Round 2, Vote 13 (HOH Top Wingers)

[TheDevilMadeMe]

As mentioned earlier -- Barber was blocked from a 1AS by a Charlie Simmer spike season in 1980 and from a 2AS by Mark Messier in 1982.

I originally said I had Barber and Middleton so close that I could easily flip them, and I think the case for Middleton has been made well enough to make me do that. But they really are close.

In 1980, Barber was 24th in goals, 102nd in assists, and 43rd in points (in an NHL that hadn't yet integrated Eastern Block players). The fact that he was 2nd Team AS at all says more about how weak that position was than anything else. Entirely unremarkable season. In my opinion, at least.

In 1982, Barber was 13th in goals, 54th in assists, and 24th in points. Better, but still nothing all that amazing.

 

[Hardyvan123]

As mentioned earlier -- Barber was blocked from a 1AS by a Charlie Simmer spike season in 1980 and from a 2AS by Mark Messier in 1982.

I originally said I had Barber and Middleton so close that I could easily flip them, and I think the case for Middleton has been made well enough to make me do that. But they really are close.

To be fair though Barber wasn't in the top 15 or top 10 in winger scoring in 80 and 82, so the "field" wasn't the biggest problem.
Barber has a bit of the Olmstead inconsistency problem for me as well.

He has a 80-50-62-112 peak season at age 23 then follows it up with a 73-20-35-55 line.

Even his age 28-29 raw stat resurgence is obscured by the fact that scoring rates went up dramatically and adjusted stats tell us he was a good not great offensive player.

I'm with TDMM here he is on the lower end of the spectrum of wingers this round.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Please review the data with a more critical eye.

The bolded all played on teams that used a three line rotation. The Canadiens and Leafs used a four line rotation:

Leafs:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/1971.html

Canadiens:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/MTL/1971.html

The problem with VsX goes back to the fifties when first the Canadiens then the Leafs went to four line rotations.

So the issue is not the 1970s Bruins.

This would be easier to "adjust" or even see how big the impact was if we had accurate TOI for all players and don't forget about PP time, did those teams roll 4 lines for the PP?

I'm also going to add that if other teams truly rolled 3 lines and these teams rolled 4 lines then the 4 line teams would be more fresh later on in games as well?

Pretty hard to come to any conclusions here IMO.

 

[Hardyvan123]

When did this become a consensus decision? It seems to me that there's a VERY wide spectrum here in regard to how people evaluate peak vs prime vs total career. I suspect that most people take them in balance, rather than ignoring one or the other.

VsX is a very good metric but it has it's limitations.

1) it rewards health and a guy like Neely actually has more elite impact GP this round than most other wingers available.

2) In larger leagues there is more competition and likelihood that some "outliers" tier wise might drive up the standard and that having an injury in a 30 team league for the same period of time is going to drop a guy back further than in a 6 team league.

A player could also finish 3rd of 4th in his team scoring and in a 6 team league he has a better chance of having a much better VsX score than in the same position in a 30 team league.

I'm of the view that one needs to look at as many different metrics as possible and as many angles to get the best picture of any player.

 

[thom]

One negative thing about Bill Barber-he was one of the biggest divers of alltime.But aside that he played on 1976 Canada Cup team and 1979NHL Challenge cup team.He had 883 pts which is more than Steve Shutt.Another thing about Bill Barber he was a centerman and early on career Fred Shero moved him to left wing to play with clarke and leach.He played 12 seasons for flyers and in 1990 was inducted in Hall of Fame

 

[Killion]

Another thing about Bill Barber he was a centerman and early on career Fred Shero moved him to left wing to play with clarke and leach.

Yes indeed. A standout Center in Junior with the Kitchener Rangers and previously with the North Bay Trappers of the NOHA, a very rugged league. Interestingly, he actually played Defence as an amateur for his childhood team in Callander Ontario (just outside of North Bay), a small town with a population of about 600, so short of a full team he played pretty much all 3 periods, full 60 minutes, never coming off the ice. Grew up in a large family, 5 brothers. Actually related (though somewhat distantly) to George Armstrong & Bobby Orr.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Voted

Vote 13 submitted.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Better

To the extent that this is a real issue, it would affect all ways of measuring offense, not just VsX.



I disagree with tossing what I think the single best method of comparing regular season offense between eras that has been created, just because there may be room for improvement.

Regular season offensive performance only? Method/metric should work for playoffs as well. See SV% for goalies. Works equally well for regular season and playoffs. Same pluses and weaknesses during the regular season are there for the playoffs as well..


Percentage of points to teams goals - regular season or playoffs works better than VsX and covers all eras,roster and line combinations. Only glitch would be the way assists were awarded at various points

Example. Regular season, Gordie Howe 1952-53 - 95/222=42.8%, Phil Esposito 1970-71 - 152/399 = 38.1%, Wayne Gretzky1981-82 - 212/417 = 50.8%

So if we look at Maurice Richard vs Gordie Howe during the 1952-53 regular season, Maurice Richard 61/155 = 39.4, the gap between the two players in terms of importance to their teams offensive production is not as great as suggested by the raw stats.

 

[tarheelhockey]

In 1980, Barber was 24th in goals, 102nd in assists, and 43rd in points (in an NHL that hadn't yet integrated Eastern Block players). The fact that he was 2nd Team AS at all says more about how weak that position was than anything else. Entirely unremarkable season. In my opinion, at least.

We're talking about 1981, not 1980. Barber was the 2nd highest scoring LW in the league after Charlie Simmer, who was in the middle of his 2-season spike.

In any case, why does Barber not get the same benefit of the doubt that everyone else gets when their AS voting is a lot higher than their scoring finish?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Four Line Team

Why does Barber not get the same benefit of the doubt that everyone else gets when their AS voting is a lot higher than their scoring finish?

Flyers were a four line team. Track the phenomena for other players, Leafs - Keon Armstrong, Pulford, Mahovlich to a degree.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Flyers were a four line team. Track the phenomena for other players, Leafs - Keon Armstrong, Pulford, Mahovlich to a degree.

I'm also thinking in terms of the LW/RW disparity. Barber led his team in scoring by a large margin (ahead of MacLeish, Leach, Clarke and Propp) yet he was way behind the likes of RWs Jacques Richard, Wilf Paiment and Wayne Babych on the leaguewide leaderboard. IMO, those guys are not better "talent depth" than guys like Barber and Propp (unless someone can convincingly argue otherwise). So just looking at point totals to judge the entire LW position is going to be problematic. So if AS voting is going to be dismissed according to point standings as well, all of a sudden it's damn near impossible for a good LW to compare favorably to a mediocre RW.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Regular season offensive performance only? Method/metric should work for playoffs as well. See SV% for goalies. Works equally well for regular season and playoffs. Same pluses and weaknesses during the regular season are there for the playoffs as well..

Percentage of points to teams goals - regular season or playoffs works better than VsX and covers all eras,roster and line combinations. Only glitch would be the way assists were awarded at various points

Example. Regular season, Gordie Howe 1952-53 - 95/222=42.8%, Phil Esposito 1970-71 - 152/399 = 38.1%, Wayne Gretzky1981-82 - 212/417 = 50.8%

So if we look at Maurice Richard vs Gordie Howe during the 1952-53 regular season, Maurice Richard 61/155 = 39.4, the gap between the two players in terms of importance to their teams offensive production is not as great as suggested by the raw stats.

Just so I'm understanding what you're saying here, playing on a team that spreads it's ice-time among 4 units would necessarily depress a player's offensive totals - so how would looking at the percentage of goals a player was in on make up that gap? Common sense would dictate that would punish a player in a 4-line rotation even more. Correct me if I'm missing what you're saying here.

Also, Sv% is an averaging stat that does the same thing regardless of games-played (after a certain sample size is achieved), so it's not at all surprising it translates better to the playoffs (where some teams play 25 games and some play 5) than an adjusted counting stat like VsX. Is the idea that we shouldn't use counting stats to judge players at all? If not, it's a disgenuous comparison.

 

[Captain Bowie]

Voting is open now right?

 

[Hardyvan123]

voted

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

We're talking about 1981, not 1980. Barber was the 2nd highest scoring LW in the league after Charlie Simmer, who was in the middle of his 2-season spike.

In any case, why does Barber not get the same benefit of the doubt that everyone else gets when their AS voting is a lot higher than their scoring finish?

1981 was a decent season for Barber - 15th in goals, 56th in assists, 22nd in points.

His All-Star voting was not higher than his scoring finish. Charlie Simmer (centered by Marcel Dionne) was the only LW who outscored Barber. Anton Statsny tied Barber for 2nd in scoring among LWs - again, 22nd among all players.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm also thinking in terms of the LW/RW disparity. Barber led his team in scoring by a large margin (ahead of MacLeish, Leach, Clarke and Propp) yet he was way behind the likes of RWs Jacques Richard, Wilf Paiment and Wayne Babych on the leaguewide leaderboard. IMO, those guys are not better "talent depth" than guys like Barber and Propp (unless someone can convincingly argue otherwise). So just looking at point totals to judge the entire LW position is going to be problematic. So if AS voting is going to be dismissed according to point standings as well, all of a sudden it's damn near impossible for a good LW to compare favorably to a mediocre RW.

Are you proposing that there is something about the nature of the LW position that makes it harder to put up points than as a RW? What would that be?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Are you proposing that there is something about the nature of the LW position that makes it harder to put up points than as a RW? What would that be?

First thing that comes to mind is that the late 70s were just after the introduction of the Euro-style defensive systems where the LW played more conservatively. I'm honestly not sure how prevalent that change was league-wide, but it would have had an effect on the teams that used it.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

First thing that comes to mind is that the late 70s were just after the introduction of the Euro-style defensive systems where the LW played more conservatively. I'm honestly not sure how prevalent that change was league-wide, but it would have had an effect on the teams that used it.

You're speaking of the Left Wing Lock, specifically used by Czechoslovakia in the 70s to counter the USSR. I know that the NHL started using a few European defensive strategies in the late 70s (spearheaded by Bowman's Canadiens, I believe) with Sather's Oilers the first team to fully utilize the European East-West offensive game.

I'm not sure how big the LWL was then - I know the media made a big deal when Bowman brought it to the Red Wings in the mid 90s, but it could have been a thing in North America before. Not sure how widespread it was by the late 70s, though.

So anyway, playing LW in the LW lock absolutely would depress a LW's point totals - I'm just skeptical whether Barber was in such a situation.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I've seen the NHL use of the LWL attributed to Bob Johnson with the Flames. That would get us back to the early 1980s, at least.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Just so I'm understanding what you're saying here, playing on a team that spreads it's ice-time among 4 units would necessarily depress a player's offensive totals - so how would looking at the percentage of goals a player was in on make up that gap? Common sense would dictate that would punish a player in a 4-line rotation even more. Correct me if I'm missing what you're saying here.

Also, Sv% is an averaging stat that does the same thing regardless of games-played (after a certain sample size is achieved), so it's not at all surprising it translates better to the playoffs (where some teams play 25 games and some play 5) than an adjusted counting stat like VsX. Is the idea that we shouldn't use counting stats to judge players at all? If not, it's a disgenuous comparison.

No. If the comparison is between forwards by position on a three line rotation and a four line rotation then the forwards on a three line rotation would have inflated ice time. So their numbers would have to be viewed accordingly.Point is understanding the impact of a three line vs a four line rotation.

Question would be how much of an impact does the 4th line have?

1959-60 Canadiens were a four line rotation team. The 4th line center, Ralph Backstrom scored 28 points:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/MTL/1960.html

1959-60 Art Ross winner was Bobby Hull with 81 points.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1960.html

Other than Beliveau and Henri Richard with 74 and 73 points respectively, the remaining top scorers were all playing on three line rotation teams. Distribute Backstrom's points amongst the top three Canadiens centers and the Ross result may be different.

Remove the weak scoring 4th line(4th and below highest scoring C/RW/LW) allows you to see how effective the top three lines could be with the inflated ice time.

SV% often explains why certain goalies only played 5 instead of 25 playoff games in a given post season.

Counting stats have their place in player evaluations but everything should be included in the count. Number of lines especially.

 

[Johnny Engine]

1959-60 Canadiens were a four line rotation team. The 4th line center, Ralph Backstrom scored 28 points:

...

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1960.html

Other than Beliveau and Henri Richard with 74 and 73 points respectively, the remaining top scorers were all playing on three line rotation teams. Distribute Backstrom's points amongst the top three Canadiens centers and the Ross result may be different.

The specific link you included showed that 2 of the top 6 scorers in the NHL came from 1 of the 6 NHL teams (the aforementioned 4-line team). While there clearly aren't enough players listed to draw any real conclusion, what you did present to me shows the opposite of what you just claimed.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I've seen the NHL use of the LWL attributed to Bob Johnson with the Flames. That would get us back to the early 1980s, at least.

Thanks. Now that I think of it, I've seen that attribution, as well.

Which wouldn't really be relevant to the late 70s/early 80s lull in LW scoring that we are talking about.

Another possible reason for it - rapid NHL expansion led to more rosters spots on scoring lines than there were top scorers. Most of the best overall North American forwards were moved to center, the most important position on the ice. The best snipers are generally made right wings rather than left wings, since most Canadian hockey players are left-handed shots, which means most centers would be on their forehand passing to the right side.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Left Wing

Are you proposing that there is something about the nature of the LW position that makes it harder to put up points than as a RW? What would that be?

Left wingers have won the fewest number, by forward position, of Art Ross Trophies since the inception of the award:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/awards/ross.html

LW also offers the shooter the worst shooting target. The vast majority of goalies catch with their right hand so the stick covers the left wing leaving a smaller opening than that faced by the RW.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Left wingers have won the fewest number, by forward position, of Art Ross Trophies since the inception of the award:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/awards/ross.html

LW also offers the shooter the worst shooting target. The vast majority of goalies catch with their right hand so the stick covers the left wing leaving a smaller opening than that faced by the RW.

Again, the explanation I've seen given is that the best snipers are moved to right wing, because that puts them in better position to receive passes from left-handed centers, which constitute the large majority of Canadian centers.

So basically LWs score less because they tend to be lesser talents.

What you say seems plausible as well, but again, wouldn't you want your best snipers on the right side, where they would have the best opportunity to score?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Left wingers have won the fewest number, by forward position, of Art Ross Trophies since the inception of the award:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/awards/ross.html

That shows outcomes. It doesn't show whether or not those outcomes are caused by strategic reasons, or by quality reasons.