Roster Speculation '17-'18: Someone, Somewhere, In Summertime

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I have to respectfully disagree. Neither one had shown they had outgrown the AHL prior to the season.

Leaving them off the three line setup to start the year was fine, the issue was not turning to a scoring fourth line once Josefson got hurt and the unit became a useless occupier of 6-10 easy minutes. Baptiste/Bailey could have been effective fourth line options off athleticism alone - think Viktor Stalberg - the organization just didn't see much value in that.

I know you said before this season, but each has been extremely productive relative to their competition for roster spots 10-12 over the past 2, and I don't think that ability magically vanished for the first half of this year.

Notable Depth Forward P/60 16-18:

3. Nic Baptiste - 1.66 (2.00 in 16/17)
6. Evan Rodrigues - 1.35
11. Scott Wilson - 1.21
13. Justin Bailey - 1.08 (.71 in 16/17)
14. Marcus Foligno - 1.08
15. Tyler Ennis - 1.05
16. Zemgus Girgensons - .96
17. Matt Moulson - .95
18. Johan Larsson - .94
21. Jacob Josefson - .65
22. Jordan Nolan - .62
23. Seth Griffith - .58

That’s a terrible mentality for a young player who hasn’t proven anything.

I think the young players were under an undeservedly large microscope in camp and I'm not holding a poor initial run of form after a disorienting experience against them. Especially when virtually all have responded to some organizational faith. Guhle in particular was unrecognizable in preseason.

Also, it's kinda frustrating how much better the Sabres have looked when prioritizing what talent they have over developmental message-sending.

 

[joshjull]

Leaving them off the three line setup to start the year was fine, the issue was not turning to a scoring fourth line once Josefson got hurt and the unit became useless occupier of 6-10 easy minutes. Baptiste/Bailey could have been effective fourth line options off athleticism alone - think Viktor Stalberg - the organization just didn't see much value in that.

I know you said before this season, but each has been extremely productive relative to their competition for roster spots 10-12 over the past 2, and I don't think that ability magically vanished for the first half of this year.

Notable Depth Forward P/60 16-18:

3. Nic Baptiste - 1.66 (2.00 in 16/17)
6. Evan Rodrigues - 1.35
11. Scott Wilson - 1.21
13. Justin Bailey - 1.08 (.71 in 16/17)
14. Marcus Foligno - 1.08
15. Tyler Ennis - 1.05
16. Zemgus Girgensons - .96
17. Matt Moulson - .95
18. Johan Larsson - .94
21. Jacob Josefson - .65
22. Jordan Nolan - .62
23. Seth Griffith - .58

Couple of things

1) Bailey was called up 10/15/17 around the time of Josefson's injury. He was then out injured by Nov 1st with an ankle issues. Got sent back to the Amerks a couple weeks later, struggled and then hurt his hand. He wasn't really an option until he finally got back on track scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games before the call up. He battled through injuries and struggled a lot in Rochester. It happens.

2) Baptiste hurt his back in preseason, was sent o the Amerks to start the year once healthy and had a strong start (6gms 5g 2a 7pts). So he was called up on Nov 1st (right as Bailey left with an injury). If you recall he struggled and looked a bit lost in his 4 game stint so was sent back down.

3) Not sure what point there is in using points per 60mins to rate players with different total ice times and experiences/usage. That stat as a stand alone number only means much when comparing players in similar roles/minutes.


Both Bailey and Baptiste were brought up when you wanted them to be and it didn't work out for different reasons.

I think the young players were under an undeservedly large microscope in camp and I'm not holding a poor initial run of form after a disorienting experience against them. Especially when virtually all have responded to some organizational faith. Guhle in particular was unrecognizable in preseason.

I was criticizing your characterization of their attitudes not their struggles. What you described was a terrible attitude for a young player to have. Something I don't actually think they had or they wouldn't have worked through their struggles.

Also, it's kinda frustrating how much better the Sabres have looked when prioritizing what talent they have over developmental message-sending

None of the 5 youngsters (Nelson, Guhle, Bailey, Baptiste and Erod) who are helping us right now were in a position to do it in the 1st half of the season. The reasons for that varied from player to player (injuries, struggles due to injury, not ready, etc).

I get the frustration because I share it. For me its directed at the small amount of players ready to step in within our system and the fact that injuries derailed two of them (Bailey/Erod). But its a bit much arguing these 5 guys could have been up in November contributing like they are now.

 

[joshjull]

@struckbyaparkedcar

Its also never a bad thing to prioritize development. We basically had a reset on that front and it was needed. Your argument is almost 'forget development lets just bring up the fast guys and see if it can make a difference on the 4th line'. I understand the impulse in reaction to the crappy start to the year. But I don't see why that should take priority over trying to develop the youngsters.

We had so many issues derailing the season at the start of the year. Struggling to adapt to a new system, ROR/Okposo's terrible starts to the year, Sam's struggles, Girgs/Larsson not being able to provide offense when we all hoped they would take a step forward, the defense ravaged with injuries, etc.

Not having ready made options in house was another.

We might have gotten things turned around sooner if the 5 youngsters I mentioned previously were where they are now before the season started. But they weren't and it took time for them to get where they are. Hopefully going forward we have them as options because of the progress they may have made this year. That would help quite a bit going forward.

 

[Jame]

None of the 5 youngsters (Nelson, Guhle, Bailey, Baptiste and Erod) who are helping us right now were not in a position to do it in the 1st half of the season.

Agreed

 

[Aladyyn]

Per 60 stats' purpose is literally to compare players with different TOI.

 

[joshjull]

Per 60 stats' purpose is literally to compare players with different TOI.

Its always been a terrible stat for that purpose and Its always been a terrible stand alone stat.

 

[joshjull]

Agreed

Woah

 

[Aladyyn]

Its always been a terrible stat for that purpose and Its always been a terrible stand alone stat.

Still 10 times better than point totals.

 

[Jame]

Woah

don't get too excited... you missed your double negative....

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Baptiste/Bailey got called up to the Reinhart line, the team didn't explore an offensive bottom six line without a major scoring burden until recently. That's the role Baptiste/Bailey have been successful in, and it wasn't really available early in the year.

This is something we had discussed back around when Josefson got hurt, the fourth line was so freaking bad - without occupying any difficult space - that any combination of in-form AHL players would have been an upgrade if they weren't going to specialize it.

 

[joshjull]

don't get too excited... you missed your double negative....

Should have known better that you'd be trolling.

 

[Chainshot]

So I'm wondering why they don't try the double energizer bunny routine with Eichel and instead break up Bailey-Baptiste to work Okposo back in on Jack's wing. Maybe they think Bailey as a possible volume shooter with perhaps under-developed d-zone game is a good fit ala Kane? Would be interesting to see if he shows some growth in his game from last year's sample.

 

[Jame]

Should have known better that you'd be trolling.

It's not trolling if you include a smiley face.

 

[joshjull]

It's not trolling if you include a smiley face.

Touché

 

[is the answer jesus]

So any interest in Adam Mascherin? LW'er 2nd round pick of the panthers from 2016. Custance reported he won't sign with the Panthers and they are looking to move him. In the Kitchener games I've watched he's always stuck out to me. Not the best skater, but he's built like a tank and has a very hard accurate shot.

 

[Jame]

So any interest in Adam Mascherin? LW'er 2nd round pick of the panthers from 2016. Custance reported he won't sign with the Panthers and they are looking to move him. In the Kitchener games I've watched he's always stuck out to me. Not the best skater, but he's built like a tank and has a very hard accurate shot.

If we could convert some of our Rochester guys who are no longer waiver exempt.... go for it.

Fasching+ for Mascherin

 

[AustonsNostrils]

weird, why would Mascherin do that, other than horrible attendance the Panthers are a decent franchise. i never understood what Brendan Lemieux had against us either and nothing ever really came out to explain it.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

@struckbyaparkedcar

Its also never a bad thing to prioritize development. We basically had a reset on that front and it was needed. Your argument is almost 'forget development lets just bring up the fast guys and see if it can make a difference on the 4th line'. I understand the impulse in reaction to the crappy start to the year. But I don't see why that should take priority over trying to develop the youngsters.

We had so many issues derailing the season at the start of the year. Struggling to adapt to a new system, ROR/Okposo's terrible starts to the year, Sam's struggles, Girgs/Larsson not being able to provide offense when we all hoped they would take a step forward, the defense ravaged with injuries, etc.

Not having ready made options in house was another.

We might have gotten things turned around sooner if the 5 youngsters I mentioned previously were where they are now before the season started. But they weren't and it took time for them to get where they are. Hopefully going forward we have them as options because of the progress they may have made this year. That would help quite a bit going forward.

I don't want to rehash our debate about the lack of depth options, or the 3 line setup vs. keeping Reinhart at wing, but it all plays together. The Reinhart line boxed out the possibility of a scoring 4th line to start the year, and it looks like the Reinhart top 6 wing / youth bottom 6 line is just a strictly better setup for this talent. The poor player selection & deployment played into some of the performances, and the awful depth made it even harder for the the team to absorb the rough sledding at the top.

Starting the year with...

Kane-Eichel-Pominville
Reinhart-O'Reilly-Okposo
Larsson-Josefson-Girgensons
Griffith/Smith(eventually Baptiste)-Pouliot-Bailey

Provides a lot of the same incremental advantages we're seeing now, but the organization seemed determined to force the center spine, despite 1 notable wing performance of 6 in Kane, and no offense or transition play from the backend to compensate.

Finally, an offensively focused bottom six role isn't a developmental afterthought. It's a path to applying your best attributes vs NHL competition without having to worry about playing off Eichel, heavy defensive zone starts with O'Reilly, or a line with a heavy offensive burden in Reinhart. Unfortunately, the team didn't see much value in that until recently.

 

[Jim Bob]

weird, why would Mascherin do that, other than horrible attendance the Panthers are a decent franchise. i never understood what Brendan Lemieux had against us either and nothing ever really came out to explain it.

He probably doesn't like the contract offer and would rather roll the dice after leading the Rangers in goals and points in his two post-draft seasons.

 

[is the answer jesus]

If we could convert some of our Rochester guys who are no longer waiver exempt.... go for it.

Fasching+ for Mascherin

Love it. We've got the need for a long-term top 6 LW'er and I like Mascherin's chances of getting there exponentially more than Fasching's. I'd make that plus a decent pick as well.

 

[joshjull]

I don't want to rehash our debate about the lack of depth options, or the 3 line setup vs. keeping Reinhart at wing, but it all plays together. The Reinhart line boxed out the possibility of a scoring 4th line to start the year, and it looks like the Reinhart top 6 wing / youth bottom 6 line is just a strictly better setup for this talent. The poor player selection & deployment played into some of the performances, and the awful depth made it even harder for the the team to absorb the rough sledding at the top.

Starting the year with...

Kane-Eichel-Pominville
Reinhart-O'Reilly-Okposo
Larsson-Josefson-Girgensons
Griffith/Smith(eventually Baptiste)-Pouliot-Bailey

Provides a lot of the same incremental advantages we're seeing now, but the organization seemed determined to force the center spine, despite 1 notable wing performance of 6 in Kane, and no offense or transition play from the backend to compensate.

Finally, an offensively focused bottom six role isn't a developmental afterthought. It's a path to applying your best attributes vs NHL competition without having to worry about playing off Eichel, heavy defensive zone starts with O'Reilly, or a line with a heavy offensive burden in Reinhart. Unfortunately, the team didn't see much value in that until recently.

Again this goes back to your complete dismissal of developing players and pretending what we see from them now was a given back then.

Love the spin about poor Sam and his line’s “heavy offensive burden”.

 

[Icicle]

Next year is going to require minimal moves on offense:

Wilson-ROR-Reinhart
Rodrigues-Eichel-O'Regan
Bapstiste/Bailey-Mittlestadt-Okposo
Girgensons/Smith-Malone/Larsson-Pominville/Fasching

Don't even need a UFA adder, though a solid 3/4C wouldn't hurt. Too bad Josefson is eternally injured

Defense could use more UFA help, but you have to expect:

Guhle-Ristolainen
Scandella-Bogosian
McCabe-Nelson/Antipin
Beaulieu/Fedun

They really could use a UFA replacement for Bogo when he is injured 2 days into the season. I think only one of Nelson and Antipin actually gets re-signed, but neither have shown they can really handle more than bottom pairing. Left side could also use a UFA adder, but it's less important and Guhle needs to step it up.

 

[Jame]

Next year is going to require minimal moves on offense:

Wilson-ROR-Reinhart
Rodrigues-Eichel-O'Regan
Bapstiste/Bailey-Mittlestadt-Okposo
Girgensons/Smith-Malone/Larsson-Pominville/Fasching

Don't even need a UFA adder, though a solid 3/4C wouldn't hurt. Too bad Josefson is eternally injured

Defense could use more UFA help, but you have to expect:

Guhle-Ristolainen
Scandella-Bogosian
McCabe-Nelson/Antipin
Beaulieu/Fedun

They really could use a UFA replacement for Bogo when he is injured 2 days into the season. I think only one of Nelson and Antipin actually gets re-signed, but neither have shown they can really handle more than bottom pairing. Left side could also use a UFA adder, but it's less important and Guhle needs to step it up.

Botterill should be immediately fired in October if this is the case....

 

[Chainshot]

weird, why would Mascherin do that, other than horrible attendance the Panthers are a decent franchise. i never understood what Brendan Lemieux had against us either and nothing ever really came out to explain it.

It has to be something about his shoulder surgery, and his status after that. He didn’t get an invite to the Florida prospect camp or the Panthers training camp.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Again this goes back to your complete dismissal of developing players and pretending what we see from them now was a given back then.

The role we're seeing these players succeed in didn't exist on the opening day roster, due to the insistence on the center spine. We weren't even interested in seeing young players in this type of setup until recently.

The lienup you quoted features the major change of... dropping Nolan/Moulson to rotate the top performing AHL wingers, with Rodrigues' return and the eventual Wilson trade finalizing the level of lineup competition that should have been there in camp.