Roster Speculation '17-'18: Someone, Somewhere, In Summertime

[Moskau]

Its the one part of his game thats still pretty good.

Even though it's a small sample size he appears much stronger this season. He was bouncing off guys like Tyler Johnson last year and it was tough to watch.

 

[joshjull]

Even though it's a small sample size he appears much stronger this season. He was bouncing off guys like Tyler Johnson last year and it was tough to watch.

Granted its early but I think the big reduction in role/usage is probably helping. He wore down fast the last two years trying to keep up with Risto. And in the games he's played the forwards have made a better effort to come back and help the defense.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

conversations like these reinforce how much I dislike where adv. stats have gone

just enough people have just enough information to not realize theyre schopp

 

[Aladyyn]

For fun, a comparison of Gorges and Antipin in their 3 games each at ES.

CF%
Antipin - 39.62% (21 for/32 against)
Gorges - 35.19% (19 for/35 against)

SF%
Antipin - 30.77% (8 for/ 18 against)
Gorges - 33.33% (10 for/ 20 against)

SCF%
Antipin - 42.86% (9 for/ 12 against)
Gorges -42.86% (9 for 12 against)

HDCF%
Antipin - 27.7% (3 for / 8 against)
Gorges - 75% (3 for / 1 against)

Both are getting out attempted and out shot by roughly the same margin. They've given up the exact same amount of scoring chances. Where the big difference comes in Gorges does a much better job defending in front of and around the net than Antipin does. Its the one part of his game thats still good. Its why there is a big difference in HDCA between them

Stats from here http://www.naturalstattrick.com/pla...toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

You mentioned that they've been playing much better team defense these last 2 games. Wouldn't Antipin's numbers be better by default if he didn't sit them out?

 

[joshjull]

You mentioned that they've been playing much better team defense these last 2 games. Wouldn't Antipin's numbers be better by default if he didn't sit them out?

Don't confuse my post with an attack on Antipin. I'd like to see him draw back in and hope he does well. I was just refuting the idea that Gorges was worse than Antipin at everything. Its simply not true.

As for whether or not Antipin's numbers would look better. Probably but its hard to say since much of the reason there is a difference in HDCA is Gorges willingness to battle and sacrifice his body in and around the net. Not sure how much of that is part of Antipin's game. I expect or hope Antipin to eventually be a far better player than Gorges. Primarily because on his game he should get a better balance to the attempts for/against and shots/for against. Which would mean more possession for us and by extension reduce the scoring chances he gives up. Or to put it another way the numbers would look different if Antipin can transfer his game. Not simply reduce his HDCA and everything else stays the same.

 

[Aladyyn]

Don't confuse my post with an attack on Antipin. I'd like to see him draw back in and he has a great future. I was just refuting the idea that Gorges was worse than Antipin at everything. Its simply not true.

As for whether or not Aantipin's numbers would look better. Probably but its hard to say since much of the reason there is a difference in HDCA is Gorges willing to battle and sacrifice his body. Not sure how much of that is part of Antipin's game.

I wasn't trying to paint your post in any way. Just wondering how much of it is Gorges playing well and how much of it is the 17 other guys playing better than before.

 

[joshjull]

conversations like these reinforce how much I dislike where adv. stats have gone

just enough people have just enough information to not realize theyre schopp

If thats directed at me I am supremely offended. I've been called many things but thats a brigde too far sir

 

[joshjull]

I wasn't trying to paint your post in any way. Just wondering how much of it is Gorges playing well and how much of it is the 17 other guys playing better than before.

I'd say a combo with the needle slightly more towards everyone playing better

 

[OkimLom]

Compare opportunities Reinhart got with the opportunities Eichel got. Night and day.

They were on the same line for a good portion last year. They pretty much played the same type of minutes. This year, Reinhart is getting the easier matchups, while Jack is getting the tougher minutes, yet Jack has produced. Sam hasn't.

This isn't a Jack vs Sam issue, please stop turning it into one at every chance. Sam needs to start producing. There's no other way to put it. There's only so much "small victories" before you have to start wondering when the Big Victories are coming. Sam has the matchup advantage, he needs to take advantage of that by scoring goals and assisting on goals at even strength and PP when he has his chances. There are numbers within the game that favor Sam. But he needs to start pushing the needle towards the Sabres winning the lesser matchups on the scoreboard, especially when you have one consistent line producing.

I'm a huge Reinhart fan as much as the next fan, but he needs to score. It's not about being a bust, or where he was drafted, or how much he's winning possession battles, he needs to find ways to put the puck in the net. It's that simple.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Sam has consistently been playing easy competution eith easy starts so it doesnt matter. Fancy stats in isolation are just that, fancy stats in isolation. Sam does not fetch Duchene.

QOC and zone starts have become less meaningful among the analytics community. High danger scoring chances and QOT have become more meaningful.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

QOC and zone starts have become less meaningful among the analytics community. High danger scoring chances and QOT have become more meaningful.

the next flavor of the month that will have fallen out of favor by the end of the season

 

[Der Jaeger]

the next flavor of the month that will have fallen out of favor by the end of the season

Analytics in baseball developed and changed over time as the analysts studied and understood the stats, tested their stats, and developed new measurements. To think that a math-based way of looking at anything was never going to develop and/or change over time as understanding increased is a little silly.

 

[ZZamboni]

They were on the same line for a good portion last year. They pretty much played the same type of minutes. This year, Reinhart is getting the easier matchups, while Jack is getting the tougher minutes, yet Jack has produced. Sam hasn't.

This isn't a Jack vs Sam issue, please stop turning it into one at every chance. Sam needs to start producing. There's no other way to put it. There's only so much "small victories" before you have to start wondering when the Big Victories are coming. Sam has the matchup advantage, he needs to take advantage of that by scoring goals and assisting on goals at even strength and PP when he has his chances. There are numbers within the game that favor Sam. But he needs to start pushing the needle towards the Sabres winning the lesser matchups on the scoreboard, especially when you have one consistent line producing.

I'm a huge Reinhart fan as much as the next fan, but he needs to score. It's not about being a bust, or where he was drafted, or how much he's winning possession battles, he needs to find ways to put the puck in the net. It's that simple.

Well said.

I too am a fan of Reinhart. He is doing a lot of other things right. And even though it's not all
about the pointzzz, it's the one area he needs to get going on.
I have all the faith he will. And if last game is any indication, he's on the cusp. I hope. Even if he's just a .6 - .8 PPG kinda player. I'll be fine with that if he continues to improve on the other areas too.

I've never been one to have the mindset or ZOMG he was drafted 2nd overall, gahhh he must get 50 goals!!!

 

[sabrebuild]

I don't care if people are aggravated by it, it's a fair question. Daigle is the biggest draft bust in history, and he put up numbers that were significantly better than Reinhart. The question is really about expectations vs. reality. The general consensus is that he's not living up to expectations. The difference between "disappointment" and "bust" is nothing but semantics.

Do we think it's possible your expectations were not realistic.

 

[stokes84]

Do we think it's possible your expectations were not realistic.

That's up to you. If your expectations were that by year four, Elliott Friedman would be bringing him up in trade rumors six games into the season, well, maybe your expectations were more realistic than mine.

 

[Der Jaeger]

That's up to you. If your expectations were that by year four, Elliott Friedman would be bringing him up in trade rumors six games into the season, well, maybe your expectations were more realistic than mine.

Plenty of good players get brought up n trade rumors. Has no impact on value. His point was that Reinhart has been asked about 5 games into the season. There's perceived value and a desire to buy low. And the Sabres aren't buying into it.

 

[sabrebuild]

That's up to you. If your expectations were that by year four, Elliott Friedman would be bringing him up in trade rumors six games into the season, well, maybe your expectations were more realistic than mine.

I think Elliote Friedman articles going for the lowest hanging fruit are pretty silly ways to justify your opinions.

I mean that article is like crappy sports journalism 101. Identify talented young guy on an underachieving team, ask league friend if that guy might be a target or trade bait, said league source says ya sure we would make a call.

My expectations for Reinhart have been repeatedly sabotaged by a coach refusing to play him at center and seeing how he does in a role that best fits his skills.

I agree with you that last year was a bummer that he didn't hit a big jump after a respectable rookie year. But I think he will keep improving because I have seen nothing to the contrary. He was always going to be a slow developer compare to other top picks, because he was physically underdeveloped for guys usually drafted there.

Let's put it this way, you'd look pretty stupid asking if the sedin twins were busts at the same time of their careers.

 

[Chainshot]

I think Elliote Friedman articles going for the lowest hanging fruit are pretty silly ways to justify your opinions.

I mean that article is like crappy sports journalism 101. Identify talented young guy on an underachieving team, ask league friend if that guy might be a target or trade bait, said league source says ya sure we would make a call.

My expectations for Reinhart have been repeatedly sabotaged by a coaching refusing to play him at center and seeing how he does in a role that best fits his skills.

I agree with you that last year was a bummer that he didn't hit a big jump after a respectable rookie year. But I think he will keep improving because I have seen nothing to the contrary. He was always going to be a slow developer compare to other top picks, because he was physically underdeveloped for guys usually drafted there.

Let's put it this way, you'd look pretty stupid asking if the sedin twins were busts at the same time of their careers.

Freidman actually says there is no interest from the Sabres at this time and that something like this would only likely start to manifest if the team's terrible play continues for half the season.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think Elliote Friedman articles going for the lowest hanging fruit are pretty silly ways to justify your opinions.

I mean that article is like crappy sports journalism 101. Identify talented young guy on an underachieving team, ask league friend if that guy might be a target or trade bait, said league source says ya sure we would make a call.

My expectations for Reinhart have been repeatedly sabotaged by a coaching refusing to play him at center and seeing how he does in a role that best fits his skills.

I agree with you that last year was a bummer that he didn't hit a big jump after a respectable rookie year. But I think he will keep improving because I have seen nothing to the contrary. He was always going to be a slow developer compare to other top picks, because he was physically underdeveloped for guys usually drafted there.

Let's put it this way, you'd look pretty stupid asking if the sedin twins were busts at the same time of their careers.

Hmm... the Sedin twins. Interesting you bring them up, since Reinhart's game is similar to Henrik's.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

the next flavor of the month that will have fallen out of favor by the end of the season

QoC and zone starts never had a ton of impact on player performance even when all we had were raw shot attempts. They're only really a measure of coach's trust, as some bosses will accept poor shot, low GA performances in defensive roles.

As for the stats, metrics have gone from shot volume to shot volume weighted by the value of where the shot was taken from. That's the whole change. A natural, common-sense progression once additional data was presented, with direct comparisons in other sports. Stats changing with better player tracking is kind of a given.

Also, progression doesn't totally invalidate previous work because it's still better than boxscore stats.

 

[sabrebuild]

Freidman actually says there is no interest from the Sabres at this time and that something like this would only likely start to manifest if the team's terrible play continues for half the season.

Exactly, which means the article basic fodder for the masses.

 

[stokes84]

Exactly, which means the article basic fodder for the masses.

It means that it's not just a few "posters with an agenda" who are wondering about whether he's part of the solution here. National media is too.

 

[Chainshot]

TSN is reporting the Kings running Muzzin and Martinez out on the market to see what they could return either now or later in the season. Given the incremental improvements to the defense and Payne's presence on the staff, I wonder if Botts would go sniffing around there?

 

[Chainshot]

It means that it's not just a few "posters with an agenda" who are wondering about whether he's part of the solution here. National media is too.

No, hockey media are reporting that he is NOT available and won't be unless the team slide continues through half a season.

 

[Jame]

So we broke up Girgs-Eichel to fill the 4th line center spot?

Come on Phil