Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 27: Morgan Frost, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

[Magua]

I forgot I took Frost in our mock draft.

People will say they passed up on Tolvanen (everyone did really) but he's not the type of player the Flyers value. Undersized, shot first winger, not much defensive value, and possible character concerns.

We'll see how it turns out.

100% agreed. In my head I was trying to think who it would be and Tolvanen didn't make sense. Frost made a ton of sense, I just didn't think they'd move what was required to get him at 27. Like I had Tolvanen higher, but I liked Frost more (no hindsight honest) and preferred he was the actual pick. I thought Tolvanen would be long gone so just erred that way having him higher. But Frost is a pure Hexy pick.

 

[Alchemy]

We have so many centers now... Frost, Patrick, Rubstov, Vorobyev, Giroux, and Couts.

I sense Frost and Rubstov could move to winger?

 

[Magua]

We have so many centers now... Frost, Patrick, Rubstov, Vorobyev, Giroux, and Couts.

I sense Frost and Rubstov could move to winger?

Yes. But it's interesting in that it could be a choice and not because they can't play center. Both their soft hands and puck skills would play on wing. But they are both centers to me too. Versatility means everything.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Hey was rated in top 3o by most if not all. You wanted him at 44?

Not sure to whom you're referring. Here's 12 of the most reputable (or well known) lists. Frost is not on any of them.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017-draft/2017-nhl-draft-rankings

Here's another one that he's not on:

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017-draft/2017-nhl-draft-rankings

Another:

https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2017/

Another:

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/rankings/2017-nhl-draft-rankings-may-edition/

 

[Jtown]

this kid dominated the combine as well.

 

[Tripod]

The day that killed Schenn, Carter, Richards, Hartnell, vanReimsdyk...

It is really funny...

 

[frost king]

Worst case you could always hire his dad Andy Frost to be the Flyers PA announcer, as he used to do that for the Leafs until they dumped him last year.

 

[Jtown]

Worst case you could always hire his dad Andy Frost to be the Flyers PA announcer, as he used to do that for the Leafs until they dumped him last year.

the flyers pa announcer is a living legend. won't happen.

 

[Winston Wolf]

He's the next Travis Sanheim:

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2...gan-frost-in-2013-hahahah-the-flyers-are-****

 

[tictactoe]

Not sure to whom you're referring. Here's 12 of the most reputable (or well known) lists. Frost is not on any of them.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017-draft/2017-nhl-draft-rankings

Here's another one that he's not on:

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017-draft/2017-nhl-draft-rankings

Another:

https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2017/

Another:

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/rankings/2017-nhl-draft-rankings-may-edition/

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=317025

http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectbrowse.htm

https://ohlwriters.me/2017/03/09/morgan-frost-soo-greyhounds-player-profile/
29th I think. Not saying he is a sure thing.. This is not a horrible trade. We do not even know where Blues will finish next year.

 

[deadhead]

Frost is an "upside" pick, really came on this year, which means most of the amateur lists would miss him. That slight build reflects his youth, won't turn 19 until May, if he was 19 in September that might have meant 10 more lbs on his frame at that age.

They're betting on Hockey IQ and skills and his skating taking a jump when he fills out, he's critiqued for being "soft," but I think that just reflects being 6'0 170, it's not like he isn't willing to try but until he fills out he'll be limited on the forecheck and defensively.

It's always a gamble with projections, but if he fills out to 190 in 2-3 years, with his skills he could be a heck of a player.

 

[Random Forest]

Please remember, the later you get in the draft, the less meaning the term "reach" has. If you take a guy at 75 who was ranked 100, you didn't make an enormous "reach" for that selection.

Taking a guy who was ranked ~40-50 at 27 really isn't a big reach in this particular draft where the quality dropped by the middle of the first round. It was pretty wide open at #27.

 

[Striiker]

I think they're taking a gamble on him. I don't think they make this trade unless they're really betting on him to make a huge leap forward next year. We'll see I guess. Could change the trade from bad to good if he turns out to be a gem.

 

[Winston Wolf]

TSN had him ranked at 38 and he was a clear riser, so this isn't that far of a reach.

 

[FLYguy3911]

To be fair, the Flyers could use a few shot first players. I'm not saying that Tolvanen is the guy they needed, but I don't know that avoiding goal scorers in favor of passers with more defensive acumen is always the way to go.

Analytical people would disagree with you. If you have enough smart, well rounded players, you're going to be in a position to get shots on net. Yeah we all went that guy that can rip em top shelf from 40 feet out, but how many guys can do that in today's game?

I know all of like 3 other people are going to get this, but highly drafting undersized wingers whose value is mostly in their shot is like drafting a high K guy who is stuck at 1B. You'd better be right on the goal scoring or there's nothing there. I want Centers early like I want up the middle position players.

Exactly. Or like a Nick Williams. Doesn't walk, strikes out a ton, doesn't play a premium position. The HR's are nice but are they enough to offset the other deficiencies?

since 2008

luca sbisa, coots, laughton , morin, sanheim, provy,koneck, rubstov



sbisa, laughton, and morin are pretty questionable picks

the only sure fire good picks are provy which was a no brainer, and coots which was a no brainer. rubstov sanheim are unproven

Why start at 2008? Ever take a peak at other teams?

Sbisa has 465 NHL games and counting before his 28th birthday. What do you expect from the 19th overall pick? The odds of the 19th overall pick playing just 200 NHL games is about 40%.

Laughton is not established but did you see what went behind him? Wasn't a good draft. He's still an NHL player.

Morin will be an NHL player.

 

[The Madrigal]

TSN had him ranked at 38 and he was a clear riser, so this isn't that far of a reach.

That was his BEST ranking though.

Ranked #38 by TSN/McKenzie
Ranked #31 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)
Ranked #41 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #55 by Future Considerations
Ranked #61 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #72 by ISS Hockey

Major reach based on the rankings.

 

[Winston Wolf]

That was his BEST ranking though.

Ranked #38 by TSN/McKenzie
Ranked #31 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)
Ranked #41 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #55 by Future Considerations
Ranked #61 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #72 by ISS Hockey

Major reach based on the rankings.

It was his best ranking and also the most accurate when it comes to actual NHL scouts.

 

[Jtown]

Analytical people would disagree with you. If you have enough smart, well rounded players, you're going to be in a position to get shots on net.

Exactly. Or like a Nick Williams. Doesn't walk, strikes out a ton, doesn't play a premium position. The HR's are nice but are they enough to offset the other deficiencies?


Why start at 2008? Ever take a peak at other teams?

Sbisa has 465 NHL games and counting before his 28th birthday. What do you expect from the 19th overall pick. The odds of the 19th overall pick playing just 200 NHL games is 40%.

Laughton is not established but did you see what went behind him? Wasn't a good draft. He's still an NHL player.

Morin will be an NHL player.

zac rinaldo has played 275 games. playing games in the nhl doesnt matter, contributing to wins does and that something sbisa laughton, and rinaldo have not done.

I think our great record in first rounds has been exaggerated. We like to think of the flyers at better than most teams in a certain area but in reality we aren't we just haven't had as many first round selections as other teams and as because we have gotten giroux, and richards late that has helped create this idea we are a great drafting first round team.

we just like all teams have the same success given where we select inthe draft.

 

[Dod93Cityt]

It was his best ranking and also the most accurate when it comes to actual NHL scouts.

So does anyone know the conditions of the 2018 pick? I didnt hear and it only said "2018 Conditional Pick" on tv

 

[whitstifier]

So does anyone know the conditions of the 2018 pick? I didnt hear and it only said "2018 Conditional Pick" on tv

2018 1st round pick unless it's top 10, in which case the pick gets pushed to 2019.

 

[FlyTimmo]

More I read about this pick the more I am growing to like it.

Trading Schenn now opens up another top-6 spot. Patrick and Lindblom feel like locks to be on the team next year barring any future moves.

This is one of those trades we will look back on and say, you were right hexy.

 

[The Madrigal]

So does anyone know the conditions of the 2018 pick? I didnt hear and it only said "2018 Conditional Pick" on tv

One report says that the pick is top 10 protected in 2018 AND the Blues can also defer the pick to 2019 if they choose by adding a 3rd round pick in 2020 into the deal.

Another report says that the pick is top 10 protected in 2018 and the Flyers would get a 3rd in 2020 if it's top 10, but the Flyers will get the pick next year if it fails outside of the top 10.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

So does anyone know the conditions of the 2018 pick? I didnt hear and it only said "2018 Conditional Pick" on tv

It looks like it's the usual NHL protection.

If the Blues pick in the top 10 next year they can choose to defer the first-round pick to 2019

The NHL frequently terms it as the right to defer when a pick is protected rather than putting a hard protection on it. This is why the original Friedman tweet read so confusingly. If the pick is 11-30, it belongs to the Flyers. If it's 1-10, STL has the option to defer it or not. If they do, it costs them an extra 3.

 

[The Madrigal]

Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli 1m1 minute ago

Condition of STL 1st to PHI: If in Top 10 in '18, STL can defer to '19. If Top 10 in '19, can defer to '20, when PHI also gets a 3rd.

 

[FLYguy3911]

zac rinaldo has played 275 games. playing games in the nhl doesnt matter, contributing to wins does and that something sbisa laughton, and rinaldo have not done.

I think our great record in first rounds has been exaggerated. We like to think of the flyers at better than most teams in a certain area but in reality we aren't we just haven't had as many first round selections as other teams and as because we have gotten giroux, and richards late that has helped create this idea we are a great drafting first round team.

we just like all teams have the same success given where we select inthe draft.

https://tifubyjoiningreddit.wordpre...e-the-philadelphia-flyers-drafted-since-2000/

10 of 11 players drafted in the 1st round have played 100+ games in the NHL (91%)

First round picks have played a total of 5134 games and accumulated 3002 points (0.58 PPG)

First round picks have an average of 273 points and 467 games played
Notable picks: Justin Williams (28th, 2000), Jeff Carter (11th, 2003), Mike Richards (24th, 2003), Claude Giroux (22nd, 2006), Joni Pitkanen (4th, 2002), James Van Riemsdyk (2nd, 2007), Steve Downie (29th, 2005), Sean Couturier (8th, 2011), Luca Sbisa (19th, 2008), Jeff Woywitka (27th, 2001)

Their only first round pick to not play 100 NHL games is 2012 draftee Scott Laughton who got his first real shot in the NHL last season (31 GP, 6 PTS)

Laughton has since played in 100 games, so that's 11 for 11 (100%).

Since beginning this series we’ve constantly seen teams dethrone the previous best at first round drafting. The Ducks set the bar high early with a success rate of 75 percent and it took 11 teams before the Red Wings finally topped them with an impressive success rate of 80 percent. It took another 7 teams before the Predators managed to set the bar even higher with a whopping 82 percent success rate for their first round picks. Nearing the final 10 teams it seemed like Nashville might finish at the top of the league until the Islanders proved even better with an 86 percent success rate. At this point there was little doubt that the Islanders would keep the title as the best drafting first round team until the Flyers absolutely crushed them with a success rate of 91 percent! To put this into perspective, the average team has an expected first round success rate of only 67 percent.

Let’s break down their first round draft pick success. Despite having 4 less first round picks than the league average they rank first in points with 3002 (nearly 300 more than the next closest team). Their average first round pick has 33 percent more points than the next closest team (273 vs. 205). They also have the highest average games played per player with 26 percent more than the next closest team (467 vs. 372). No matter what stat you look at there’s little doubt that the Flyers are the best drafting first round team over the last 15 years.

Again it's 100% not 91% since the article was written. But go ahead with whatever narrative you want to run with.