Confirmed with Link: Ryan Johansen gone

[Armourboy]

That's such an enormous gamble. We trade #15 +#24, or maybe a 1st next year (which could be top 10), Askarov, and a Tomasino-type to hope we get that level of player 3 years from now? If it doesn't pan out that is a catastrophic trade.

That seems awful steep for a guy who won't be in the NHL for 3 years and you have no idea if he will ever be here.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Given Barry's quotes on Saros, let's assume he stays. So, then they must be planning on extending him after this year, otherwise the following year is his UFA year. With that extension, you close the door on Askarov. One more full-time year in Milwaukee, then what? Caddy for Saros for the next 7 years and wait until you're 30 to get the lead gig?

Askarov was our #1 pick. You don't burn a #1 pick and not create a path for him if he performs. Askarov has performed. He needs more seasoning, but he's not Brian Findley.

Yikes. I really don't see that kind of timeline. I see there are a ton of other posts that I haven't read yet, so I'm probably preaching to some choirs here.

But. We don't even know if Askarov will EVER be an NHL-caliber goalie. For starters. He has holes in his game you can drive a Mack truck through. And I like Askarov. But. He's a LOOOONG way off.

Here's my timeline:
2023-24: Saros/Lankinen
2024-25: Saros/Somebody (it could be Askarov is he takes a nice leap in development, or it could be another Lankinen-ish 1-year patch)
summer 2025: Saros extended on 7x$7Mish contract
2025-26: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2026-27: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2027-28: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov starts pushing Saros
2028-29: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is seriously pushing Saros
2029-30: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is duelling Saros for #1
2030-31: we dare to dream Saros/Askarov tossup
2031-32: we dare to dream Askarov takes over and Saros is the Rinne-veteran-mentor

Of course, the NHL is going to greenlight some Expansion before this timeline expires. At that point, we are going to lose 1 of these guys either way. *IF* all the daring and dreaming pans out on Askarov!

It's just putting a huge cart in front of the horse to be thinking past this timeline. And again, I love Askarov. But things don't usually work out to the max of our dreams and prospect love affairs, alas.

 

[Armourboy]

Yikes. I really don't see that kind of timeline. I see there are a ton of other posts that I haven't read yet, so I'm probably preaching to some choirs here.

But. We don't even know if Askarov will EVER be an NHL-caliber goalie. For starters. He has holes in his game you can drive a Mack truck through. And I like Askarov. But. He's a LOOOONG way off.

Here's my timeline:
2023-24: Saros/Lankinen
2024-25: Saros/Somebody (it could be Askarov is he takes a nice leap in development, or it could be another Lankinen-ish 1-year patch)
summer 2025: Saros extended on 7x$7Mish contract
2025-26: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2026-27: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2027-28: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov starts pushing Saros
2028-29: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is seriously pushing Saros
2029-30: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is duelling Saros for #1
2030-31: we dare to dream Saros/Askarov tossup
2031-32: we dare to dream Askarov takes over and Saros is the Rinne-veteran-mentor

Of course, the NHL is going to greenlight some Expansion before this timeline expires. At that point, we are going to lose 1 of these guys either way. *IF* all the daring and dreaming pans out on Askarov!

It's just putting a huge cart in front of the horse to be thinking past this timeline. And again, I love Askarov. But things don't usually work out to the max of our dreams and prospect love affairs, alas.

I think that's probably a bit slow as far as timeline goes, but the idea is there. Personally I think if Trotz makes the decision to extend Saros and keep him long term I think Askarov is already out of the picture.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

As I said in my other post, I think you have the same problem lots of us do, we think Saros and Askarov are worth way more than they are. The return on both will just leave you in a place where you just end up thinking you should have not even traded them to begin with.

I really do think that this latest message from Trotz is the point he is trying to make, It ain't that either aren't available for a move, he just isn't getting anything of substance to make it worth it.

I know you already get this, but it's not even that "we think Saros and Askarov are worth way more than they are"... it's that: they ARE worth way more than that TO US. I think we have a handle on what the market would bear... which is wholly inadequate... as well as they're much higher value to our team.

 

[LCPreds]

Man...just imagining blowing a mass of draft/prospect capital so we could take a Russian who is locked into the next 3 years in Russia. Guess the only worse scenario for some Preds fans would be taking a guy from New England/New York who is committed to the NCAA.

But it doesn’t have to be Michkov. If any of the scouts think any of the other top 4-5 are good to go, and Barry wants that C, then do it.

I’m just going to stick by this logic: We either think Trotz was a good hire or not. If we believe he was a good hire then I guess we need to trust him for at least a couple of years.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think that's probably a bit slow as far as timeline goes, but the idea is there. Personally I think if Trotz makes the decision to extend Saros and keep him long term I think Askarov is already out of the picture.

But I think you take the conservative timeline approach when you are managing a team. Plan conservatively, and if you are "surprised" by things going ahead of timeline... bonus!

Like I said, though... Expansion is ultimately going to throw a monkey wrench into such planning. The NHL is going to love the idea that NHL teams are worth $1B+ and cities are already lining up. That is 100% going to intrude on the timeline. I wouldn't change my default, even knowing that, though. Let it proceed, sign the Saros extension anyway. And then just deal with whatever the fallout is from the Expansion issue.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

That seems awful steep for a guy who won't be in the NHL for 3 years and you have no idea if he will ever be here.

I should note that Michkov is not a center, so he may not be the target (and the contract wouldn't be an issue). I was also thinking along lines that Habs fans would accept (just fixated on the #5 pick for some reason) and, as we all know, what they'd accept is probably about twice as much as it would take in real life to make a deal.

 

[Armourboy]

But I think you take the conservative timeline approach when you are managing a team. Plan conservatively, and if you are "surprised" by things going ahead of timeline... bonus!

Like I said, though... Expansion is ultimately going to throw a monkey wrench into such planning. The NHL is going to love the idea that NHL teams are worth $1B+ and cities are already lining up. That is 100% going to intrude on the timeline. I wouldn't change my default, even knowing that, though. Let it proceed, sign the Saros extension anyway. And then just deal with whatever the fallout is from the Expansion issue.

Problem is I don't think your timeline is conservative, I think it's less than that, like a snail stuck in glue is more like what you have listed. You are basically talking about Askarov being 27-28 years old before he can eclipse Saros. I think if he isn't pushing him in 3-4 he won't even be part of the plans long term.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

But it doesn’t have to be Michkov. If any of the scouts think any of the other top 4-5 are good to go, and Barry wants that C, then do it.

I’m just going to stick by this logic: We either think Trotz was a good hire or not. If we believe he was a good hire then I guess we need to trust him for at least a couple of years.

Nah, I'm going to judge Trotz on every individual move he makes, on a case-by-case basis. And then be capable of doing the running average.

I do give him credit for all this year's Trade Deadline moves, btw. So he has a huge head start. I think we only got "leaked" the info that he was the incoming GM strictly BECAUSE the Deadline moves were forwarded to him. So I think he had a lot of input on those, even while he acknowledges Poile's help.

Anyway, I don't need to blanket trust him over any time range. He can make good moves, bad moves, and they are all worth dissecting on their individual merits. He WILL make some bad moves. Everybody does. But hopefully they aren't many.

FWIW, I am so far very optimistic on him. He kind of covers every base under the sun in his expansive interviews, but I think if you really take in The Whole of what he's saying... he has all the right ideas. (But I will get that confirmed within the next 1 week!)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Problem is I don't think your timeline is conservative, I think it's less than that, like a snail stuck in glue is more like what you have listed. You are basically talking about Askarov being 27-28 years old before he can eclipse Saros. I think if he isn't pushing him in 3-4 he won't even be part of the plans long term.

Oh. Ok, well I guess I just think Saros is that good, and Askarov is that "dubious" maybe? I don't know, but since I'm 100% certain that Expansion is going to come before this, I don't think it matters. We're going to lose 1 of them to Expansion before any of this (assuming Askarov pans out), guaranteed.

I can understand if somebody thinks my timeline is "1 year slow", I'm intentionally aiming for that. If somebody thinks it's more than that, well, I just don't agree. Nevertheless, Expansion is still going to disrupt everything. And nevertheless-nevertheless... we still have no idea if Askarov will ever be that good. So it's a total dreamworld regardless. Almost not even worth projecting. We have to see how Askarov progresses. And we're going to have to extend Saros before we know the answer on that, regardless. So how you draw out the timeline after that is kind of immaterial. It's just an exercise in blowing hot air. Which I like to do anyway, of course!

 

[glenngineer]

BoJ to be clear I’m not saying I want to tank. Im just simply saying that when a goalie is worth 24 points (I read that here, per internal analytics, eye test approved) it means you’re probably under siege pretty frequently which means it isn’t that fun to watch in the arena (to me). I’m not saying any more or less than that.

And therein lies the problem to me. If your goalie is stealing you 25% of your points, that’s not a recipe for success come playoff time. An elite goalie masks deficiencies in the regular season. When the playoffs start, those problems become glaring and elite goalies can’t make up that ground.

 

[glenngineer]

What if a GM comes to Barry on Wednesday and goes, Askarov, 15 and one of Evangelista/Tomasino and you’re in the top 5 and you’re getting one of the players you covet, if you’re BT, do you do it? What if it’s Saros instead of Askarov? Do you do it?

If you know you’re a year or two away from turning it around and you get that center that you covet, I think you have to do it.

I’m interested to see what Barry has up his sleeve.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

What if a GM comes to Barry on Wednesday and goes, Askarov, 15 and one of Evangelista/Tomasino and you’re in the top 5 and you’re getting one of the players you covet, if you’re BT, do you do it? What if it’s Saros instead of Askarov? Do you do it?

If you know you’re a year or two away from turning it around and you get that center that you covet, I think you have to do it.

I’m interested to see what Barry has up his sleeve.

Absolutely you do it. You trust your scouts and if the center is there and you give up Saros, #15 and tomasino. Absolutely.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What if a GM comes to Barry on Wednesday and goes, Askarov, 15 and one of Evangelista/Tomasino and you’re in the top 5 and you’re getting one of the players you covet, if you’re BT, do you do it? What if it’s Saros instead of Askarov? Do you do it?

If you know you’re a year or two away from turning it around and you get that center that you covet, I think you have to do it.

I’m interested to see what Barry has up his sleeve.

I wouldn't. I get how the days leading up to the draft lead to an intense fury of hype for the draft prospects. But let's be real. "Top-5" guys turn out to be "meh" more often than not. Some are great, most are "decent", even a few bust entirely.

I have more than ample reservations about Askarov, although I really like Evangelista, and to a lesser extent Tomasino. But these are "great picks" who are already 2-3 years down the road of panning out successfully.

I wouldn't cash in 2 of these "already winning tickets" + our best shot at another in #15 for a new clean slate lottery ticket.

Again, I'm no NHL scout and I'm not watching these guys play. But to me, if the pros were REALLY _THAT_ convinced that a guy like Michkov was sooooooooooooo special, then NOBODY is talking about him falling. Bedard at #1, ok, he's universally accepted as "special". The rest... we are just riding the annual hype train from our armchair seats. They aren't in the "3-for-1" category.

 

[PredsV82]

I'll have to wander over and see what the main board denizens who mocked us for giving away Joey as a cap dump think about the Bruins giving away Taylor Hall for nothing

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'll have to wander over and see what the main board denizens who mocked us for giving away Joey as a cap dump think about the Bruins giving away Taylor Hall for nothing

In EASports NHL23, Taylor Hall is probably at least an 88 if Joey is an 85, though.

 

[herzausstein]

I'll have to wander over and see what the main board denizens who mocked us for giving away Joey as a cap dump think about the Bruins giving away Taylor Hall for nothing

Im actually kindof surprised they didnt have to give something to get rid of him at full price. Not much different production over the past 3 years.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

What if a GM comes to Barry on Wednesday and goes, Askarov, 15 and one of Evangelista/Tomasino and you’re in the top 5 and you’re getting one of the players you covet, if you’re BT, do you do it? What if it’s Saros instead of Askarov? Do you do it?

If you know you’re a year or two away from turning it around and you get that center that you covet, I think you have to do it.

I’m interested to see what Barry has up his sleeve.

In a second. Odds are one of these guys isn't going to pan out. Hopefully you send the right one away (Tom is my preference), but if this was the cost I assume we'd already be in the top 5.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

What if a GM comes to Barry on Wednesday and goes, Askarov, 15 and one of Evangelista/Tomasino and you’re in the top 5 and you’re getting one of the players you covet, if you’re BT, do you do it? What if it’s Saros instead of Askarov? Do you do it?

If you know you’re a year or two away from turning it around and you get that center that you covet, I think you have to do it.

I’m interested to see what Barry has up his sleeve.

I do it for a center, I probably don't for Michkov.

 

[Armourboy]

I do it for a center, I probably don't for Michkov.

That's where I am. If its a guy you believe will be your #1 center for the next 10-12 years you do it in a heartbeat. Now if it's just a winger or a Dman that's a different story.

 

[wmupreds]

I'll just say it more clearly. Everything about Michkov's play and production supports what was originally thought about him: he's the clear cut 2nd best player in this draft, and probably closer to Bedard than he is Fantilli. I don't care if he's a winger. Teams are going to regret passing on him and it's only impatience and GMs fearing for their jobs that will cause it to happen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I do it for a center, I probably don't for Michkov.

Who are these centers? Smith? Who's next, Dvorsky or Danielson? I just don't see how these players rate as projecting to be more than the next Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes. That's who you usually get with a #3/4/6 overall pick. Good players, but not franchise players. Not worth piling up assets to trade up for.

Michkov might be different. He also might not. I read both sides of that argument here, in equal amounts, and come to the conclusion that nobody really knows. And if he isn't drafted ahead of those Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes, then the people in the NHL who actually do know best are saying they don't think he's THAT special either.

It's just the usual overhyping that comes every year, and builds up the closer you get to the draft.

 

[Kat Predator]

Who are these centers? Smith? Who's next, Dvorsky or Danielson? I just don't see how these players rate as projecting to be more than the next Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes. That's who you usually get with a #3/4/6 overall pick. Good players, but not franchise players. Not worth piling up assets to trade up for.

Michkov might be different. He also might not. I read both sides of that argument here, in equal amounts, and come to the conclusion that nobody really knows. And if he isn't drafted ahead of those Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes, then the people in the NHL who actually do know best are saying they don't think he's THAT special either.

It's just the usual overhyping that comes every year, and builds up the closer you get to the draft.

It's a cannonball. The size of the splash is what matters.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Who are these centers? Smith? Who's next, Dvorsky or Danielson? I just don't see how these players rate as projecting to be more than the next Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes. That's who you usually get with a #3/4/6 overall pick. Good players, but not franchise players. Not worth piling up assets to trade up for.

Michkov might be different. He also might not. I read both sides of that argument here, in equal amounts, and come to the conclusion that nobody really knows. And if he isn't drafted ahead of those Johansens, Glasses, and Duchenes, then the people in the NHL who actually do know best are saying they don't think he's THAT special either.

It's just the usual overhyping that comes every year, and builds up the closer you get to the draft.

I guess that's Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith. Look, I'm not a hype-buyer when It comes to draft picks either, we hear the same type of stuff every year about these prospects and it rarely seems to pan out that way. That said, if we are making a big move in the draft and spending that level of assets, I'm more amenable to it for a position we've always historically lacked and is generally vital to organizational success.

I'm willing to take a miss on Michkov even if he does match the hype level because winger is an easier position to fill in the gaps for and you rarely see teams finding lasting success when built around a winger--in the cap era that would really only be Chicago around Kane (and do they even win anything without Toews?) and Washington with Ovechkin. Tampa with Kucherov is also maybe there, but they just had a deep forward group and he was a later round pick anyway. Landeskog and Kessel are the only other notable wingers taken top 5, both won Cups, neither won anything when the "centerpiece" of their squads.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Yikes. I really don't see that kind of timeline. I see there are a ton of other posts that I haven't read yet, so I'm probably preaching to some choirs here.

But. We don't even know if Askarov will EVER be an NHL-caliber goalie. For starters. He has holes in his game you can drive a Mack truck through. And I like Askarov. But. He's a LOOOONG way off.

Here's my timeline:
2023-24: Saros/Lankinen
2024-25: Saros/Somebody (it could be Askarov is he takes a nice leap in development, or it could be another Lankinen-ish 1-year patch)
summer 2025: Saros extended on 7x$7Mish contract
2025-26: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2026-27: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov as backup
2027-28: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov starts pushing Saros
2028-29: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is seriously pushing Saros
2029-30: Saros/we dare to dream Askarov is duelling Saros for #1
2030-31: we dare to dream Saros/Askarov tossup
2031-32: we dare to dream Askarov takes over and Saros is the Rinne-veteran-mentor

Of course, the NHL is going to greenlight some Expansion before this timeline expires. At that point, we are going to lose 1 of these guys either way. *IF* all the daring and dreaming pans out on Askarov!

It's just putting a huge cart in front of the horse to be thinking past this timeline. And again, I love Askarov. But things don't usually work out to the max of our dreams and prospect love affairs, alas.

I feel like the years in Red can be condensed by a couple years. I'm totally with you that Askarov is way off and that, currently, Saros is one of the best goalies in the league. However, I just can't imagine the plan will be to not embed him as our starter for another decade (assuming his progress continues upward). I'm also not sure Saros can stay above average for THAT long.