Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[Nikishin Go Boom]

It's certainly going to be an interesting offseason this year with a lot of new RFA contracts, guys that are pending FAs, question marks.

Jarvis MUST be resigned
Necas either has to be resigned or find a good trade for him (shouldn't be too hard)
Obviously we're probably losing 2 of Skjei, Pesce, Chatty (Chatty should be priority bc he'll be cheapest and fits incredibly well with us)
Guentz is currently a total question mark, probably depends on what he's asking for, how playoffs go, what happens with Necas
Do we keep Turbo or move on from him? Who do you replace him with
What is Nookie worth to keep around a couple more years?
There's the 2C question...Kuzy hasn't been it, KK was at the start of the season but has struggled since, and Drury isn't really there yet...we basically have 4x 3Cs. There are some pending UFA guys who could fill that 2C role, but then you probably have to get rid of 2 of the other guys we have signed.
Probably need 1-2 depth d-men to mentor Morrow or fill in if he's not NHL ready yet.
And then there's planning for the future after Burns is gone, assuming we re-sign Slavin, our defense is barren after next year.

There are a LOT of questions this offseason, and the team COULD look very similar with just a few differences/changes, or DRASTICALLY different with all the potential moving parts. And I know we're not generally a big UFA hotspot, but there are a lot of intriguing UFAs coming up (though some will re-sign with their current team I'm sure)
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I would

Go the bratt route with Jarvis. Give him a 1 year 5 million deal to see if he repeats this performance then go 8 years.

Necas: i try and find a replacement. Super talented but a ghost in the playoffs. I think we could swing a good deal with Utah as they will be looking for marketable players. Or we give him a 1 year deal and punt to next season.

Drury: it better be cheap. Im cool with trading him and going league minimum on the 4C (Pono would have been perfect)
Kuzy: needs to go
Kk: probably should go. One of our better playoff guys so far.
2C: options are Jarvis, seeing if Vegas needs to move karlsson with their cap issues, or ride the frustrating Kuzy train.
Martinook will stay
We’ll need to find cheap depth at the wings as Turbo isn’t coming back
Defense shouldn’t be too bad. Plenty of lefty all defense guys who can play with Morrow.
JG: anything over 8 million aav on a 7+ year deal is too much. The majority of this contract is declining production years. If someone wants to give him a 70+ million, be my guest.

 

[poobags]

I want Noesen to guy chase money on the open market. I have to imagine we have an internal number for his next potential contract and I can't see it anywhere near what he might get elsewhere. Go chase that bread.

 

[bleedgreen]

I would

Go the bratt route with Jarvis. Give him a 1 year 5 million deal to see if he repeats this performance then go 8 years.

Necas: i try and find a replacement. Super talented but a ghost in the playoffs. I think we could swing a good deal with Utah as they will be looking for marketable players. Or we give him a 1 year deal and punt to next season.

Drury: it better be cheap. Im cool with trading him and going league minimum on the 4C (Pono would have been perfect)
Kuzy: needs to go
Kk: probably should go. One of our better playoff guys so far.
2C: options are Jarvis, seeing if Vegas needs to move karlsson with their cap issues, or ride the frustrating Kuzy train.
Martinook will stay
We’ll need to find cheap depth at the wings as Turbo isn’t coming back
Defense shouldn’t be too bad. Plenty of lefty all defense guys who can play with Morrow.
JG: anything over 8 million aav on a 7+ year deal is too much. The majority of this contract is declining production years. If someone wants to give him a 70+ million, be my guest.

I can’t see even a bridge being only 5 million for Jarvis.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I can’t see even a bridge being only 5 million for Jarvis.

Bratt had 73 points when he was given a 1 year 4.875 million bridge

 

[bleedgreen]

Bratt had 73 points when he was given a 1 year 4.875 million bridge

Capfriendly says 5.45 for me?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Capfriendly says 5.45 for me?

For me too. I don’t know what i was looking at. 5.5 million then.

 

[bleedgreen]

For me too. I don’t know what i was looking at. 5.5 million then.

Flat cap at the time. Not so much now and Jarvis is over 30 goals when I don’t think Bratt had that many that particular year. With the cap raise I think we’re going to see six for Jarvis even if it’s a bridge.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That Bratt contract is a Necas comp. RFA-3 with arb rights.

There isn’t a strong comp for a 1 year deal after an ELC for a player of this caliber. I think that the Canes should be able to get another year in that range, if necessary. Zegras, a comp in the sense of being squeezed recently, signed for $5.75 mil, but for 3 years.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Stronger statement than expected concerning Necas.

Nice to have Russo covering the Canes again for a bit.

 

[bleedgreen]

Stronger statement than expected concerning Necas.

Nice to have Russo covering the Canes again for a bit.

Whoa, I mean you can’t trust the guy but that’s a pretty strong statement for Necas. Makes sense to keep all rfa’s because we can, but Necas has been polarizing. I’d love to keep him.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Stronger statement than expected concerning Necas.

Nice to have Russo covering the Canes again for a bit.

yeah pretty interesting on Necas, though I've also learned to not exactly take everything Waddell says as gospel. But if we do keep both Necas and Jarvis I think I'd give both 8 year deals for as low an AAV as we can possibly get away with (hopefully some "hometown"/contender discounts here) and moneypuck the D for a few years. It'll make us less competitive in the next 2-3ish years but we'll have a lot of a very young and good core locked up long term whose contracts will all age spectacularly well as the cap rises and we'll be in incredible shape in 3-4 years and forward, etc.

Not crunching exact numbers here but think we could keep those guys plus even Guentzel if we roll with Slavin-Burns (making an assumption Burns stays on an even cheaper deal after next year), Orlov-Chatty (think we can keep Chat as a reasonably cheap top 4 guy and bank on him being capable in that role compared to his 3rd pair role he's been in) then Nikishin-Chatty after next year, and cheaper 3rd pair with prospects/vets (Morrow, could even see us keeping Orlov around for cheaper than his current deal depending on what his market looks like, etc.)

That is still quite risky on D and is banking on several things going our way including getting Slavin on another steal (7m or less/yr), Burns staying effective into very old age, Chatty playing up in the lineup, etc. To keep Guentzel as well in the short term we'd have to get rid of 1 or both of Kuzy/Koko. I truly wonder if Jarvis winds up being our long term 2C. I think he's fully capable

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'm still skeptical on whether I'd keep Necas and whether the team will. But I don't see much of a reason to publicly burn bridges by Waddell either, so that's a reasonable stance to take.

 

[spockBokk]

“Certainly keep” is an interesting choice of phrase. I’d love for them to figure out a way to keep Necas, just seems really hard to do if they also want to keep Guentzel.

Guentzel isn’t doing himself any favors though with his playoff performance so far.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

“Certainly keep” is an interesting choice of phrase. I’d love for them to figure out a way to keep Necas, just seems really hard to do if they also want to keep Guentzel.

Guentzel isn’t doing himself any favors though with his playoff performance so far.

Guentzel has been just fine this postseason. Right near PPG pace. Just because there hasn't been a lot of goals directly from him does not mean he hasn't been an impact player.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Guentzel has been just fine this postseason. Right near PPG pace. Just because there hasn't been a lot of goals directly from him does not mean he hasn't been an impact player.

He's been pretty awful the last few games. Last night, especially, was a very rough game for him. Didn't generate much offensively and was partially or directly responsible for goals 2 and 3 against.

Add in that his only goal was an empty-netter and we're still waiting for the "Playoff Jake" we were promised.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I've been fine with Guentzel's play outside of last night. He hasn't been a world beater yet, but he's been fine to good. I know that's not good enough for a lot of folks but I tend to judge players differently once you get to the playoffs. It's small sample sizes, against the same teams 4-7 games at a time, and players get hot and cold, and you get weird, random contributors, with increased injuries (and players playing through things that they probably shouldn't) and unusal intensity and the othe teams have that same shit going on all at the same chaotic time. I mostly want to be able look at each player during a series and pick out at least one of the four wins they contributed to in a meaningful way. You'll have some guys that show up for 2-3 wins in a series in an impactful way, some that only show up for 1, some that are relative non-factors until the next series or the next or the next. You just hope you get enough from the sum of all that to get those four wins. It's usually going to come from some combo of a couple of stars being rather good, and the randos like Martinook against the Devils last year, or Kuzy and Noesen against the Isles this year in any given series.

For Guentzel, he was a big part of the getting the game 2 comeback started with the assist and sealing the deal with empty netter. That, along with some other less impactful contributions, tends to make me feel perfectly fine about where he was. At some point, if we go where we want to go, he'll likely be one of the guys that has an impactful handful of games.

 

[spockBokk]

Guentzel has been just fine this postseason. Right near PPG pace. Just because there hasn't been a lot of goals directly from him does not mean he hasn't been an impact player.

We must be watching different players

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I'm still skeptical on whether I'd keep Necas and whether the team will. But I don't see much of a reason to publicly burn bridges by Waddell either, so that's a reasonable stance to take.

Necas is an RFA, so it's almost a de facto "we keep his rights" deal unless we lose them via trade or arbitration->UFA.

Let's suppose Waddell used anything less than confident language. He could have said "we hope to keep him but aren't sure." Just imagine him saying that in the middle of the playoffs. For the sake of Necas's game, we want him to feel like an integral part of the team. Furthermore, if you say "let's hope to keep him", then all the sudden his trade value goes down leaguewide. Like when a player's agent leaks that he won't re-sign with the team, or he'll only re-sign with a certain team, his trade value instantly decreases.

Waddell can only answer that question one way, but it doesn't reveal his true asset valuation for Martin Necas, which only the front office knows.

 

[chaz4hockey]

This excerpt from Walt Ruff's DM article is a little more encouraging:

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Seravalli has a top 50 contract projection article up the canes guys:

JG: 6 years x 8 million
Skjei: 6 x 7.4 mil
Pesce: 6 x 6.7 mil
Turbo 5 x 6.3 mil
Chatty: 3 x 2.7 mil
Martinook: 2 x 2.8 mil

 

[hblueridgegal]

Time to get paid.

 

[Chrispy]

Seravalli has a top 50 contract projection article up the canes guys:

JG: 6 years x 8 million
Skjei: 6 x 7.4 mil
Pesce: 6 x 6.7 mil
Turbo 5 x 6.3 mil
Chatty: 3 x 2.7 mil
Martinook: 2 x 2.8 mil

YES
Probably not
NO
Doubtful
Yes
Rod will veto the no

 

[Buenos Necas]

Seravalli has a top 50 contract projection article up the canes guys:

JG: 6 years x 8 million
Skjei: 6 x 7.4 mil
Pesce: 6 x 6.7 mil
Turbo 5 x 6.3 mil
Chatty: 3 x 2.7 mil
Martinook: 2 x 2.8 mil

Getting Guentzel and Chatty back for a combined $10.7m would be a real nice piece of business.

Especially compared to Turbo and Pesce coming in at $13m together.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Seravalli has a top 50 contract projection article up the canes guys:

JG: 6 years x 8 million
Skjei: 6 x 7.4 mil
Pesce: 6 x 6.7 mil
Turbo 5 x 6.3 mil
Chatty: 3 x 2.7 mil
Martinook: 2 x 2.8 mil

JG in a friggin heartbeat lol but that ain't happening
Skjei if not for Nikishin I'd keep on that deal but with Boom waiting in the wings I say no
Pesce NOPE, but some team would give him that
Turbo nope and I don't see any team giving him even close to that
Chatty in a heartbeat, easy
Martinook, he's at 1.8 now I don't see him getting a 1mil raise here, could maybe get that elsewhere if we choose to let him go but I think he stays for around 2mil/yr at most, could see a 3 year deal though

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm not that worried about this offseason. I know it's a large UFA class, but we know how this FO operates. They will creatively destruct parts of the roster in order to gradually incorporate guys like Morrow, Nikishin, and probably Nadeau and/or Unger Sorum in the coming years. How much our UFAs get paid IMO will depend on how we perform this postseason. I'm been quite steadfast on this, but I always thought that long-term extensions were on their way for both Jarvis and Necas. The Canes historically are willing to pay more early on RFAs to get value later on.