Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

htdoc

Registered User
Oct 30, 2018
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I think both sides are fine taking the risk of seeing how the playoffs go to see whether Jake G stays or goes UFA…. So far we have a Semin style super small sample size of good play and meshing with the top line. I think Jake has fit like a glove and for regular season games has been about as ideal a player for this system as we could hope for short of him also being 6’5” 240 and being able to steamroll players as well if he chose not to be as cerebral and skilled as he has shown….

But if he plays out of his mind in the playoffs, even if we have the best result, that will just increase the pressure to keep the band together etc….not reduce it… we know how this fanbase can be when they get attached to a player and how attached they will be to what he will have provided if the success continues in the playoffs…. And in the case of playoff successful Guentzel, we end up paying more and make him be the exception to our normal SOP for running the team given how rare he would be to bring on board…. I don’t doubt the crazy numbers we have seen thrown around would become the agent ask and hard push to get us to agree or lose him if that playoff success happens……And with that huge contract added to the other high dollar contracts we already have and future renewals we expect in another year, sacrifices would get made in other areas with our other UFAs and RFAs as a result…. Secretly it’s kind of perversely awesome that we have enough great players that we can’t fit them all under the cap and an owner that likely would pay above the cap to keep them if we could exceed it…. Different times than under previous ownership….

Unless it’s a great long term number, I think it’s entirely possible we see Jarvis on a bridge if they try to bring others back and don’t try to moneyball a bunch of replacements. I don’t think the number gets any lower the more we drag out the long term deal for him… but we might not be able to do Guentzel and Jarvis and all the other things we want to do if Jarvis agent numbers for 8 years is too high…. The kid has really developed and put in the work to be a more complete player and he does everything rod asks of him and he is a great fit for our system…. But he is still the same frame size and the playoffs will show if his goal success in the regular season will translate or if he will get knocked out of games being in bad spots and how he handles the different kind of hockey we are about to see….. I’m very curious to see how JAG handles playoff hockey as the Aho line has been neutralized a lot in previous years, especially on the road…. I’m hoping Guentzel allows them to score even with the different style of hockey they will face in the playoffs….
 
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Cardiac Jerks

Asinine & immoral
Jan 13, 2006
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Long Sault, Ontario
I broke my no named merch rule when i bought a Tshirt when kk scored those 2 goals on Montreal.

i guess i was the bad luck or good luck (depending on your POV) that kk may not stay around long.

Although its fanatic so you can barely tell its a canes shirt anymore
I have a Kotkaniemi jersey so if anything it’s my fault.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
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Jul 18, 2010
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It will be quite funny (and IMO interesting for the future of the roster) if Kotkaniemi is the one who breaks out this postseason. That's not an unrealistic possibility; people forget this, but he played quite a decent role in Montreal's Cinderella run not too long ago.

His style of play would seem to be better in the playoffs where his lack of ability to cleanly keep the puck on his stick is offset by everyone else’s inability to do that because it’s the playoffs and no one has time and space.
 

bleedgreen

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Dec 8, 2003
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But Fox was 99% to sign.

So doesn’t that mean Guentzel is more likely to sign than Fox?
99% vs optimistic vs we feel comfortable it’s not a problem….





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Chan790

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Sponsor
Jan 24, 2012
3,825
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Bingy town, NY
It will be quite funny (and IMO interesting for the future of the roster) if Kotkaniemi is the one who breaks out this postseason. That's not an unrealistic possibility; people forget this, but he played quite a decent role in Montreal's Cinderella run not too long ago.
I don't think it actually changes anything, except the return probably improves when we trade him.

He's too streaky/inconsistent to be the top-6 F we need him to be (having a bust-out playoffs would reinforce that, not disprove it) and he's an expensive, redundant player in a bottom-6 role.
 

mikeyfan

Registered User
Dec 27, 2018
2,762
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Mine was intentional to highlight "SeaBass", his nickname.

Yours was innocently accidental, with all kinds of resources at your disposal to get it right.
And my response was to show you that yes I messed up his name and you acted like it was the end of the world.

All is go, as I'm sure you are perfect and have never ever misspelled anything in your life. :rolleyes:
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,359
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He was nearly PPG through like 20 games. I seriously don't understand what happened to him upstairs to change that. I think he has a future if he can get his head sorted out, but I don't think it's gonna be with us unless he has that redemption arc in the playoffs. Just no room on a contending team dancing right at the cap to allow him to find himself for a couple more years.
Probably a hot streak with small sample size.

Career average before this season: 0.42 PPG
Career high before this season: 0.52 PPG (last season with the Canes).

Through 10 games: 1.0 PPG
Through 20 games: 0.7 PPG
Through 30 games: 0.5 PPG
Through 40 games: 0.43 PPG

So as the sample size got larger, his numbers normalized out to his career best and full career averages.

That said, he's certainly in an extended slump, particularly in the 2nd half of the season (10 points in last 40 games) that is worse than any of us expected so your point about getting it sorted out is valid.

He's not afraid to throw his body around, so hopefully he finds his game in the playoffs.
 
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