lets him keep pucks in on the point where other dmen might not have the mobility to do that. His skating helps with breakout as well. His passing on the PP is underrated even though he has some laughably bad sequences with that sometimes.

There's a reason he puts up more points than Schultz.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think Letang is good at things on the PP that maybe people don't always pick up on. For example I think his skating ability lets him keep pucks in on the point where other dmen might not have the mobility to do that. His skating helps with breakout as well. His passing on the PP is underrated even though he has some laughably bad sequences with that sometimes.

There's a reason he puts up more points than Schultz.

Letang's a superior transition player than Schultz. He's also probably better at "on the rush" scoring than Schultz. I think that's where he gets a bulk of his overall points.

IMO, Schultz is superior when the puck is more stationary and the Pens are set up in the offensive zone. His shot is more of a threat, as well.

If you could combine Letang's ability to move the puck up the ice and generate on the rush, with Schultz's offensive zone ability when already set up, you'd have Erik Karlsson.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Calling it hysteria is definitely hyperbole, but the Sprong thing is just overblown. I think fans just need something to complain about so they pick on the fringes of the roster and this situation and magnify it because there's not much else that is questionable these days.

Just to be clear, my point simply is that Sprong is not a can't miss, stud prospect and he's not a finished product. I don't think the expectations for him should be that of a lottery pick (like Drouin) or a guy who went through college hockey. I really just can't see why so many people are fixated on him not being on the NHL roster, when it just seems so obvious. They don't have a big need for what he'd provide right now, and he is still very raw and in need of development time.

That's definitely true. We have it pretty damn good.

I maintain that Sprong should be given a shot when the alternatives are playing as poorly as they are and he could be a legit scoring threat (low risk/high reward), but it's a relatively small issue. We can clearly win without him, and by the time the games become important we should have ZAR and Simon to work with if Sheary keeps stinking it up.

 

[Peat]

Letang has 13 PP giveaways. That's really rough.

That said... 203 SF, 96 HDCF and 36 GF in Letang's minutes. 62 SF, 27 HDCF and 13 GF in Schultz's. We actually have a higher shooting percentage with Schultz on the ice, but we're generating about three times as much offence with Letang, which is pretty cool considering he's only played about 2.2 times as much.

Hmm.

For both with Geno and Horny:

Schultz - 43:27, SF 37, HDCF 18, GF 5, SH% 13.51
Letang - 121:48, SF 153, HDCF 72, GF24, SH%15.69

Pretty marked difference even with a full strength unit.

 

[Gurglesons]

Letang's a superior transition player than Schultz. He's also probably better at "on the rush" scoring than Schultz. I think that's where he gets a bulk of his overall points.

IMO, Schultz is superior when the puck is more stationary and the Pens are set up in the offensive zone. His shot is more of a threat, as well.

If you could combine Letang's ability to move the puck up the ice and generate on the rush, with Schultz's offensive zone ability when already set up, you'd have Erik Karlsson.

I mean Letang produced at an EK like rate at EKs age.

 

[Gurglesons]

Letang has 13 PP giveaways. That's really rough.

That said... 203 SF, 96 HDCF and 36 GF in Letang's minutes. 62 SF, 27 HDCF and 13 GF in Schultz's. We actually have a higher shooting percentage with Schultz on the ice, but we're generating about three times as much offence with Letang, which is pretty cool considering he's only played about 2.2 times as much.

Hmm.

For both with Geno and Horny:

Schultz - 43:27, SF 37, HDCF 18, GF 5, SH% 13.51
Letang - 121:48, SF 153, HDCF 72, GF24, SH%15.69

Pretty marked difference even with a full strength unit.

Letang is top three in terms of offensive defensemen the five years before 2016.

He is a monster offensively.

 

[Jacob]

If Sprong wasn’t even in the picture as far as this team’s future plans I don’t think they’d be being as hard on him as they have been. Instead they’d just be double shifting him in the A and letting him pile up points to increase his trade value.

He might still be dealt at some point but I think he’s basically pencilled into next year’s lineup.

And as an RFA it doesn’t benefit the team to glue him to Sid’s hip and let him rack up easy points.

 

[chethejet]

Sprong has the upside to light the lamp. Sid needs a winger who has the skill set to finish. NO other Pen has his upside. He will learn to play positional D and help in the transition to open ice for Sid.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If Sprong wasn’t even in the picture as far as this team’s future plans I don’t think they’d be being as hard on him as they have been. Instead they’d just be double shifting him in the A and letting him pile up points to increase his trade value.

He might still be dealt at some point but I think he’s basically pencilled into next year’s lineup.

And as an RFA it doesn’t benefit the team to glue him to Sid’s hip and let him rack up easy points.

I considered that too. If he clicked, ultimately he'd be worth it, but I could see the team not wanting to artificially inflate his totals before a contract negotiation if he didn't force their hand.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean Letang produced at an EK like rate at EKs age.

I mean he didn't, but other than that, sure. That's like saying Giroux produced at a Crosby-like rate.

 

[Peat]

I considered that too. If he clicked, ultimately he'd be worth it, but I could see the team not wanting to artificially inflate his totals before a contract negotiation if he didn't force their hand.

Ditto. I'd rather pay him an extra mil a year on his bridge deal and have a 5% better shot at Stanley because of him catching fire with Sid over the play-offs than do neither.

And an extra three games to see whether he caught fire wasn't going to move the needle on his contract demands much.

 

[vodeni]

I think Letang is good at things on the PP that maybe people don't always pick up on. For example I think his skating ability lets him keep pucks in on the point where other dmen might not have the mobility to do that. His skating helps with breakout as well. His passing on the PP is underrated even though he has some laughably bad sequences with that sometimes.

There's a reason he puts up more points than Schultz.

two words: letang and breakout (on PP) should never ever be uttered together

 

[Shady Machine]

I think we should move one of the D.

too mediocre to be paid as much as they are.

Dumo, I'd keep
Maatta, move for the right price.
Letang, Keep but if someone blows us away, trade him. I think he'll rebound

Schultz at 5.5 makes the most sense to trade imo. Maybe for a LW.

Yeah let’s get worse on D to get better at wing. Makes sense

 

[PensandCaps]

Yeah let’s get worse on D to get better at wing. Makes sense

LW is a big issue after Geuntzel.