Round 2, Vote 11 (HOH Top Defensemen)

Hockey Outsider

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One thing I can do to start is look at their adjusted even strength goals against:

Zubov: 944 in 1056 games (0.89/game)
Wilson: 947 in 1024 games (0.92/game)

Does this take goaltending/teammates into account? Wilson spent the majority of his career playing in front of Tony Esposito (though only half of that can really be considered his prime) and Murray Bannerman. Zubov spent most of his career playing in front of Belfour and Turco (plus some time with Richter). Since we're talking about the Esposito from 1978 onwards, I think Wilson generally played in front of weaker goaltending (which makes his goals against numbers look worse relative to Zubov's).

Wilson played with some responsible two-way players like Larmer and Murray, but Zubov spent most of his career playing with Modano and Lehtinen, on one of the most disciplined and defense-oriented teams in the league (Hitchcock's doing). Hatcher (and whoever partner was, generally Matvichuk) almost always took on the toughest defensive assignments, allowing Zubov to play easier minutes - anybody can correct me if I'm wrong, but fairly sure nobody sheltered Wilson in the same way.

Edit: I disagreed with some of HO's comparison of Wilson to Blake, but I think Wilson is closer to Blake than he is to Zubov.

In my defense, I wrote that a few years ago, and Blake added to his already-superior longevity. I also consider Wilson closer to Blake than Zubov. The Blackhawk will likely be in my top five this round.
 

seventieslord

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Leaving in their best seasons, and this is how they compare (eliminating identical finishes):

Wilson: 1st, 4th
Zubov: 8th, 8th, 9th, 9th

I wish I never started this mindset with the Sakic/Yzerman thing a few years back. It doesn't really prove a lot and tends to make small differences look much bigger.

I don't see how the above is any different from saying "Wilson outscored Zubov in his career 827-771. Eliminate 750 points from each of them and it's 77-21!"

1, 3, 4, 4, 8 vs. 3, 4, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 12, 13 says much more than the above.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I wish I never started this mindset with the Sakic/Yzerman thing a few years back. It doesn't really prove a lot and tends to make small differences look much bigger.

I don't see how the above is any different from saying "Wilson outscored Zubov in his career 827-771. Eliminate 750 points from each of them and it's 77-21!"

1, 3, 4, 4, 8 vs. 3, 4, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 12, 13 says much more than the above.

Why are you including seasons when Zubov just got a single 3rd place vote?

At this point, I don't think there are any big differences, so making small differences look bigger is useful in comparing these guys. I think Wilson is a step up from Zubov, but at this point in the game, "one step" could be 20 points in the rankings. (See the growing difference between Blake and Wilson when I think Wilson is only one step down).
 

seventieslord

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Does this take goaltending/teammates into account? Wilson spent the majority of his career playing in front of Tony Esposito (though only half that can really be considered his prime) and Murray Bannerman. Zubov spent most of his career playing in front of Belfour and Turco (plus some time with Richter).

no, it doesn't, and that's why I asked the team-related questions after that.

Wilson played with some responsible two-way players like Larmer and Murray, but Zubov spent most of his career playing with Modano and Lehtinen. Hatcher (and whoever part was, generally Matvichuk) almost always took on the toughest defensive assignments, allowing Zubov to play easier minutes - anybody can correct me if I'm wrong, but fairly sure nobody sheltered Wilson in the same way.

Sheltered, maybe not, but was he ever a shutdown player himself?
 

seventieslord

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I don't have time to check now, but that last 9, 12, 13 seems to fall under the Sturminator standard for meaningful finishes that I've adapted.

maybe they do, maybe they don't - I've forgotten what that standard is. but I know I didn't include any year with just a single vote.

the worst were 0-0-2-0-0 (9th) and 0-0-0-1-2 (12th)
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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That 12th wouldn't count for me because he doesn't have a single top 3 vote and they only did top 3 votes before the mid 90s. So not fair to players who played before the mid 90s to count such votes for newer players, when the older players literally could not get them.

I use multiple top 3 finishes as the cutoff. It's possible I missed something though
 

Hardyvan123

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Although I have a great deal of respect for Alan Ryder and his research, I don't think we should be using his work to make a case for/against specific players.

1. The formula is extremely complicated and technical. I doubt anybody here (myself included) fully understands the details. I don't like the idea of relying on a mathematical formula to "prove" a player's value when the formula itself is not fully understood.

2. People pick and choose when they want to use Alan Ryder's research, and when they want to ignore it. I'm sure that if I said that Zubov was ranked higher than Lidstrom in 2005-06, or Jagr only being the 7th most valuable forward in the league, they would dismiss it.


People do the 2nd thing all the time. the main reason I brought up Ryder's work is that he is extremely in depth and it provides another point of view from the already existing point of view.

Since the defensive metric is alot harder to measure than simple scoring stats for offensive players, I think that it's good to read his stuff to complement what we already know and to challenge our prevailing thoughts once in a while.

As to your first point we are using quotes to make cases for players without always analyzing the thought process and motivation behind the quotes. IMO the more information we have the better to evaluate players from different times.

I remember Zubov being the #1-ranked player in the league, and it was because of his shootout prowess.

Part of it was from his shootout prowess which was a skill in that season and quite important one as well.

Is that skill any different than Pulford's Defense (or any other defenseman) under the 7 man aside era?

Ironically it most likely would have been better for Zubov and Vlad in this project if the Russian players were still behind the Iron Curtain.
 

Dennis Bonvie

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We know that the best of the Soviets were roughly on part with the best Canadians, as evidenced by the 1972 Summit series.

On paper, the Canadians had the better goalie (Dryden vs Tretiak) and the better forwards (Esposito, Clark, Cournoyer, Ratelle, Mahovlich plus two games each from Mikita and Perreault vs Kharlamov, Mikhailov, Petrov, Yakushev, Starshinov, Maltsev).

The Canadians already have three of their defensemen on this list (Park at #11, Savard at #28, Lapointe at #32) and Stapleton is now eligile for voting as well. The Soviets have a single defenseman on the list (#25).

Given that the Soviet stars proved that they were virtually even with Canada's stars, and given that the Canadians have a clear advantage in net and upfront, it doesn't make sense to imply (as our list does) that the Canadians also had a clear and decisive advantage on the blueline as well. Ragulin, the #2 defenseman on the Soviet team and the man given the "unenviable" task of playing against Phil Esposito, deserves credit for his important role on that team.

If the Canadians had such a massive advantage on the blueline (in addition to their advantages up front and in net), they probably would have won the series 7-1. Are we sure we're giving the Soviet players (particularly their defensemen) enough credit for their individual talents?

Counter-argument #1: perhaps the Soviets played far better than their true talent level implied, so their team was actually weaker than it appeared. I'd dismiss this by showing that the Russians won the 1979 Challenge Cup and 1981 Canada Cup, showing on multiple occasions that their best players were roughly on par with Canada's best players.

Counter-argument #2: the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Due to spending much of the year playing together and/or through superior coaching, perhaps the Soviet team as a whole was as good as a hastily-assembled Canadian team, even though the Canadian players were individually much better than their counterparts. I think there's some truth in this notion (the Soviets did have an advantage in training together) but it can't account for Canada's apparently overwhelming advantage in talent (unless we're overrating the Canadian players and/or underrating the Soviets).

I think argument #2 is valid.

Also, the Canadian team was ill-prepared for the matchup, not in shape and extremely over-confident going in. They were not ready for the Soviet style of play either. It was always up and down the wings for North American teams, they were befuddled by the Soivets willingness to circle, switch wings, pass across the slot in their own end, etc.

But I also think you overestimate the individual talent discrepency. There was no edge in goal for Canada, nor up front. Clark was only 22, not yet a great player. Only Espo, I would argue, was clearly superior in the group mentioned. Kharlamov, Mikhailov, Petrov, Yakushev, and Maltsev were as good, or better, than the rest of the Canadian forwards.
 

Hardyvan123

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Counterargument #3: Consider the 2010 Olympics. I remember some discussion around here about how many Americans would make the Canadian team. I think most posters felt that it would be limited to a goalie or two, and maybe Kane and Kesler.

And yet the US played Canada basically to a draw over two games, losing the important one. It doesn't mean we should rate Brian Rafalski even with Shea Weber, or Jack Johnson even with Chris Pronger.

A team with less talented parts can still play a more talented team close over the course of 2 games or 8 games.

Add to that the difference in conditioning, and the lack of chemistry or structure on the Canadian side
(which mostly showed itself on special teams, where the Soviets outscored Canada something like 9-2 over the series.)

That said, when you consider that Stapleton was at his peak in 1972 and was only the #5 or #6 defenceman on Team Canada, it's not a great endorsement for him.

Edit: The Soviets outscored Canada 9-2 on the PP and 3-1 shorthanded. Yes, Canada's power play was -1 on the series. At even strength, Canada outscored them 28-20.

This is very true and add in that the Soviets played a very advanced, for that time, system and Canada took them lightly at the beginning of the series then it's had to add up.

If Ragulin really stood out in 72 then sure take it into consideration but let's keep the team and player separate.
 

nik jr

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to those advocating zubov this round, is zubov really any better than gonchar? they were very different players, and zubov has the better playoff record and all-round game, as well as higher peak offensive seasons (both in high scoring years), but gonchar was more consistenty elite on the offensive side and i'd consider him the better offensive defenseman all-time. his consistent 55+ point production through the entire DPE was remarkable, one dimensional though he admittedly was.

those two seem really close to me anyway.
imo, zubov was easily better than gonchar.

during zubov's time in dallas, i watched dallas probably more than any team other than DRW. i think zubov was better in every aspect of hockey besides goalscoring.

dallas was generally a conservative offensive team, so his stats are not as great as they were on a more offensive team like NYR or pittsburgh.

imo, zubov was consistently undervalued by norris and AS voters, b/c he was between a pure offensive d-man like gonchar, a great defensive d-man like stevens or hatcher and great 2 way players like lidstrom or pronger.

What does it all mean?

Pat Stapleton played 215 NHL games before expansion, and 372 games in the WHA. Those stats are not included here. He finished 3rd in Norris voting in 1965-66, so that year should ideally be included in his prime. That said, in the NHL stats I have, he shows a clear peak from 68-69 to 71-72.

Stapleton played huge minutes in his prime years, as you can tell from the usage statistics. This was more common at the time, as teams were still using four or five regular defencemen, not six, and Stapleton and his fellow defencemen were just starting to be used more on the power play. But even considering the era, Stapleton probably played as many minutes as any player in the league.

He was a tremendous skater and an effective puck mover, putting up a lot of points at even strength. He was also used on the power play and penalty kill extensively in his prime years, starting in 1968-69, when he stepped into Pierre Pilote's old role as Chicago's #1 defenceman.

Drawbacks? Well, he wasn't on either top special teams unit prior to 1968-69 - maybe a similar situation to Scott Niedermayer on the Devils? And his numbers started dropping off in 1972-73 before he went to the WHA, although he did score 10 goals that year.

Important to remember that is was easier for stars to put up good numbers in some of these stats in the 1970s, especially team based stats, because of the lack of parity.

Doug Wilson was an all-around #1 defenceman for about a decade, and was a Norris and all-star contender when he could stay healthy. Staying healthy was the major challenge in his career and is the reason he isn't in the HHOF.

He was a power play mainstay over his whole career, with his offensive skills and hard shot. But he also had a large role on the penalty kill and was solid defensively.

Vladimir Konstantinov is a hard player to rank. Short career, and he played in a bit of an extreme team situation.

I've isolated his 95-96 and 96-97 seasons as his peak. But his usage numbers in those seasons are pretty similar to the rest of his career - the main difference is that his plus-minus skyrocketed. A sudden change like that makes me wonder if was a change in the team situation or context. Did playing with the Russian Five make a big difference?

Konstantinov probably could have played a larger role on the power play and scored more points on a weaker team, but that wasn't necessary on a stacked Detroit team. He also had some seasons in Russia that are not included here.

Sergei Zubov was a very good offensive defenceman for a long time. He went from being poor defensively to being a useful defender later in his career, and was a plus defender under post-lockout rules when skating ability became more important than size and strength.

But he never really had a big season where he was a legitimate Norris contender. (Yes, I know about Alan Ryder's player contribution. No, I'm not a fan of stats that include skills competition results in rating hockey players.)

imo, playing with the russian 5 was very important. they were unique and often confused opponents, had the puck far more than opponents, were generally dominant and fyodorov was the best 2 way F in the world at that time.
 
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tarheelhockey

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Edit: I disagreed with some of HO's comparison of Wilson to Blake, but I think Wilson is closer to Blake than he is to Zubov.

I agree -- earlier I compared Wilson to MacInnis, but Blake is probably a closer match.

The only problem is that Wilson didn't stay healthy enough to have the big career achievements. That leaves a little margin for a guy like Zubov to squeak past him with consistency. Still not sure whether that is the case... maybe I'll pick it up tomorrow.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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imo, zubov was easily better than gonchar.

during zubov's time in dallas, i watched dallas probably more than any team other than DRW. i think zubov was better in every aspect of hockey besides goalscoring.

dallas was generally a conservative offensive team, so his stats are not as great as they were on a more offensive team like NYR or pittsburgh.

imo, zubov was consistently undervalued by norris and AS voters, b/c he was between a pure offensive d-man like gonchar, a great defensive d-man like stevens or hatcher and great 2 way players like lidstrom or pronger.



imo, playing with the russian 5 was very important. they were unique and often confused opponents, had the puck far more than opponents, were generally dominant and fyodorov was the best 2 way F in the world at that time.

But was Zubov better than Hatcher? I they both retired in 2004, does anyone take Zubov over Hatcher?
 

tarheelhockey

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One way to look at Zubov vs Wilson head-to-head is to consider how they fit into their respective generational cohorts.

For the purpose of this analysis, I arbitrarily consider a "generation" to be that player's draft class as well as the 3 draft classes before and after.

Zubov
Name | Draft | GP | Adj. Pts | Norris finish | AS | Cup | HoH Rank
Nicklas Lidstrom|1989|1543|1217|7-2-1-1-0|10/2|4|5
Chris Pronger|1993|1167|758|1-0-3-1-2|1/3|1|20
Scott Niedermayer|1991|1263|787|1-2-0-0-1|3/1|4|33
Rob Blake|1988|1270|806|1-0-2-1-1|1/3|1|44
Sergei Zubov|1990|1068|822|0-0-1-1-0|0/1|2|eligible
Sergei Gonchar|1992|1103|810|0-0-0-3-1|0/0|1|n/a
Vladimir Konstantinov|1989|446|173|0-1-0-1-0|0/1|1|eligible
Derian Hatcher|1990|1045|354|0-0-1-0-0|0/1|1|n/a
Eric Desjardins|1987|1143|600|0-0-0-1-1|0/2|1|n/a
Sandis Ozolinsh|1991|875|609|0-0-1-0-0|1/0|1|n/a
Adam Foote|1989|1154|328|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|2|n/a
Bryan McCabe|1993|1135|562|0-0-0-1-0|0/1|0|n/a
Kimmo Timonen|1993|942|556|0-0-0-0-1|0/0|0|n/a
Mathieu Schneider|1987|1289|773|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|1|n/a

I'll try and do a table like this for Wilson in the morning.

I'd say that of the non-inducted, Gonchar is the one who can be argued ahead of Zubov. Konstantinov would likely have passed him if not for the accident, so I guess we have to account for that on our own.

I love the way Vladdy played the game, but IMO his career was just too short to be considered for this list.
 

tarheelhockey

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I ranked both Desjardins and Hatcher over Zubov (and Gonchar) on my list

Can you summarize the reasons why?

Sneak peek, for the sake of conversation: among blueliners drafted between Howe ('74) and Bourque ('79), Wilson is the most offensively prolific by a very large margin. He and Langway are the only players from that group who will come near the top-60 list. We might consider the generational shift circa 1980, and possible reasons for why so few from that cohort went on to stellar careers.
 

Theokritos

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On paper, the Canadians had the better goalie (Dryden vs Tretiak)...

Dryden better than Tretiak? Very arguable.

...and the better forwards (Esposito, Clark, Cournoyer, Ratelle, Mahovlich plus two games each from Mikita and Perreault vs Kharlamov, Mikhailov, Petrov, Yakushev, Starshinov, Maltsev).

Also arguable.
Goals in the 72 Series: Esposito 7, Henderson 7, Yakushev 7, Cournoyer 3, Kharlamov 3, Mikhailov 3, Petrov 3, Shadrin 3.
Assists in the 72 Series: Esposito 6, Maltsev 5, Shadrin 5, Clarke 4, Kharlamov 4, Petrov 4, Yakushev 4.

If anything, I'd say that defence was the one departement where Canada had an advantage in the 72 Series.
 

tarheelhockey

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Wilson
Name | Draft | GP | Adj. Pts | Norris finish | AS | Cup | HoH Rank
Raymond Bourque|1979|1612|1426|5-6-4-4-0|13/6|1|3
Viacheslav Fetisov|1978|546|222|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|2|8
Paul Coffey|1980|1409|1347|3-2-1-1-4|4/4|4|13
Mark Howe|1974|929|610|0-3-0-0-1|3/0|0|26
Rod Langway|1977|994|263|2-0-1-0-2|2/1|1|29
Larry Murphy|1980|1615|1097|0-0-2-1-1|0/3|4|50
Doug Wilson|1977|1024|672|1-0-1-2-0|1/2|0|eligible
Randy Carlyle|1976|1055|523|1-0-0-0-0|1/0|0|n/a
Brad McCrimmon|1979|1222|332|0-0-0-1-0|0/1|1|n/a
Brian Engblom|1975|659|161|0-0-0-0-0|0/1|3|n/a
Kevin Lowe|1979|1254|365|0-0-0-0-1|0/0|6|n/a
Gordie Roberts|1977|1097|344|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|2|n/a
Reed Larson|1976|904|554|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|0|n/a
Ron Greschner|1974|982|504|0-0-0-0-0|0/0|0|n/a

Note: This table includes NHL totals only. Several of the above played either in the WHA or in Europe.


There's a really interesting lack of "giants" on defense between 1974 and 1979. Almost as though the tide of talent pulled back for a half-decade, then returned in that golden age beginning with Bourque and ending with Leetch.

Of the players in that 5-year period, only Langway and Wilson really stick out as all-time greats. Langway of course was a one-way force, leaving Wilson as the only great two-way defenseman to come into the league in a roughly 5-season period. Pretty strange. I'm not sure whether this speaks to changes in the league, the talent pool, the WHA/international situation... and whether it says anything about Wilson. He was part of a very weak talent pool, but stood out as the only one who excelled in an all-round game in the 1980s.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Can you summarize the reasons why?

Sneak peek, for the sake of conversation: among blueliners drafted between Howe ('74) and Bourque ('79), Wilson is the most offensively prolific by a very large margin. He and Langway are the only players from that group who will come near the top-60 list. We might consider the generational shift circa 1980, and possible reasons for why so few from that cohort went on to stellar careers.

Maybe it's because I watched more Flyers games than Stars games, but I just thought Desjardins was just an all-rounder in a way Zubov wasn't. He was the Flyer's #1 in all situations, while Zubov didn't get he toughest defensive matchups. Desjardins played a very unflashy Lidstrom-like style yet managed to be a 2nd Team All Star twice versus once for Zubov. The Flyers were just a much better team whenever he was on the ice than they were when he was off the ice.

As for Hatcher, maybe I'm not giving Zubov enough credit for what he did after the lockout, but I always thought Hatcher was the man on D for the Stars when they were a Stanley Cup contender. As far as I know, Konstantinov, Stevens, and Hatcher are the only defensemen of the last 15 years to be a Norris finalist while scoring less than 40 points.

Here's an article from 2000 - a preview of the Stanley Cup finals that picks Dallas in 5, oops heh - http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_23_224/ai_62703097/pg_2/

Hatcher is listed over Zubov on the Dallas depth chart.

Anyway, Hatcher and Desjardins aren't up for voting, but I really don't see what Zubov has done to stand out from them.
 

tarheelhockey

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Sylvio Mantha

I think Sylvio Mantha is a guy who could get overlooked. I'm not sure if he goes this round (he's no Coulter or Reardon), but I'd like to include him in the top 60 if possible, since I do value contribution to team success and Mantha has a lot of it. Just some brief quotes:

Having read through quite a few old articles in this project, Mantha is one of those names that just keeps popping up. I'd like to get more detail on him before trying to place him in a ranking.

Something noteworthy I've noticed from scanning old game summaries: it wasn't until Mantha's third season, 1925-26, that he actually got a shot at full-time play. Prior to that, he was buried behind the Cleghorn-Coutu pairing and the GP numbers don't make it clear that he didn't actually appear in a number of games.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Now that we are 2 rounds from the end, I think it's time to start thinking about which guys we'd be comfortable not seeing appear on our final list.

In theory, anyone you vote "not top 10" this list, you are considering as not a top 60 defenseman of all time.

I'm very comfortable leaving Howell, Zubov, and Stapleton off of the list. All three were in my top 80, but I just can't see any of them making the top 60.

Also comfortable leaving Konstantinov out provided I don't get sold on his time in the USSR - he was so good for 2 seasons, but really was just an NHL difference maker for those 2 seasons.

I would like to find room for everyone else listed currently on the list, but I just can't obviously.

Anyone want to make a case against a player? (Edit: I think we all know the case against Ragulin right now. I have mixed feelings on him right now, myself)
 
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vadim sharifijanov

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Anyway, Hatcher and Desjardins aren't up for voting, but I really don't see what Zubov has done to stand out from them.

desjardins is a good comparison. i would argue that what zubov did in his best year, desjardins did year in, year out in his prime. desjardins just had the misfortune to be a few years older and play more of his prime against higher level competition (when bourque, macinnis, chelios, stevens, etc. were still clogging up the top five).
 

tarheelhockey

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desjardins is a good comparison. i would argue that what zubov did in his best year, desjardins did year in, year out in his prime. desjardins just had the misfortune to be a few years older and play more of his prime against higher level competition (when bourque, macinnis, chelios, stevens, etc. were still clogging up the top five).

I feel like that's pushing it a bit. Desjardins was only a year older, and retired in 2006 at the same time Zubov was a Norris candidate. Also, to have legitimately led a Stanley Cup winning team in scoring is a pretty large accomplishment even if it came at the expense of his defense.

I like Desjardins, but he definitely did not have peaks as high as Zubov's, nor was he disadvantaged by career timing. Consistency and two-way play would be his best arguments.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I feel like that's pushing it a bit. Desjardins was only a year older, and retired in 2006 at the same time Zubov was a Norris candidate. Also, to have legitimately led a Stanley Cup winning team in scoring is a pretty large accomplishment even if it came at the expense of his defense.

I like Desjardins, but he definitely did not have peaks as high as Zubov's, nor was he disadvantaged by career timing. Consistency and two-way play would be his best arguments.

Desjardins did not have a season like Zubov's 2005-06, but he was quite a bit better than Zubov before the lockout, IMO.

Anyway, Desjardins isn't available for voting. I just really think that Zubov is a guy where it's easy to paint a rosier picture of his career than was actually the case because he had his best year towards the end of his career, and that's what sticks in mind.
 
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