Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

[Top Corner]

Yep, this kind of looks like the "We've lost five in a row, so now it's time for me to tell you that I knew it was coming all along, and thus, it's time to change everything that has actually led to two seasons with winning records" post.

What will we hear if this team pulls itself together, ends strong, and puts in a strong playoff run?

Just so you see its not a knee jerk reaction to recent play, here are a few links back in December.


Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. III

Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. III

 

[periferal]

Imagine if we collapse, miss the playoffs and watch Ottawa pick 8th or so with our pick . . .

I imagined it before we made the deal for Pageau. And one of the reasons why I didn't want to do it.

 

[FourRings]

I argued this group wasn't a serious SC contender with Pags or without him.

I am just glad the Parise deal fell through thru. My worry is Lou will circle back to that deal this summer.

Same. We need an elite sniper. Pags fills a need, but there are still more holes in the roster.

As for the Parise deal; I'm so happy that didn't go through too. I think with Pageau we won't do it though.

 

[NC 1972]

Imagine if we collapse, miss the playoffs and watch Ottawa pick 8th or so with our pick . . .

It’s conditional.

 

[leeroggy]

It’s conditional.

Not against #8, only Top 3

 

[PK Cronin]

From Staple this morning in The Atlantic:

" . . . the last time one of the third- or fourth-line wingers scored on a goalie was Feb. 11, when Matt Martin scored in the opening period on the night Cizikas was injured."

Not good production from anywhere right now really. The lack of bottom 6 scoring puts more pressure on the top 6, who aren't equipped to handle that type of pressure.

 

[periferal]

This is going to be super unpopular but if this team does indeed miss the playoffs I think selling some players off have to be in some sort of conversation. Lou has had difficulty adding the talent this team needs and now it is getting to the point where it is truly hurting the team.

Hopefully this team turns it around and makes me look ridiculous, but last nights game was a turning point for me. This team is 1-2 injuries away with this roster from being a lottery team. If a big injury happens early in the season with a similar roster the season would be over.

Super popular can also be a correct course of action. Anyone with a pulse knew this was one of the least talented rosters in the league two years ago. Now with the best coach in the league the results aren't there, but here are the problems:

• There's basically no one to sell off
• The players you can sell off won't necessarily give you the futures needed to do a shorter-term rebuild
• Does Lou even have it in him to rebuild at 72?

 

[periferal]

I don’t know what mandate ownership gave Lou, with a new arena being built
That being said, maybe Lou miscalculated?
After Tavares left, instead of selling off Lee, Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and retooling, he chose to make them the core of this team.
I know he went after Stone and Panarin, yes they would’ve absolutely helped this team.
I’m just afraid the core players he has built this team around are just not good enough.

 

[periferal]

For basically the entire year under the wrath of many posters here, I have warned that this year may not be as rosy as the previous. A long long time Isles fan suggested that the Rangers did it right and not to count them out. Fast forward, here we are, angry & upset at the play , myself included but the makeup of this team is flawed and the problem is what Lou did at the deadline has only killed the chances of quick recovery. The only chance of finding scoring is a Trade/UFA or someone from the organization stepping up.

Option 1 Trade, who in their right mind is going to offer up a scorer for an Isles player not named Barzal and if they were wanting to move a scorer, it would be for lesser paid players and high draft picks which we have really nothing now.

Option 2 UFA, not sure there is one that will solve the issue completely like a Panarin and if there was, he wouldnt be able to fit into the cap without other parts being shipped out and reducing our roster strength.

Option 3 someone within doesnt look like its happening anytime soon so that option is out

I've always felt that I would prefer a Mark Hunter over Lou , with Lou just being a President.

Most accurate/deadly on point post I've seen on here in a while. Every single sentence is accurate and/or smart.

 

[MJF]

Super popular can also be a correct course of action. Anyone with a pulse knew this was one of the least talented rosters in the league two years ago. Now with the best coach in the league the results aren't there, but here are the problems:

• There's basically no one to sell off
• The players you can sell off won't necessarily give you the futures needed to do a shorter-term rebuild
• Does Lou even have it in him to rebuild at 72?

Lou is 77 and probably in better shape than you or I.

Having met him a couple of times last year (once in Montreal, once at the practice rink) I’ll say that if his passion for his job is there that he’ll be physically capable of continuing on.

 

[TeamKidd]

I guess we all underestimated the value of Adam Pelech, ehh?

 

[CupHolders]

Seriously?

Yes. Parise COULD be an adequate replacement for Bailey.

Could = Used to indicate a possibility.

I don’t think it’s far fetched.

 

[periferal]

Lou is 77 and probably in better shape than you or I.

Having met him a couple of times last year (once in Montreal, once at the practice rink) I’ll say that if his passion for his job is there that he’ll be physically capable of continuing on.

Awesome. That doesn't address the other two points.

 

[duster19]

I argued this group wasn't a serious SC contender with Pags or without him.

I am just glad the Parise deal fell through thru. My worry is Lou will circle back to that deal this summer.

Lou mis read the tea leaves at the deadline. This was not the season to spend. We haven’t won a game with Pageau in the lineup. Maybe 1 with Greene?

Tough year for Lou. Most of his moves this year fell flat. Was unnecessary to spend at the deadline like he did.

 

[danteipp]

I am confused by the idea that the Islanders don't have assets to acquire a scorer (assuming they can't sign one in free agency and then move out salary in separate deals).

I would list the following as players the Islanders can trade and, while it would deplete roster depth in the short term, they have value to other teams:

Leddy
Mayfield
Toews (but prob only if they can keep Leddy under the cap)
Wilde

Bailey
Beauvillier
Wahlstrom
Bellows
Holmstrom (who I wouldn't want to necessarily move, since he has played well recently at 18-years old in the AHL)

2021 First Rounder (assuming the draft pick doesn't slide)

Those are 10 assets that I could see being traded in the right deal and the Isles could prob sacrifice several of them.

Of course if the Isles miss the playoffs, winning the NHL draft lottery would make a huge impact and isn't it time the Isles finally catch a break in the lottery?

The only asset I see as extremely valuable, that has been spent, is the first rounder and that netted JGP, who was vital to stabilizing the hole at center for the next several seasons.

The seconds are assets, but all of the listed assets are more valuable IMHO.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

Lou mis read the tea leaves at the deadline. This was not the season to spend. We haven’t won a game with Pageau in the lineup. Maybe 1 with Greene?

Tough year for Lou. Most of his moves this year fell flat. Was unnecessary to spend at the deadline like he did.

This is you can’t win for losing, if he did nothing he was going to be crucified and now he is crucified for making moves to address holes on roster. Pageau fills a big hole and to me he is a right handed cizikas he will be part of this core. If he pots 20 a year and wins face offs and kills penalties it’s a good move.

 

[Newsworthy]

Maybe it is just me, but I don't see the situation as being so dire. This adversity will be helpful in figuring out exactly who stays and who goes - and I already see a few players that can go. Before next season, the Isles probably need to make about five moves to revamp the team.

The first move is that the Isles absolutely must bring Sorokin over. As we have seen with other young goalies, they stabilize a team. When you don't give up back-breaking goals (that should be saved) and you trust your goalie, the rest of the team plays looser and better. Plus, Sorokin seems to have a great personality for the locker room and NYC market, as someone who likes to joke around off-ice, but is deadly serious on the ice.

Get the defense healthy and add CHEAP veteran depth (second move). I would be looking to bring back Green (or a comparable UFA) on a one-year deal for about $2-2.5 million. Assuming Pelech returns to form, which will be huge, and Dobson is gaining important experience right now, the Isles should be able to ice a top-5 defense corps. The four core defensemen should be: Pelech, Pulock, Toews (probably extended a year or two at $2.5 million AAV) and Dobson (with perhaps Wilde down the line joining this group if he isn't traded to help elsewhere). Add in Boychuk and Greene for sure (see Leddy and Mayfield discussed below) and that gives the Isles six quality defensemen at the NHL level with probably Hickey, Aho and Wilde in the AHL for depth (unless more is added by trade). Not ideal but few teams have much depth on defense now.

Third move, option 1: The Isles have to go all-in on an UFA goal scorer like Taylor Hall (doubtful to sign with the NYI), Hoffman or Dadonov. Hoffman would be my target and I do whatever is reasonably necessary to bring him in to play alongside Barzal. Dadonov would be the next choice. If you can sign a player like Hoffman or Dadonov, I trade Bailey for futures (to help restock the system or use in trade down the line) and see if I can move Leddy in a trade for a cheaper, albeit lesser defenseman to help the depth. Like the Trouba for Pionk deal in reverse. If you can't find that, get the best package of futures available for use later.

Third move option 2: If the Isles cannot add a goal scorer in free agency, then they are going to have to trade for one and I would use Mayfield and his cheap contract as one asset to do that. The other assets are probably some mix of Wahlstrom, Bellows, Holmstrom, Wilde, the 2021 draft pick, etc. In the right deal for a significant upgrade, Beauvillier is also on the table. I look to see if a trade built around Mayfield, Beauvillier and another couple assets can get a player like a Nylander or Rakell. What the Isles give up depends on the quality of player being returned.

For the fourth move, I revisit the Parise-Ladd swap. Try to find a workable deal there. I am not sure what it is going to be but, if you can move out Ladd's deal for a serviceable player and take on more real $$$ but work under the cap, you have to do it. Otherwise Ladd goes to Robidas Island and gets paid to stay away next season.

Finally, I let Martin, Brassard and Kuhnhackl all walk and I look to add 2-3 NHL/AHL tweener players at forward to come in and compete but also provide depth in the AHL. Ross takes Martin's spot and MDC is not guaranteed a spot unless he earns it.

Assuming the NHL salary cap moves up to the $86-88 million mark, the Isles should be able to resign their RFAs, although there might have to be a bridge deals for Towes and Barzal right now, add one top goal scorer and look to round out the team. Provided they make the tough calls on players like Bailey and Leddy (good players but redundnat to the Isles) and jettison Ladd. And a bit further down the line, contracts like Boychuk and Clutter will either come to an end in a couple seasons or be moved off the books via trade or buyout.

Of course if the Isles miss the playoffs, let's pray for a (long overdue) NHL draft lottery win, because that would expedite improvement, just like it has helped Carolina, Philly, the Rags, etc.

Most of these trade proposals are robbing Peter to pay Paul. We need to get younger rather than trade away what little prospects we have. Also Lou needs to make some shrewd moves like the Rangers did when they stole Zibanejad, Fox, Strome and DeAngelo. Lou has yet to get creative. In fact he hasn't really added anything of significance to this roster. He's not been good. We desperately need to win some trades. Now is the time to sign the best undrafted foreign free agents available and all the undrafted college stars.
As I said before last years deadline was a good time to sell guys like Eberle and Lee. Nelson is the only free agent I would have kept.

 

[danteipp]

Most of these trade proposals are robbing Peter to pay Paul. We need to get younger rather than trade away what little prospects we have. Also Lou needs to make some shrewd moves like the Rangers did when they stole Zibanejad, Fox, Strome and DeAngelo. Lou has yet to get creative. In fact he hasn't really added anything of significance to this roster. He's not been good. We desperately need to win some trades. Now is the time to sign the best undrafted foreign free agents available and all the undrafted college stars.
As I said before last years deadline was a good time to sell guys like Eberle and Lee. Nelson is the only free agent I would have kept.

No, they are not. The Isles have depth on the blue line and some young forwards in the system, so you deal from strength.

You can trade some good players and still "win" the deal. You can also make a solid hockey trade that benefits both teams.

The idea is to get creative, using a few of the assets listed, to improve the team in the short term and for several years beyond that.

 

[Newsworthy]

This is you can’t win for losing, if he did nothing he was going to be crucified and now he is crucified for making moves to address holes on roster. Pageau fills a big hole and to me he is a right handed cizikas he will be part of this core. If he pots 20 a year and wins face offs and kills penalties it’s a good move.

Lou was crucified mainly for his indecisiveness. We could have filled holes without mortgaging the future way before this deadline.

If he was going to make a big splash why wait until the wheels started falling off?
Last year this team was headed for the playoffs and he could have used a first line scorer more than Pageau this year.

Lou claims to have a plan yet this team gets older. You can't lose Tavares and than go ahead and sign Komarov and Hickey and expect not to receive criticism.
The best move was Lehner and he's gone.
We either buy or we sell?
So we could have acquired draft pics and started an early rebuild.
Now we are stuck with bad contracts that we can't trade rather than acquiring picks for rentals.
This wouldn't be so awful if Snow hadn't left us with enough bad deals already.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Super popular can also be a correct course of action. Anyone with a pulse knew this was one of the least talented rosters in the league two years ago. Now with the best coach in the league the results aren't there, but here are the problems:

• There's basically no one to sell off
• The players you can sell off won't necessarily give you the futures needed to do a shorter-term rebuild
• Does Lou even have it in him to rebuild at 72?

Listen I love Lou, but he needs to be the President and Mark Hunter always should have been brought in instead of Lou's son as the assistant GM. They are in a position where they really need to decide about selling off players such as Leddy and Bailey while acquiring a first line forward with little to not assets.

Does an offer of Wahlstrom + Leddy get it done for Huberdeau? I honestly do not which means the next add is Dobson. Lou is then trading the best assets on the team to go absolutely all in with this roster.

 

[nystromshairstylist]

The issues are rather clear:

1-too many passengers like bailey, eberle, nelson, leddy whose efforts on the ice are sorely lacking most of the time

2-not such good players like lee, mayfield, komarov making bad decisions/bad plays like lee flubbing countless open looks

3-#1 and #2 combined leads to an inability to get the puck out of the defensive zone, leading to having to face huge numbers of shots against. NYI lead the league in shot deficit.

4-consistently poor drafting at the top of the draft where teams cores are built upon; strome/niederreiter/dal colle and inability to sign FAs...panarin, tavares, etc.

5-trotz might have lost the room. Their effort the last 2 months has been dreadful, which injuries cannot account for as the players lacking effort and floating most of their shifts were not injured.

I expect another 2 or 3 poor efforts will likely lead to trotz getting canned.

 

[nystromshairstylist]

Lou was crucified mainly for his indecisiveness. We could have filled holes without mortgaging the future way before this deadline.

If he was going to make a big splash why wait until the wheels started falling off?
Last year this team was headed for the playoffs and he could have used a first line scorer more than Pageau this year.

Lou claims to have a plan yet this team gets older. You can't lose Tavares and than go ahead and sign Komarov and Hickey and expect not to receive criticism.
The best move was Lehner and he's gone.
We either buy or we sell?
So we could have acquired draft pics and started an early rebuild.
Now we are stuck with bad contracts that we can't trade rather than acquiring picks for rentals.
This wouldn't be so awful if Snow hadn't left us with enough bad deals already.

I wonder if snow was still GM would it have made a difference; lou's moves the past 12 months have been consistently stupid.

 

[nystromshairstylist]

Most of these trade proposals are robbing Peter to pay Paul. We need to get younger rather than trade away what little prospects we have. Also Lou needs to make some shrewd moves like the Rangers did when they stole Zibanejad, Fox, Strome and DeAngelo. Lou has yet to get creative. In fact he hasn't really added anything of significance to this roster. He's not been good. We desperately need to win some trades. Now is the time to sign the best undrafted foreign free agents available and all the undrafted college stars.
As I said before last years deadline was a good time to sell guys like Eberle and Lee. Nelson is the only free agent I would have kept.

Its funny how so many on this forum (when I didn't dislike it so much and participated more a few years back) raved over how eberle - strome was such a steal favoring the NYI.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Its funny how so many on this forum (when I didn't dislike it so much and participated more a few years back) raved over how eberle - strome was such a steal favoring the NYI.

Honestly. I have been quite negative but if you actually view Strome as a better player you either don't watch enough hockey or you do not know how to evaluate players. I am a big Strome fan but this is a joke.

I wonder if snow was still GM would it have made a difference; lou's moves the past 12 months have been consistently stupid.

Yeah I am sure Snow would have been GREAT. Please..

 

[danteipp]

Its funny how so many on this forum (when I didn't dislike it so much and participated more a few years back) raved over how eberle - strome was such a steal favoring the NYI.

It was a good deal for the Islanders and it was a bad deal for Edmonton - twice. In the end, Edmonton went from Eberle > Strome > Spooner.