Holloway won’t be NHL ready for at least another full season kid hasn’t played a game in 10 months and still isn’t game ready. Hyman is pretty dissapointing so far. Either way we still need 2 top 6 wingers that are better than Puljujarvi and Hyman cause they are only kind of getting the job done. But we don’t have close to any money so hopefully a miracle happens and Bourgault and Holloway are elite next year.
Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Kubalik, MA Fleury, Debrusk?
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AddyTheWrath
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You don't think we're better than this horrendous slide we've been on for the past month? I mean c'mon the team hasn't even played terribly and we're frequently missing 2-3 players because of COVID. Edit: never mind, I didn't read your other paragraph. I personally think we can be a top 3 team in the division with the right coach, even without any roster upgrades (except maybe goaltending).
I agree on Nurse and Keith but I do think the Ceci & Bouchard have room to grow. The latter especially I could envision seeing playing at least at a top 2/3 level by next season.
We're already upgrading the goaltending in my template, so not sure what you're arguing there. I was mainly talking about the forwards and defense (if we could replace Barrie for someone more defensively-minded and play Broberg over Koekkoek/Lagesson and the like).
Oilhawks
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Using the above template, this is my best guess with the X's filled
Holloway - McDavid - Pulju (these two will have to "carry" a player on an ELC)
McLeod - Draisaitl - Hyman (McLeod could be perfect for their cycle game. He's become less perimeter player lately, so might benefit with some reps as a winger. Bourgault as a dark horse option for this line)
Foegele - RNH - *Acquired player* (My guess is a cheaper player from a Seattle or something. Dark horse option - Marody, if he is still with the org next season. Would prefer a bit more beef for this winger though, but a shooter would be good)
Benson - Ryan - Sceviour (someone like him, if not, literally get a decent waiver wire guy)
Defense?
Nurse - x (Agreed with @AddyTheWrath - some sort of shut down D)
Keith - Bouchard
Broberg - Ceci
The above is better than what's been iced this year. Broberg might even take over most of Keith's minutes by Christmas)
Goaltending
X (Reimer type cheapish goalie)
Skinner
Skinner likely takes the starter reigns after a fair split to start
I literally said we aren’t as bad as this slide but not as good as the win streak. We are as good as our overall season though, which is a middling team that is fighting for a wildcard spot. That’s what we are. In your template you are swapping Smith out for a similar gig and bringing up Skinner, that’s not really an improvement, especially cause with your template we don’t really have much cap to bring in any goalie of note.
Broberg ain’t NHL ready and is currently worse than Lagesson so that would be a downgrade.
What are you seeing from Broberg or Holloway to think they would be even close to ready to do that. Brobergs underlying numbers and actual numbers were really bad here this year. Kids at LEAST another full AHL season away, let alone being a top 4 NHL defender mid next season. He is fun to watch but ain’t very good yet.
That above is marginally better than what we are icing this year unless we find a legit top pairing guy for Nurse for under 3 mill
Oilhawks
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Hyman has been 'disappointing' after he came back from an injury that he hasn't healed from. This is recency bias during a period where the whole team looks more or less like trash (including McDrai, in their PPG mode the past month...no not blaming them but they aren't their best either.) You just posted Hyman's expected goals %, and they're good. Hyman is fine. Nuge has to be better.
Why would it take another full season for Holloway to be ready? He was pretty much a lock for a bottom 6 winger position this season before the injury recurrence. He's that f***ing good. What if he knocks it out of the park in the AHL? It's probably too early to say either way.
Burnt Biscuits
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I disagree an average starting goalie is generally around a 0.915 Sv% just contrasting that against Koski and Smith's save percentages they've let in roughly 12.7 more goals than they should (combined) based on their shots against. Presently we are dead even on GF and GA numbers with less than half the season played if you extrapolate that to a full season we are talking about a positive 30 goal differential spread for the team with just average starting goaltending and that kind of goal differential is more than a guaranteed lock for the playoffs.
I also find that the whole team tends to play better when they believe in the goalie behind them, people are forgetting our 05-06 season where we just scraped our way into the playoffs, but then quality goaltending turned us entirely around, though to be fair to Koskinen & Smith even though they are struggling they were still clearly better than the Conklin + Markkanen + Morrison trio. Also want to point out that Holland built us an incredibly shallow team in terms of depth we have very little quality to draw up from the minors or even in the player's box so all the injuries & COVID absences are hitting us harder than should be the case. The fact we have maintained a dead even goal differential in light of goaltending & injury issues actually makes me optimistic, rather than pessimistic with respect to this team.
Oilhawks
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Holloway would have won the Hobey Baker if it wasn't for Caufield. Full stop. The kid dominated against men in his 2nd year. As long as his injury heals, he will be ready for the NHL next season, at the latest, Christmas.
Broberg was good to start and faded as the pressure piled up. He was in over his head. Should be playing bottom pairing like I have him. He needs to minutes this year but will be fine with 13-15ish minutes next year. They should also hold on to Samorukov and Lagesson for next season as bottom pairing guys, assuming Tippett didn't punch their tickets out of here (f***ing idiot)
Hyman is often injured though. That’s how he has always been. Plays good, gets injured, struggles til next year.
He was a lock in our make believe minds. And yes he might have had a chance if he was able to actually train properly, have an NHL camp and play. But he has missed an extra 6 months since then. I don’t think you realize how much missing 10 months of training and hockey sets a young player back. He is going to struggle in the AHL this year. Penciling him in on the top line is rebuild level Oilers bad.
Yes Holloway was good until he got injured and has missed 10 months of training and hockey. You don’t just go from that to top line NHL keeping up with McDavid 6 months later while never playing a single pro game. Last we heard he isn’t even skating with contact yet? His 3 month recovery time is now at what, 4 months?
Holloway wasn’t a lock for anything.
the jump from college to the nhl is a huge one.
caufield who was better than Holloway has been terrible in the NHL this year
Holloway will be hard pressed to make the third line next year, let alone guaranteed top line McDavids winger easy peasy after 3 months of AHL games and a summer of training after a 10-11 month injury
I’d be surprised if Holloway was even better than McLeod next year
I’d be surprised if he was even on Yamamotos level. People just don’t seem to realize how much a long injury like that sets back young players. Benson was going to be a guarenteed NHLer first rounder till he missed a ton of time in his draft year. That much time gone for a young player is MASSIVE
HFOil during preseason
All these young players will take on big roles
HFOil during the season
Oh no, our team sucks and all these young players aren’t ready
Oilhawks
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He struggles til the next year? How do you know? I don't make a habit of watching Leafs games. If you do, by all means, I'll defer.
Depends on the player. It's not like this is some weakling undersized 'sizzle' player that needed time to get man strength. The kid is a beast and his game is predicated on speed, forechecking ability and a solid two-way game. He's also not a Euro that's not used to the NHL ice, game etc. There's a chance he needs another season but it's not a guarantee. I think you're back to being overly pessimistic in light of recent events. The team isn't as bad as they've looked. The biggest roster weakness is goaltending. They could really use a 3C, and a shutdown D. If those holes were filled, that's around the expected roster weaknesses for a team that pays 1/4 of its cap to two players.
If you could swap out Kassian, Barrie, and Koskinen for equivalent dollar players of the equivalent positions that perform better (Barrie for an elite shutdown D of the same cost vs his offensive output cost), this team would challenge for the division
Let's just say that they had Lowry instead of Kassian (yes, a centre, but both supposedly third liners), Tanev instead of Barrie, and Freddy Andersen instead of Koskinen, would this not be a great team?
Broberg Speed
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Noooo. There are good players and there are average players. Success while playing with McDavid depends on the player as pertaining to their natural abilities coming to the forefront when placed in particular settings, surroundings and circumstance. Seems pretty straight forward when stated that way. I could offer up 101 analogies to crystallize this concept but for the time being I'm going to assume it's unnecessary.
Hyman is an average player in the NHL. He does some things well. Other things, that have to do with skilled plays, like hands and natural offensive ability, he isn't very good at and has never been very notable at these aspects of the game.
Hyman was known as a dogged worker that never gave up on the puck. Tough on the forecheck, a player that would drive to the slot and the front of the net fearlessly. I'm not witnessing very much of that.
Oilhawks
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Totally different players. Caufield is a shrimp who isn't doing a whole lot when he's not scoring goals. The Habs are also a massive tire fire, worse than the Oilers during this slump.
Literally last we heard a month ago was Holloway was skating but was JUST allowed to start some wrist motions on the ice. Guy hasn’t been able to use a stick till a month ago. I’d bet he is 2-3 weeks away from taking a full practice with Bakersfield let alone playing a game. I’m betting what, Beginning to mid Feb before he sees game action? And it’ll take him at least 20 games to get up to game speed and adapt to the AHL. And the the season is pretty much over lol
Oilhawks
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Anyways, I'll sorry for interrupting the doomposting. I'll excuse myself
Toronto fans have often noted how he loses his game after injuries and struggles in the playoffs. This has been known.
Sure he isn’t a weakling. But he is a 20 year old who hasnt been able to properly train since he was 19. He may have been a big and strong boy in college but take a year away from him and throw him against actual men and he won’t be anymore. It’s going to take time for him to get his strength and speed back, relearn how to play hockey and THEN he can start being a good AHLer. You really think in 3 months, roughly 30 games he can catch up on an entire 10-11 months of missed physical development, learn the pro game and get his wrist back to playing shape and then after a 3-4 month summer be NHL playing against elites ready? If so Holloway should of gone -10 overall.
Holloway will be good. But it’s going to take him time to get back to where he was and then time to get there. Yes he might have made the team as a third liner this year. But he was injured and has missed a ton of time. So maybe he could make the team as a third liner next year. Expecting him to be a legit top line forward by Christmas at the latest is some crazy expectations for a kid who wasn’t even the best player on his college team and the kid who was isn’t even a top line player in the NhL
I would take Price...but my guess is that Koskinen would block the trade due to tax difference between Quebec and Alberta. This might be Mikko's final days with NHL pay checks. I think a third club would need to be involved and I don't see Holland being capable of that level of creativity.
To EDM: Price @ 66.666% of his cap
To Columbus: Koskinen @ 100%, Turris, ANA 3rd in 2022 (from MTL), Edmonton 2nd 2023
To MTL: Barrie, Korpisalo, EDM 1st 2022 and Dmitri Samorukov (retaining 33.333% on Price)
3 genuine pieces from EDM to MTL for Price: Barrie, 1st 2022 + Samorukov
The rest is about getting a third team involved to take on some salary (Koskinen and Turris).
To EDM: Price @ 66.666% of his cap
To Columbus: Koskinen @ 100%, Turris, ANA 3rd in 2022 (from MTL), Edmonton 2nd 2023
To MTL: Barrie, Korpisalo, EDM 1st 2022 and Dmitri Samorukov (retaining 33.333% on Price)
3 genuine pieces from EDM to MTL for Price: Barrie, 1st 2022 + Samorukov
The rest is about getting a third team involved to take on some salary (Koskinen and Turris).
OG Eberle
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I believe there have been 14 goalies selected in the 4th since 2000.
3 have become stars (Vasi, Price, MAF)
3 are up and coming (Samsonov, Knight, Askarov)
5 have been backups or spot starters on less than stellar teams (Oettinger, Campbell, Bernier, Montoya, Lehtonnen)
3 are busts (Pickard, DiPiettro, Leclaire)
I'm not sure it's as safe as you make it sound.
SwedishFire
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SwedishFire
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I will be scared if Skinner gets the nod for being a starter.
Im also thinks Barries best use here, is being a tradechip. Underlaying numbers says hes having a downyear. So thats that, maybe Holland has patience and keeps Barrie, bouncing back? But a steady Vet D is wished to add.
Agreed on McD, Drai and Nuge on each line. Macleod maybe even centering on Nuges line, MacLeod is not a 4th liner style.
I guess you see Yamamoto gone, and that would be a shame. I would rounding out the 3rd line with Yam as a winger. But there is many options. Tippet likes hierachys, so 3rd line is always spareparts stuffed together.
I think you pretty much has to stample Hyman to McDavid, McDavid sinks with lesser talet. Fogele and Pulju I think wouldnt work.
Holloway I see as starting on 3-4th line. He has to do the MacLeod path.
Its a shame really that prospwcts here is always ready 3-4 years after draftyear.
I would trade Ryan for a more vital 4C. Cant cost that much really. Holland seems to having a bad eye for bottom centers here. Scevioir doing a good job, Shore can score yje seldom goal and work hard. So those I keep.
Perlini? We sont know, Tippwt doesnr seems to carr how to find the best fit. He is what they need, a shooter. Benson MacLeod Perlini could be exciting?
There is talent, but they need to address the D first. One D, and things would be brighter I think
There is actually plenty of good 3rd line options now, but Tippet completly messing up.
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