Confirmed with Link: Ryan Johansen gone

[LCPreds]

Are the Avs up against the contract limit?

yes

 

[herzausstein]

yes

Do ufas and rfas count as contracts against the team once the postseason is done? Capfriendly has Colorado at 28/50 contracts.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Do ufas and rfas count as contracts against the team once the postseason is done? Capfriendly has Colorado at 28/50 contracts.

Well, CapFriendly jumped ahead to a "post July 1st" view.

Which tbh, I appreciated.

But technically yes, we are still on the past season's contracts and statuses, so all the impending RFAs and UFAs still count. Albeit they've also got newly signed prospects and contracts in the mix now too on CapFriendly. So unless you really wanted to do some legwork, it's hard to tell just from there if they were at the contract limit or not. Not many teams were. But if Avs fans or reporters are saying they were, I'd believe them. Hence the Galchenyuk-instead-of-Future-Considerations inclusion.

 

[herzausstein]

Well, CapFriendly jumped ahead to a "post July 1st" view.

Which tbh, I appreciated.

But technically yes, we are still on the past season's contracts and statuses, so all the impending RFAs and UFAs still count. Albeit they've also got newly signed prospects and contracts in the mix now too on CapFriendly. So unless you really wanted to do some legwork, it's hard to tell just from there if they were at the contract limit or not. Not many teams were. But if Avs fans or reporters are saying they were, I'd believe them. Hence the Galchenyuk-instead-of-Future-Considerations inclusion.

Makes sense. Thanks

 

[Armourboy]

I think this tanking debate is kind of moot because the team already is pretty well stocked with prospects and picks many of whom are ready or close to it. Unless we got really unlucky it shouldn't take some decade long rebuild to get back in contention even if Saros got traded or something (which sounds very unlikely).

It doesn't take but a couple of those promising prospects failing to turn it into a decade long rebuild. Askarov is the prime example, and is the reason Trotz is not trading Saros for a late 1st and some B/C level prospect. If he is going to take the risk of putting all of his eggs in one basket for the future it needs to be worth it, and it sounds like what teams are offering just doesn't seem worth it.

I'll say it again though, most people around here don't remember what it was like to actually watch bad hockey night in and night out and going to a game knowing you had basically no chance of winning. It's brutal and your hope will dry up quickly.

I also say I don't think people understand how bad Hynes is as a coach. Just imagine how bad his history would look if it wasn't for an insane season from Hall in NJ, and career years from multiple players here. Those things happened in spite of him, not because of anything he did. I don't know if Brunette will be any better, but he can't be much worse imo.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Given Barry's quotes on Saros, let's assume he stays. So, then they must be planning on extending him after this year, otherwise the following year is his UFA year. With that extension, you close the door on Askarov. One more full-time year in Milwaukee, then what? Caddy for Saros for the next 7 years and wait until you're 30 to get the lead gig?

Askarov was our #1 pick. You don't burn a #1 pick and not create a path for him if he performs. Askarov has performed. He needs more seasoning, but he's not Brian Findley.

 

[Armourboy]

Given Barry's quotes on Saros, let's assume he stays. So, then they must be planning on extending him after this year, otherwise the following year is his UFA year. With that extension, you close the door on Askarov. One more full-time year in Milwaukee, then what? Caddy for Saros for the next 7 years and wait until you're 30 to get the lead gig?

Askarov was our #1 pick. You don't burn a #1 pick and not create a path for him if he performs. Askarov has performed. He needs more seasoning, but he's not Brian Findley.

Saros current contract gives you two years to make a decision on Askarov. If you think he is the goalie of the future at that point then you figure out what to do with Saros. If you get to the end of that 2 years and you just don't think Askarov is going to be that guy then you sign Saros long term and move on from Askarov as far as the future is concerned and start looking for a replacement.

I mean there is also the scenario where you have a nice sit down with Saros and tell him you want to sign him to extension but it has to be a deal where we can afford to run 1A/1B for X amount of dollars. Odds are that would be a long shot, but I also don't think Saros is going to be a guy that is looking to make 10.5 a season either.

I suspect you will see Trotz and company spend some capital on some goalies in the next draft or two. Even if Askarov becomes the man we have absolutely nothing behind him.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Saros current contract gives you two years to make a decision on Askarov. If you think he is the goalie of the future at that point then you figure out what to do with Saros. If you get to the end of that 2 years and you just don't think Askarov is going to be that guy then you sign Saros long term and move on from Askarov as far as the future is concerned and start looking for a replacement.

I mean there is also the scenario where you have a nice sit down with Saros and tell him you want to sign him to extension but it has to be a deal where we can afford to run 1A/1B for X amount of dollars. Odds are that would be a long shot, but I also don't think Saros is going to be a guy that is looking to make 10.5 a season either.

I suspect you will see Trotz and company spend some capital on some goalies in the next draft or two. Even if Askarov becomes the man we have absolutely nothing behind him.

Again, I feel like we are all reading WAY too much into Trotz quotes and soundbytes and taking each one to be a set-in-stone template for the direction of our team building. I don't see anything definitive in Trotz's quote on Saros' long-term future or Askarov's future to make me comfortable predicting anything other than Saros will likely be here next year and it will cost a lot to pry him from us--same as before. I think you lay out a very logical plan here that doesn't contradict what Trotz is saying. Trotz is putting a lot of smoke out there right now and saying a lot of things that may sound a certain way, but don't seem to actually bind us to anything--he's reminding me a bit of Paul, " I have become all things to all people so that by all possible means...."

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yeah something is going to have to give at some point with Saros/Askarov. I see the logic in keeping both of them until you are more sure Askarov will be a top tier NHL starter but the longer we wait on that decision the less value we get from trading the one we decide to get rid of. I think next offseason is sort of the sweet spot to potentially get good value for whichever one you trade and also having enough information to make a good choice.

Clearly the market for Saros isn't there right now to make him worth moving, but I would definitely be seeing what you could get from a package including Askarov. No need to trade either of Saros/Askarov just to trade one now, but I do thinking constantly listening to offers is wise (which to be fair seems to be what Trotz is doing).

 

[wmupreds]

Saros current contract gives you two years to make a decision on Askarov. If you think he is the goalie of the future at that point then you figure out what to do with Saros. If you get to the end of that 2 years and you just don't think Askarov is going to be that guy then you sign Saros long term and move on from Askarov as far as the future is concerned and start looking for a replacement.

I mean there is also the scenario where you have a nice sit down with Saros and tell him you want to sign him to extension but it has to be a deal where we can afford to run 1A/1B for X amount of dollars. Odds are that would be a long shot, but I also don't think Saros is going to be a guy that is looking to make 10.5 a season either.

I suspect you will see Trotz and company spend some capital on some goalies in the next draft or two. Even if Askarov becomes the man we have absolutely nothing behind him.

This is the conservative or safe route and probably what they'll do (and it's far from the end of the world) but it's going to cost the Preds quite a bit of value on either player once it comes time to make that decision.

But part of why I'd be more OK than most with trading Saros is that I'm pretty high on Askarov's trajectory. I think he may well be ready to get a few NHL games next season and be part of a tandem if not a 1A for all of 24-25.

It's a risk but that's a 2 to 3 year plan that hurts you next season but with the return you get from Saros plus significantly less cap tied up in goalies (once Saros is up for UFA) it could get the team in a better spot pretty quickly.

 

[Armourboy]

Yeah something is going to have to give at some point with Saros/Askarov. I see the logic in keeping both of them until you are more sure Askarov will be a top tier NHL starter but the longer we wait on that decision the less value we get from trading the one we decide to get rid of. I think next offseason is sort of the sweet spot to potentially get good value for whichever one you trade and also having enough information to make a good choice.

Clearly the market for Saros isn't there right now to make him worth moving, but I would definitely be seeing what you could get from a package including Askarov. No need to trade either of Saros/Askarov just to trade one now, but I do thinking constantly listening to offers is wise (which to be fair seems to be what Trotz is doing).

I think we as a fan base are essentially overvaluing Saros value, at least as far as a trade goes. People aren't wrong when they say " goalies just don't bring that much ", and I really think that is essentially what Trotz is saying without saying it.

Saros value is far greater to us than a late round 1st, probably in next years draft, and some random prospect that the trading team doesn't think will pan out. I think at best that is probably is what is being offered, and considering the number of picks and prospects we already have the value of another just isn't worth it

Basically Saros is worth and elite prospect to us, not just in value on the ice but value as far as future plans. He isn't worth that to other teams, so it's not being offered, thus why Trotz is listening but he isn't going anywhere.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

This is the conservative or safe route and probably what they'll do (and it's far from the end of the world) but it's going to cost the Preds quite a bit of value on either player once it comes time to make that decision.

But part of why I'd be more OK than most with trading Saros is that I'm pretty high on Askarov's trajectory. I think he may well be ready to get a few NHL games next season and be part of a tandem if not a 1A for all of 24-25.

It's a risk but that's a 2 to 3 year plan that hurts you next season but with the return you get from Saros plus significantly less cap tied up in goalies (once Saros is up for UFA) it could get the team in a better spot pretty quickly.

I don't think this is the case. True, Saros' value won't be higher a year from now than it is now (he'll be a pending UFA), but we're not going to get optimal value for him right now anyway--there are just way too many available goaltenders that are good enough to justify not paying a rip-off rate for Saros.

I think we as a fan base are essentially overvaluing Saros value, at least as far as a trade goes. People aren't wrong when they say " goalies just don't bring that much ", and I really think that is essentially what Trotz is saying without saying it.

Saros value is far greater to us than a late round 1st, probably in next years draft, and some random prospect that the trading team doesn't think will pan out. I think at best that is probably is what is being offered, and considering the number of picks and prospects we already have the value of another just isn't worth it

Basically Saros is worth and elite prospect to us, not just in value on the ice but value as far as future plans. He isn't worth that to other teams, so it's not being offered, thus why Trotz is listening but he isn't going anywhere.

Absolutely.

 

[Armourboy]

This is the conservative or safe route and probably what they'll do (and it's far from the end of the world) but it's going to cost the Preds quite a bit of value on either player once it comes time to make that decision.

But part of why I'd be more OK than most with trading Saros is that I'm pretty high on Askarov's trajectory. I think he may well be ready to get a few NHL games next season and be part of a tandem if not a 1A for all of 24-25.

It's a risk but that's a 2 to 3 year plan that hurts you next season but with the return you get from Saros plus significantly less cap tied up in goalies (once Saros is up for UFA) it could get the team in a better spot pretty quickly.

As I said in my other post, I think you have the same problem lots of us do, we think Saros and Askarov are worth way more than they are. The return on both will just leave you in a place where you just end up thinking you should have not even traded them to begin with.

I really do think that this latest message from Trotz is the point he is trying to make, It ain't that either aren't available for a move, he just isn't getting anything of substance to make it worth it.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

As I said in my other post, I think you have the same problem lots of us do, we think Saros and Askarov are worth way more than they are. The return on both will just leave you in a place where you just end up thinking you should have not even traded them to begin with.

I really do think that this latest message from Trotz is the point he is trying to make, It ain't that either aren't available for a move, he just isn't getting anything of substance to make it worth it.

This is why there's no advantage to being aggressive with the goalie situation. Get it right with respect to who's going to be in net for this franchise long-term and take as much time as is needed to get there. The downside of getting it wrong could be an enormous drag on the team's competitive development, while the upside of trading one or the other now is very unlikely to be a difference-maker asset.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Agreed that I do think it really comes down to trade value and what Saros seems willing to re-sign for. If all you're getting is like a late 1st and an ok prospect out of Saros and he's willing to take a reasonable contract maybe we should just be happy rolling out an amazing goalie tandem for the next 7 years or so. The workhorse goalie in the playoffs has always been the traditional go to, but I wonder if there could be an advantaged gained by continuing to run a tandem in the playoff especially once you start to make a deep run.

 

[herzausstein]

Given Barry's quotes on Saros, let's assume he stays. So, then they must be planning on extending him after this year, otherwise the following year is his UFA year. With that extension, you close the door on Askarov. One more full-time year in Milwaukee, then what? Caddy for Saros for the next 7 years and wait until you're 30 to get the lead gig?

Askarov was our #1 pick. You don't burn a #1 pick and not create a path for him if he performs. Askarov has performed. He needs more seasoning, but he's not Brian Findley.

Trade askarov to move up in the 1st round, extend saros (he just turned 28), and rely on this teams ability to draft and develop goalies to get a different replacement for saros down the road is an option. Saros was a 4th round pick, rinne an 8th round pick, Vejmelka in arizona was our 5th round pick, we developed Ingram (arizona's backup). Either way saros should be at the top of his game for another 4-6 seasons.

*im not advocating for this option. Just saying, it is an option

 

[Predsanddead24]

Trade askarov to move up in the 1st round, extend saros (he just turned 28), and rely on this teams ability to draft and develop goalies to get a different replacement for saros down the road is an option. Saros was a 4th round pick, rinne an 8th round pick, Vejmelka in arizona was our 5th round pick, we developed Ingram (arizona's backup). Either way saros should be at the top of his game for another 4-6 seasons.

*im not advocating for this option. Just saying, it is an option

I'd seriously be considering this option. Saros relies on his technique instead of his athleticism so I think he is a good candidate to age well, but his size will always be a concern. Lankinen is only 28 too so if he's happy to re-sign for a few years we could have the backup situation sorted too. If we could get 5OA from Montreal I'd be willing to do Askarov plus 15OA, but who knows if that gets it done. I may be in the minority there though.

 

[Armourboy]

I'd seriously be considering this option. Saros relies on his technique instead of his athleticism so I think he is a good candidate to age well, but his size will always be a concern. Lankinen is only 28 too so if he's happy to re-sign for a few years we could have the backup situation sorted too. If we could get 5OA from Montreal I'd be willing to do Askarov plus 15OA, but who knows if that gets it done. I may be in the minority there though.

The way they are talking I don't think that's enough to move up and frankly that would be my limit.

 

[herzausstein]

I'd seriously be considering this option. Saros relies on his technique instead of his athleticism so I think he is a good candidate to age well, but his size will always be a concern. Lankinen is only 28 too so if he's happy to re-sign for a few years we could have the backup situation sorted too. If we could get 5OA from Montreal I'd be willing to do Askarov plus 15OA, but who knows if that gets it done. I may be in the minority there though.

Idk. If they are seriously thinking about getting PLD... they may be wanting to contend sooner rather than later. id do 15th plus askarov for 5th and a cap dump. Theyll want to send someone like Gallagher which is terrible but i think he is a candidate for LTIR after another season or two since he is always getting broken.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Idk. If they are seriously thinking about getting PLD... they may be wanting to contend sooner rather than later. id do 15th plus askarov for 5th and a cap dump. Theyll want to send someone like Gallagher which is terrible but i think he is a candidate for LTIR after another season or two since he is always getting broken.

I don't know that trading for Askarov gets them any closer to competing sooner rather than later. They (or any other trade partner) would be assuming he's ready to start shouldering a full NHL load in the next season or two and will be very good at it shortly after. If I'm sitting at the top of the draft that's not a gamble I'm willing to take (even if I think this draft is starting to get overrated even by normal hyperbolic HF standards).

 

[Kat Predator]

The way they are talking I don't think that's enough to move up and frankly that would be my limit.

I would predict that if Hughes swapped down 10 picks in this draft for Askarov, he'd be looking for a new job by the end of the season if not sooner.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Man...just imagining blowing a mass of draft/prospect capital so we could take a Russian who is locked into the next 3 years in Russia. Guess the only worse scenario for some Preds fans would be taking a guy from New England/New York who is committed to the NCAA.

 

[Soundgarden]

Man...just imagining blowing a mass of draft/prospect capital so we could take a Russian who is locked into the next 3 years in Russia. Guess the only worse scenario for some Preds fans would be taking a guy from New England/New York who is committed to the NCAA.

If this guy is as good as he's hyped up to be he could be the next Malkin/Ovechkin level player. You wait those three years like Minnesota did for Karpizov. Of course it's going to suck having to wait those three years and hear nothing but negativity from everyone, remember when David Farrance wasn't signed?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

If this guy is as good as he's hyped up to be he could be the next Malkin/Ovechkin level player. You wait those three years like Minnesota did for Karpizov. Of course it's going to suck having to wait those three years and hear nothing but negativity from everyone, remember when David Farrance wasn't signed?

That's such an enormous gamble. We trade #15 +#24, or maybe a 1st next year (which could be top 10), Askarov, and a Tomasino-type to hope we get that level of player 3 years from now? If it doesn't pan out that is a catastrophic trade.

 

[Soundgarden]

That's such an enormous gamble. We trade #15 +#24, or maybe a 1st next year (which could be top 10), Askarov, and a Tomasino-type to hope we get that level of player 3 years from now? If it doesn't pan out that is a catastrophic trade.

Yes, it's a huge gamble. But I'd rather try for a potential 2nd best player in the draft than always drafting 15-24 or wherever. We can always draft mid 1sts, we can count on one hand the number of times we could have gotten a world class talent. Huge gamble, but one I'd make, IMO.

We've got a really good prospect pool, trading away 1sts or future firsts won't hurt as much.