Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 5: Cutter Gauthier, LW, USNTDP -> Boston College

[GKJ]

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[FlyerNutter]

Not sure what you mean. Early round picks are usually picked based on input from all of the scouts in the organization with the GM + Scouting director ultimately making the final decision. USA Hockey is producing more and more players every year and most of the top talent is coming from the USNTDP so I would equate it to taking a player from the CHL in the first round - pretty common and not necessarily indicative of a trend. These guys are also heavily scouted at the international events where there is crossover scouting likely being done. In 2019 specifically, the three most obvious choices at 11 and then 14 were from the USNTDP so there was a pretty decent chance they were taking an American in the first - Boldy, York, Caufield.

Farabee was a Hextall/Pryor pick also. They were gone shortly after that pick was made and before he signed.

I think the bigger trend is the types of players they are selecting. They appear to value size, raw shooting ability and volume shooters. Their selections have also trended to the older side.

I mean, the team from at least my pov seems to be favouring guys from that USNDT.

It's being driven by someone still with the org. Simply curious who that is, because while it may be consensus - there has to be a someone focused on that area one would think.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I mean, the team from at least my pov seems to be favouring guys from that USNDT.

It's being driven by someone still with the org. Simply curious who that is, because while it may be consensus - there has to be a someone focused on that area one would think.

Americans are just damn good at hockey

 

[deadhead]

And in Flyers tradition, they chose high floor over high ceiling.

I think there’s room for that strategy in later rounds and in the absence of high risk/high reward available players, but not in the 1st round, and especially not in the top 5.

Actually you have it backwards.

You go high floor early in the draft b/c you can't afford to miss.

Later in the draft when high floors are still a marginal player, you go high ceiling, b/c missing on a marginal player doesn't hurt much, but hitting the jackpot on a long shot can be a difference maker.

 

[deadhead]

I think the bigger trend is the types of players they are selecting. They appear to value size, raw shooting ability and volume shooters. Their selections have also trended to the older side.

I think that's just how the drafts have unfolded.

I mean first draft, trade down to take York, then trade up for Brink, both undersized.
Attard is the one that fits the mold, size and shooting, but he wasn't until the late 3rd rd.

Second draft, Foerster fits size and shooting, but Andrae is undersized skilled D-man. Traded up for good value in Wisdom and a steal in Desnoyers, who is smaller but smart and feisty..

Third draft, Tuomaala, speed and shoot, then Kosolov, Zanetti and Sampson were size and defense, Sampson's offense probably has surprised them.

Fourth draft, Gauthier, size, speed and shoot, Kaplan, size but playmaker, Bump value pick, MacDonald size and defense.

 

[flyersnorth]

Actually you have it backwards.

You go high floor early in the draft b/c you can't afford to miss.

Later in the draft when high floors are still a marginal player, you go high ceiling, b/c missing on a marginal player doesn't hurt much, but hitting the jackpot on a long shot can be a difference maker.

Ideally it’s a player with a high floor who also has a high ceiling.

I really do hope Gauthier becomes an impact player, but the projections had him at middle six to bottom six. I didn’t see any top line projections.

For Jiricek, the projections have his ceiling as top pairing defenseman.

So if the strategy in the 1st round is to go for BPA over drafting for position, then the Flyers got it wrong.

Again, these are 18 year old kids, and projections are just that - projections. But from what I’ve read, it seems like Jiricek absolutely has the higher ceiling at his position.

Gauthier is having a fine start to his season, and we’ll find out in 4-5 years how things shake out.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

And in Flyers tradition, they chose high floor over high ceiling.

I think there’s room for that strategy in later rounds and in the absence of high risk/high reward available players, but not in the 1st round, and especially not in the top 5.

People keep saying Gauthier lacks a high ceiling.

I don’t agree with that.

There are potential scenarios where Cutter reaches a pretty damn high ceiling.

One scenario is that he becomes a pretty big goal scorer in the NHL — a 30-40 goal guy.

He has the shot, speed, & size to score in the NHL — there’s a reason Nate Leaman recently said Gauthier reminded him of Phil Kessel when Kessel was in college.

We’ll call that the “Kessel” ceiling.

And there’s another scenario where he adapts to center & develops into a Jeff Carter type down the middle.

So I disagree with all of the framing in reading that he’s simply a high floor / low ceiling prospect.

Yeah, he has a high floor because of his size/speed/athleticism, but that’s not mutually exclusive with having the possibility of hitting a high ceiling.

 

[Rich Nixon]

People keep saying Gauthier lacks a high ceiling.

I don’t agree with that.

There are potential scenarios where Cutter reaches a pretty damn high ceiling.

One scenario is that he becomes a pretty big goal scorer in the NHL — a 30-40 goal guy.

He has the shot, speed, & size to score in the NHL — there’s a reason Nate Leaman recently said Gauthier reminded him of Phil Kessel when Kessel was in college.

We’ll call that the “Kessel” ceiling.

And there’s another scenario where he adapts to center & develops into a Jeff Carter type down the middle.

So I disagree with all of the framing in reading that he’s simply a high floor / low ceiling prospect.

Yeah, he has a high floor because of his size/speed/athleticism, but that’s not mutually exclusive with having the possibility of hitting a high ceiling.

These would both be fine and ideal outcomes. I think though even if he gets there in a best-case scenario, the presence of Jiricek on the board and the hopes for one of the franchise's rare top-5 picks will always impact the way people think about Gauthier, at least until the dust has settled and some guy who was picked 9th doesn't inevitably turn into the superstar they shoulda taken.

Or they just end up with another Tippett type. Who knows. Anyway here's a ripper from him:

 

[Ironmanrulez]

I am a fan of Gauthier. Really good tools, size, skating, shot, decent playmaker. I was very happy with the pick and remain so. After Cooley, and Wright, he was the guy I wanted. The Flyers need a top line center, and I thought Cooley and Wright could be that. Gauthier was the next best possibility to be that. He may only be a second line center, but that is better than what they have now, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Coots going forward.

Maybe the Flyers finally get lucky in the lottery/draft and get a no doubt about it number one center like Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson, or maybe get lucky with someone in the 8-10 draft position barring lotto luck. Or maybe Gauthier becomes a number one center? He is still young. Time will tell.

2nd line center with your 5OA picks is a bad outcome! But totally possible when the fat man is drafting with the cucky man

 

[Ghosts Beer]

These would both be fine and ideal outcomes. I think though even if he gets there in a best-case scenario, the presence of Jiricek on the board and the hopes for one of the franchise's rare top-5 picks will always impact the way people think about Gauthier, at least until the dust has settled and some guy who was picked 9th doesn't inevitably turn into the superstar they shoulda taken.

Or they just end up with another Tippett type. Who knows. Anyway here's a ripper from him:

I’m going to hold firm on my skepticism regarding how Jiricek’s puck game will translate to the NHL.

There were many things I liked about Jiricek — size, shot, physicality, great enthusiasm.

But ultimately I removed him from my personal list at 5 overall because the more I watched, I couldn’t get over the feeling that he’s going to struggle with the puck in the NHL. Struggle in tight & with less time & space.

He looks great in the WJCs & even the AHL, but he won’t be able to play the same way in the NHL.

A little like how Phil Myers looks like a horse against non-NHL competition, but gets exposed at the highest level where he can’t simply rely on his raw athleticism.

Anyway, I’m very interested to see how Jiricek’s career goes. Maybe it will indeed end up the case, but I wouldn’t be too quick to say the Flyers will rue drafting Cutter instead.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

2nd line center with your 5OA picks is a bad outcome! But totally possible when the fat man is drafting with the cucky man

2nd line center is probably not a bad outcome from your 5OA actually, but he's a longshot to be even that

 

[Striiker]

There’s a reason a certain style of player ends up at C and a certain style ends up at wing.

Gauthier isnt the C type.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Mintyukov might be the defenseman they regret passing on. That guy is flirting with an OHL scoring title lol.

 

[deadhead]

Actually, Tippett is starting to play up to his draft slot (#10), on a 20+ goal pace, 1.9+ pp/60, scores on the PP, may be the fastest Flyer with the puck. Still needs work on his ice vision at both ends, but a much better passer than advertised.

Gauthier has a great wrist shot and that's the key for top goal scorers.

 

[Magua]

They key for top goal scorers is to get to the slot/net regularly. If you rely on top of the circles shots, I can tell you how hard the wall you'll run into will be. Now, when Gauthier is playing off puck with a Cooley caliber player, he can find soft spots or rush chances, although I wouldn't call him a greasy goal scorer either. When he has the puck, it's a lot more low danger settling.

 

[flyersnorth]

People keep saying Gauthier lacks a high ceiling.

I don’t agree with that.

There are potential scenarios where Cutter reaches a pretty damn high ceiling.

One scenario is that he becomes a pretty big goal scorer in the NHL — a 30-40 goal guy.

He has the shot, speed, & size to score in the NHL — there’s a reason Nate Leaman recently said Gauthier reminded him of Phil Kessel when Kessel was in college.

We’ll call that the “Kessel” ceiling.

And there’s another scenario where he adapts to center & develops into a Jeff Carter type down the middle.

So I disagree with all of the framing in reading that he’s simply a high floor / low ceiling prospect.

Yeah, he has a high floor because of his size/speed/athleticism, but that’s not mutually exclusive with having the possibility of hitting a high ceiling.

I really hope that’s the case. If he turns out to be a 30-40 goal scorer, 60-70 points, that’s great.

I was just going off what analysts were projecting for these guys leading up to the draft. Jiricek had a higher consensus projection. Best case scenario is that Gauthier is like Pettersson in terms of really surprising on the upside and almost instantly.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Mintyukov might be the defenseman they regret passing on. That guy is flirting with an OHL scoring title lol.

I keep forgetting that the Ducks have Pastujov in addition to him and Zellweger.

 

[lakai17]

I keep forgetting that the Ducks have Pastujov in addition to him and Zellweger.

And Tyson Hinds

 

[FLYguy3911]

I keep forgetting that the Ducks have Pastujov in addition to him and Zellweger.

And Tyson Hinds

 

[Chinatown88]

And Tyson Hinds

The quintessential Chinatown Guy™ because I kind of thought he had a cool last name.

 

[deadhead]

I really hope that’s the case. If he turns out to be a 30-40 goal scorer, 60-70 points, that’s great.

I was just going off what analysts were projecting for these guys leading up to the draft. Jiricek had a higher consensus projection. Best case scenario is that Gauthier is like Pettersson in terms of really surprising on the upside and almost instantly.

Jiricek also had some issues with a knee, given the Flyers recent injury history, that might have soured them on him.

 

[Magua]

 

[Rebels57]

I am a fan of Gauthier. Really good tools, size, skating, shot, decent playmaker. I was very happy with the pick and remain so. After Cooley, and Wright, he was the guy I wanted. The Flyers need a top line center, and I thought Cooley and Wright could be that. Gauthier was the next best possibility to be that. He may only be a second line center, but that is better than what they have now, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Coots going forward.

Maybe the Flyers finally get lucky in the lottery/draft and get a no doubt about it number one center like Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson, or maybe get lucky with someone in the 8-10 draft position barring lotto luck. Or maybe Gauthier becomes a number one center? He is still young. Time will tell.

He might not be a Center at all lol

 

[GKJ]

Elliotte Friedman saying on 32T that it’s looking like Gauthier is staying in school.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

good call. let him dominate with Smith next year, then maybe get a look in the NHL at the end of next season.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Good. Let him stay there. No need to rush him.

Hell, at this point, I could see Couts-Frost-Foerster being the centers for next year.